erewhonman

For Your Perusal: The Glory of Free Market Oil Supply

After reading the froth I went back to Gregor's terse presentation. The argument that increase in price does not always lead to an increase in supply - recent non-Opec, non-Russian oil being the example - is well engaged. Interesting is the array of soap boxes that were pulled out and shouted from in responding to this simple argument. Almost no one responded to the argument! There is no hope!

Canadian Royalty Trusts – Will Dividends Rise or Fall?

One other major problem. You claim as follows:

"To be entitled to the current tax pass-through treatment, an outside company must do the actual work of extracting / producing the resource while the CanRoy has just a few employees to process their royalty income from the operators of the field or mine and distribute it pro rata to the unit holders."

Not so. Most CanRoys have large capital budgets not just to replace production but to increase it. Some are actual leaders in emerging plays such as Crescent Point (just converted back to a corporation) in the Bakken, NAL in the Pembina, etc. etc. So there is a strong hands on growth model for may CanRoys. On many reserves, production, RLI are all increasing whether by drill bit or takeover.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Despite my best efforts I cannot see an exponential trend in oil produced/supplied/dema... I can see a recent peak, plunge and modest recovery to near trend line prices. When one places the decline (and imminent decline) in US $, I see oil below trend thus oil's at least a hold if not a buy, maybe a strong buy on oil. If your analysis depends on the minimum wage in Colorado you have blinkered yourself from the real world. Decoupling continues on strongly and has become nearly irreversible. If you live in an un-decoupled world it is likely you will lose money.

Energy Crisis Postponed: New Gas To The Rescue; U.S. May Return to Near Energy Self-Sufficiency?

Colin rants: "It's further evidence of the genius of the free market and should warrant increased skepticism of centrally planned efforts to move the US to alternative energy sources. Guided by the price mechanism, it is the market, not politicians, that should be charting our future direction in energy."

If energy producers/consumers didn't offload all their carbon costs on to future generations I might have more sympathy for Colin's comment. But there is a gigantic failure of the markets! A nation of freeloaders are dumping their carbon garbage into the global commons complements of a conveniently ignorant market system. Time to price carbon emissions. Tax carbon

Global Oil Supply: Learning from Lagos

Wonderful oxymoron: stall speed. First time I have heard it (must be out of the loop or Gregor is a top end wordsmith) and quite memorable as it seems a terribly appropriate metric in oil supply analysis. Insightful big picture deconstruction or dissection. Makes me want to buy some more oil.

Energy Myths for the 21st Century

Georgescu-Roegen had very interesting things to say about the essential nature of economic activity (entropic) with most particular emphasis on energy. With your lead-in I hoped you might bring him to a wider audience but you stopped right there!

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

So why don't we trust Shaefer to tell us about global warming? Why? Because his is just one more political rant from the epicentre of hillbilly politics.

There is great risk from the effects of GHG and global warming. It is an overwhelmingly credible threat. There is no quality peer-reviewed discrediting science. Nearly every country in the world formally acknowledges the threat. Nearly every credible big energy company acknowledges the threat, even those adverse in interest acknowledge it. The only good thing about Shaefer's piece is he dresses the pig up real pretty.

Why Invest in Oil Over Alternative Energy

On wind power I think you were trying to make it out as having a net energy deficit on cradle to grave accounting when all the input and operation energy usage is considered. What garbage! But you have brought a new dimension to gonzo journalism

Natural Gas Is a Trade, Not an Investment

While I agree with your analysis, more inspired was your title. Succinctly it captured the spirit of the analysis and conclusion. I am not used to relevant titling.

The Crude Oil Collapse Is Coming

A core notion to your future expectations is that people are quickly going to realize "China's current expansion as the beginning of a new credit bubble". Where or where did you get that one from? It took USA twenty five years to only dimly become aware of their credit bubble. Dismissing China may be a little too facile.

Same with OPEC. Your argument in dismissing OPEC is that they had about a 1/1000th increase in gross production quarter on quarter. I have a word for that degree of increase - it is mere "Noise"!

As for correlations between S & P 500 and oil equities, its a big world out there and when you eliminate OPEC, China, make unusual assumptions about Russia, you have some severe problems with your projections.

U.S. Natural Gas Rig Count at Seven Year Low

I'm with JuniorEnergy on this one. Each rig is developing much more gas production than seven years back. Another number, when considering production declines, is: Of the decline in production, how much is shut in (just waiting for a price stimulus to flood back into the market) and how much is decline in production capacity?

Why It's Crucial to Reduce Leverage in Oil

When oil trades in a price range that closely reflects the costs of that marginal barrel of oil, it is daft to say that current prices are in a speculative bubble. For all the froth and the shorter-term economic turmoil, oil still remains in a tight supply/demand range and longer term the only direction it will break out is upward. I speculate that these guys who think everything is manipulated by speculators are merely speculating.

Looks Like Oil Production Already Peaked

OilFinder, you jiggy-jigged your charts to make your argument. Chart on Price of oil ranges something like 500%. Over that you superimpose a Production chart that has about a 6% range. Then, because the slopes look similar you argue close correspondence. Yes a 300% increase in price affected production but in a surprisingly small way. In part that was the argument.


On Jul 19 11:20 PM OilFinder wrote:

> >> "Daily oil production remained flat while prices doubled and

Is a Natural Gas Bottom Coming?

Trading based on rig counts may get one in trouble. Over the last few years the amount of gas discovered per rig has climbed significantly so that far fewer rigs are required, particularly in the new shale plays.

10 Option Ideas for Before Crude Oil Peaks

Oil is fungible, a world commodity. Doubt that the US summer driving season now drives world oil prices any more. I agree with MadHedger guy. The news is being made elsewhere.