China's flash HSBC PMI for April slides to 50.5, missing expectations by a full point and against March's read of 51.6. "New export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remain weak," says HSBC. "Weaker overall demand has also started to weigh on employment in the manufacturing sector." Shanghai (FXI, CAF) is off 1.5 in early trade. Hong Kong (EWH) -0.9%. [View news story]
It's just because of Chinese New Year. Wait we used that one already. It's because Easter was early. Mmmm...used that too. Hurricane Sandy? Oh, I got it, unseasonable cold/snowy weather during winter. Bingo! Imagine that.
Amazon's Current Fair Value? Around $75 A Share [View article]
Amazon's current fair value? Well, as I type it's 265. Doesn't matter what anyone "thinks" it should be, the reality is the price now and it's saying 265.
Netflix Valuation: A 'House Of Cards'? [View article]
NFLX appears to be hanging on a thread - barely. When the FB integration news hit, more shorts covered and gave all those who bought above 192 the chance to get out - and they did. Now there's no one wanting to buy a very expensive stock.
Technically and fundamentally this will be back at it's 50dma around 160 very quickly. If you're feeling lucky, that might be a place to try and grab a few shares. But it would be luck.
With no catalyst to the upside any negative news will plummet this.
Netflix (NFLX -1.4%) slips with rumors of new original content from streaming rivals sitting in the background. The move could be overblown given the company is an early adopter on programming and has a well-received hit on its hands with House of Cards. On the other hand, with shares up 97% YTD, the need to blow off a little steam isn't unfathomable. [View news story]
Actually news of costs to produce "House of Cards" much higher than anyone thought. That's hurting this more than competition for original content.
Why P/E Doesn't Mean Netflix Is Overpriced [View article]
Really, don't compare NFLX to AMZN. I won't defend AMZN's valuation either but they have everything from the world's biggest ecommerce biz to leading cloud services to an insane distribution system. Oh yeah, and they stream content on devices that they sell.
Can't really see how NFLX comes even remotely close to that biz model.
Amazon.com Is Poised To Deliver Strong 4Q Results; Shares Could Reach $300 [View article]
If you're long and the mean PT is $300 with the stock opening at 283 on Monday, you might be a bit nervous considering AAPL was at 300 and analysts' mean PT was roughly 750 at the time.
Amazon.com Is Poised To Deliver Strong 4Q Results; Shares Could Reach $300 [View article]
To get to $300 after ER would imply a 9%+ move higher from here. AMZN has been up over 20% since its last ER. With a very small short interest (about 2%), there isn't a whole lot of fuel to move this higher on a squeeze. A 9% gain on a stock that's been on a nice run with no short interest is unlikely.
However, on the flip side, a miss will really punish this. It's easy to see 20% chopped off quickly. Remember last Q ER, it dropped $20 in a flash. Yes, it recovered AH but it's easy to see how jittery traders are to the downside with AMZN
Very odd that there are so many negative comments Q after Q about AMZN yet the short interest is minuscule. As with everything in the market, if sentiment is skewed so sharply one way, it will go the opposite.
AMZN likely will show huge revenues last Q and will likely beat very low expectations. This will be enough to keep the stock pushing higher. But those who think there will be a NFLX type move on a beat are kidding themselves. AMZN has moved 25% since last ER and up $16 in last two sessions. While they will probably "beat" and move higher, it won't be a massive move. Not enough shorts to squeeze in a very strange paradox of so much negativity yet no one really shorting.
Amazon Should Post Strong Results, But Sales Tax Impact In Question [View article]
I believe the sales tax impact will not hurt AMZN at all. People shop at AMZN for convenience. Also, all those drawing the conclusion that because BBY had better numbers in their ER, it's probably because everyone had great numbers in this space and not due to sales tax.
I expect AMZN will handily beat - that's in the stock price as I type at 284. Margins and outlook are the only question marks but even there I believe the market will give them the benefit of a doubt on this. The ERs in the high flyers this Q have been met with massive buying whether lackluster or strong. AMZN will be no different. They're gunning this for 300/share and we'll likely get there after Tuesday evening.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
As I stated above, it's amazing that money would rotate into AMZN BEFORE ER. Tells you either traders believe it will have a decent report or they don't care if it does or not - it'll keep going up.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
HZLIU: OSTK and NFLX both have very large short interest - especially NFLX. The short interest in AMZN is 2% of the float. Any huge move to the upside on the ER is not going to happen. Yes, some shorts would cover but it would take new money coming in to buy to push it substantially higher on a meet or beat.
Also, there is a lot of money looking for a new home out of AAPL. While most of that poured into AMZN's 25% run from November, there is still some waiting for this ER to commit capital. That could fuel a spike as well. BUT it would take at least a small beat to juice the stock from an ATH at its current valuation.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
Paulo, I'm not ready to buy into the premise that because BBY, EBA and OSTK all did well last Q, that it was at the expense of AMZN. It could easily be that AMZN did well too. Remember, all online shopping records were shattered this past holiday season. So the pie effectively got larger hence the pieces as well.
You may be absolutely correct in that assumption but I'd rather wait until I see the numbers before I make that call.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
Yes, Paulo, it's very complex but AMZN was up on OSTK and NFLX momo and had nothing to do with AAPL. All the money that rotated out of AAPL to AMZN happened already. AMZN is up about 23% since mid November, when money was starting to find a new home away from AAPL.
No one, other than retailers chasing on the back of Cramer types yelling BUY! were buying today. Think about it, with the stock at ATH today why would any big money come in to buy a couple days before the ER? The risk is overwhelmingly to the downside in reaction to the ER. This isn't NFLX with 25% short interest. AMZN has 2%. A huge squeeze to the upside is relatively capped unless it's a major blowout.
Otherwise, at ATH and priced for perfection and possible beat, it can get hit 15% downside in a flash from here. No one would position long here with risk/reward very small to the upside and huge to the downside.
Well the full force of CNBC BubbleHeads are out this eve screaming roll out of AAPL and into AMZN. They see NFLX screaming higher all proclaim that p/e, fundamentals don't matter. No, I'm being serious.
So this is why I believe AMZN can go much higher. The entire time AAPL was getting killed every day, AMZN kept going up. Probably will this time too. They need to keep the game going and are basically sucking people into the "AMZN is the new AAPL but better because Bezos is a genius, etc."
China's flash HSBC PMI for April slides to 50.5, missing expectations by a full point and against March's read of 51.6. "New export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remain weak," says HSBC. "Weaker overall demand has also started to weigh on employment in the manufacturing sector." Shanghai (FXI, CAF) is off 1.5 in early trade. Hong Kong (EWH) -0.9%. [View news story]
It's because Easter was early. Mmmm...used that too.
Hurricane Sandy?
Oh, I got it, unseasonable cold/snowy weather during winter. Bingo! Imagine that.
Amazon's Current Fair Value? Around $75 A Share [View article]
Netflix Valuation: A 'House Of Cards'? [View article]
Technically and fundamentally this will be back at it's 50dma around 160 very quickly. If you're feeling lucky, that might be a place to try and grab a few shares. But it would be luck.
With no catalyst to the upside any negative news will plummet this.
Netflix (NFLX -1.4%) slips with rumors of new original content from streaming rivals sitting in the background. The move could be overblown given the company is an early adopter on programming and has a well-received hit on its hands with House of Cards. On the other hand, with shares up 97% YTD, the need to blow off a little steam isn't unfathomable. [View news story]
Why P/E Doesn't Mean Netflix Is Overpriced [View article]
Can't really see how NFLX comes even remotely close to that biz model.
Amazon.com Is Poised To Deliver Strong 4Q Results; Shares Could Reach $300 [View article]
Amazon.com Is Poised To Deliver Strong 4Q Results; Shares Could Reach $300 [View article]
However, on the flip side, a miss will really punish this. It's easy to see 20% chopped off quickly. Remember last Q ER, it dropped $20 in a flash. Yes, it recovered AH but it's easy to see how jittery traders are to the downside with AMZN
Amazon Is On Fire [View article]
AMZN likely will show huge revenues last Q and will likely beat very low expectations. This will be enough to keep the stock pushing higher. But those who think there will be a NFLX type move on a beat are kidding themselves. AMZN has moved 25% since last ER and up $16 in last two sessions. While they will probably "beat" and move higher, it won't be a massive move. Not enough shorts to squeeze in a very strange paradox of so much negativity yet no one really shorting.
Amazon Should Post Strong Results, But Sales Tax Impact In Question [View article]
Amazon Should Post Strong Results, But Sales Tax Impact In Question [View article]
I expect AMZN will handily beat - that's in the stock price as I type at 284. Margins and outlook are the only question marks but even there I believe the market will give them the benefit of a doubt on this. The ERs in the high flyers this Q have been met with massive buying whether lackluster or strong. AMZN will be no different. They're gunning this for 300/share and we'll likely get there after Tuesday evening.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
Also, there is a lot of money looking for a new home out of AAPL. While most of that poured into AMZN's 25% run from November, there is still some waiting for this ER to commit capital. That could fuel a spike as well. BUT it would take at least a small beat to juice the stock from an ATH at its current valuation.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
You may be absolutely correct in that assumption but I'd rather wait until I see the numbers before I make that call.
The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
No one, other than retailers chasing on the back of Cramer types yelling BUY! were buying today. Think about it, with the stock at ATH today why would any big money come in to buy a couple days before the ER? The risk is overwhelmingly to the downside in reaction to the ER. This isn't NFLX with 25% short interest. AMZN has 2%. A huge squeeze to the upside is relatively capped unless it's a major blowout.
Otherwise, at ATH and priced for perfection and possible beat, it can get hit 15% downside in a flash from here. No one would position long here with risk/reward very small to the upside and huge to the downside.
Amazon's Run: Coming To An End? [View article]
So this is why I believe AMZN can go much higher. The entire time AAPL was getting killed every day, AMZN kept going up. Probably will this time too. They need to keep the game going and are basically sucking people into the "AMZN is the new AAPL but better because Bezos is a genius, etc."
Tough to bet against that crowd.