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bosco115

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  • "Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. [View news story]
    "Comparing duration risk on a 30-year fixed income instrument yielding 3% to the risk of owning Apple. That's a good one. :)"

    Would you buy the debt of one entity borrowing $1,600 billion annually, or the share of another entity generating $50 billion each year in cash? The first yields 3%, the second yields 1.5%.
    Sep 15 02:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. [View news story]
    If you think treasuries are overvalued, short them. Why not buy TBF?

    You can do the same thing with any stock. Do you know what AAPL would look like if it dropped to 2011 levels? Answer: -55%. Cool, thanks for the info. But will it actually reach that level in the near future? If so, why don't you short AAPL?

    I would love to short TLT or buy TBF. But ZIRP/QE has distorted fundamentals, and this market cannot be trusted.
    Sep 15 11:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The rave reviews for Tesla Motors' (TSLA +2.9%) Model S aren't quite done pouring in after Motor Trend just returned from a Vegas-to-L.A. test drive that proved both the 265 mpg equivalent rating and zero-to-60 mph acceleration in under six seconds are valid. The company has the highly-anticipated Model X slated for 2014 if production wrinkles are worked out. As for cash burn, Elon Musk says as long as there aren't a "bunch of screw-ups," the automaker should be in good financial shape. [View news story]
    I'd like to bring up two points to counter this. Tesla's market plan since the beginning has been to sell a series of cars increasing in volume and decreasing in margin. As I originally read it, they wanted to start with a low volume, high margin sports car that would appeal to enthusiasts, early adopters, and those generally unconcerned with price (similar to Porsche). The second was to be a mid-range luxury car at mid-volume, mid-margin distribution (similar to BMW) using revenue and knowledge gained from the first vehicle. The third was to be a high volume, low margin car intended for mass adoption (similar to Toyota) using expertise from the first two models.

    Somewhere along the line, they decided to throw the Model X into the mix, since I don't believe this to be the Corolla equivalent for Tesla. But from their execution and how I've originally understood their business plan, they seem to be sticking to this very well. Therefore, these vehicles don't have to provide instantaneous savings over ICE vehicles for the company to survive - at least not yet. However, for long-term survival, they must get there within a reasonable amount of time. I think this is possible.

    Second, I'm generally against corporate welfare, but this is becoming an exercise in Econ 101 Game Theory. China is subsidizing Kandi and others to build electric cars and sell them to cities in pilot programs. Other countries are doing the same. While I agree that the best course of action is for nobody to subsidize, the fact remains that other countries are doing so. So everyone must subsidize to remain competitive.

    Also, I'd like to throw out that I'd be willing to put my life savings behind Elon Musk. Seeing the Dragon launch has affirmed that for me. The man is brilliant.
    Sep 7 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The rave reviews for Tesla Motors' (TSLA +2.9%) Model S aren't quite done pouring in after Motor Trend just returned from a Vegas-to-L.A. test drive that proved both the 265 mpg equivalent rating and zero-to-60 mph acceleration in under six seconds are valid. The company has the highly-anticipated Model X slated for 2014 if production wrinkles are worked out. As for cash burn, Elon Musk says as long as there aren't a "bunch of screw-ups," the automaker should be in good financial shape. [View news story]
    Do you have a hard-on for Tesla? You're the same troll I responded to last time:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...


    "Coal is burned in central power plants in a Rankine Cycle with 33% thermal efficiency, compared to a gasoline engine Otto Cycle with ~19% efficiency.

    Yes, coal powered cars are cleaner than gasoline powered cars. And if your local generation supplier gets electricity from nuclear, it is truly emission-free energy.

    Calm your rhetoric."


    "You did a nice job ignoring the facts I presented above and instead chose to stick to the talking points.

    I typically vote Republican, and I'm also an engineer. I know the science and technology behind these vehicles and the distribution limitations. Any new transportation technology not running a petroleum liquid fuel will require an entirely separate distribution system. Natural gas has good penetration into many homes for heating, as well as many industrial pipelines, but it's not in every home. Compressing or liquefying natural gas is extremely inefficient.

    On the contrary, electricity exists in every home. As such, people who wish to use a personal vehicle for small trips under 300 miles (round trip) from home can buy an electric car like the Tesla Model S. Longer trips will require a new network of recharging stations. This is easier than a new network of natural gas refueling stations.

    There are pros and cons to each technology. Stop spreading your rhetoric like you know what you're talking about. You don't know shit."
    Sep 7 05:38 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Handled Its IPO Exactly Right [View article]
    Of course Mark Cuban holds this opinion. He made billions by selling his now-worthless company to Yahoo at the peak of the bubble. He executed it to perfection.
    Sep 4 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    Equities are moving, either in response to, or in conjunction with, interest rates. Therefore, holding interest rates artificially low will allow stocks to appreciate artificially high.

    None of this is misleading. Once interest rates rise and return back to normal, stocks should correct commesurate with that. The question is - what premium is reasonable for equities given a below-average interest rate? And what penalty is reasonable given an above-average interest rate?
    Sep 4 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    I can respect the amount of work it takes to draw these conclusions, but I think this is all bullshit. You're trying to correlate stock prices moving on macro trends with technical analysis. It can't be done. How was someone supposed to use this type of analysis in 1939 to predict the movement of stocks before WWII broke out? Do you realize how insane this is?

    Couldn't work then, can't work now. Long-term movement is dependent on macroeconomics, not extrapolated technical charting.
    Sep 4 10:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    This is exactly what I was thinking after I read the article. By traditional measures, the market is fairly priced to overvalued. However, if you take interest rates into account, the valuation becomes more reasonable.

    I overlaid interest rates with the inflation-adjusted PE-10 graph provided. There is nearly a perfect inverse fit between 1965-2012, both trending towards higher valuations and lower interest rates.

    Therefore, the prevailing interest rate must be included in any analysis of market valuation. I feel like this graph is one step away from being able to give us accurate buy/sell signals.

    Any ideas how to incorporate this? Maybe a percent deviation from a 10-year average interest rate? Example - if interest rates are 1% lower than the 10-year trailing average of 5% (20% deviation), then the acceptable inflation-adjusted PE-10 can be higher by 20%?
    Sep 4 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A leading expert of monetary policy is urging the Fed to reform its policy guidance to make clear it will hold interest rates close to zero, even after the economy starts to recover. Columbia's Michael Woodford told officials they need to better explain the reason behind any rate forecast, because current guidance could be having a perverse impact of simply implying that the economy is going to be weak until the end of 2014, which will not entice businesses or consumers to increase spending. [View news story]
    This isn't reddit.
    Sep 1 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the end of Q2, Verizon Wireless' (VZ, VOD) 4G LTE network covered 230M people. That puts Big Red well ahead of AT&T (T) and (especially) Sprint (S) when it comes to 4G availability, and leads Jefferies to think the arrival of a 4G iPhone (AAPL) could be a "game changer" for the carrier. The firm thinks Verizon could sell 5M next-gen iPhone units in September, and a whopping 15M in Q4. Wells Fargo argued yesterday that a mass exodus of AT&T iPhone subs is unlikely[View news story]
    Hey, remember the time Sprint built out a 4G WiMax network, then realized it was shit and scrapped the whole thing in favor of an LTE buildout, in which they're now behind?

    Yeah, I remember that.
    Aug 31 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The war on soda: A local ballot measure in Richmond, California to tax soda drinks starts to draw national attention in advance of November's election. If the measure passes, Richmond would be the first city in the country that placed a per-ounce tax on sugary drinks and could set off a wave of copycats. Meanwhile in NYC, details on Mayor Bloomberg's anti-obesity plan will be unveiled in less than two weeks and will surely have sugary drinks in focus. [View news story]
    Great idea. Let's tax steaks next. Bastards with their fatty diets increasing healthcare costs for us all. After that, let's tax all meats since a vegetarian/vegan diet is shown to be extremely healthy. Slippery slope be damned!

    "But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother."
    Aug 31 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration releases its final fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, requiring each automaker's fleet to reach an average 54.5 miles/gallon by 2025, nearly doubling current levels. To meet the standard, automakers will need to introduce new technologies and sell more alternative fuel vehicles. Critics say the rules will add thousands to new car prices[View news story]
    Chicken or the egg. You're saying they don't own cars because there is so much public transportation. Rather, there is an abundance of public transportation because cars are too expensive.

    Regardless, the result is Europeans travel less than Americans. There's a reason why the automobile (or Harley) is a symbol of American freedom.
    Aug 30 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration releases its final fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, requiring each automaker's fleet to reach an average 54.5 miles/gallon by 2025, nearly doubling current levels. To meet the standard, automakers will need to introduce new technologies and sell more alternative fuel vehicles. Critics say the rules will add thousands to new car prices[View news story]
    "That does not seem to stop the Europeans from buying cars."

    Are you kidding me? Yes it does. The car ownership rate for Europeans is much lower than for Americans. If anyone does own a car, it's a 10 year old hatchback.
    Aug 29 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The debate about whether or not raising taxes on the rich would increase government revenue, is "beside the point," writes John Carney on CNBC. The real reason to hike taxes is to fight inflation, but if and when it exists, the measure possibly wouldn't cure that problem either. "The proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy just don’t add up," Carney writes. [View news story]
    You mean reward those employers by... creating a loophole in the tax structure so they pay a lower rate?

    And now you know why we got in this mess in the first place.
    Aug 26 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Is A High-Dividend Stock That's Still Undervalued [View article]
    Just read the sentence before, and you'll see Cisco's quarterly dividend is $0.14/share. That's a 2.94% yield, which is larger than Microsoft or Corning.

    The reason why you are seeing varied numbers is because Cisco just had a quarterly earnings release and dividend announcement, and many sites haven't had the chance to update their data yet.
    Aug 18 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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