Camden

Six Stocks to Buy, Five Stocks to Short

InestLikeaPro
Congrats on your trading record! Fifteen straight years over 9% is amazing. I'd say that puts you in the top one-half of one percent of all investors. I can claim a very good 15 year record but had a loss in 2002.

1. I wasn't preaching, I was giving honest opinion based on 33 years on investment experience.
2. I happen to be a rather aggressive investor/trader. I rarely have less than 15 positions active and I'm currently up 42% YTD. Yes, the markets recent volatility hit my portfolio as well – I was up 50% a week ago.
3. I reiterate that someone that loses 22% of their portfolio on a day in which the indexes are down less than 4% IS gambling (or one of the world's worst traders).

Now I'll preach. Hate is a very destructive emotion. You'll likely live a better life if you can reduce it. Lighten up and learn to take others constructive criticism as a gift. There is often much to be learned from points of view that differ from your own.

Six Stocks to Buy, Five Stocks to Short

I appreciate your honesty in saying "The stock market has become too volatile to handle for many people, including me." I hope you will take the following as well-intended constructive criticism:

Anyone that loses over 20% of their portfolio's value in one day (especially a day with the indexes down less than 4%) should NOT be giving anyone financial advice. Heavy selling in two stocks gives you a 22% portfolio loss??? You shouldn't have a 22% loss even if Apple goes to zero. Clearly you are gambling, not investing properly.

Secondly, if you dread turning on CNBC because there is likely to be more bad news, you shouldn't be giving investment advice. It shows you are too emotionally immature to handle something as important as investment advice.
I hope you go on to get your finance degree and that it leads to a successful career. However at this time I sincerely suggest you do yourself and Seeking Alpha readers a favor by ceasing to write these "advice" articles. You are likely to make a make a fool of yourself and cost many impressionable young investors a great deal of money. All the best.

Six Stocks to Buy, Five Stocks to Short

I appreciate your honesty in saying "The stock market has become too volatile to handle for many people, including me." I hope you will take the following as well-intended constructive criticism:

Anyone that loses over 20% of their portfolio's value in one day (especially a day with the indexes down less than 4%) should NOT be giving anyone financial advice. Heavy selling in two stocks gives you a 22% portfolio loss??? You shouldn't have a 22% loss even if Apple goes to zero. Clearly you are gambling, not investing properly.

Secondly, if you dread turning on CNBC because there is likely to be more bad news, you shouldn't be giving investment advice. It shows you are too emotionally immature to handle something as important as investment advice.
I hope you go on to get your finance degree and that it leads to a successful career. However at this time I sincerely suggest you do yourself and Seeking Alpha readers a favor by ceasing to write these "advice" articles. You are likely to make a make a fool of yourself and cost many impressionable young investors a great deal of money. All the best.

Incredible Shrinking Microsoft

For the doomsayers out there I suggest you look at MSFT's last 4 years of revenues and earnings. Revs: $37B, $40B, $44B, $51B – Earnings: $0.75, $1.12, $1.20, $1.42. Keep in mind that this was done without any major product cycle and major losses in the gaming division. Get ready for $2.00 this fiscal year and $2.35 the next (more than 3X 2004 earnings). Seems like a growth stock to this investor.

Incredible Shrinking Microsoft

I listen to financial news roughly six hours a day (it's part of my job) and I have yet to hear someone refer to Microsoft as "the next big growth stock". Yes, I've heard many pundits say that it's clear that the PC industry is doing well and that the Vista upgrade cycle is gaining traction and should continue for at least two years. Also noted were the momentum in Microsoft's gaming division and upgrades to it's Office software. It didn't take a genius to see the likelihood of the recent blowout quarter Microsoft reported (it made me three month's salary). Analysts were lulled asleep as I think you may have been.

Your point is well taken however. Clearly, Microsoft is not and will not become the growth stock it once was. But I suggest you don't underestimate to power of new product cycles to make Microsoft a worthy investment for the next year or so. And who knows? Maybe Ballmer's army will eventually figure out how to monetize the internet - ala Google. (Yeah, right!) :-)

Hot Solar Investment No One’s Talking About

Another thing. To say no one's talking about investing in silicon is also "just plain wrong". The shortage of polysilicon for making solar semiconductors has been a hot topic. There is one main supplier that is a public company – check out WFR. However there is more production coming on line from China so supply may catch up with demand in the not too distant future.

Hot Solar Investment No One’s Talking About

As GH pointed out FSLR does not even use silicon in their solar cells. This from the FSLR web site:

"Abundant raw CdTe material to support high volume production and demand.
CdTe is made by transforming cadmium and tellurium into a stable, inert semiconductor. Both elemental materials are produced as byproducts of mining processes (primarily zinc mining and copper refining) and present in abundant quantities to support multi-GWs of annual production"

Apple's a Buy at $130, According To Citigroup

The analysts are behind the curve as usual.

bpicke, Interesting ideas you've got there. I doubt you'll see Jobs license OSX for the PC market as that would invite too many worms into in Apple. I consider myself a raging Apple bull but I would never even consider that Macs could capture 40% of the U.S. consumer market in three years. Dell and HP are much too strong as competitors to let that happen and Apple is not willing to give up its fat margins to even try to really compete on price across the computer product line – which is what they'd have to do to gain that kind of market share.

Apple: The Best Is Yet To Come

Nice to to Mr. Yared upping his estimates. But IMO his '08 estimate of $4.50 is way too low. Once several versions of new Macs come out with Leopard and (no doubt) some with multi-touch screens, you'll see a HUGE surge in sales. Instead of the 1.764 million Macs as shipped during this past quarter I think we may something over 3 million. There are a ton of Mac users that will upgrade. iPhones will be in multiple countries, with at least two versions selling in the U.S. I say the '08 number will be around $5.35. That's based on an '07 estimate of $3.82 and eps growth of 40%. Yes, 40%. That certainly could be light.

For a small taste of what Apple could add to the Mac platform with Aperature and Multi-touch watch this:

www.ted.com/index.php/...

Apple's FY Q3 Guidance Too Low, According To Analysts

My guesstimate for Apple's Q3 earnings is a good bit higher than those you mentioned. Looking at previous years one is likely to project Q3 revenue and earnings slightly above that of Q2. This year however Apple pointed out that much of the upside to the Q2 earnings was due to lower component costs and that they didn't expect to benefit from a similar environment in Q3. Well, now we know (from the Micron and Sandisk reports) that memory prices have continued to decline significantly during Q3. This, in addition to the huge surge in Apple awareness due to the iPhone, and recent IDC data that indicates Mac's increased their share of the U.S. market from 4.8% to 5.6% in the last year leads me to think Apple will indeed once again have higher earnings in Q3 than Q2. That puts the number somewhere over $0.86 which is considerably higher than the analysts. I'll say $0.92.

Apple's Increasing Revenue Growth to Continue Even After iPhone Sales Peak

Thanks. That's the best explanation of iPhone subscription accounting I've read.

Apple Priced for Perfection: Great Company, Bad Investment

Hey Mr. Edwards! Are you aware of Apple's earnings growth the past four quarters? From June 2006 to March 2007 Apple's quarterly earnings increased 46%, 68%, 75%, and 85% yr/yr.

Apple Priced for Perfection: Great Company, Bad Investment

Re: "especially if Apple can keep growing earnings respectfully, say 12% to 15% per year."

12% to 15% ???

With Apple's current product lineup and it's potential for upgrades, I'll be astounded if Apple's EPS growth is not over 30% in both 2007 and 2008. Mr. Edwards just can't seem to get his mind around a company of this size being innovative in it's core markets and moving successfully into new markets at the same time. Perhaps it hasn't happened before – but it's happening now.

The iPhone's True Market Cap Value: Apple to Double By 2008

I've never bought an iPod but I've purchased 150 songs from iTunes. And I know a couple people that have purchased three iPods over the years but have purchased very few songs (just listen to their CD collection). Trying to project the future iTunes revenue from iPod sales is virtually impossible. Having said that, it seems to me iTunes will become increasingly important as CDs disappear and the iTunes platform helps to sell hardware: iPods, iPhones, Apple TV's and who knows what else.

Might Apple Want Out Of The Hardware Business?

This guy is clueless in his understanding of what makes Apple great.