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bosco115

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  • Great Recession II Portfolio: How I Generated A 34% Return Last Year [View article]
    Paul, I wanted to criticize the picks or the timing because the returns seem outsized, but you really nailed this one. However, I'm hesitant to limit my equity exposure to 5 stocks. If you could beef this list up to 10 stocks, I'd be listening.

    I also want to recommend being careful swapping ConEd (ED) for Exelon (EXC). Exelon is reliant on steady profits from nuclear, but as natural gas prices decrease, it cuts into their margin as a deregulated utility. An investment in Exelon is an expectation that gas prices are going to creep back up. It's excellent for capital preservation, but I wouldn't expect much growth.
    Aug 8, 2012. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $43 Billion Tesla: Musk's Incentives Of Interest [View article]
    Larry Ellison has been married and divorced four times. But Oracle is a freaking juggernaut. I don't care if the guy running the company is an eccentric jerk (Ellison), an egomaniac (Jobs), geek (Gates), or cocky foreigner (Musk). If he can build a company that makes me money, I like him. That's his job.
    Aug 7, 2012. 11:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $43 Billion Tesla: Musk's Incentives Of Interest [View article]
    Florence is a beautiful city in a beautiful country. But every car parked on the street was a ten-year-old hatchback with peeling paint. That's not Tesla's target market, and thus, I don't think they need to factor that into the Model S.

    However, the fourth model will likely be aimed at that market.
    Aug 7, 2012. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $43 Billion Tesla: Musk's Incentives Of Interest [View article]
    The transmission and distribution of LNG or CNG has just as many, if not more, problems than electrical charging stations. If it were economically obvious, we wouldn't even be discussing it right now. But it's going to require a commitment by a government or company to start building the infrastructure for one of these options.

    Musk is betting electric. I think he's right.
    Aug 7, 2012. 11:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • According to an economic barometer called the Money Market Index, the recent rally in the Dow over the past three trading sessions has been "totally irrational," says the index's chief researcher Dan Geller. The rally, mostly due to the release of Friday's monthly jobs report, shows that the enthusiasm has been mispaced due to the simple fact that a large portion of the 163K new jobs reported are only temporary, and likely to vanish soon. The move "has no economic merit," Geller insists.  [View news story]
    We've had nearly five years of "global financial turmoil". People are bored of the fear when they see KO increasing dividends and free cash flow.

    Turn off the news and get back to fundamentals.
    Aug 6, 2012. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Cyclicals In A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Monsanto (MON) is yielding 1.36%. DuPont (DD) is yielding 3.5%. Monsanto will have to increase its dividend for many, many years to catch up to the big dividends that are paid out every year by DuPont.

    Dividend growth or not, yield still matters.
    Aug 3, 2012. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    They already tried that with Ping. It's a fad, and there is very little money to be made. Everything that is great about social networking can be integrated into all of their devices for free. Microsoft, meanwhile, decides to buy Skype for almost $10B.

    Diversification is not always a positive. Take a look at GE. They almost diversified themselves into bankruptcy. Or Microsoft - diversifying themselves into complete tech irrelevance. Or Cisco.
    Jul 31, 2012. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    The answer to the first question is yes. The answer to the second question is yes.

    Right now, the market prices Apple as a smartphone company. The iPhone continues its domestic and international expansion, and there is still more room for growth. But the iPad sales are accelerating. As the tablet gets more powerful, PC's are needed less. The entire PC/laptop/netbook market is being cannibalized by the iPad. Even if Apple never invents another device and only iterates these two products, the growth of the iPad alone will drive overall revenue and earnings growth. Nearly all Fortune 500 companies are deploying the iPad. So yes, this can continue without new product lines.

    Meanwhile, you basically get the rest of the company for free because it is so undervalued. Mac is showing the only growth in the PC industry. Retina MacBooks are unable to keep up with demand. The legacy iPod business still generates free cash. The services division is profitable with the App Store, iTunes, iCloud, and iBooks. Vertical integration support companies are there (software, hardware, supply chain). And you get the research division that is betting on AppleTV.

    You're bearish because you think they can't keep coming up with hits. But the stock is already undervalued even when you only consider the current product lineup and 2013 sales.

    And then you can take the next step - what if it DOES make another blockbuster? Will you then say, "Okay, NOW they'll stop innovating!"
    Jul 31, 2012. 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    Wow, up 67% this week! That's amazing! That means its at a price level not seen since... late June. Incredible performance.

    Regarding expectations, Apple whiffed on earnings last week. The stock is higher now than it was before earnings. Explain how that works if the expectations are so delicate?

    You're treating this stock like it's Netflix or Palm. It's a $600B gorilla. It's the biggest company on Earth. And it's valued at 13.75x earnings, but still growing in double digits. This is overvalued?

    My guess is you see the high $600 price tag on the stock and think it's outlandish. But that sub-$10 price tag on Nokia was a total bargain, wasn't it?
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeremy Siegel fires back at Bill Gross, saying the bond guru is totally wrong about stocks. "The cult of equity" is not dying, Siegel says. "I will grant that the last 10-12 years have been poor years," Siegel says. But we started from "the most overvalued market that we had in the last century." (video)  [View news story]
    Read The Death of Equities. They made the same point in the article - that investors across the board had taken huge amounts of money out of stocks for the decade prior to 1979.

    Retail investors are a contrary indicator. As the market continues its march towards new all-time highs, retail investors will remain on the sidelines until the market has moved comfortably higher. Then they will pile into equities just in time for it to correct.

    Everybody tries to outsmart the market. Just leave it alone - buy and hold. Equities are going to keep increasing because we are still experiencing global growth driven by American multinationals selling products to developing markets.
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    Tack, GaltMachine, and Luke Tomasello all in one thread? We got ourselves a bona-fide anti-Apple circlejerk!
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeremy Siegel fires back at Bill Gross, saying the bond guru is totally wrong about stocks. "The cult of equity" is not dying, Siegel says. "I will grant that the last 10-12 years have been poor years," Siegel says. But we started from "the most overvalued market that we had in the last century." (video)  [View news story]
    This whole scenario reads exactly like The Death of Equities in Aug 1979. Wrong time to be long-term bearish.

    Expectations are already rock bottom. Imagine if the market gains any sort of confidence. Boom.
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB -4.9%) tumbles to new lows; shares are now down 42% from their $38 IPO price. The decline comes after Bernstein's Carlos Kirjner provides a lukewarm upgrade to Market Perform. Kirjner values Facebook's ad business at $19/share, and everything else at a mere $4/share. Moreover, he's worried about a decline in European ad rates (ed: ad rates rose elsewhere), and a share lock-up expiration that begins in August, and will increase Facebook's float by 276% by November. ZNGA -2.3%.  [View news story]
    This has nothing to do with the 99% or the 1%. This has everything to do with an overhyped stock that you (and you alone) decided to purchase. You bought into it, hoping for an easy pop and a quick sale, and you got burned.

    You have nobody to blame but yourself for investing in this overvalued, overhyped pig. Take personal responsibility and strive to do better next time. End of story.
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:20 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple iPhone 5: Put Up Or Shut Up [View article]
    How's your Nokia (NOK) investment working out, Luke Tomasello? If you were so ridiculously wrong on that call, why in the world should I listen to you now?

    Fact is, you guys like a phone or operating system more than the iPhone. Fantastic. You have an opinion. Where you're losing me, (and obviously yourselves since you're losing money on NOK) is translating that into investment advice.

    The iPhone has lived under the constant fear of a better competitor since the Motorola Droid, HTC Evo, Samsung Galaxy, or the T-Mobile HTC myTouch 4G Supercalifragilisticex... MoreNamesMakesACoolerDevice with Google. It hasn't done anything to stop Apple, and whole companies and industries are folding when they stand in the way. Palm, HP, Dell, RIM, Nokia, Motorola, HTC, etc. These guys were mowed down to a shadow of their former selves in the face of the Apple juggernaut.

    Look at Apple (AAPL)'s stock chart. Look at its earnings growth. Look at its P/E. Look at its PEG. Look at the surveys showing unbelievable pent-up demand for the iPhone 5. Draw your own conclusions at your own risk, because mine have been wildly profitable.
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Facebook Earnings Review: Long-Term Potential Is Fully Intact, A Buying Opportunity Is At Hand [View article]
    I'd like to point out that Facebook grew revenue 32% YoY, and Apple grew revenue 22% YoY. Meanwhile, FB has a P/E of 82 and AAPL has a P/E of 13.75.

    I'm puzzled as to why Facebook deserves my limited investment funds until it shows a more reasonable valuation.
    Jul 29, 2012. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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