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Daniel L. Chen

Daniel L. Chen
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  • Is Facebook Really Worth $58 Billion, Maybe [View article]
    Jun 4, 2013. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Of The Day: Moody's [View article]
    Great article. I thought it was unlikely anything would come of the lawsuits, which seemed to be more of a scare tactic than anything else, thus presenting a great buying opportunity a few days after the news hit.. Both are high-margin businesses whose services are essentially "mandatory" in the finance sector. Plus, MHP recently got rid of its education division to Apollo.
    Apr 10, 2013. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Cannot Lie About Facebook [View article]
    I started using FB in high school, as did all my friends. I don't know how it is elsewhere, but I suspect it is the same: most of my classmates were super, SUPER active on FB because it was the only way to catch up on the socializing that they would have done in school but didn't have enough time for. So they used FB not for catching up (as adults do), but for outright socializing. Once we left high school for college and beyond, I noticed everyone using FB much less -- without the time constraints of high school, you build those relationships in person and use FB as a way to consolidate those relationships. But your eyes aren't glued to FB every time you're on the computer. So you are right, FB serves vastly different functions depending on the age of the user. Another way to look at this (and I am just speculating) is comparing ARPU among different age groups -- I suspect ARPU will be higher for the younger audience.
    Mar 16, 2013. 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Cannot Lie About Facebook [View article]
    Equating Facebook to Bernie Madoff doesn't work, sorry.
    Mar 16, 2013. 03:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Might Continue Its Growth Journey [View article]
    Facebook has incredibly low ad click-through rates...users have essentially learned to "ignore" the ads on the side. So no good there. And I don't see FB ever becoming a serious competitor to LNKD in professional networking. Sure, FB is good if you need to hire someone for casual or spontaneous work (such as driving you to the airport). I suppose it's possible to see FB integrate a separate professional networking arm but what happens when your boss feels the need to add you on the social networking arm as well? It's hard to keep your professional and social lives separate on the same platform.

    Regardless, I am long FB because Graph Search seems very promising and they will continue to post double digit growth for the next few years.
    Mar 16, 2013. 03:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Is 18.0% NOT 7.7% [View article]
    Apart from the somewhat misleading title (underemployment vs. unemployment figures), this was a great read. Makes you really wonder how much of this "growth" in the stock market is real.
    Mar 10, 2013. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: How Market Dynamics Have Created A Bubble [View article]
    I think we will see a pullback eventually, but not anytime in the near future. DDD has enough growth potential to sustain the hype of its current valuation. Short-term I am confident in another Q4 earnings report blowout; am long DDD call options.
    Feb 21, 2013. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
    Great article and I love how you analyzed it. Right now people are focusing too much on the hype (or lack of), esp. the mom-and-pop investors. I would dare say a majority of them don't understand the financials at all. Apple is a buy once you can get past the smokescreen.
    Feb 21, 2013. 04:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P (HPQ -1%), rather than Apple (AAPL -1.9%), might be to blame for Foxconn's hiring freeze, thinks UBS' Steve Milunovich. Milunovich, among the first to report of a major drop in iPhone build rates for the March quarter (a report vindicated by Apple's FQ2 guidance) says his sources indicate nothing has changed. Meanwhile, Jefferies' Peter Misek (previous) claims FQ2 iPhone build orders have fallen to just 20M-25M, but believes 5S builds will start in March. CRUS -5.1%. SWKS -2.3%. TQNT -2.6%. BRCM -1.6%. OVTI -3.1%. Update: H-P states its PC ops don't rely on the Shenzhen, China facility that has seen a hiring freeze. [View news story]
    Why does this necessarily have to be bad news? Couldn't it just be true that more workers returned after Chinese New Years, like Foxconn stated, hence fewer new hires? I also read somewhere that Foxconn is looking to make more of their manufacturing processes automated. This might actually be a good entry point for Apple.
    Feb 20, 2013. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Sales Tax Receipts Show Sales Tax Collection Impact [View article]
    Agreed, California also has a sizable Asian population too.
    Feb 20, 2013. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is LinkedIn Really Overvalued? [View article]
    "Also, the 51% earnings growth expected this year already trumps that of other big and expensive names such as Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Priceline (PCLN) combined."

    Yes, but it's much easier to grow when you're only bringing in $300m revenue for 2012, compared to $156 BILLION for AAPL, $50bn for GOOG, and $4bn for PCLN.

    "Also, for those who wish to dismiss LinkedIn via its hefty valuation, Amazon provides a glimpse that such buying can prove sustainable even without the support of sizable earnings."

    So is this a problem specific to AMZN or specific to a narrow subset of the tech sector as a whole? I say the latter. AMZN, NFLX, LNKD, FB et al are all way overpriced and going to come crashing sooner or later.
    Feb 19, 2013. 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's Rally May Be Over [View article]
    That seems like a reasonable assumption.
    Feb 13, 2013. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP) +1% AH on news it has increased the size of its credit facility by $300M to $1.8B. Also, the facility's accordion feature has been increased to $400M.  The hike comes amidst claims the cash-burning retailer is defaulting on the facility due to a technicality. (PR[View news story]
    JCP's new business model, the "store-within-a-store" model, is great, bringing in double the revenue per sq. feet compared to its old model. I just hope they can hang on long enough to see this fully implemented...investors are growing impatient.
    Feb 13, 2013. 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Netflix Escape Amazon's Grip? [View article]
    Interesting take Dana, I was not aware of their interdependence. Thanks for a great read.
    Feb 13, 2013. 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: I've Seen This Movie Before [View article]
    Congratulations on a great first article; couldn't have summed it up better. I'm looking forward to reading more in the future.

    From my consumer's standpoint, NFLX is growing a old very quickly. It pushes content out at a snail's pace, instead seeming to rely on older hit-shows like The Office and HIMYM. I don't bother checking the "New Releases" section anymore because there just isn't anything new, unless you could movies that came out a year ago as "new".
    Feb 13, 2013. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment