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  • Why You Should Be Afraid: The Next Recession Is Likely To Include Wage Deflation [View article]
    Hale,

    The Reminds me of some arguments put forward in Daniel Alperts "The age of oversupply". I wonder how this data looks like on a global and regional basis. Are we just splitting the wealth more with the rest of the world now that they have joined the party in a meaningfull way ?? Of course there are other technological factors too but interesting similarities nonetheless.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    Welcome to the club Bill. Been there since 200's on this one and the chorus of SA articles with a bearish slant at that time. You outlined some extra points that make a stressfull case for IBM and I'm not ruling out a run to 120,s. The bears have been right on this one for a while.

    IBM's performance has been lousy especially when u take the general market into consideration (wow, what a stinker) and of course how long will Warren hang in there.
    Mar 11, 2015. 04:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish inventory number doesn't hurt oil [View news story]
    "and finally. WTI had 4 attempts at $49 handle this week and failed. it's a strong signal that bearish sentiment is not strong enough."

    Amen

    I would add that the lowered capex everywhere is not good for future discovery and development. If we just run with what we have now, it will eventually burn off, not finding and developing more means problems later on if we aren't living on TSLA's battery packs; hence contango. I wouldn't be pushong the bearish position at these depths.
    Feb 25, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Is A Red Herring [View article]
    Nice job George. It makes sense that the marginal operations are closing first, so point taken, dont watch the general rig count but more "which rigs" are being folded.

    One really has to know how much oil they have sold forward and at what prices and how they are hedged to get a picture of things.

    What I wanna know is just how much extra oil is out there anyway ?
    Feb 23, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl [View article]
    "We expect production to slow in the second half of the year and prices to recover."

    So then it dosent make sense to look at the inventory number, which can baloon even more; cause as long as the above statement is true then anything under 50 is bargain hunting as long as you can store the stuff. And the lower prices get from here the higher the incentive to pull rigs from an already lower number, meaning less supply later on.

    Or am i missing something ?
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Random Thoughts On A Cruise To Nowhere [View article]
    Yup, I see that I'm also in good company being confused as well. The oil story makes sense.
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Examining The iPad Issue [View article]
    Bill, I think you should revisit your article on Peak Apple, or maybe Peak apple was a comment I made on one of your articles a while back. WE have passed the peak and this is you and all trying to rationalise a way back. I'm guessing this will be one in a long line of articles on "Apple Issues".

    It's inevitable
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Peak? Why I Completely Disagree [View article]
    We will see says the wiseman :-)
    Nov 19, 2014. 04:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Small But Growing Reasons To Be Concerned Here [View article]
    It's worth watching Apple and the biotechs as a bellweather. The latter seems to be pulling in and the former just made what looks like a shooting star. Thats enough to start nibbling on the short side. I've got an eye over my shoulder for the thanksgiving /xmas melt up party folks.
    Nov 18, 2014. 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    Bill, I think we've reached peak apple, but it's good to see the crowd is still wildly optimistic.
    Oct 28, 2014. 04:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inventory Rules The Cycle [View article]
    Interesting, thx for the analysis.
    May 1, 2014. 03:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Takes A Massive Step [View article]
    "the acquisition of WhatsApp brings younger users to Facebook."

    I dont know about that dude.

    My first thought on seeing the headline was, "oh no", am I goin to have to uninstall whatsapp too. You see I dont have FB on my phone cuz I dont want to. Cant be bothered to be tempted with the constant stream. But i have Viber and whats app(WA) , there are alternatives; so if FB starts to mess around with WA then it's not so hard to make a switch. Most of my viber contacts have WA as well. I hear there is BB messenger. I wonder where most of WA's growth coming from, is it from parts of the world where they can afford 10 a month ??? and don't these users already have FB

    I'm not sure how FB will monetize this purchase; scratching my head; but happy for the WA folks, nice to sell out.
    Feb 20, 2014. 05:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Long-Term Picture [View article]
    Thats a strategy I can believe in if he sticks to it and gets it to work. The security angle is a stronger selling point than anything else, which can make them appealing to corporates again.

    Interesting case, wish em luck.
    Jan 10, 2014. 03:27 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Has A Cash Flow Problem [View article]
    Interesting arguments and you have to look into the stock buyback thing more rigidly. As a company is it in your best interest to use resources (cash) to buy back stock. What does that achieve ??? Everyone will have a different answer based on thier perspective in the fight, I guess.

    This is a long line of articles that are negative on IBM and have all been right over the past year or so. Have been playing IBM to the shortside since it was at 210 in early 2013. It was interesting to hear the bullish arguments when it got under 200 and why it was a screaming deal when it was holding on to support at 190. Now at 179 after a post report bounce up from 173, where do we go. The 150- 165 range aint out of the question. Growth where forth are though, show me the money and I'll be long. I guess you can only manage EPS for so long, if you aint got the next big thing or something then sooner or later, reality hits.
    Nov 11, 2013. 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advice For Young Investment Professionals [View article]
    good piece jeff.
    Nov 8, 2013. 05:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
240 Comments
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