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  • Buffett Was Wrong On IBM, But What Lies Ahead?  [View article]
    I rememmber when IBM was up around 200 and bearish articles came out calling for 150 price target. The technicals indicated that level, but the die hard bulls saw something else. One question was when would Buffet exit and what would that do tot he stock ? and I think that is still relevant.
    Jan 22, 2016. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Probability Of Another 2008  [View article]
    "We haven't had a boom (either in the economy or in the stock market),"

    That quote jumped out at me and is actually quite debateable. Maybe not a boom in the economy but certainly a boom in the market ; So this may just be the market getting back in line with the economy. I was just looking at Albert Edwards presentation, specifically the part about buybacks. That could help explain some of the discrepancy and normalisation taking place.
    Jan 19, 2016. 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equity And Economic Review: Will The Rebound Last, Edition?  [View article]
    Thanks for the perspective, but you have the Transports charts in twice instead of the Russel. Does everyone have the same encyclopedia of chart patterns :-), mine says you should interpret double bottoms like this with caution, especially since the market is coming off a major top.
    Oct 12, 2015. 04:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Damage Done And What's To Come  [View article]
    Yea Dude i have to agree with the above comment, what was this post about. Much ado about nothing.....I'm expecting better from you Michael.
    Sep 28, 2015. 08:04 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JOLTS Report Warns Job Growth May Be Entering Late Cycle  [View article]
    Thanks for the insight Hale.
    Sep 10, 2015. 04:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rantette About China-Related Data  [View article]
    "Which is why I generally treat data about the Chinese economy as emanating from a block box. In a darkened room. In the dead of night. At the time of a new moon."

    May 6, 2015. 03:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Be Afraid: The Next Recession Is Likely To Include Wage Deflation  [View article]

    The Reminds me of some arguments put forward in Daniel Alperts "The age of oversupply". I wonder how this data looks like on a global and regional basis. Are we just splitting the wealth more with the rest of the world now that they have joined the party in a meaningfull way ?? Of course there are other technological factors too but interesting similarities nonetheless.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish  [View article]
    Welcome to the club Bill. Been there since 200's on this one and the chorus of SA articles with a bearish slant at that time. You outlined some extra points that make a stressfull case for IBM and I'm not ruling out a run to 120,s. The bears have been right on this one for a while.

    IBM's performance has been lousy especially when u take the general market into consideration (wow, what a stinker) and of course how long will Warren hang in there.
    Mar 11, 2015. 04:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish inventory number doesn't hurt oil  [View news story]
    "and finally. WTI had 4 attempts at $49 handle this week and failed. it's a strong signal that bearish sentiment is not strong enough."


    I would add that the lowered capex everywhere is not good for future discovery and development. If we just run with what we have now, it will eventually burn off, not finding and developing more means problems later on if we aren't living on TSLA's battery packs; hence contango. I wouldn't be pushong the bearish position at these depths.
    Feb 25, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Is A Red Herring  [View article]
    Nice job George. It makes sense that the marginal operations are closing first, so point taken, dont watch the general rig count but more "which rigs" are being folded.

    One really has to know how much oil they have sold forward and at what prices and how they are hedged to get a picture of things.

    What I wanna know is just how much extra oil is out there anyway ?
    Feb 23, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: U.S. Crude Storage Capacity Is Filling Up, So Oil May Be Headed Below $40/Bbl  [View article]
    "We expect production to slow in the second half of the year and prices to recover."

    So then it dosent make sense to look at the inventory number, which can baloon even more; cause as long as the above statement is true then anything under 50 is bargain hunting as long as you can store the stuff. And the lower prices get from here the higher the incentive to pull rigs from an already lower number, meaning less supply later on.

    Or am i missing something ?
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Random Thoughts On A Cruise To Nowhere  [View article]
    Yup, I see that I'm also in good company being confused as well. The oil story makes sense.
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Examining The iPad Issue  [View article]
    Bill, I think you should revisit your article on Peak Apple, or maybe Peak apple was a comment I made on one of your articles a while back. WE have passed the peak and this is you and all trying to rationalise a way back. I'm guessing this will be one in a long line of articles on "Apple Issues".

    It's inevitable
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Peak? Why I Completely Disagree  [View article]
    We will see says the wiseman :-)
    Nov 19, 2014. 04:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Small But Growing Reasons To Be Concerned Here  [View article]
    It's worth watching Apple and the biotechs as a bellweather. The latter seems to be pulling in and the former just made what looks like a shooting star. Thats enough to start nibbling on the short side. I've got an eye over my shoulder for the thanksgiving /xmas melt up party folks.
    Nov 18, 2014. 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment