Kashyap_Swamy

Crudomania Is Over

"A current Gallup poll indicated that over 50% of the U.S. public has permanently changed their driving habits even though the price of gasoline was less in the 2008 period when compared to like period in 2007"

Bob - Could you please post a reference for this Gallup poll?

In fact, the price of most investable instruments - equities, bonds, commodities - you name it - fell by 20%-40% in 2008. I think financial deleveraging and fear were the major factors...

Someone Has to Lend in 2009: Ideas to Profit

While I agree with the macro thesis, I would suggest some additional research on individual stock names.
For example - Fluor (FLR) already trades at a premium to its peers and almost 50% of its backlog is in the refining sector which is under a lot of pressure to cut back capex. FLR is well-run company with excellent management but at this time, I would play the infrastructure theme with other stocks.

Oil and the Futures Market

I don't think Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) of Oil producing nations would buy oil futures. Remember, buying a future contract also means that you need to take physical delivery! Why would a producer want to buy more oil? If they are just "rolling it" then there would be a HUGE contango in the front months (not just $1-$2).

Don't forget that NYMEX WTI is sweet, light crude. Arab heavy crude (which does not have a futures contract) is trading at $132/ bl. (a $10 discount but not a lot different). I don't think its all speculation...