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AlexTheGreat

AlexTheGreat
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  • Getting Whipsawed: Only In Hindsight [View article]
    One word

    http://tinyurl.com/bva...
    Jun 6, 2012. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Spotlight: Cambria Global Tactical ETF [View article]
    GTAA tracks the SPY.

    Hmm...should I pay .09% or 1%?
    Aug 5, 2011. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AdvisorShares Looks to Launch 2 New ETFs, Cuts Expenses on GTAA [View article]
    Ronny, it's way tooooo simple of a strategy to pay for. I'm quite familiar with it otherwise I wouldn't have opened my mouth. I really think the only thing you're paying for is convenience. You're not paying for risk mgmt, because if you can't use a simple moving avg like he does to protect against downturns then you shouldn't be in the market anyway.
    Feb 1, 2011. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AdvisorShares Looks to Launch 2 New ETFs, Cuts Expenses on GTAA [View article]
    GTAA seems to track and even underperform the SPY.

    finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=^GSPC

    Hmmmmmm, now the fees on the SPY is .09 and GTAA is .99. Sound like active following/under performing. Can someone tell me what you're paying for here?
    Jan 24, 2011. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks Whitney Tilson Is Heavily Shorting [View article]
    These sound logical too me, although timing will be key and I'm not sure now is the time. Probably later this year when QE2 ends and the market tries to stand firmly on it's own. Although, the Fed may just keep spoon feeding this economy.

    Homebuilders and housing will be under pressure for many years to come - unless Big Ben keeps bailing and bailing and bailing - which is impossible.

    Banks and financial services are going to be tangled in legal problems, toxic debt, and further regulation for quite a while.

    Techs (and a tinge of the S&P) are approaching an overvalued state.

    Conclusion: these aren't dumb plays, just maybe bad timing.
    Jan 8, 2011. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Stocks That Can Enhance Your Portfolio [View article]
    Do projections for AAPL at $1000 (currently at 22x earnings at around $338/sh) and PCLN currently at 47x earnings AND the most ridiculous site ever created (yep, facebook) valued at $50 billion tell anyone else something? I'm eager for the next bubble, I need to make some more fast cash.
    Jan 8, 2011. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Predictions: Not the Time to Buy a House [View article]
    Home prices will go nowhere in the next decade, unless of course, Big Ben (like Greenspan) decides to keep rates ridiculously low. Easy money is out there still; just a little harder to get than before. But why people get suckered into spending more than they can afford, I don't get.

    Here's why housing will go nowhere...
    1) Bad loans will be resetting until about 2015
    2) Unemployment is too high
    3) Wages have been stagnant for about 10 years - productivity at high levels and is not sustainable
    4) Rates will need to rise as inflationary pressure mounts, thus making homes less affordable

    There's only ONE saving grace and that's feeding the emerging market machine. If exports continue to soar while the dollar is in the gutter that may drive the US economy by forcing increased output and productivity.

    The US should rely on the outside world for demand instead of forcing it upon ourselves via low interest rates and financially engineered products. We don't have the money to afford what the government and corporations want us to. Going into debt is artificial demand and the middle class is demolished. Something has to give.
    Jan 2, 2011. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2010's Best New ETFs [View article]
    Give people a wordpress site and an internet connection and a splash of motivation and you get 'ETF DB'.
    Jan 1, 2011. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus on AdvisorShares Cambria Global Tactical ETF [View article]
    The assets used here are very correlated, thus the instruments chosen don't provide a whole lot of diversification. The only point of this strategy is risk management and that's achieved by a simple rule of going into cash when Price < 10 Month SMA (which is quite close to the 200 day SMA). Plot GTAA vs the SPY and you'll notice the correlation. All of this is subject to 'curve fitting' and strategies that use a long-term MA have been around for decades.

    Also, you're paying a big fee for this strategy because it's actively managed. But how this is considered 'active' I'm not sure considering it follows a monthly timing signal. That's not very active IMO. Actually, you can code this strategy in 10 minutes in any more complex platform - which is probably what the fund mgrs have done. They're at home on the couch; the computer's doing all the work ;)

    If you want, you can do it yourself by investing in the SPY when price crosses over it's 10 month MA. Then to cash when price goes below that MA. It'll perform much better than GTAA. I do something similar with my own portfolio, but the key is how you compound your returns when the market is beneath the moving average. Remember that markets fall faster and harder than they rise. That's where you make all your money. It's the double-down of the investing world. Send me a PM and we can talk about how to achieve this.
    Dec 20, 2010. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GTAA: The 'Ivy Portfolio' in ETF Form [View article]
    Here's my point as well. You can see this is easily replicated by anyone.

    jamesfowlkes.com/what-.../

    Let's call it 'SimpleVesting' and charge people?? Or write an eBook? Stop me when u think it's getting a little ridiculous.
    Nov 27, 2010. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GTAA: The 'Ivy Portfolio' in ETF Form [View article]
    Yes, I think you see my point. It's one of the first thing most people
    learn. I would hope your amigo at PIMCO uses/knows of it. I don't know anyone who doesn't know what it is and use it in some fashion - it's the basics kiddo. So my points (and my last post here) are:

    (1) A moving average is basic, TA 101. Ask any CMT. I'm not arguing the use of the indicator.

    (2) Faber didn't 'invent' this strategy or any permutation of it. Sorry Meb. He wrote a paper on SSRN that anyone could have wrote and some new, self-directed 'investors' adopted it as the holy grail. Kinda like people using that Trend Trading program I see at 3:00 a.m. on infomercials.

    (3) A fof using this basic approach is not worth paying a high premium for. Imagine if you owned a ton of Fidelity funds in the past and Peter Lynch told you all they did was follow a 10 month SMA. I think you'd need another change of pants.
    Oct 31, 2010. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GTAA: The 'Ivy Portfolio' in ETF Form [View article]
    Thanks for the plug, but I have about 10 tools that do this for me and is much more robust (i.e. using an enormous TA library).

    That being said, this must be the beginner section of seeking alpha - too many people caught up in a moving average.
    Oct 30, 2010. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GTAA: The 'Ivy Portfolio' in ETF Form [View article]
    Sure, like I said, I get the risk management part. But you do know that the concept of trend following (using MAs) has been around for many, many,many years. I know many people think Faber devised the concept, but it's truly not correct. Therefore, his studies and work really don't have technical merit and the oversimplification of his message has dragged in newbie, self directed 'investors'. So maybe he's just simply a good salesman.

    So if you choose to pay a pretty high mgmt fee for someone to manage a simple model that entirely up to you.
    Oct 29, 2010. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GTAA: The 'Ivy Portfolio' in ETF Form [View article]
    A few studies out there have shown that it basically matches buy and hold - of course all this is subject to data snooping - and so is Faber's paper. I get the risk management part of it (which is the easiest part) and all it takes is drawing a moving average. This fund/strategy will not beat the benchmark in bull markets (bull=price being higher that the tracked moving average). I'll put money on it.

    Hard to turn a lazy portfolio into something with high mgmt fees.
    Oct 29, 2010. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GTAA: The 'Ivy Portfolio' in ETF Form [View article]
    Here, I packaged it for you:

    img3.imageshack.us/img...

    Where's my 1%?

    My issue with the 'understanding' part is that If it's so simple, then we'd all be filthy rich. Personally, I want some deep experience before I consider handing my money over. Oversimplified, mainstream strategies are as good as the amount of thought put into them.

    Hand over your money to me, I'll do the same strategy and charge you 50bps and the great thing about it is, I can automate the whole thing. So I really don't have to do anything but push the Start button.
    Oct 27, 2010. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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