Seeking Alpha

jroliver77

jroliver77
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jroliver77's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Are utilities headed for a death-spiral? [View news story]
    The long term thesis has merit, however we can not underestimate the intelligence and business management of the utility companies.
    They themselves may be the leaders in creation and maintenance of providing solar to the people. Although margins may squeeze they will not be left in the dust. Through combination of organic development and buyouts. Not great growth opportunity or situation at all but may help utility stock owners to realize that they do not need to go dump all of their holding in fear.
    Dec 23 10:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate worries again rout income favorites [View news story]
    Phattboy- Exactly you understand there will be and may be value now and I agree with that as well but these assets and holdings will not all of the sudden reverse 20-40% losses, if your buying buy slow and if you wait just be on top of it they will not leave you in the dust when things turn around. Be patient.
    Aug 20 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate worries again rout income favorites [View news story]
    Consider the diversification and risk aversion with $REM. Based on the next two years of this situation you may be surprised with Mreits. With short term rates holding steady long term rates increasing their spreads are actually increasing book values will take a hit. The mreits that hedged properly will retain bit more book value but nothing to bank on.
    Aug 20 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate worries again rout income favorites [View news story]
    Yes exactly, I have been trying to be bit ahead of the curve though and see some income assets are being sold off in bulk but in reality will be set up fairly well in rising rate environment. Managed debt global bonds emerging debt high yield short duration convertibles bank loans still selling although perfect for improving economy rising interest rate enviroment, long/short credit funds still like pipelines some bdcs and Private equity/Investment stocks.

    Again on your first point our economy can not sustain this quick burst in rates, Treasuries wont back to peaks but have to at least get some stability above these levels.
    Aug 19 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy (LINE) -5.1% premarket after a weekend Barron's article warns of a sharp drop if the dividend gets cut. LINE's 7.5% dividend yield has supported the company's high unit price even as its fundamentals have faded; in Q1, LINE failed to produce enough cash to cover its distribution, even by its generous measure of distributable cash flow. LNCO -6.8% premarket. [View news story]
    I am also a buyer here, LINE, LNCO
    May 6 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This High-Growth Company Is A Good Addition To Any Portfolio [View article]
    I may just wait until after the ex-date, of course will track everyday but may be excellent entry price that will give me the cushion to stay in for long haul.
    Apr 22 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Japan Vows To Purchase Assets - Next Year [View article]
    Also understand 2014 is the new policy the current policy is still in place and its already at heavy easing levels. The BOJ notes state that the current policy actions will continue to be acted upon and then increased in two years. Can trade this if you would like but mid to lt this is solid position. Logical thought you think just long usdjpy rather than japan equities??
    Jan 24 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum Brands (YUM) warns on China, expecting same-store sales there to be off 6% in Q4 vs. an earlier forecast of -4% thanks to the effect on KFC sales in late December from the poultry contamination issue. The company continues to expect full-year EPS of $3.24. Shares -3% AH. [View news story]
    I think it will take a few qtrs but long run w good mgt it will be in the past. We can also see how other sectors can drive up sales and keep their numbers in line. Ill add to existing positions at 61-63 area.
    Jan 8 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Dividend ETFs: Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    What would you say about the chances of this getting off track with considerable declines and if holding these for long periods of time is similar to holding a leveraged etf like sds for example, any thoughts?? Long MLPL
    Dec 12 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Yield? Beware The Temptations Of Emerging Markets Debt [View article]
    So am I, also tgtrx. The total return view of tpinx. Great manager.
    Dec 12 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Yield? Beware The Temptations Of Emerging Markets Debt [View article]
    Looking at PCY maybe that is where i should have been, higher yld slightly better performance, I am noticing the maturity is more inter-long where as EMB is generally short to Inter

    Upon further research ELD is looking to add momentum as EMB slows, Yuan boost over last few weks is directly correlated with this price action.
    Dec 12 12:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Yield? Beware The Temptations Of Emerging Markets Debt [View article]
    Any thoughts on at least for int time frame swapping into eem currency ELD from EMB, been well over 10% outperformance over last 2 years and eem currency sure has not been trending up example CEW. Looking at holding avg credit rating you have stronger credit make up in in ELD as well. May get a 5%+ return in appreciation over next year.

    I use many of these ETF's and also like TEI, terrific manager and its just as much a currency fund as it is a EMBond fund.
    Dec 11 11:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Overlooking Overvaluation [View article]
    This is a better representation of his return, he has not been growth oriented ever since I have followed him but the strategic fund is solid considering the risk reward, standard dev 6.5, compared to Vanguard balance index, of 12.5.

    YTD 1 Mo 1 Yr 3 Yr * 5 Yr * 10 Yr *

    Fund 1.56 -0.18 0.98 3.59 5.08 6.97
    Van Balance 4.2 6.7

    Even with these numbers you would think he and other larger hedge fund's would subject some capital to an idea not entirely driven by their ultimate macro view. There are always opportunities and windows of opportunity that maybe could have boosted this return an extra 2% or more. If you use this fund or plan on it you just have to understand what it is and what to expect and maybe even consider it an alternative to your bonds if you want something that will not be static fixed income in the next 2-5 yrs as bonds may become increasingly out of favor. The average retail investor and prob half of adviser clients prob didn't make 5% over the last 5 years, many missed majority or all of 2009 and 2010 bounce back years.

    Aside from return I always keep track on what John is saying keeps me level headed and gives me perspective on valuation in overall market terms.
    Nov 30 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Overlooking Overvaluation [View article]
    This will help

    http://bit.ly/11711WK
    Nov 27 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Utility Sector On Discount Plus One For The Radar [View article]
    I also like this boring sectors but to get our goal rate of return we have to add either leverage, risk. I would consider using etf or CEF. XLU will do for the mean reversion trade along with its 4.2% yld, I prefer JXI although volume isn't ideal gives me just over 50% US roughly 30% Europe which gives it the ability to get much larger gains with depressed stocks in that zone. I'd take good look now because as the utilities just did JXI also was way over sold. I am long JXI. Another idea is PDT closed end fund gives some leverage to a stable sector that is now on sale. It is 75% Utilities and also has some preferred stock exposure. Yields about 7%. I am long PDT.
    Nov 23 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
74 Comments
41 Likes