st_marmi

How Low Can This Market Go?

I do not know what are the sources of Mr. Williams but his graph of the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones shows that he assumes that the index increases 10 times in about a century. This means an inflation-adjusted return of approximately 2.3%
If the premium for holding stocks is supposed to be so low then it is not surprising to assume that the Dow should go as low as 2000.
I wholeheartedly prefer to think that the figures given by Jeremy Siegel or in the book "The triumph of Optimists" are more reliable. Then one should expect stocks to deliver a real return of approximately 6% (in the very very long run) and maybe the Dow will never see 2000 again

Yield Curve Versus Stocks On a Decade By Decade Basis

great post! Would it be possible to compare the S&P500 P/E with the Yield curve? I think the correlation should be much more stable
Stefano

S&P 500, Dow Set New Highs: Historical Performance the Following Month

It is interesting to see the list of all periods of 100 days or more between record closing highs for the Dow and S&P 500 on the same day. But the average one month S&P500 change following event is almost exactly equal to the historical average of the one month (=21 trading days) S&P500 change starting from a randomly chosen day, which is actually slightly higher, i.e. 0.70% (easy to check using yahoo data and excel). Perhaps comparing with the 3-12 months change after the event would give a more meaningful figure, have you tried that? Stefano