Just found your article from May and then these two follows up. interesting that you did not go all in or significantly in back in March based on your assumptions.
I slept on your assumptions, and came to the conclusion that this is not your normal recession and probably wont end in the normal way and the return to growth trajectory might be different from previous.
Even with hindsight, I can understand why u went in with a small position. But as to why you are all in now, when the risk profile of the market is different beats me....unless u think we are just going to tread slowly higher from here. ????
Well now in November you were spot on with your unbiased look at things. Care to do a follow up regarding the sustainability from here on in upup and away or a double dip.
The employment situation this time is different fom the previous recessions, 10 % adn the time unemployed is longer too. surely this must have some effect ???
Industrial Production Is Growing but Where Are All the Products Going? [View article]
Interesting, you wonder whats going on with China having a 75% increase in Auto sales. But i guess they decide to become consumers rather than rely on the US. If this holds and the US comes back then we have a vibrant world economy firing on all cylinders. US, Brasil, India and China consuming and producing as well at various levels of the production chain.
Long term 5 to 10 years it's a very bullish picture-
Global Markets in Review: Reversal in Financial Markets [View article]
Great article with lots of info..well put togather.
Seems like everyone agrees it's pullback time. then they will slug it out in a consolidation range for a while and then we wither take off or go lower.
ahhhhh tiring - may you live in interesting times is really a curse and these times sure are interesting. gonna take lots and I mean lots of effort to make money.
Lakshman Achuthan: Climbing the 'Wall of Worry' [View article]
one question that I would have like to ask is "what risk does he see for the US economy"
He seems to think of your garden variety recession, it's over move on. But he doesn't touch on the fact that the consumer is more damaged this time than ever + business has xcess capacity and are in no need of investing....so what are the drivers ?????
If I try answering that myself I'd say stimilus and windows 7.
I think most here are not complaining of the situation but rather feel insulted by the powers that be saying the recession is over when we have fallen off a cliff adn are jsut being dragged on the bottom.
On Oct 26 07:55 AM richjoy403 wrote:
> Clearly the way to get a bunch of 'thumbs up' here is to throw up > a personal story and complain that the recession is not over. (We > all get it, it's painful and you would rather that everyone else > join in your pain than that they are comfortable enough to do the > things that contribute to the end the recession.)
Mary Meeker: Economy Is Recovering, Mobile Is Exploding [View article]
Have to admit her presentation points with loaded words seemed a bit bubblicious. when she metioned facebook I lost her as I'm on that thing and thinking about leaving that network...a fantastic waste of time.
BLS vs. ADP Numbers: Employment Outlook Is Improving [View article]
Beach Pundit,
Your still using that falling at a slower pace is better analogy, which is just wrong.
Did you miss the PMI report ????
Any furthermore we could not continue at that 750 or even 500 pace for too long. people need to make food, eat , drive busses nurses and many public sector jobs. The plumbing of the economy. The fact that we are still loosing jobs is frightening.
I applaud your optimism but look at the data carefully please and stop warping it to fit your viewpoint.
Semiconductor Industry Rebound: Is It Long Term? [View article]
Interesting , but would like to know what customers are ramping orders to TI and INTC and how are there customers behaving. Is the channell just getting stuffed again, or is there actual sell through.
Durable Goods: Tech Turns the Corner [View article]
I was looking for some good news adn read your post as a respite from all the negative out there but this theme is overwhelming in all th research out there and you nailed it adn at the same time refuted your entire article
"Now if end user demand from businesses and consumers can ramp up sufficiently to absorb what is being manufactured, then we can expect to see these charts continue to head in the right direction."
Can it just be that we've seen inventory restocking reflected in your data and we're crossing our fingers hoping someone will buy. reflected in your statement.
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The Rally Really Was Sustainable [View article]
I slept on your assumptions, and came to the conclusion that this is not your normal recession and probably wont end in the normal way and the return to growth trajectory might be different from previous.
Even with hindsight, I can understand why u went in with a small position. But as to why you are all in now, when the risk profile of the market is different beats me....unless u think we are just going to tread slowly higher from here. ????
Are Markets Headed for an 800-Point Blow-Off Day? [View article]
Stock Prices and Unemployment Peaks [View article]
But the market is smarter than I am...adn know something I dont so it keeps going up.
This Rally Is Sustainable [View article]
The employment situation this time is different fom the previous recessions, 10 % adn the time unemployed is longer too. surely this must have some effect ???
Industrial Production Is Growing but Where Are All the Products Going? [View article]
Long term 5 to 10 years it's a very bullish picture-
Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was [View article]
Global Markets in Review: Reversal in Financial Markets [View article]
Seems like everyone agrees it's pullback time. then they will slug it out in a consolidation range for a while and then we wither take off or go lower.
ahhhhh tiring - may you live in interesting times is really a curse and these times sure are interesting. gonna take lots and I mean lots of effort to make money.
Is Europe's Rally in Its Final Stage? [View article]
Lakshman Achuthan: Climbing the 'Wall of Worry' [View article]
He seems to think of your garden variety recession, it's over move on. But he doesn't touch on the fact that the consumer is more damaged this time than ever + business has xcess capacity and are in no need of investing....so what are the drivers ?????
If I try answering that myself I'd say stimilus and windows 7.
Who Thinks This Recession Is Over? [View article]
On Oct 26 07:55 AM richjoy403 wrote:
> Clearly the way to get a bunch of 'thumbs up' here is to throw up
> a personal story and complain that the recession is not over. (We
> all get it, it's painful and you would rather that everyone else
> join in your pain than that they are comfortable enough to do the
> things that contribute to the end the recession.)
Mary Meeker: Economy Is Recovering, Mobile Is Exploding [View article]
BLS vs. ADP Numbers: Employment Outlook Is Improving [View article]
Your still using that falling at a slower pace is better analogy, which is just wrong.
Did you miss the PMI report ????
Any furthermore we could not continue at that 750 or even 500 pace for too long. people need to make food, eat , drive busses nurses and many public sector jobs. The plumbing of the economy. The fact that we are still loosing jobs is frightening.
I applaud your optimism but look at the data carefully please and stop warping it to fit your viewpoint.
Semiconductor Industry Rebound: Is It Long Term? [View article]
but would like to know what customers are ramping orders to TI and INTC and how are there customers behaving. Is the channell just getting stuffed again, or is there actual sell through.
Durable Goods: Tech Turns the Corner [View article]
"Now if end user demand from businesses and consumers can ramp up sufficiently to absorb what is being manufactured, then we can expect to see these charts continue to head in the right direction."
Can it just be that we've seen inventory restocking reflected in your data and we're crossing our fingers hoping someone will buy. reflected in your statement.