Camden's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/76558/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170158-selling-most-of-fuel-systems-on-a-spike?source=feed#comment-736934 736934 Fri, 30 Oct 2009 10:08:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168121-apple-financial-gauge-analysis-for-september-2009-quarter?source=feed#comment-727995 727995 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 21:23:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164713-how-much-natural-gas-remains-in-the-usa?source=feed#comment-703180 703180
Care to explain that?]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:33:40 -0400
Care to explain that?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160093-natural-gas-extreme-contango-suggests-caution-for-e-p-companies?source=feed#comment-664801 664801 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 01:29:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160095-what-an-apple-tablet-has-to-be?source=feed#comment-664672 664672 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:59:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158316-baidu-low-risk-options-play?source=feed#comment-647712 647712
I love using LEAPS but you have to be aware of the risk..]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:51:03 -0400
I love using LEAPS but you have to be aware of the risk..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155852-crocs-patience-is-a-virtue?source=feed#comment-628987 628987
I agree with Idiotbuster. In November there was no way of knowing Crox would not go out of business. There was nothing in filings that indicated management had taken the necessary steps to stave off bankruptcy. Yes it worked out (so far), but there was no way to know it would until the announcement. ]]> Thu, 13 Aug 2009 18:43:08 -0400
I agree with Idiotbuster. In November there was no way of knowing Crox would not go out of business. There was nothing in filings that indicated management had taken the necessary steps to stave off bankruptcy. Yes it worked out (so far), but there was no way to know it would until the announcement. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155852-crocs-patience-is-a-virtue?source=feed#comment-628931 628931
I agree with Idiotbuster. In November there was no way of knowing Crox would not go out of business. There was nothing in filings that indicated management had taken the necessary steps to stave off bankruptcy. Yes it worked out (so far), but there was no way to know it would until the announcement. ]]> Thu, 13 Aug 2009 18:30:28 -0400
I agree with Idiotbuster. In November there was no way of knowing Crox would not go out of business. There was nothing in filings that indicated management had taken the necessary steps to stave off bankruptcy. Yes it worked out (so far), but there was no way to know it would until the announcement. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154289-bargain-of-the-week-first-solar?source=feed#comment-621206 621206 1. It's ability to keep lowering it's cost/watt.
2. It's ability to maintain it's margins
3. How fast demand picks up for the solar industry as a whole
4. How fast the cost of producing polysilicon decreases
5. If the supply of polysilicon can keep up with demand (if it outpaces demand the price will fall to about production cost and stay there until demand picks up dramtically
6. The advancement of competing technologies
7. Passage of government legislation

My guess is that First Solar is likely to see it's margins compress as competition heats up. That will likely cause further PE compression. Earnings may increase without much increase in stock price. I've been invested in FSLR for most of the past three years and it's been a good ride. I suspect they will stay the leader (in terms of profits) for at least another two years due to long term contracts already in place if nothing else. Competitors have a LONG way to go to catch up. I'd also guess the future holds MUCH less annual stock price appreciation going forward. My stock position has been cut 75%. I need to see how this current situation plays out over the coming year before taking what I consider to be a "full" position again.]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 15:42:57 -0400 1. It's ability to keep lowering it's cost/watt.
2. It's ability to maintain it's margins
3. How fast demand picks up for the solar industry as a whole
4. How fast the cost of producing polysilicon decreases
5. If the supply of polysilicon can keep up with demand (if it outpaces demand the price will fall to about production cost and stay there until demand picks up dramtically
6. The advancement of competing technologies
7. Passage of government legislation

My guess is that First Solar is likely to see it's margins compress as competition heats up. That will likely cause further PE compression. Earnings may increase without much increase in stock price. I've been invested in FSLR for most of the past three years and it's been a good ride. I suspect they will stay the leader (in terms of profits) for at least another two years due to long term contracts already in place if nothing else. Competitors have a LONG way to go to catch up. I'd also guess the future holds MUCH less annual stock price appreciation going forward. My stock position has been cut 75%. I need to see how this current situation plays out over the coming year before taking what I consider to be a "full" position again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153824-at-t-the-apple-brand-destroyer?source=feed#comment-616956 616956 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:48:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153174-should-the-fcc-force-apple-to-stock-competitive-products-in-its-own-store?source=feed#comment-612187 612187
I certainly agree with the concept that a service provider should be able to provide the service it desires to provide as long as there is a public good. The FCC should be able to control the use of the public spectrum (to prevent harm to the public) but not to the point of dictating what content each and every provider must provide.


On Aug 02 12:05 PM Murphy Mac wrote:

> Some of your points make sense with regard to Apple, but not with
> regard to AT&T. AT&T is one of four carriers who control
> approximately 90% of the U.S. market.
>
> A Google Voice app is mostly a threat to AT&T's SMS business,
> as it allows sending and receiving of free SMS messages. Goodbye
> twenty dollars a month for unlimited texting. Indirectly, Google
> Voice as a whole is a threat as people can use their landlines for
> free long distance instead of chewing up cellular minutes.
>
> With that in mind, I'm happy to see the FCC poke a stick at this.
> I doubt anything will come of it. But maybe someone besides Senator
> Herb Kohl will question why the carriers have established twenty
> cents as the cost of an SMS message when industry experts claim the
> actual cost is negligible. That price points to collusion by the
> monopoly carriers.
>
> AT&T might rethink their whole stance: Google Voice could make
> using voice services bearable again, a goal the carriers have not
> lifted a finger to achieve. Voice minutes are hugely profitable,
> especially when the plans require purchasing more minutes than someone
> wants to use. I suspect Google Voice will lead to me using voice
> minutes more often. It would be interesting to know what AT&T
> thinks of that possibility.]]> Sun, 02 Aug 2009 20:57:33 -0400
I certainly agree with the concept that a service provider should be able to provide the service it desires to provide as long as there is a public good. The FCC should be able to control the use of the public spectrum (to prevent harm to the public) but not to the point of dictating what content each and every provider must provide.


On Aug 02 12:05 PM Murphy Mac wrote:

> Some of your points make sense with regard to Apple, but not with
> regard to AT&T. AT&T is one of four carriers who control
> approximately 90% of the U.S. market.
>
> A Google Voice app is mostly a threat to AT&T's SMS business,
> as it allows sending and receiving of free SMS messages. Goodbye
> twenty dollars a month for unlimited texting. Indirectly, Google
> Voice as a whole is a threat as people can use their landlines for
> free long distance instead of chewing up cellular minutes.
>
> With that in mind, I'm happy to see the FCC poke a stick at this.
> I doubt anything will come of it. But maybe someone besides Senator
> Herb Kohl will question why the carriers have established twenty
> cents as the cost of an SMS message when industry experts claim the
> actual cost is negligible. That price points to collusion by the
> monopoly carriers.
>
> AT&T might rethink their whole stance: Google Voice could make
> using voice services bearable again, a goal the carriers have not
> lifted a finger to achieve. Voice minutes are hugely profitable,
> especially when the plans require purchasing more minutes than someone
> wants to use. I suspect Google Voice will lead to me using voice
> minutes more often. It would be interesting to know what AT&T
> thinks of that possibility.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152059-apple-iphone-s-substantial-impact-on-gross-margin?source=feed#comment-609682 609682 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:04:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/152147-how-much-are-apple-s-45-million-users-worth?source=feed#comment-606521 606521 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:25:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151594-five-reasons-i-m-long-apple?source=feed#comment-605414 605414
Do you know what "exponentially" means?


On Jul 27 03:17 PM reagan wrote:

> Sorry, Camden. That's hardly an "exaggeration".Get a grip.]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:50:46 -0400
Do you know what "exponentially" means?


On Jul 27 03:17 PM reagan wrote:

> Sorry, Camden. That's hardly an "exaggeration".Get a grip.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151594-five-reasons-i-m-long-apple?source=feed#comment-604005 604005 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 15:04:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151137-why-apple-s-itouch-tablet-will-become-its-flagship-product?source=feed#comment-601598 601598 Fri, 24 Jul 2009 23:42:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149235-apple-asks-microsoft-to-quit-running-those-laptop-hunters-ads?source=feed#comment-592384 592384 ]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:41:21 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147462-10-reasons-not-to-buy-apple?source=feed#comment-579084 579084 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:46:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139273-apple-s-next-releases-need-to-live-up-to-expectations?source=feed#comment-515854 515854 Sun, 24 May 2009 01:27:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135855-10-reasons-apple-will-sell-iphone-via-more-u-s-telcos?source=feed#comment-494716 494716 Thu, 07 May 2009 18:41:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136076-speculating-on-the-emergence-of-an-iconsole?source=feed#comment-494257 494257 Thu, 07 May 2009 14:23:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134750-week-in-review-part-i-global-economics-international-and-u-s-equity-markets-overview?source=feed#comment-487674 487674
I hope you post those charts again in the future. It's good to get a big-picture look at what is going on. Looking at the weekly S&P it is clear the market still has A LOT of upside before getting anywhere close to a even 50% retracement of the 2008 crash. Also interesting is the recent out-performance of the Russell 2000 stocks. That move seems to be rolling over.]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 14:32:13 -0400
I hope you post those charts again in the future. It's good to get a big-picture look at what is going on. Looking at the weekly S&P it is clear the market still has A LOT of upside before getting anywhere close to a even 50% retracement of the 2008 crash. Also interesting is the recent out-performance of the Russell 2000 stocks. That move seems to be rolling over.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134518-cramer-s-mad-money-hey-apple-chips-are-not-a-commodity-4-30-09?source=feed#comment-485707 485707
I would add "... for Apple."

Of course how big a deal it becomes depends on Apple's ability to produce "more capable" chips in a timely, cost efficient manner.

Apple continues to up the ante for the competition. That bodes well for Apple and it's shareholders.


On May 01 09:46 AM Timeline Strategy Consulting wrote:

> Consider the context in which Apple operates. If they lack the capacity
> to design and fabricate their own chips, then they either: (1) subject
> themselves to whims of market pricing, long lead times, process runs
> of millions and millions of units; or (2) partner with, and pre-pay,
> a supplier who will dedicate capacity to Apple's specific needs.
>
>
> Either way, they are effectively held hostage by chipmaking capacity,
> which is theoretically able to be purchased by any company. In that
> sense it is a commodity.
>
> Apple is thinking many years ahead with this move. The basis of their
> strategy is that the separation between semiconductor and device
> manufacturers hurts product development cycles, as the device manufacturers
> are subject to the above dynamics. They will be able to design, produce,
> and test chips with extremely fast turnaround, and greatly speed
> the development cycle.
>
> This will turn out to be a big deal.]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 12:08:12 -0400
I would add "... for Apple."

Of course how big a deal it becomes depends on Apple's ability to produce "more capable" chips in a timely, cost efficient manner.

Apple continues to up the ante for the competition. That bodes well for Apple and it's shareholders.


On May 01 09:46 AM Timeline Strategy Consulting wrote:

> Consider the context in which Apple operates. If they lack the capacity
> to design and fabricate their own chips, then they either: (1) subject
> themselves to whims of market pricing, long lead times, process runs
> of millions and millions of units; or (2) partner with, and pre-pay,
> a supplier who will dedicate capacity to Apple's specific needs.
>
>
> Either way, they are effectively held hostage by chipmaking capacity,
> which is theoretically able to be purchased by any company. In that
> sense it is a commodity.
>
> Apple is thinking many years ahead with this move. The basis of their
> strategy is that the separation between semiconductor and device
> manufacturers hurts product development cycles, as the device manufacturers
> are subject to the above dynamics. They will be able to design, produce,
> and test chips with extremely fast turnaround, and greatly speed
> the development cycle.
>
> This will turn out to be a big deal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133832-apple-s-media-tablet-will-cause-the-stock-to-rocket?source=feed#comment-482672 482672 Re: "However I feel a little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund. You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold, and especially when to sell it."

$1000 put into Apple 5 years ago is now worth more than $7700. You feel a little sad for those that buy and hold??? When did you start investing?




On Apr 29 09:30 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

> No matter what Apple comes out with, there is a loud cry from the
> people expecting to be rich holding Apple stock, "the stock will
> go up". I love it, as I have been long and/or short Apple stock
> over the past two years and enjoyed trading it. However I feel a
> little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and
> hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund.
> You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold,
> and especially when to sell it. Be careful going into the next quarterly
> numbers report. The stock price usually goes up about two weeks
> ahead of the report, it has become very predictable. When something
> becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps. Good luck
> trading everyone!]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 11:47:35 -0400 Re: "However I feel a little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund. You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold, and especially when to sell it."

$1000 put into Apple 5 years ago is now worth more than $7700. You feel a little sad for those that buy and hold??? When did you start investing?




On Apr 29 09:30 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

> No matter what Apple comes out with, there is a loud cry from the
> people expecting to be rich holding Apple stock, "the stock will
> go up". I love it, as I have been long and/or short Apple stock
> over the past two years and enjoyed trading it. However I feel a
> little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and
> hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund.
> You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold,
> and especially when to sell it. Be careful going into the next quarterly
> numbers report. The stock price usually goes up about two weeks
> ahead of the report, it has become very predictable. When something
> becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps. Good luck
> trading everyone!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133832-apple-s-media-tablet-will-cause-the-stock-to-rocket?source=feed#comment-482543 482543 Re:"When something becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps."
How does a trader set a trap?


On Apr 29 09:30 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

> No matter what Apple comes out with, there is a loud cry from the
> people expecting to be rich holding Apple stock, "the stock will
> go up". I love it, as I have been long and/or short Apple stock
> over the past two years and enjoyed trading it. However I feel a
> little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and
> hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund.
> You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold,
> and especially when to sell it. Be careful going into the next quarterly
> numbers report. The stock price usually goes up about two weeks
> ahead of the report, it has become very predictable. When something
> becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps. Good luck
> trading everyone!]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 10:45:16 -0400 Re:"When something becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps."
How does a trader set a trap?


On Apr 29 09:30 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

> No matter what Apple comes out with, there is a loud cry from the
> people expecting to be rich holding Apple stock, "the stock will
> go up". I love it, as I have been long and/or short Apple stock
> over the past two years and enjoyed trading it. However I feel a
> little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and
> hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund.
> You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold,
> and especially when to sell it. Be careful going into the next quarterly
> numbers report. The stock price usually goes up about two weeks
> ahead of the report, it has become very predictable. When something
> becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps. Good luck
> trading everyone!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133481-jobs-integrity-a-reason-to-buy-apple?source=feed#comment-480708 480708 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:19:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133201-mr-roubini-please-take-a-seat?source=feed#comment-478287 478287

On Apr 26 02:25 PM mtt04 wrote:

> I'd ask a simple question of the writer - where were you 6 months
> ago?
>
> oh yeah having your trading head handed to you most likely.
>
> No where to go but up eh?
>
> We'll see. Oh one more thing, notice the 1000's of ships sitting
> in Asia with nothing to do? what it that about I wonder.
>
> Roubini was right - there is no argument for you.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:15:07 -0400

On Apr 26 02:25 PM mtt04 wrote:

> I'd ask a simple question of the writer - where were you 6 months
> ago?
>
> oh yeah having your trading head handed to you most likely.
>
> No where to go but up eh?
>
> We'll see. Oh one more thing, notice the 1000's of ships sitting
> in Asia with nothing to do? what it that about I wonder.
>
> Roubini was right - there is no argument for you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133115-looks-like-we-re-still-a-blackberry-nation?source=feed#comment-478077 478077 --------------------

Anyone that studies Apple's business should know they only play in the premium marketplace – at each price level. Many people thought that when Apple had to compete with lower priced MP3 competition they would not succeed. However by always delivering the best (premium) quality player in the price category [see the Shuffle] Apple has maintained it's 70%+ market share.

I suspect that 10 years from now Apple will provide a variety of products that use the iPhone Mobile OS platform and each will provide the "premium level" of value in it's price range.

RIM will continue to do well. They are an excellent company with an excellent product portfolio. There is and will continue to be plenty of room for both companies to prosper. Nokia probably has the most to lose by the growth of the smartphone category.

----------------------...
On another subject... Will 2009 be the year Apple's marketcap surpasses that of Microsoft? It may be close.


On Apr 26 05:25 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> I think the target markets are vastly different for the two phones.
> Blackberry has always been a great success targeting itself for businesses
> and business applications. iPhone is the high end consumer market.
> Extraordinarily different targets.
>
> As long as apple retains it's premium luster and margins they will
> do fine. They need to fork a lot more in R&D to stay ahead of
> the consumer cell phone market. If it finds itself fighting in the
> mid market phones a decade later it's business model will clearly
> be in trouble.
>
> I also agree with the author that the AT&T alliance is not beneficial
> to the long term marketshare for Apple, although I understand Apple's
> perspective. Its quaint revenue sharing model is quite profitable.
> AT&T need Apple more than Apple needs them, so naturally AT&T
> had to pony up ridiculous revenue for the deal which no other sane
> carrier would dream of giving. Still locking yourself in with a carrier
> naturally limits and detracts those who could and probably would
> have bought your product otherwise.
>
> The mobile phone market is always a fun market to watch. Apple's
> entry was a game changer. Let's see if they can keep the momentum.
> I am also eager to see the effects Google will have on this market.
> This market is still evolving at an incredible pace. Even with a
> recession, I don't see evolution slowing in this segment.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:31:21 -0400 --------------------

Anyone that studies Apple's business should know they only play in the premium marketplace – at each price level. Many people thought that when Apple had to compete with lower priced MP3 competition they would not succeed. However by always delivering the best (premium) quality player in the price category [see the Shuffle] Apple has maintained it's 70%+ market share.

I suspect that 10 years from now Apple will provide a variety of products that use the iPhone Mobile OS platform and each will provide the "premium level" of value in it's price range.

RIM will continue to do well. They are an excellent company with an excellent product portfolio. There is and will continue to be plenty of room for both companies to prosper. Nokia probably has the most to lose by the growth of the smartphone category.

----------------------...
On another subject... Will 2009 be the year Apple's marketcap surpasses that of Microsoft? It may be close.


On Apr 26 05:25 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> I think the target markets are vastly different for the two phones.
> Blackberry has always been a great success targeting itself for businesses
> and business applications. iPhone is the high end consumer market.
> Extraordinarily different targets.
>
> As long as apple retains it's premium luster and margins they will
> do fine. They need to fork a lot more in R&D to stay ahead of
> the consumer cell phone market. If it finds itself fighting in the
> mid market phones a decade later it's business model will clearly
> be in trouble.
>
> I also agree with the author that the AT&T alliance is not beneficial
> to the long term marketshare for Apple, although I understand Apple's
> perspective. Its quaint revenue sharing model is quite profitable.
> AT&T need Apple more than Apple needs them, so naturally AT&T
> had to pony up ridiculous revenue for the deal which no other sane
> carrier would dream of giving. Still locking yourself in with a carrier
> naturally limits and detracts those who could and probably would
> have bought your product otherwise.
>
> The mobile phone market is always a fun market to watch. Apple's
> entry was a game changer. Let's see if they can keep the momentum.
> I am also eager to see the effects Google will have on this market.
> This market is still evolving at an incredible pace. Even with a
> recession, I don't see evolution slowing in this segment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131908-banking-uncertainty-it-s-back?source=feed#comment-473574 473574 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:20:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131117-at-t-complains-about-google-apple-coopetition?source=feed#comment-465648 465648
]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 15:43:43 -0400
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