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  • The Case For Cyclicals In A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Monsanto (MON) is yielding 1.36%. DuPont (DD) is yielding 3.5%. Monsanto will have to increase its dividend for many, many years to catch up to the big dividends that are paid out every year by DuPont.

    Dividend growth or not, yield still matters.
    Aug 3 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    They already tried that with Ping. It's a fad, and there is very little money to be made. Everything that is great about social networking can be integrated into all of their devices for free. Microsoft, meanwhile, decides to buy Skype for almost $10B.

    Diversification is not always a positive. Take a look at GE. They almost diversified themselves into bankruptcy. Or Microsoft - diversifying themselves into complete tech irrelevance. Or Cisco.
    Jul 31 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    The answer to the first question is yes. The answer to the second question is yes.

    Right now, the market prices Apple as a smartphone company. The iPhone continues its domestic and international expansion, and there is still more room for growth. But the iPad sales are accelerating. As the tablet gets more powerful, PC's are needed less. The entire PC/laptop/netbook market is being cannibalized by the iPad. Even if Apple never invents another device and only iterates these two products, the growth of the iPad alone will drive overall revenue and earnings growth. Nearly all Fortune 500 companies are deploying the iPad. So yes, this can continue without new product lines.

    Meanwhile, you basically get the rest of the company for free because it is so undervalued. Mac is showing the only growth in the PC industry. Retina MacBooks are unable to keep up with demand. The legacy iPod business still generates free cash. The services division is profitable with the App Store, iTunes, iCloud, and iBooks. Vertical integration support companies are there (software, hardware, supply chain). And you get the research division that is betting on AppleTV.

    You're bearish because you think they can't keep coming up with hits. But the stock is already undervalued even when you only consider the current product lineup and 2013 sales.

    And then you can take the next step - what if it DOES make another blockbuster? Will you then say, "Okay, NOW they'll stop innovating!"
    Jul 31 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    Wow, up 67% this week! That's amazing! That means its at a price level not seen since... late June. Incredible performance.

    Regarding expectations, Apple whiffed on earnings last week. The stock is higher now than it was before earnings. Explain how that works if the expectations are so delicate?

    You're treating this stock like it's Netflix or Palm. It's a $600B gorilla. It's the biggest company on Earth. And it's valued at 13.75x earnings, but still growing in double digits. This is overvalued?

    My guess is you see the high $600 price tag on the stock and think it's outlandish. But that sub-$10 price tag on Nokia was a total bargain, wasn't it?
    Jul 31 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeremy Siegel fires back at Bill Gross, saying the bond guru is totally wrong about stocks. "The cult of equity" is not dying, Siegel says. "I will grant that the last 10-12 years have been poor years," Siegel says. But we started from "the most overvalued market that we had in the last century." (video)  [View news story]
    Read The Death of Equities. They made the same point in the article - that investors across the board had taken huge amounts of money out of stocks for the decade prior to 1979.

    Retail investors are a contrary indicator. As the market continues its march towards new all-time highs, retail investors will remain on the sidelines until the market has moved comfortably higher. Then they will pile into equities just in time for it to correct.

    Everybody tries to outsmart the market. Just leave it alone - buy and hold. Equities are going to keep increasing because we are still experiencing global growth driven by American multinationals selling products to developing markets.
    Jul 31 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    Tack, GaltMachine, and Luke Tomasello all in one thread? We got ourselves a bona-fide anti-Apple circlejerk!
    Jul 31 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeremy Siegel fires back at Bill Gross, saying the bond guru is totally wrong about stocks. "The cult of equity" is not dying, Siegel says. "I will grant that the last 10-12 years have been poor years," Siegel says. But we started from "the most overvalued market that we had in the last century." (video)  [View news story]
    This whole scenario reads exactly like The Death of Equities in Aug 1979. Wrong time to be long-term bearish.

    Expectations are already rock bottom. Imagine if the market gains any sort of confidence. Boom.
    Jul 31 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB -4.9%) tumbles to new lows; shares are now down 42% from their $38 IPO price. The decline comes after Bernstein's Carlos Kirjner provides a lukewarm upgrade to Market Perform. Kirjner values Facebook's ad business at $19/share, and everything else at a mere $4/share. Moreover, he's worried about a decline in European ad rates (ed: ad rates rose elsewhere), and a share lock-up expiration that begins in August, and will increase Facebook's float by 276% by November. ZNGA -2.3%.  [View news story]
    This has nothing to do with the 99% or the 1%. This has everything to do with an overhyped stock that you (and you alone) decided to purchase. You bought into it, hoping for an easy pop and a quick sale, and you got burned.

    You have nobody to blame but yourself for investing in this overvalued, overhyped pig. Take personal responsibility and strive to do better next time. End of story.
    Jul 31 06:20 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    How's your Nokia (NOK) investment working out, Luke Tomasello? If you were so ridiculously wrong on that call, why in the world should I listen to you now?

    Fact is, you guys like a phone or operating system more than the iPhone. Fantastic. You have an opinion. Where you're losing me, (and obviously yourselves since you're losing money on NOK) is translating that into investment advice.

    The iPhone has lived under the constant fear of a better competitor since the Motorola Droid, HTC Evo, Samsung Galaxy, or the T-Mobile HTC myTouch 4G Supercalifragilisticex... MoreNamesMakesACoolerDevice with Google. It hasn't done anything to stop Apple, and whole companies and industries are folding when they stand in the way. Palm, HP, Dell, RIM, Nokia, Motorola, HTC, etc. These guys were mowed down to a shadow of their former selves in the face of the Apple juggernaut.

    Look at Apple (AAPL)'s stock chart. Look at its earnings growth. Look at its P/E. Look at its PEG. Look at the surveys showing unbelievable pent-up demand for the iPhone 5. Draw your own conclusions at your own risk, because mine have been wildly profitable.
    Jul 31 06:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Facebook Earnings Review: Long-Term Potential Is Fully Intact, A Buying Opportunity Is At Hand [View article]
    I'd like to point out that Facebook grew revenue 32% YoY, and Apple grew revenue 22% YoY. Meanwhile, FB has a P/E of 82 and AAPL has a P/E of 13.75.

    I'm puzzled as to why Facebook deserves my limited investment funds until it shows a more reasonable valuation.
    Jul 29 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Google's (GOOG) fiber service: Though it's charging $70/month for standalone 1 Gbps connections, Google says it will offer free 5 Mbps connections (save for a $300 installation fee) for 7 years, in the hope that users will upgrade. Time Warner Cable (TWC) might have something to be worried about after all. So might Google investors if the company chooses to expand the service, and its engineers don't find ways to minimize capex.  [View news story]
    Remember, these cities had to submit proposals and compete to bring Google's gigabit service to their town. Chances are, Google paid a lot less to Kansas City in legal/extortion fees than Verizon pays Anytown, USA for FiOS.
    Jul 26 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Privately-owned patent troll NTP has reached licensing deals with 13 tech and telecom companies: the list includes Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Sprint (S), Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), and Samsung (SSNLF.PK). Terms haven't been disclosed; NTP reached a $612.5M settlement with Research In Motion in '06.  [View news story]
    In my opinion, it is fair to consider a person/company a patent troll if they own the patent, but have no intention of commercializing the idea, but rather try to make revenue by suing or settling with companies that use it.
    Jul 23 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Reinvesting Dividends A Mistake? [View article]
    Nonsense. If I have 10,000 shares in Southern Company, that's $470,000 in a single stock. To allow for proper diversification, my portfolio approaches eight figures in your scenario. In reality, I have much smaller amounts invested in many securities with free DRIPs. Your article also assumes someone is a good market timer and value investor who is able to pick out when a company is "on sale". If you can consistently do this, why only invest your DRIPs in the undervalued security and not your whole portfolio?

    Having a basket of dividend-growth stocks with free DRIPs is still the most consistent way to earn solid returns with below-average risk.
    Jul 19 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal (PCX) confirms an earlier report, announcing it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company expects to continue mining operations and customer shipments in ordinary fashion as it goes through reorganization, and has obtained a commitment for $802M in DIP financing. Shares -15% AH after falling 72% in the regular session. (PR)  [View news story]
    I don't want to say that nuclear is risk-free. It's not. Nuclear is a very unique technology that requires an enormous amount of regulation, safety, and security. However, all types of energy production involve risk - even renewables. We need to evaluate those risks, do our best to mitigate them, and see if it still makes economic sense to proceed.

    It didn't make economic sense to build new nuclear since the 80's. However, that changed a few years ago, and we now have four cutting-edge reactors under construction at V.C. Summer and Vogtle.
    Jul 14 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal (PCX) confirms an earlier report, announcing it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company expects to continue mining operations and customer shipments in ordinary fashion as it goes through reorganization, and has obtained a commitment for $802M in DIP financing. Shares -15% AH after falling 72% in the regular session. (PR)  [View news story]
    You're welcome, and thanks for the kind words. Thumbs up for people actually interested in hearing some real information and not just sensationalism!
    Jul 13 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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