Seeking Alpha

bosco115

bosco115
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bosco115's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • PC shipments fell a stunning 8.3% Y/Y in Q3, estimates Gartner - that figure makes Q2's 0.1% drop look great by comparison, and is raising eyebrows even with all of the negative industry data that has emerged. Weak back-to-school sales and cautious retailer orders are blamed, though the tablet market's growth is hard to overlook. U.S. shipments -13.8% Y/Y (both consumer and corporate sales were weak), EMEA -8.7%, and Asia-Pac -5.6% (China's slowing growth had an effect). [View news story]
    Memory leaks on iOS are minimal compared to Android.

    Verizon has the best coverage in the US by far.

    The user interface of the iPhone is still the gold standard that has been replicated by Google and all Android vendors.

    Prior to the iPhone, smartphones shipped with full keyboards, D-pads, and navigation buttons. Now they're all as minimal as the iPhone. They don't need to add buttons.

    The user interfaces of iOS and OS X are different because they use different input mechanisms. What works best for a capacitive touchscreen may not be ideal for a touchpad or mouse.

    The patent litigation represents a company that holds the intellectual property rights to multi-touch gestures and stated back in 2007, "...and boy have we patented it," thanks to companies that so desperately copied the iPod's clickwheel and fell over themselves to copy the iPhone's multitouch, as predicted.

    Their crap is built by the same company (Foxconn) that builds products for HP, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, and dozens of other vendors. The chief complaint of Foxconnn workers is not enough opportunities for overtime.

    Any other BS you'd like to shoot off? Because none of these are good reasons for why AAPL isn't a good investment, nor why Apple's products are in any way inferior to the competition.
    Oct 11, 2012. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The decline of the Global PMI into contraction territory for much of the year has yet to bring global equities along with it. Recent history suggests (chart) it might before long. [View news story]
    These overlaid graphs are useless. You can set either scale to make the data look hyper-sensitive or highly correlated. What matters is percent change, not some arbitrary window.

    This is the sort of stuff that scares retail investors out of the market just in time for them to miss a 5-10% rally.
    Oct 2, 2012. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Reemergence: Should Apple Be Worried? [View article]
    AAPL has invested about $3B into R&D in the past year. That's about a third of Nokia's entire market cap.

    Nokia investors are the worst. Any other baseless accusations you'd like to make up?
    Sep 29, 2012. 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Imminent Liquidity Crunch And Share Price Collapse [View article]
    Completely faulty logic. The problem with Amazon isn't just that growth is slowing. It's that it simply makes too little in earnings compared to its outrageous valuation. On a P/E basis, it's astronomical - past 300.

    On the contrary, look at the PEG for AAPL - it's still 0.6 with a P/E of 16. That's a good, undervalued number for a company still growing earnings in double digits. There is no reason for AMZN to be valued at 300 P/E, compared to AAPL valued at 16 P/E, considering the growth rates for both companies.

    As an investor, we buy companies to take a share of the earnings. Whenever anyone has been quoted as saying something like "earnings don't matter" or "valuation doesn't matter", it's a sign of extreme froth. Thus, bubble alert.
    Sep 24, 2012. 04:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Imminent Liquidity Crunch And Share Price Collapse [View article]
    "They don't care about earnings..."

    Bubble alert.
    Sep 24, 2012. 01:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks With A Sharp Increase In Short Interest [View article]
    What about those last year that bought at $9/share? Where do they fit into the tug-of-war?

    Anybody can pick an arbitrary date range and claim victory. Being long this stock has been a recipe for disaster for years.
    Sep 15, 2012. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. [View news story]
    "Comparing duration risk on a 30-year fixed income instrument yielding 3% to the risk of owning Apple. That's a good one. :)"

    Would you buy the debt of one entity borrowing $1,600 billion annually, or the share of another entity generating $50 billion each year in cash? The first yields 3%, the second yields 1.5%.
    Sep 15, 2012. 02:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. [View news story]
    If you think treasuries are overvalued, short them. Why not buy TBF?

    You can do the same thing with any stock. Do you know what AAPL would look like if it dropped to 2011 levels? Answer: -55%. Cool, thanks for the info. But will it actually reach that level in the near future? If so, why don't you short AAPL?

    I would love to short TLT or buy TBF. But ZIRP/QE has distorted fundamentals, and this market cannot be trusted.
    Sep 15, 2012. 11:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The rave reviews for Tesla Motors' (TSLA +2.9%) Model S aren't quite done pouring in after Motor Trend just returned from a Vegas-to-L.A. test drive that proved both the 265 mpg equivalent rating and zero-to-60 mph acceleration in under six seconds are valid. The company has the highly-anticipated Model X slated for 2014 if production wrinkles are worked out. As for cash burn, Elon Musk says as long as there aren't a "bunch of screw-ups," the automaker should be in good financial shape. [View news story]
    I'd like to bring up two points to counter this. Tesla's market plan since the beginning has been to sell a series of cars increasing in volume and decreasing in margin. As I originally read it, they wanted to start with a low volume, high margin sports car that would appeal to enthusiasts, early adopters, and those generally unconcerned with price (similar to Porsche). The second was to be a mid-range luxury car at mid-volume, mid-margin distribution (similar to BMW) using revenue and knowledge gained from the first vehicle. The third was to be a high volume, low margin car intended for mass adoption (similar to Toyota) using expertise from the first two models.

    Somewhere along the line, they decided to throw the Model X into the mix, since I don't believe this to be the Corolla equivalent for Tesla. But from their execution and how I've originally understood their business plan, they seem to be sticking to this very well. Therefore, these vehicles don't have to provide instantaneous savings over ICE vehicles for the company to survive - at least not yet. However, for long-term survival, they must get there within a reasonable amount of time. I think this is possible.

    Second, I'm generally against corporate welfare, but this is becoming an exercise in Econ 101 Game Theory. China is subsidizing Kandi and others to build electric cars and sell them to cities in pilot programs. Other countries are doing the same. While I agree that the best course of action is for nobody to subsidize, the fact remains that other countries are doing so. So everyone must subsidize to remain competitive.

    Also, I'd like to throw out that I'd be willing to put my life savings behind Elon Musk. Seeing the Dragon launch has affirmed that for me. The man is brilliant.
    Sep 7, 2012. 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The rave reviews for Tesla Motors' (TSLA +2.9%) Model S aren't quite done pouring in after Motor Trend just returned from a Vegas-to-L.A. test drive that proved both the 265 mpg equivalent rating and zero-to-60 mph acceleration in under six seconds are valid. The company has the highly-anticipated Model X slated for 2014 if production wrinkles are worked out. As for cash burn, Elon Musk says as long as there aren't a "bunch of screw-ups," the automaker should be in good financial shape. [View news story]
    Do you have a hard-on for Tesla? You're the same troll I responded to last time:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...


    "Coal is burned in central power plants in a Rankine Cycle with 33% thermal efficiency, compared to a gasoline engine Otto Cycle with ~19% efficiency.

    Yes, coal powered cars are cleaner than gasoline powered cars. And if your local generation supplier gets electricity from nuclear, it is truly emission-free energy.

    Calm your rhetoric."


    "You did a nice job ignoring the facts I presented above and instead chose to stick to the talking points.

    I typically vote Republican, and I'm also an engineer. I know the science and technology behind these vehicles and the distribution limitations. Any new transportation technology not running a petroleum liquid fuel will require an entirely separate distribution system. Natural gas has good penetration into many homes for heating, as well as many industrial pipelines, but it's not in every home. Compressing or liquefying natural gas is extremely inefficient.

    On the contrary, electricity exists in every home. As such, people who wish to use a personal vehicle for small trips under 300 miles (round trip) from home can buy an electric car like the Tesla Model S. Longer trips will require a new network of recharging stations. This is easier than a new network of natural gas refueling stations.

    There are pros and cons to each technology. Stop spreading your rhetoric like you know what you're talking about. You don't know shit."
    Sep 7, 2012. 05:38 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Handled Its IPO Exactly Right [View article]
    Of course Mark Cuban holds this opinion. He made billions by selling his now-worthless company to Yahoo at the peak of the bubble. He executed it to perfection.
    Sep 4, 2012. 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    Equities are moving, either in response to, or in conjunction with, interest rates. Therefore, holding interest rates artificially low will allow stocks to appreciate artificially high.

    None of this is misleading. Once interest rates rise and return back to normal, stocks should correct commesurate with that. The question is - what premium is reasonable for equities given a below-average interest rate? And what penalty is reasonable given an above-average interest rate?
    Sep 4, 2012. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    I can respect the amount of work it takes to draw these conclusions, but I think this is all bullshit. You're trying to correlate stock prices moving on macro trends with technical analysis. It can't be done. How was someone supposed to use this type of analysis in 1939 to predict the movement of stocks before WWII broke out? Do you realize how insane this is?

    Couldn't work then, can't work now. Long-term movement is dependent on macroeconomics, not extrapolated technical charting.
    Sep 4, 2012. 10:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    This is exactly what I was thinking after I read the article. By traditional measures, the market is fairly priced to overvalued. However, if you take interest rates into account, the valuation becomes more reasonable.

    I overlaid interest rates with the inflation-adjusted PE-10 graph provided. There is nearly a perfect inverse fit between 1965-2012, both trending towards higher valuations and lower interest rates.

    Therefore, the prevailing interest rate must be included in any analysis of market valuation. I feel like this graph is one step away from being able to give us accurate buy/sell signals.

    Any ideas how to incorporate this? Maybe a percent deviation from a 10-year average interest rate? Example - if interest rates are 1% lower than the 10-year trailing average of 5% (20% deviation), then the acceptable inflation-adjusted PE-10 can be higher by 20%?
    Sep 4, 2012. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A leading expert of monetary policy is urging the Fed to reform its policy guidance to make clear it will hold interest rates close to zero, even after the economy starts to recover. Columbia's Michael Woodford told officials they need to better explain the reason behind any rate forecast, because current guidance could be having a perverse impact of simply implying that the economy is going to be weak until the end of 2014, which will not entice businesses or consumers to increase spending. [View news story]
    This isn't reddit.
    Sep 1, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
202 Comments
417 Likes