asdf439

10 Comments

    • ON: Sat Sep 13th 13:29 PM
      Commented on:
      Top 4 Newspaper Stocks
      The problem for MNI and somewhat less GCI is that they used debt to leverage their EPS growth in the past.
      Even with a sucesfull transition from print to web, the web business will be worth significantly less than the old monopolistic cash cow.
      After accounting for debt/interest,there is not much value left for current common shareholders,if any.
      I wonder whether a transition to SaaS,which i believe will happen,won't affect in 10-15 years some of current Software/Consulting giants in a similar way,although they aren't indebted so far.
      Who had expected back 1995,that the web will almost destroy the once foolproof newspaper business?
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    • ON: Wed Sep 10th 17:58 PM
      Commented on:
      Regional Banks: Sensible Choice For Shifting Financial Landscape
      There is no reason why bank-"survivors&q... should be good investments long term.

      IMO banks are facing an ugly future...cheaper ways to reach customers,less branches,higher competition,lower margins as% of deposits,costly layoffs,stagnant or reduced dividends...not necessarily related to current troubles.
      Ask newspaper execs for details...

      For some reasons many investors believe the credit crunch is the ONLY reason why bank stocks got crushed.
      According to my calendar it's 2008,NOT 1990.




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    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 08:30 AM
      Commented on:
      Has Jim Cramer Crossed the Line with Sirius XM?
      This author is posting here positive articles about SIRI almost daily!

      It's not Cramer selling SIRI stock at $1.33.




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    • ON: Wed Aug 20th 09:59 AM
      Commented on:
      Buy Weyerhauser - Cramer's Lightning Round (8/18/08)
      Cramer,the talking 6-week chart, simply tells people to do was right over the last couple of few weeks.

      If the trend continues,he is right,else he is wrong.

      Right now the market is flip-floping a lot,so he is more wrong than right.




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    • ON: Sun Jul 27th 16:49 PM
      Commented on:
      The T. Boone Pickens Approach
      Yes, COP is IMO a sell.

      Higher oil prices don't necessarily mean significantly higher profits over the long term,they only mean higher revenue.
      Profit margins change for most businesses over time and are influenced by many different factors (even political,in this case).
      Profit margins for Big Oil as % of revenue will be certainly lower over the next decade,compared to recent years,the market will correct the windfall-profits,which originated in the huge rise in revenue in recent years.

      Declining industry margins will hit COP stock price and bottom line much harder than XOM/CVX ,because of its debt and generally lower profitability.



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    • ON: Sun Jul 27th 11:29 AM
      Commented on:
      The T. Boone Pickens Approach
      "The analysts are now predicting COP will earn over $13/share in 2008. The stock is currently at $82 and change, which is a 6 month forward PE of just over 6 (!?). On the day their earnings came out, COP traded down, and GM traded up most of the day. Crazy market indeed!"

      Investors are selling COP at 6x forward PE (!?).Crazy...
      Are those selling investors dumb or smart?
      It's easy to understand dumber people,but often hard, to understand people,who are smarter than oneself.

      Time wil tell...





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    • ON: Fri Apr 25th 12:13 PM
      Commented on:
      An Analysis of SiRF's 'Challenging Quarter'
      SIRF is hardly a serious takeover-speculation target.

      "One-trick pony" semiconductor companies,losing market share don't get acquired often. They have some cash on books,therefore the most like scenario is IMO a slow and steady decline over several years.

      View article »
    • ON: Thu Apr 24th 08:05 AM
      Commented on:
      Bill Miller: Credit Panic Ended With Bear Stearns
      Bill Miller waiting for times,when buying cheap stocks will outperform again. Good luck...
      "Fake-Value" investing did well for years and peaked in 2005 and won't come back anytime soon.
      I guess he will sit on his big bets like S,SHLD,EK,AET,C,UNH,an... wait till the "stupid" market catches up with his illusionary "value".
      Iconically it's more likely fundamentals will catch down to market prices IMO.
      Is he still waiting for the market to recognize the value of BSC at $200 and CFC at $80?
      At least he can't average down forever as his funds have outflows.

      Bill Miller proved in recent years he can not differentiate between "Real Value" a cheap "Value Traps".
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Mar 16th 16:08 PM
      Commented on:
      Annaly Capital Management Selloff Overdone
      Buying any kind of investments with 10x leverage in hope they will return more than financing costs,is hardly a viable business model for the long term.
      This is only working as long as there are investors willing to pay enough fo their shares and this can change easily in the future.
      There is no reason why mortgage REITs should even exist,i don't know of any "Corporate-Bond-R... or "S&P500-Stock... investing highly leveraged and issuing new shares to pay dividends as high as their captured outperformance.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue May 1st 08:12 AM
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: Don't Believe Stocks Are Cheap Based On The Fed Model
      The Fed model is an apples to eggs comparison.
      Bond yields contain an "expected future inflation" component and corporate profits don't. Why should the risk premium for stocks over bonds equal to inflation expectations?
      View article »
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