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  • Arena's Belviq Set To Launch  [View article]
    Jake, the $250M estimate was for 9 months thru the year ending March 31, 2014 which is Eisai's corporate tax year.

    The Coates $150M comment in New York referred to "this year" or 6 months thru December 31, 2013.

    The $250M is about 10% higher sales monthly, but also includes 13 more weeks of ramp-up first year sales time.

    Both are just estimates and likely conservative.
    Jun 5, 2013. 09:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Study Of Arena's Lorcaserin Against The Backdrop Of Several Anti-Obesity Mechanisms  [View article]
    Get the facts straight! To get your 3-3.7% weight loss after 1 year, you included people who dropped out of the clinical trials... So you included several thousand people who only took the Lorcaserin for 1 or 2 or 3 of the 12 months!?! People who it for 12 months lost 11-12% of their body weight!!! Some even 25%.

    Also, you imply that Lorcaserin (Belviq) may not be safe... Sure, we'll know more after millions have taken the medicine for a year or two but Arena has invested more studying the safety of Belviq than any other anti-obesity drug ever! Arena has preformed 20,000 echcardiogram heart valvulopathy tests, more than any other heart or drug study ever. All these physicians and clinicians found no more heart problems in those taking Belviq than those in the placebo groups.
    Jun 4, 2013. 11:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing Arena's Belviq As A Diabesity Drug  [View article]
    Great article KLLJ! Great details. ARNA is a Once-a-Decade buy and hold type of stock like AOL & MSFT of the 90's and AAPL lately! $9B in revenues and $2-$3B in earnings by 2016 may even be a little conservative; but a $30-$50B market capitalization and a ALZN-type chart are quite likely!
    Dec 13, 2012. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AstraZeneca: Dirt Cheap Pharmaceutical Stock With A 6% Yield And Strong Technical Support  [View article]
    AstraZeneca (AZN) is still now GROWING revenues and will continue to grow sales over the next 5 years thru this period of patent expirations because it has an industry-high 88 projects now in clinical trials. Further the company benefits from growth in emerging markets, enlarging health-conscious middle class, and increasing sales in developed markets due to aging populations (baby-boomers here in the U.S.).
    There are many ways to safely profit with the leverage of options or single-stock futures from the very low current market price on AZN.
    Here is a few ways I might play AZN off the top of my head: buy SSF and sell covered calls 10-17% OTM for 20+% per year and eventually getting called for total 30-40% ROI when AZN returns to average Healthcare-Pharma market price, selling selling cash-covered 12 Jan $45. Puts @ $3.30 for probable 48% annualized return or a great buy on the stock at $41.70 below 52w low and heavy support floor (including AstraZ's own stock buybacks), and selling 12 Jan 35-40-45 butterfly put spreads for 39.5% ROI or 237% annualized return.
    Kevin M. Van der Kelen
    I have no positions in AZN or any other security mentioned here. I may initiate position in AZN within 72 hours.
    Nov 26, 2011. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment