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bosco115

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  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    This is exactly what I was thinking after I read the article. By traditional measures, the market is fairly priced to overvalued. However, if you take interest rates into account, the valuation becomes more reasonable.

    I overlaid interest rates with the inflation-adjusted PE-10 graph provided. There is nearly a perfect inverse fit between 1965-2012, both trending towards higher valuations and lower interest rates.

    Therefore, the prevailing interest rate must be included in any analysis of market valuation. I feel like this graph is one step away from being able to give us accurate buy/sell signals.

    Any ideas how to incorporate this? Maybe a percent deviation from a 10-year average interest rate? Example - if interest rates are 1% lower than the 10-year trailing average of 5% (20% deviation), then the acceptable inflation-adjusted PE-10 can be higher by 20%?
    Sep 4, 2012. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A leading expert of monetary policy is urging the Fed to reform its policy guidance to make clear it will hold interest rates close to zero, even after the economy starts to recover. Columbia's Michael Woodford told officials they need to better explain the reason behind any rate forecast, because current guidance could be having a perverse impact of simply implying that the economy is going to be weak until the end of 2014, which will not entice businesses or consumers to increase spending. [View news story]
    This isn't reddit.
    Sep 1, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the end of Q2, Verizon Wireless' (VZ, VOD) 4G LTE network covered 230M people. That puts Big Red well ahead of AT&T (T) and (especially) Sprint (S) when it comes to 4G availability, and leads Jefferies to think the arrival of a 4G iPhone (AAPL) could be a "game changer" for the carrier. The firm thinks Verizon could sell 5M next-gen iPhone units in September, and a whopping 15M in Q4. Wells Fargo argued yesterday that a mass exodus of AT&T iPhone subs is unlikely[View news story]
    Hey, remember the time Sprint built out a 4G WiMax network, then realized it was shit and scrapped the whole thing in favor of an LTE buildout, in which they're now behind?

    Yeah, I remember that.
    Aug 31, 2012. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The war on soda: A local ballot measure in Richmond, California to tax soda drinks starts to draw national attention in advance of November's election. If the measure passes, Richmond would be the first city in the country that placed a per-ounce tax on sugary drinks and could set off a wave of copycats. Meanwhile in NYC, details on Mayor Bloomberg's anti-obesity plan will be unveiled in less than two weeks and will surely have sugary drinks in focus. [View news story]
    Great idea. Let's tax steaks next. Bastards with their fatty diets increasing healthcare costs for us all. After that, let's tax all meats since a vegetarian/vegan diet is shown to be extremely healthy. Slippery slope be damned!

    "But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother."
    Aug 31, 2012. 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration releases its final fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, requiring each automaker's fleet to reach an average 54.5 miles/gallon by 2025, nearly doubling current levels. To meet the standard, automakers will need to introduce new technologies and sell more alternative fuel vehicles. Critics say the rules will add thousands to new car prices[View news story]
    Chicken or the egg. You're saying they don't own cars because there is so much public transportation. Rather, there is an abundance of public transportation because cars are too expensive.

    Regardless, the result is Europeans travel less than Americans. There's a reason why the automobile (or Harley) is a symbol of American freedom.
    Aug 30, 2012. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration releases its final fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, requiring each automaker's fleet to reach an average 54.5 miles/gallon by 2025, nearly doubling current levels. To meet the standard, automakers will need to introduce new technologies and sell more alternative fuel vehicles. Critics say the rules will add thousands to new car prices[View news story]
    "That does not seem to stop the Europeans from buying cars."

    Are you kidding me? Yes it does. The car ownership rate for Europeans is much lower than for Americans. If anyone does own a car, it's a 10 year old hatchback.
    Aug 29, 2012. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The debate about whether or not raising taxes on the rich would increase government revenue, is "beside the point," writes John Carney on CNBC. The real reason to hike taxes is to fight inflation, but if and when it exists, the measure possibly wouldn't cure that problem either. "The proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy just don’t add up," Carney writes. [View news story]
    You mean reward those employers by... creating a loophole in the tax structure so they pay a lower rate?

    And now you know why we got in this mess in the first place.
    Aug 26, 2012. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Is A High-Dividend Stock That's Still Undervalued [View article]
    Just read the sentence before, and you'll see Cisco's quarterly dividend is $0.14/share. That's a 2.94% yield, which is larger than Microsoft or Corning.

    The reason why you are seeing varied numbers is because Cisco just had a quarterly earnings release and dividend announcement, and many sites haven't had the chance to update their data yet.
    Aug 18, 2012. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If There Was One Stock That I Would Buy And Hold, This Is It -- 1st Anniversary [View article]
    So let me get this straight. You've been long AAPL since the mid-90's, yet you're against a buy-and-hold strategy?
    Aug 15, 2012. 03:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) shares jump 5.6% premarket after CEO Stephen Elop says the phone maker will launch a Windows 8 smartphone "relatively near term," and doesn't deny that it could be at the company's trade show in Helsinki on Sept. 5-6. That's a week before an Apple event on Sept. 12, when it could unveil a new iPhone. [View news story]
    Don't worry, you're in the company of many, many others who are negative on Nokia and unwilling to admit the number they bought at. Have fun convincing others a stock at 14.79 P/E and 0.64 PEG is overvalued.

    Disclosure: Long AAPL @$329.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) shares jump 5.6% premarket after CEO Stephen Elop says the phone maker will launch a Windows 8 smartphone "relatively near term," and doesn't deny that it could be at the company's trade show in Helsinki on Sept. 5-6. That's a week before an Apple event on Sept. 12, when it could unveil a new iPhone. [View news story]
    Let me clarify. Charles Santerre called me out and criticized me as a bad prognosticator. So I went to HIS article and cited HIS long position at HIS publish date. I then used that as evidence that he has no business criticizing me if his investment picks have been so wrong. I did not choose that date - Charles Santerre did. I would recommend understand the context before commenting.

    Also, I would love it if everyone here posted their cost basis on Nokia (NOK). So many people are citing the limited timeframe in which an investment in Nokia is now positive. I'd love to hear how much you all have profited from this! And stunningly, I won't hear a word from anyone who has been long from $9+. Just like every other time I ask this.
    Aug 15, 2012. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) shares jump 5.6% premarket after CEO Stephen Elop says the phone maker will launch a Windows 8 smartphone "relatively near term," and doesn't deny that it could be at the company's trade show in Helsinki on Sept. 5-6. That's a week before an Apple event on Sept. 12, when it could unveil a new iPhone. [View news story]
    You're the one calling me out for not being able to predict the future. So I went off the one data point you provided with your article and long disclosure. And it was a bad call. These are the facts, and I'm really not sure what you're complaining about.

    Please, by all means, enlighten me with your cost-basis for your Nokia investment. Considering the stock was on its way down for years before the date of that article, I can only assume your cost-basis is even higher. Also, if you'd like to compare 5-20 year charts for Nokia and Apple, let me know. I'll gladly help.

    If your investment in a company is going against you, don't sit there and try to convince others why you're right. Re-evaluate the investment and find out why you were wrong. Pro-tip: don't promise others with a successful investment that it will ultimately fail. It makes you look bitter.
    Aug 15, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) shares jump 5.6% premarket after CEO Stephen Elop says the phone maker will launch a Windows 8 smartphone "relatively near term," and doesn't deny that it could be at the company's trade show in Helsinki on Sept. 5-6. That's a week before an Apple event on Sept. 12, when it could unveil a new iPhone. [View news story]
    My comment was meant that the product that you find most useful does not correspond to good investment advice or a company that will continue to earn profits. Sony, Sega, Rio, MySpace, and Palm are all shadows of their former selves.

    How Microsoft Can Put Nokia's Recover In High Gear by Charles Santerre, Published May 29, 2012. Author discloses he is long Nokia (http://bit.ly/9V8R2A). Closing price that day was $2.95. Current price is $2.49 (-16%). Meanwhile, Apple (http://bit.ly/pFSoX2) closed May 29 at $572.27. Current price is $631.69 (+10%).

    That's a 26% differential in returns between your investment thesis and the one you deride. I don't think you're very well qualified to judge others based on your history.

    You'll learn.
    Aug 15, 2012. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK) shares jump 5.6% premarket after CEO Stephen Elop says the phone maker will launch a Windows 8 smartphone "relatively near term," and doesn't deny that it could be at the company's trade show in Helsinki on Sept. 5-6. That's a week before an Apple event on Sept. 12, when it could unveil a new iPhone. [View news story]
    The whole world is gaga about VHS, VHS, VHS. I'm sick of it. Bought a Betamax and am very satisfied.

    The whole world is gaga about PS2, PS2, PS2. I'm sick of it. Bought a Dreamcast and am very satisfied.

    The whole world is gaga about iPod, iPod, iPod. I'm sick of it. Bought a Rio and am very satisfied.

    The whole world is gaga about Facebook. I'm sick of it. Made a MySpace and am very satisfied.

    The whole world is gaga about iPhone, iPhone, iPhone. I'm sick of it. Bought a Palm Pre and am very satisfied.


    That's great, but none of this is good investment advice. Go to Gizmodo or some other site where a bunch of teenagers are discussing the superiority of their phone. This is an investment site, and Apple (AAPL) is +67% in the past year. Your comment is unhelpful.
    Aug 15, 2012. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint (S) CEO Dan Hesse says he welcomes mobile consolidation in the U.S. ... as long as it doesn't involve AT&T and Verizon, whom (like co-workers) he accuses of being duopolists. Hesse also claims once more he has no regrets about committing to $15B worth of iPhone purchases, and boasts Sprint has been able to shut down call centers by offering better customer service. Hesse struck a deal to acquire MetroPCS (PCS) in February, but was shot down by his board. [View news story]
    The BLS and other agencies are independent government entities. They don't care who is in office. This is evidenced by the fact that they have been using the same reporting methodologies for unemployment and other statistics for decades. Nobody is hiding anything. You can freely look up the U-6 rate at any time, if that's your preferred metric. You can even look at them without seasonal adjustments.

    But the facts are much less interesting than the hysteria, right?

    I have no idea how you paid $400/mo for two smartphones. I've had an iPhone on AT&T since 2007 - it's never been more than $105/mo. No discounts, no promotional rates, no exceptions. I can add a second iPhone for an additional $70/mo. Congratulations - you're spending the same amount!
    Aug 9, 2012. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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