Camden

Selling Most of Fuel Systems on a Spike

I can understand your dismissing the latest GDP number but are you dismissing the TREND of the past 6 months? The trend (and history) would seem to indicate one should believe GDP is indeed headed higher and that employment will follow in about two quarters. That has historically been an excellent time to be fully invested.

Apple Financial Gauge Analysis for September 2009 Quarter

Being this is the first I've heard of your gauge, I'm not sure what what you intend it to convey. That said, I suggest you recalibrate the gauge so that it is GDP-adjusted (perhaps using world GDP). Comparing growth figures during a horrendous recession to earlier periods disguises the health of the company. In my opinion there is NO QUESTION Apple is a stronger, healthier company today than it was at any time in the past decade .

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

Re: "21 BCF natural gas is 21 million TCF"

Care to explain that?

Natural Gas: Extreme Contango Suggests Caution for E&P Companies

Excellent article. Thanks.

What an Apple Tablet Has to Be

You need to think different. Think bigger (in terms of world impact) and think education. You heard it from Camden. Education.

Baidu: Low Risk Options Play

It would have been good if in addition to pointing out the possible benefit of buying Baidu’s Jan ’11 $350 calls at $80.80 per contract you not only mentioned that the breakeven point would then be approximately $430.80 but also that if the stock stays at $350 or lower 100% of the investment would be lost.

I love using LEAPS but you have to be aware of the risk..

Crocs: Patience Is a Virtue

Re: "Those who spent the time needed to understand the business and the balance sheet have been greatly rewarded as the market has finally recognized fair value."

I agree with Idiotbuster. In November there was no way of knowing Crox would not go out of business. There was nothing in filings that indicated management had taken the necessary steps to stave off bankruptcy. Yes it worked out (so far), but there was no way to know it would until the announcement.

Crocs: Patience Is a Virtue

Re: "Those who spent the time needed to understand the business and the balance sheet have been greatly rewarded as the market has finally recognized fair value."

I agree with Idiotbuster. In November there was no way of knowing Crox would not go out of business. There was nothing in filings that indicated management had taken the necessary steps to stave off bankruptcy. Yes it worked out (so far), but there was no way to know it would until the announcement.

Bargain of the Week: First Solar

Excellent article and some excellent replies. I think there valid argruments to be made on both sides. Whether or not FSLR is currently a good investment will depend on several factors mentioned above and some others, including:
1. It's ability to keep lowering it's cost/watt.
2. It's ability to maintain it's margins
3. How fast demand picks up for the solar industry as a whole
4. How fast the cost of producing polysilicon decreases
5. If the supply of polysilicon can keep up with demand (if it outpaces demand the price will fall to about production cost and stay there until demand picks up dramtically
6. The advancement of competing technologies
7. Passage of government legislation

My guess is that First Solar is likely to see it's margins compress as competition heats up. That will likely cause further PE compression. Earnings may increase without much increase in stock price. I've been invested in FSLR for most of the past three years and it's been a good ride. I suspect they will stay the leader (in terms of profits) for at least another two years due to long term contracts already in place if nothing else. Competitors have a LONG way to go to catch up. I'd also guess the future holds MUCH less annual stock price appreciation going forward. My stock position has been cut 75%. I need to see how this current situation plays out over the coming year before taking what I consider to be a "full" position again.

AT&T: The (Apple) Brand Destroyer

I agree with the above comments that this article is not worthy of S.A. While there are a few interesting bits of information on the whole I found it garbage. I think the author may a bit off his rocker.

Should the FCC Force Apple to Stock Competitive Products in Its Own Store?

I think his points make fine sense with regard to ATT. Also, there is NO question of monopolistic power here. You say yourself that ATT is one of FOUR companies that share 90% of the U.S. market. That certainly sounds like strong compition to me. What's good for consumers in the short run isn't necessarily good for the market or consumers in the long run. Take away the carriers profits and we'll watch the networks deteriorate. ATT is already getting grief for the quality of it's network service (it can't keep up with booming data traffic).

I certainly agree with the concept that a service provider should be able to provide the service it desires to provide as long as there is a public good. The FCC should be able to control the use of the public spectrum (to prevent harm to the public) but not to the point of dictating what content each and every provider must provide.


On Aug 02 12:05 PM Murphy Mac wrote:

> Some of your points make sense with regard to Apple, but not with
> regard to AT&T. AT&T is one of four carriers who control
> approximately 90% of the U.S. market.
>
> A Google Voice app is mostly a threat to AT&T's SMS business,
> as it allows sending and receiving of free SMS messages. Goodbye
> twenty dollars a month for unlimited texting. Indirectly, Google
> Voice as a whole is a threat as people can use their landlines for
> free long distance instead of chewing up cellular minutes.
>
> With that in mind, I'm happy to see the FCC poke a stick at this.
> I doubt anything will come of it. But maybe someone besides Senator
> Herb Kohl will question why the carriers have established twenty
> cents as the cost of an SMS message when industry experts claim the
> actual cost is negligible. That price points to collusion by the
> monopoly carriers.
>
> AT&T might rethink their whole stance: Google Voice could make
> using voice services bearable again, a goal the carriers have not
> lifted a finger to achieve. Voice minutes are hugely profitable,
> especially when the plans require purchasing more minutes than someone
> wants to use. I suspect Google Voice will lead to me using voice
> minutes more often. It would be interesting to know what AT&T
> thinks of that possibility.

Apple iPhone's Substantial Impact on Gross Margin

It's a bit surprising this article only had a few comments. This is BY FAR the best analysis I read on Apple in recent months. Thanks for the great work Turley!

How Much Are Apple's 45 Million Users Worth?

Excellent article.

Five Reasons I'm Long Apple

reagan,

Do you know what "exponentially" means?


On Jul 27 03:17 PM reagan wrote:

> Sorry, Camden. That's hardly an "exaggeration".Get a grip.

Five Reasons I'm Long Apple

Mauneel, I think you make some good points and do a pretty good job of explaining many of the positives Apple has going for investors. I suggest you write a bit more concisely and stay away from making exaggerated comments like "the loyal Apple following is increasing exponentially", which it clearly is not. Nice article.