erewhonman

Penn West Energy: Too Good to Be True?

Elliot, two points concerning exchange rate. Canadians buy CanRoys as well so its only a problem for Americans. Secondly, I like the $Can going forward much more than the $US at these rates.

Global Warming Models: 'Out of Order'?

Global warming is a big money alien conspiracy to separate real american men from their 4 x 4s and jesus. Americans stand up and fight for everything sacred; god,, guns, guts, glory and ghgas. And remember, as the author above notes, the plants will love you for it!

The Crude Oil Collapse Is Coming

A core notion to your future expectations is that people are quickly going to realize "China's current expansion as the beginning of a new credit bubble". Where or where did you get that one from? It took USA twenty five years to only dimly become aware of their credit bubble. Dismissing China may be a little too facile.

Same with OPEC. Your argument in dismissing OPEC is that they had about a 1/1000th increase in gross production quarter on quarter. I have a word for that degree of increase - it is mere "Noise"!

As for correlations between S & P 500 and oil equities, its a big world out there and when you eliminate OPEC, China, make unusual assumptions about Russia, you have some severe problems with your projections.

For Your Perusal: The Glory of Free Market Oil Supply

After reading the froth I went back to Gregor's terse presentation. The argument that increase in price does not always lead to an increase in supply - recent non-Opec, non-Russian oil being the example - is well engaged. Interesting is the array of soap boxes that were pulled out and shouted from in responding to this simple argument. Almost no one responded to the argument! There is no hope!

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

So why don't we trust Shaefer to tell us about global warming? Why? Because his is just one more political rant from the epicentre of hillbilly politics.

There is great risk from the effects of GHG and global warming. It is an overwhelmingly credible threat. There is no quality peer-reviewed discrediting science. Nearly every country in the world formally acknowledges the threat. Nearly every credible big energy company acknowledges the threat, even those adverse in interest acknowledge it. The only good thing about Shaefer's piece is he dresses the pig up real pretty.

Porter Stansberry: Pockets of Promise in Natural Gas and Oil

The greater certainty and the greater contempt for other views, the greater likelihood of profound ignorance. Be careful of diviners out there!

Climate Deal Requires Fairness, Not Equity

Not sure your terms of contrast of "equity" and "justice" are proper. Regardless there is one alternative that has the smell of both equity and justice but not much effort was spent on that. That is treating carbon as a cost of production (negative externality, presently) and pricing it accordingly - the misnamed (but close enough) carbon tax. Economists like it and most thinking people like it until they go ballistic over the term "tax". Not just justice and equity, but transparency, simplicity and efficiency argue for a carbon tax. Earlier rather than later is the best time for Canadians to recognize the true costs of tar sands production.

Why Invest in Oil Over Alternative Energy

On wind power I think you were trying to make it out as having a net energy deficit on cradle to grave accounting when all the input and operation energy usage is considered. What garbage! But you have brought a new dimension to gonzo journalism

Is a Natural Gas Bottom Coming?

Trading based on rig counts may get one in trouble. Over the last few years the amount of gas discovered per rig has climbed significantly so that far fewer rigs are required, particularly in the new shale plays.

Stopping Oil's Rise Before Oil Stops Ours

Bring on $200 oil! North America should have learned the lessons of the early 70s, the mid 80s, the early 21st century, the lessons most of the rest of the world picked up on. Fossil fuels are increasingly scarce, increasingly expensive, increasingly nasty in their negative externalities.

But no, there was no lesson learned. Dinosaur SUVs now careen the streets! While oil wars rage.

Get with it. Treat resources as if precious not a fiscal stimulus. Conserve them, might be needed in the future. Develop efficient infrastructure, smart cities, clean public transportation. Save the atmosphere and lots of other things too, including a reasonable hope for the future.

As for green house gases, it has become an intelligence test. All the thinking world recognizes it as a real risk. Some dim chimps still think there is no risk at all. Go figure

Betting Against Shale Natural Gas Plays Using Puts

Tom, initial production and early decline rates are fairly well known. The longer term that has uncertainty and that will be a question of degrees (degrees on the slope of the decline curve). Probably just a few degrees and thus a few cents on the economic costs of unconventional gas. I see Puts or Shorting as very risky with dubious reward. If fast decline is the case market awareness could be years away and then so small as to be imperceptible. So careful with this one.

As for natural gas in a transition strategy to clean energy, I see great utility. Particularly if there a rigorous mechanism for pricing carbon emissions. Pricing keeps the heat on (so to speak) to find low carbon alternatives and that remains true whether natural gas or any other energy source, so there is motivation to move from coal to NG, then from NG to cleaner sources. To get to 'there' you have to start 'here'.

Politics Pressure Natural Gas Price: 1998 Oil All Over Again?

I enjoyed Wulff's thesis a lot more that the responding rants. Is there in fact a'pass' given to coal and not NatGas? Is it motivated by Russia management objectives? USA and its unconventional shale bounty is a long way from the russkies. Where is the natgas lobby in all of this. It is increasingly clear that lobbies rule and the people (democracy types) drool. So why the pass to coal? What are the economics in North America? Wulff pose an interesting question.

Canadian Royalty Trusts – Will Dividends Rise or Fall?

One other major problem. You claim as follows:

"To be entitled to the current tax pass-through treatment, an outside company must do the actual work of extracting / producing the resource while the CanRoy has just a few employees to process their royalty income from the operators of the field or mine and distribute it pro rata to the unit holders."

Not so. Most CanRoys have large capital budgets not just to replace production but to increase it. Some are actual leaders in emerging plays such as Crescent Point (just converted back to a corporation) in the Bakken, NAL in the Pembina, etc. etc. So there is a strong hands on growth model for may CanRoys. On many reserves, production, RLI are all increasing whether by drill bit or takeover.

The Great American Driving Reduction Continues

Why not superimpose the price of gasoline onto your miles driven chart. Now if you charted miles driven in China you might see something a little different. Something else. Miles driven is not a measure of degree of civilization or enlightenment.

Profiting from Obama's Energy Tax Plan

I'm thinking you should travel a bit, son. Yes, travel quite a bit and see the world. After you see how the rest of the world responded to higher fosssil-fuel energy prices (for example, three decades back Europe and Japan) then, and only then, write. Nearly every country in the world is more efficient in its use of energy than the USofA.