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  • Amarin: How The Co-Promotion Agreement With Kowa Affects Required Sales Targets [View article]
    A lot of assumptions to suit your point of view and to diminish the true significance of the deal. Such thin veil can't fool many...

    It is obvious that Amarin will have a huge financial challenge to during the next three years, especially with additional expenses involving in two lawsuits and the FDA appeal, and prescription growth will be at best at a modest rate. However, this is a brilliant strategic deal for Amarin on many fronts: (1) it will help improve revenue / profit to help cover the aforementioned additional expenses; (2) it will drive prescription growth without Amarin having to outlay the initial financial investment, capturing sufficient market share to weather through challenges posed by potential competitors like Epanova and generic; (3) the short term of the deal - till 2018 (by which point the prescription level is presumably high enough to generate appreciable revenue / profit to render meaningful valuation) - will allow Amarin the flexibility in how to commercialize Vascepa (with its current indication or with an expanded indication) at that time; (4) it will enable Amarin to survive to see the completion of Reduce-It, given its current cash position and projected burn rate, without having to raise capital; (5) it will provide the needed leverage in negotiation to sell the company or partner with another entity; (6) it keeps Amarin's sale force (and Amarin as a whole) small, making Amarin attractive to big pharmas (which already have their own big sale teams) looking for a quick deal to complement their pipelines.
    Apr 1 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Things Really Dismal For Molycorp? [View article]
    You don't know what you are talking about. This article is a waste of time. If you are going to write something for public presentation, at least have some respect for your audience.

    In my previous comments, I summarized what MCP's management has put out there:

    Rare earths miners in general and MCP in particular are in a struggle for their lives with no end in sight. MCP's management has sung the same song over the last four quarters that prices have stabilized and demands have returned to a more normal level while, at the same time, has been blaming their plight on overstocking by customers during the 2011 rare earth "crisis" (when China restricted export) and on illegal mining and export in China. Let's be real: two years' overstocking? Illegal mining and export in one country can drive market prices and demand to the extent that put RE miners worldwide at such risk of extinction? To be honest, I am skeptical. Further, continuing delay in the ramp-up to maximum production (which is the main reason for the over-$1 billion capex), whether because of low demand or production prices are still too high to be profitable, tells me that MCP continues to face more operating losses at least in the foreseeable future. Management has suggested in the last Q3 earning conference call that it expect to achieve break-even in 2014 when both the cracking and chloralkali plants are fully operational at optimal levels, but even that is no guarantee simply because production level is subject to demand and pricing, which at the present there is no reliable sign of life. What's more, much of the products coming out of Mountain Pass is Cerium, which MCP has not been able to find buyers or applications for. Granted that MCP's management has discounted Cerium sale in future revenue, in which case the average price for their product mix is in "the low teens" per kilogram. In the low teens is still not a competitive price level to acquire market shares if, by MCP's management's acknowledgement and initial disclosure, that to be highly competitive prices must be in the $6-8 per kilogram range.

    Regarding Cerium, about 50% of Mountain Pass is Cerium which commands very low prices and MCP cannot even sell all of its Cerium production and, hopelessly, trying to create a market for it with SorbX (used in water treatment). I must emphasize that there is not a big market for Cerium now for MCP to penetrate, so it must CREATE a market for it by wooing municipalities to adopt SorbX. Regarding the heavy metals aspect of MCP's business which is what carries the all the weights, it simply does not produce or sell enough quantity to generate enough profit from operation. It does not produce or sell enough because of its limited heavy rare earth market shares - even after achieving the maximum run rate. MCP is banking on the reception from the renewal energy industry and electric cars manufacturers, but it will take a while because both of these industries are still in infancy. At the same time, the US Defense Dept is facing budget cuts.

    While MCP's cash position, due to its recent equity raise, is sufficient for its operation and planed capex in the near term, without reaching a positive free cash flow in the next three quarters will undoubtedly put MCP under considerable stress where it may need to commit another dilutive capital raise, for, as we know from its public disclosure, that it has had a tough time convincing lender for a credit facility, even when secured by equipment.

    In the last two conference calls and the recent statement released regarding the last equity raise, MCP management blamed illegal mining and export from China for the depressed prices. May I remind you, in every industry, there are illegal/counterfeit products competing with the mainstream "legit" ones. That is the reality that businesses have to deal with and adjust their business models and strategies according. The fact that MCP management sought out a scapegoat for continually losing monies demonstrates its irresponsibility and lack of a viable strategy going forward. YOU CANNOT RUN A BUSINESS HOPING YOUR COMPETITION (BE IT FROM A LEGAL OR ILLEGAL COMPETITOR) DISAPPEAR. Sigh!!!!

    Unless I see convincing signs that things turn around for MCP, I will steer clear of this industry generally and MCP in particular."
    Dec 10 04:57 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Makes A Potentially Attractive Medium-Term Investment [View article]
    Chenz, it seems that you are distraught with AMRN and appear hopeless with owning it. Sell the bloody stock and get rid of your worries. Take the proceeds and invest somewhere else that you think will give you better returns and recover your losses. Holding on and rambling here won't change your misfortune. If you, on the other hand, you should decide to keep your shares, thank the guy upstairs for the courage to accept the reality you cannot change.
    Nov 27 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Are These Stocks Buys At Lows? [View article]
    Rare earths miners in general and MCP in particular are in a struggle for their lives with no end in sight. MCP's management has sung the same song over the last four quarters that prices have stablized and demands have returned to a more normal level while, at the same time, has been blaming their plight on overstocking by customers during the 2011 rare earth "crisis" (when China restricted export) and on illegal mining and export in China. Let's be real: two years' overstocking? Illegal mining and export in one country can drive market prices and demand to the extent that put RE miners worldwide at such risk of extinction? To be honest, I am skeptical. Further, continuing delay in the ramp-up to maximum production (which is the main reason for the over-$1 billion capex), whether because the low of demand or production prices are still too high to be profitable, tells me that MCP continues to face more operating losses at least in the foreseeable future. Management has suggested in the last Q3 earning conference call that it expect to achieve break-even in 2014 when both the cracking and chloralkali plants are fully operational at optimal levels, but even that is no guarantee simply because production level is subject to demand and pricing, which at the present there is to reliable sign of life. What's more, the much of the products coming out of Mountain Pass is Cerium, which MCP has not been able to find buyers or applications for. Granted that MCP's management has discounted Cerium sale in future revenue, in which case the average price for their product mix is in "the low teens" per kilogram. In the low teens is still not a competitive price level to acquire market shares if, by MCP's management's acknowledgement, the initial disclosure that to be highly competitive prices must be in the $6-8 per kilogram range.

    While MCP's cash position, due to its recent equity raise, is sufficient for its operation and planed capex in the near term, without reaching a positive free cash flow in the next three quarters will undoubtedly put MCP under considerable stress where it may need to commit another dilutive capital raise, for, as we know from its public disclosure, that it has had a tough time convincing lender for a credit facility, even when secured by equipment.

    Unless I see convincing signs that things turn around for MCP, I will steer clear of this industry generally and MCP in particular.
    Nov 26 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Makes A Potentially Attractive Medium-Term Investment [View article]
    Thanks for a balanced article. Amrn is now a long-term play, indeed, with lots of upside potential. I agree that the key now is cash management and script drive to generate greater revenue. If management can avoid another equity raise between now and the end of 2016, a good argument can be made for accumulate amrn on the cheap.
    Nov 22 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Makes A Potentially Attractive Medium-Term Investment [View article]
    Well said. But I must say that AMRN has an approved product on the market and a lot of things are in the works. Upsides mean risks, but at the current price, a good argument can be made that the bet is worth considering.
    Nov 22 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on FDA - Amarin [View news story]
    The FDA has not accepted the appeal on PROCEDURAL ground and has not adjudicated on the merit. This is a normal process when any agency / forum is operated with guidelines and rules ... to create fairness among people / entities working with the agency. While the appeal (and for that matter, the fight for ANCHOR) is a difficult, uphill battle from the beginning, outside experts and specialists have advised to appeal given the compelling facts of the case. Hurdles -- challenging and frustrating -- have been and to be expected. No one assumes that it would be a walk in the park. Nevertheless, given the compelling set of facts in this case, there is a good chance that AMRN will prevail. We shall see.
    Nov 22 09:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The FDA Got It Wrong And Why It Will Approve Vascepa For ANCHOR SNDA Submission [View article]
    We leave that to the docs to make the call. Regarding ANCHOR, the FDA must decide only on the indication submission put before it, and nothing else. ANCHOR presents the question "Is Vascepa effective and safe in lowering high TG?" Nothing else. The FDA cannot address what is not sought in the indication; otherwise, it would be a long slippery slope, right?
    Nov 20 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The FDA Got It Wrong And Why It Will Approve Vascepa For ANCHOR SNDA Submission [View article]
    It must be reminded that AMRN does not seek an indication of reducing the CV risks with the ANCHOR sNDA. The indication of reducing CV risks will be the next sNDA submission after REDUCE-It is completed. As for ANCHOR, it only seeks to expand the existing label to cover patients with high TG, without mentioning of the CV benefits.
    Nov 19 10:30 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin And The Universal Biotech Catastrophe Playbook [View article]
    Thanks for a refreshing post, something demonstrating knowledge and thoughtfulness. Regarding the claim that the FDA has never reneged on an SPA, it is not entirely accurate. The FDA actually has.
    Oct 24 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Trends For Rare Earths Tell The Whole Molycorp Story [View article]
    Jumping off a cliff is also a high risk thing to do. Is there a reward to that? Buying securities of a company that is in a hole, no pun intended, does not necessarily mean that it is a risk a smart investor should do looking for reward, right?
    Oct 24 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Trends For Rare Earths Tell The Whole Molycorp Story [View article]
    That was the thinking when Mountain Pass was reopened. But technology companies or car makers (e.g., Toyota, Tesla or even Ford) that make electric cars do not want the headache of TRYING to run a mining company ... it is not their business models ... because their diversification is in their product lines, not business lines. They are simply not conglomerates. What makes better sense for these companies to secure the rare earth metals they need is entering a long-term supply contract with miners like MCP (meaning that the miner will supply all or X% of their needs) but such a contract does not guarantee success for the supplier-miner because, if I were to negotiate the contract on behalf of the buyer, prices would be based on the commanding market prices. We all know how well MCP and rest of the rare earth miners outside of China have fared in the price competition thus far. MCP was once shut down for a reason we all are well aware of. In the last two conference calls and the recent statement released regarding the last equity raise, MCP management blamed illegal mining and export from China for the depressed prices. May I remind you, in every industry, there are illegal/counterfeit products competing with the mainstream "legit" ones. That is the reality that businesses have to deal with and adjust their business models and strategies according. The fact that MCP management sought out a scapegoat for continually losing monies demonstrates its irresponsibility and lack of a viable strategy going forward. YOU CANNOT RUN A BUSINESS HOPING YOUR COMPETITION (BE IT FROM A LEGAL OR ILLEGAL COMPETITOR) DISAPPEAR. Sigh!!!!
    Oct 24 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Trends For Rare Earths Tell The Whole Molycorp Story [View article]
    It would be round 2 for China's rare earth industry vs. MCP and the rest, and the rare earth industry outside of China is barely keeping up the onslaught. MCP has risen equity twice within the last 12 months or so even though it is the largest / leader outside of China. Think about that! Yes, its two significant plants (chloralkali and cracking facilities) have been complete and are expected to contribute to lowering production cost, but about 50% of Mountain Pass is Cerium which commands very low prices and MCP cannot even sell all of its Cerium production and, hopelessly, trying to create a market for it with SorbX (used in water treatment). I must emphasize that there is not a big market for Cerium now for MCP to penetrate, so it must CREATE a market for it by wooing municipalities to adopt SorbX. Regarding the heavy metals aspect of MCP's business which is what carries the all the weights, it simply does not produce or sell enough quantity to generate enough profit from operation. It does not produce or sell enough because of its limited heavy rare earth market shares - even after achieving the maximum run rate. MCP is banking on the reception from the renewal energy industry and electric cars manufacturers, but it will take a while because both of these industries are still in infancy. At the same time, the US Defense Dept is facing budget cuts. While I do not have a crystal ball, I would wager that MCP will have to really restructure its business to stay in business and even another equity raise to finance buy its additional time.
    Oct 24 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Trends For Rare Earths Tell The Whole Molycorp Story [View article]
    At least we still have someone who is honest. Thanks, airlarr. MCP is a falling knife, and I wouldn't try to catch it before it lands on the ground. I think it's always wiser to be patient and wait for it to land first, then pick it up, lest getting a bleeding hand and cost of a hospital visit, right?
    Oct 24 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    But the studies since the SPA were not with EPA, right? ... and the science has changed with regard to the lowering to TG which is the substance and goal of the SPA, not reducing CV risk. What say you?
    Oct 17 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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