Ryan Barnes's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/76717/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/150373-a-look-at-caterpillar-s-blowout-quarter?source=feed#comment-602222 602222
This kind of thing happens all the time at multinationals. Forgive me for leaving it out, but there's only so much space in these articles...I can't break apart every single line and footnote of the income statement & balance sheet.

Although I must admit I'm quite impressed with the fact that you made an entire valuation assessment with one single sentence (fragment). "Just another overpriced stock as far as I'm concerned....."

I bid you good luck in your investing efforts; I have a feeling by the end of this year folks like you will realize that many valuations were the best we've seen in over a decade. ]]> Sat, 25 Jul 2009 20:40:00 -0400
This kind of thing happens all the time at multinationals. Forgive me for leaving it out, but there's only so much space in these articles...I can't break apart every single line and footnote of the income statement & balance sheet.

Although I must admit I'm quite impressed with the fact that you made an entire valuation assessment with one single sentence (fragment). "Just another overpriced stock as far as I'm concerned....."

I bid you good luck in your investing efforts; I have a feeling by the end of this year folks like you will realize that many valuations were the best we've seen in over a decade. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150373-a-look-at-caterpillar-s-blowout-quarter?source=feed#comment-598048 598048
For all of its issues (and they are plentiful), Caterpillar has remained operating cash flow positive, which provides support for the balance sheet. Also keep in mind that the majority of CAT's debt is from their financing division, so the numbers look a bit outsized relative to the other metrics.

Best of luck in your investing efforts]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:39:40 -0400
For all of its issues (and they are plentiful), Caterpillar has remained operating cash flow positive, which provides support for the balance sheet. Also keep in mind that the majority of CAT's debt is from their financing division, so the numbers look a bit outsized relative to the other metrics.

Best of luck in your investing efforts]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150313-can-we-get-back-to-stock-picking-now?source=feed#comment-597850 597850
The $28 million drop you mention was spread out over higher R&D ($10m), IP asset impairment charges ($10m), and also higher SG&A...now the latter could have been reigned in better, but you had better be careful when you say something like "writers don't even know what earnings are being adjusted for"...

Are you suggesting that the $85 one-time charge recorded in the year-ago was part of an elaborate sandbag? That they recorded it just so 365 days later they'd have easier comparisons?

And sure, let's just get rid of GAAP and start using EBITDA instead....oh, you don't mind if the S&P 500 firms add $13 trillion in debt to their balance sheets next quarter, do you? Jeesh...

I appreciate your vigor for the nitty-gritty numbers on this particular company, but there's simply not enough space here to spout off the entire financial statement for each company mentioned. That's what the transcripts and SEC filings are for.

All that said, I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong, and my hopes for STJ to turn in a good quarter have been largely dashed. It looks like the company wasn't able to execute the same level of market share gains as in past quarters. Companies that have held to full-year guidance all year seem to be treated a little too harshly in this market. Que Sera, Sera

Best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 09:55:55 -0400
The $28 million drop you mention was spread out over higher R&D ($10m), IP asset impairment charges ($10m), and also higher SG&A...now the latter could have been reigned in better, but you had better be careful when you say something like "writers don't even know what earnings are being adjusted for"...

Are you suggesting that the $85 one-time charge recorded in the year-ago was part of an elaborate sandbag? That they recorded it just so 365 days later they'd have easier comparisons?

And sure, let's just get rid of GAAP and start using EBITDA instead....oh, you don't mind if the S&P 500 firms add $13 trillion in debt to their balance sheets next quarter, do you? Jeesh...

I appreciate your vigor for the nitty-gritty numbers on this particular company, but there's simply not enough space here to spout off the entire financial statement for each company mentioned. That's what the transcripts and SEC filings are for.

All that said, I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong, and my hopes for STJ to turn in a good quarter have been largely dashed. It looks like the company wasn't able to execute the same level of market share gains as in past quarters. Companies that have held to full-year guidance all year seem to be treated a little too harshly in this market. Que Sera, Sera

Best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150006-weekly-preview-earnings-upside-continues?source=feed#comment-596460 596460
Best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 10:24:50 -0400
Best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149468-vale-may-bid-for-mosaic-let-the-great-potash-war-begin?source=feed#comment-593095 593095
And yes, inventories are up at Potash Corp, and Agrium has announced price cuts in the range of 20%; this is why share prices have been cut in half as I mentioned. As to the broader thesis of global demand for protein being higher...if you think that's comparable to real estate, that's your right...I just don't see any comparison.

The increased demand for real estate was based on the increased access to cheap credit, making ever larger patches of the demograpic quilt feel that owning a home was their "right". That part of the fundamental equation has changed. The increased demand for proteins in a growing population has not changed to date, and I don't see anything stopping it.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.]]> Sat, 18 Jul 2009 14:19:39 -0400
And yes, inventories are up at Potash Corp, and Agrium has announced price cuts in the range of 20%; this is why share prices have been cut in half as I mentioned. As to the broader thesis of global demand for protein being higher...if you think that's comparable to real estate, that's your right...I just don't see any comparison.

The increased demand for real estate was based on the increased access to cheap credit, making ever larger patches of the demograpic quilt feel that owning a home was their "right". That part of the fundamental equation has changed. The increased demand for proteins in a growing population has not changed to date, and I don't see anything stopping it.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148526-washington-s-dilemma-this-isn-t-a-recession-it-s-a-collapse?source=feed#comment-591506 591506
All the CA haters need to keep one indisputable fact in mind. California has ranked amongst the top 10 net contributors to the federal government (in terms of taxes paid, people) for over two decades. Meanwhile there are about 30 states in the middle of the country that have been net gainers ONLY. Small taxes paid, big subsidies, year after year after year. Just think about that for a moment. If CA needs a loan, why shouldn't they get it? They are one of very few states that can be counted on to contribute to the pot once the economy turns. We've got 32 states that haven't contributed a net dime in over 20 years. It's fact, like it or not.

I know this post won't be popular, but nobody gains with so much anger flying around; it's just plain unproductive. Just imagine what kind of demands the federal government could make in exchange for a bailout! They could literally force the state to shake out the horrible legislative system that has led it to its knees. It's time to get original and stop being petty.

I don't know all the right answers - this is a very complex issue, but nobody wins when everyone's throwing stones at each other. If CA defaults on muni payments it doesn't just sink one state's ship; it will raise the cost of capital for every state in the land. We should all be afraid of that happening.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts...not that there's any real investing discussion here, but best of luck nonetheless. ]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:38:52 -0400
All the CA haters need to keep one indisputable fact in mind. California has ranked amongst the top 10 net contributors to the federal government (in terms of taxes paid, people) for over two decades. Meanwhile there are about 30 states in the middle of the country that have been net gainers ONLY. Small taxes paid, big subsidies, year after year after year. Just think about that for a moment. If CA needs a loan, why shouldn't they get it? They are one of very few states that can be counted on to contribute to the pot once the economy turns. We've got 32 states that haven't contributed a net dime in over 20 years. It's fact, like it or not.

I know this post won't be popular, but nobody gains with so much anger flying around; it's just plain unproductive. Just imagine what kind of demands the federal government could make in exchange for a bailout! They could literally force the state to shake out the horrible legislative system that has led it to its knees. It's time to get original and stop being petty.

I don't know all the right answers - this is a very complex issue, but nobody wins when everyone's throwing stones at each other. If CA defaults on muni payments it doesn't just sink one state's ship; it will raise the cost of capital for every state in the land. We should all be afraid of that happening.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts...not that there's any real investing discussion here, but best of luck nonetheless. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149343-eight-industries-that-will-lag-behind-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-591430 591430
Until the credit rating agencies prove otherwise, they have absolutely zero credibility. They've somehow managed to stay in business despite slapping "A" ratings on what is now toxic debt across the board. They have been the latest to the game on every call since the crisis began. By the time they put a company on negative watch, the company is either within 24 hours of a bankruptcy filing or the stock is already down 90% and bonds trade for .25c on the dollar. I would take investment advice from my grandmother before I'd take investment advice from a major credit rating agency.

All that aside, nice article in all honesty. It gives a nice overview of the industries...But investors need to distinguish between recovery in the sense of things like job growth and recovery in the form of share price. Most retail stocks, for instance, have crushed the average returns of the market in the past 4 months, despite the negative trends mentioned. Stocks are always forward looking; by the time these industries are hiring workers again, I guarantee you the stocks will have run up by another 30%.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts. ]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 23:30:50 -0400
Until the credit rating agencies prove otherwise, they have absolutely zero credibility. They've somehow managed to stay in business despite slapping "A" ratings on what is now toxic debt across the board. They have been the latest to the game on every call since the crisis began. By the time they put a company on negative watch, the company is either within 24 hours of a bankruptcy filing or the stock is already down 90% and bonds trade for .25c on the dollar. I would take investment advice from my grandmother before I'd take investment advice from a major credit rating agency.

All that aside, nice article in all honesty. It gives a nice overview of the industries...But investors need to distinguish between recovery in the sense of things like job growth and recovery in the form of share price. Most retail stocks, for instance, have crushed the average returns of the market in the past 4 months, despite the negative trends mentioned. Stocks are always forward looking; by the time these industries are hiring workers again, I guarantee you the stocks will have run up by another 30%.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149127-portfolio-update-raising-tech-st-jude-stakes?source=feed#comment-591029 591029
My #1 goal is to have absolutely no conflicts of interest when I write about investing in specific companies. Meanwhile, every stock pick I make and the management of the Secular Trends Portfolio is all out there, naked as a newborn baby. My reputation, whatever value it holds, is on the line. I guess I feel that journalistic integrity is more important at this moment in history than promoting the stocks I do own. It just feels like the right thing to do.

If I do correctly what I've set out to do, the stocks I've selected will be just as solid an investment 3-5 years from now as today. If and when I buy them all up for myself or clients in exactly the same ratios as in the model, I will do so proudly & with all parties involved knowing exactly where I stand, my philosophy, and my strategies. Of course, the public window would have to close at that point, for the same reasons of preserving the integrity of my clients.

Hope that clears things up. I wish you the best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 16:54:00 -0400
My #1 goal is to have absolutely no conflicts of interest when I write about investing in specific companies. Meanwhile, every stock pick I make and the management of the Secular Trends Portfolio is all out there, naked as a newborn baby. My reputation, whatever value it holds, is on the line. I guess I feel that journalistic integrity is more important at this moment in history than promoting the stocks I do own. It just feels like the right thing to do.

If I do correctly what I've set out to do, the stocks I've selected will be just as solid an investment 3-5 years from now as today. If and when I buy them all up for myself or clients in exactly the same ratios as in the model, I will do so proudly & with all parties involved knowing exactly where I stand, my philosophy, and my strategies. Of course, the public window would have to close at that point, for the same reasons of preserving the integrity of my clients.

Hope that clears things up. I wish you the best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148491-as-earnings-are-upon-us-some-goldman-thoughts?source=feed#comment-589646 589646
But let's remember that this is a company based in New York City. They've been consistently funneling their contributions towards the dems at higher than 60% since 1990. Oh, and they've also donated $11 million to the Republican party in that time.
www.opensecrets.org/or...

So a company located in a highly democratic-leaning state where lots of employees make truckloads of money did what they've consistently done for 20 years. It just so happens that this time, their horse won the race.

Oh, and to boot, the total contributions from GS amounted to less than 1/2 of 1% of what Obama received in contributions. And they guy had close to $30 million in cash LEFT OVER once the election was complete. Objectively, I don't think the current Administration feels overly beholden to Goldman for anything. ]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:47:03 -0400
But let's remember that this is a company based in New York City. They've been consistently funneling their contributions towards the dems at higher than 60% since 1990. Oh, and they've also donated $11 million to the Republican party in that time.
www.opensecrets.org/or...

So a company located in a highly democratic-leaning state where lots of employees make truckloads of money did what they've consistently done for 20 years. It just so happens that this time, their horse won the race.

Oh, and to boot, the total contributions from GS amounted to less than 1/2 of 1% of what Obama received in contributions. And they guy had close to $30 million in cash LEFT OVER once the election was complete. Objectively, I don't think the current Administration feels overly beholden to Goldman for anything. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148614-the-end-of-asset-allocation?source=feed#comment-589011 589011
As others have pointed out, it's nothing new to say that in the midst of a financial panic, correlations tend to revert to 1 across the board. Asset allocation is about risk, and flexibility is being able to realize that there were higher levels of risk in real estate and stocks in 2007 than investors were being compensated for.

There's also a serious timing component here. It's quite unfair to quell 100+ years of thoughtful study and empirical evidence because of one market event. The whole point of historical analysis is to "smooth over the cracks". While today's cracks are certainly large in historical terms, the correlations of the past 18 months are the outlier, not the norm.

I think we need to take stock of the myriad of new financial products & vehicles to hit the street in the past 15 years and ask ourselves, "what are the new asset classes?". ]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 10:49:59 -0400
As others have pointed out, it's nothing new to say that in the midst of a financial panic, correlations tend to revert to 1 across the board. Asset allocation is about risk, and flexibility is being able to realize that there were higher levels of risk in real estate and stocks in 2007 than investors were being compensated for.

There's also a serious timing component here. It's quite unfair to quell 100+ years of thoughtful study and empirical evidence because of one market event. The whole point of historical analysis is to "smooth over the cracks". While today's cracks are certainly large in historical terms, the correlations of the past 18 months are the outlier, not the norm.

I think we need to take stock of the myriad of new financial products & vehicles to hit the street in the past 15 years and ask ourselves, "what are the new asset classes?". ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148730-cit-s-debt-issues-show-why-the-economy-won-t-be-picking-up-any-time-soon?source=feed#comment-588958 588958 Is anyone else curious as to the incessant use of the term "credit inflation"? It's really not a legitimate phrasing, as it confuses what I imagine to be the author's intent with inflation's proper etymology, which to describe a rise in price level.

So unless the author is making a broad statement about interest rates, how about we just use what the other 99.9% of folks use. Credit expansion, credit growth, there's plenty of other options folks.]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 10:18:44 -0400 Is anyone else curious as to the incessant use of the term "credit inflation"? It's really not a legitimate phrasing, as it confuses what I imagine to be the author's intent with inflation's proper etymology, which to describe a rise in price level.

So unless the author is making a broad statement about interest rates, how about we just use what the other 99.9% of folks use. Credit expansion, credit growth, there's plenty of other options folks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148456-potash-s-negative-price-implications?source=feed#comment-587558 587558
Canpotex has already stated they might resort to spot-only pricing if contract talks with China aren't fruitful in the next go-around.

It's a fluid story worth keeping tabs on, but the North American potash is indeed of better quality, and stories of global oversupply are PR ploys at best. Every demographic trend points to higher levels of demand, the need for higher crop yield, etc. The only thing that can really get in the way of the industry's long term growth is for stupid strategic moves that involve collusion. I'd personally like to see Canpotex break apart, but that isn't likely to happen until the next market upswing.

EpiphanyOne]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:07:11 -0400
Canpotex has already stated they might resort to spot-only pricing if contract talks with China aren't fruitful in the next go-around.

It's a fluid story worth keeping tabs on, but the North American potash is indeed of better quality, and stories of global oversupply are PR ploys at best. Every demographic trend points to higher levels of demand, the need for higher crop yield, etc. The only thing that can really get in the way of the industry's long term growth is for stupid strategic moves that involve collusion. I'd personally like to see Canpotex break apart, but that isn't likely to happen until the next market upswing.

EpiphanyOne]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148203-dangerous-fallacy-in-gdp-measures?source=feed#comment-584743 584743
But the example you cite as proof of GDP's flaws is inaccurate. Hurricane Katrina is merely one of a million devices of "economic destruction" that occur every day...albeit a larger and more unfortunate one. When I drink a can of soda, I "destroy" that unit of production. That unit of production must be rebuilt so that I can destroy it again. This is the nature of economics at its most basic.

EVERYTHING created in an economy is a failing asset; it's only a matter of how long its useful life is. Roads, bridges, airplanes, clothes, houses, food, and even jobs. So while rebuilding a city destroyed by natural disaster is indeed a terrible thing, it is not "fake" production. If you were to one-off this, you'd be one-offing every unit of production ever created.

I'm all for a healthy debate of the usefulness of GDP for this purpose or that, but we've got to get our ECON 101 out of the way first, folks. The strength of an economy is in its ability to be ready to produce what is needed and what is wanted, without creating unsustainable side effects. Our rising national debt is viewed by many as one of the latter, but again, how much debt a country (or person) can service is merely a function of dependability and foresight into future cash flows.

The crash of our financial spinal cord in the past 24 months occurred because the dependability of what were once considered safe cash flows disappeared due to falling home prices.

Best of luck to all in your investing (and debating) efforts. ]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 15:44:54 -0400
But the example you cite as proof of GDP's flaws is inaccurate. Hurricane Katrina is merely one of a million devices of "economic destruction" that occur every day...albeit a larger and more unfortunate one. When I drink a can of soda, I "destroy" that unit of production. That unit of production must be rebuilt so that I can destroy it again. This is the nature of economics at its most basic.

EVERYTHING created in an economy is a failing asset; it's only a matter of how long its useful life is. Roads, bridges, airplanes, clothes, houses, food, and even jobs. So while rebuilding a city destroyed by natural disaster is indeed a terrible thing, it is not "fake" production. If you were to one-off this, you'd be one-offing every unit of production ever created.

I'm all for a healthy debate of the usefulness of GDP for this purpose or that, but we've got to get our ECON 101 out of the way first, folks. The strength of an economy is in its ability to be ready to produce what is needed and what is wanted, without creating unsustainable side effects. Our rising national debt is viewed by many as one of the latter, but again, how much debt a country (or person) can service is merely a function of dependability and foresight into future cash flows.

The crash of our financial spinal cord in the past 24 months occurred because the dependability of what were once considered safe cash flows disappeared due to falling home prices.

Best of luck to all in your investing (and debating) efforts. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148174-pompous-prognosticators-2004-2009?source=feed#comment-584005 584005
Ok, now that you've eliminated everyone who's been tasked to do the job of allocating capital, who then should we listen to? Oh, wait, the author is a gold bug. But is he not also a "financial expert"? hmmm...

I enjoyed reading the quotes, they're always fun to read, but it's also blatant quote mining going on here. Author could have just as easily thrown up a slew of quotes from "financial experts" who were dead-on in their warnings of things to come, going back to 2001. Now, more than ever, we need objective analysis, not fear-mongering. ]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 23:53:20 -0400
Ok, now that you've eliminated everyone who's been tasked to do the job of allocating capital, who then should we listen to? Oh, wait, the author is a gold bug. But is he not also a "financial expert"? hmmm...

I enjoyed reading the quotes, they're always fun to read, but it's also blatant quote mining going on here. Author could have just as easily thrown up a slew of quotes from "financial experts" who were dead-on in their warnings of things to come, going back to 2001. Now, more than ever, we need objective analysis, not fear-mongering. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147723-what-or-when-is-up-with-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-582756 582756
EpiphanyOne]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:59:27 -0400
EpiphanyOne]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148043-the-best-times-to-buy-shanda-s-stock?source=feed#comment-582727 582727
How do you view the company's competitive position? Do you have any data on the number of monthly users, average purchases per user, etc? Enjoyed the article but I'm hungry for some fundamental metrics.

Best of luck in your investing efforts.

EpiphanyOne]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:37:10 -0400
How do you view the company's competitive position? Do you have any data on the number of monthly users, average purchases per user, etc? Enjoyed the article but I'm hungry for some fundamental metrics.

Best of luck in your investing efforts.

EpiphanyOne]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147952-groundbreaking-wsj-story-on-gold?source=feed#comment-582721 582721
The best answer may be that both gold and stocks have gained in real value over the past 100 years, and whether you're a gold bug or not, there will be multi-year periods when gold performs better, and vice-versa.

To the folks who think gold hoarders are idiots, I only offer this hackneyed advice: a billion screaming fans (or idiots) can't be wrong. Supply and demand folks. It doesn't matter what the fundamental arguments are one way or the other, if enough people want gold, the "price" of gold will rise. The allure has held up for 2,000 years and counting, so I wouldn't fight the tape on that one. And this is coming from a equities man... I know many people that, despite years of my arguing against it, refuse to give up their secret stash of Thunderdome currency. You can't fight, reason with, or beat out deeply embedded beliefs. ]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:32:10 -0400
The best answer may be that both gold and stocks have gained in real value over the past 100 years, and whether you're a gold bug or not, there will be multi-year periods when gold performs better, and vice-versa.

To the folks who think gold hoarders are idiots, I only offer this hackneyed advice: a billion screaming fans (or idiots) can't be wrong. Supply and demand folks. It doesn't matter what the fundamental arguments are one way or the other, if enough people want gold, the "price" of gold will rise. The allure has held up for 2,000 years and counting, so I wouldn't fight the tape on that one. And this is coming from a equities man... I know many people that, despite years of my arguing against it, refuse to give up their secret stash of Thunderdome currency. You can't fight, reason with, or beat out deeply embedded beliefs. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148114-apple-estimates-increased-on-iphone-and-mac?source=feed#comment-582703 582703
Also, margins on Macs seem destined to compress, but this should also be seen as a net-net positive towards gaining share. I think that DELL has an outside shot at the best upside surprise this season, due to its increased leverage towards the next PC upgrade cycle in line with Windows 7.]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:19:13 -0400
Also, margins on Macs seem destined to compress, but this should also be seen as a net-net positive towards gaining share. I think that DELL has an outside shot at the best upside surprise this season, due to its increased leverage towards the next PC upgrade cycle in line with Windows 7.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147110-goldman-sachs-no-global-financial-espionage-story-here?source=feed#comment-575485 575485
To read TD and others, I have to assume there's only one trade left to make in our entire lifetimes - short everything, crawl down into my bunker, and maybe come out when it's time to enter the ThunderDome and fight for my daily ration of gasoline with a tire iron.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:09:48 -0400
To read TD and others, I have to assume there's only one trade left to make in our entire lifetimes - short everything, crawl down into my bunker, and maybe come out when it's time to enter the ThunderDome and fight for my daily ration of gasoline with a tire iron.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145785-not-ready-for-prime-time-stock-list?source=feed#comment-572644 572644
The margins have taken a slight hit this year, but then again, it is this year. I can easily forgive some top-line weakness. Cerner looks like they could be a prime beneficiary of healthcare reform, and Obama's stance on EHR is well-documented. The valuation is a bit rich, but balance sheet is stellar as is cash flow. And we all know that a 5 year window of positive catalysts can keep any strong stock in a premium valuation range (25-30x).

I'll be reading through the most recent 10-Q's and K to get a final feel for mgt, but I definitely like to see original founders who have serious skin (and a little pride) still in the game.

Best of luck in your investing efforts,

RB]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:50:09 -0400
The margins have taken a slight hit this year, but then again, it is this year. I can easily forgive some top-line weakness. Cerner looks like they could be a prime beneficiary of healthcare reform, and Obama's stance on EHR is well-documented. The valuation is a bit rich, but balance sheet is stellar as is cash flow. And we all know that a 5 year window of positive catalysts can keep any strong stock in a premium valuation range (25-30x).

I'll be reading through the most recent 10-Q's and K to get a final feel for mgt, but I definitely like to see original founders who have serious skin (and a little pride) still in the game.

Best of luck in your investing efforts,

RB]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146118-imax-welcome-back-to-the-land-of-the-viable?source=feed#comment-569442 569442
My modest channel checks haven't come up with a poor viewing experience as of yet, but thx for the mention about the camera licensing. I'll be on the lookout for the mix of equipment at the company's theaters. That said, the odds of an acquisition (or perception hike) still seem well above the threshold that investors of a certain risk appetite would consider attractive.

Best of luck in your investing (or avoiding!) efforts.]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:02:09 -0400
My modest channel checks haven't come up with a poor viewing experience as of yet, but thx for the mention about the camera licensing. I'll be on the lookout for the mix of equipment at the company's theaters. That said, the odds of an acquisition (or perception hike) still seem well above the threshold that investors of a certain risk appetite would consider attractive.

Best of luck in your investing (or avoiding!) efforts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145775-why-i-m-buying-micron-part-ii?source=feed#comment-566463 566463
But you'll forgive me if I'm not convinced that the $18b market in flash is "broken" because of an article that chiefly cites CEO Darrell Rinerson of Unity Semiconductor, a "next-generation memory hopeful". Can anyone say "bias"?

Hey, this realm of technology is all about change; what works today is bound to be upended tomorrow. We know this. And as soon as Unity Semiconductor gets a $100m OEM deal for their "passive rewritable crosspoint memory array" technology, I hereby promise to figure out just what the heck that means.

To amdman - appreciate your comments as well, and will try to read up on EDRAM and RRAM at some point in the future. I happen to really like NVDA, and pointedly disagree that they are a "dead stick". Intel is obviously one helluva scary competitor, but they don't win in every market they enter; NVDA is a large holding in my model and some of my thoughts on GPU vs CPU architecture can be found here :
epiphanyinvesting.com/.../

Intel would love to prove NVDA CEO Huang utterly wrong on GPU, but I am a believer. So far the tests show that a CPU carrying all the heavy lifting of processing and graphics simply runs too hot for smaller devices.

Healthy competition is always a good thing. As with all, time will tell; best of luck in your investing efforts.

PA; thanks for the posting; $1.05 in Fiscal 2010 would be quite the feat, but hey, I'm all for the occasional bout of optimism.

EpiphanyOne]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:35:23 -0400
But you'll forgive me if I'm not convinced that the $18b market in flash is "broken" because of an article that chiefly cites CEO Darrell Rinerson of Unity Semiconductor, a "next-generation memory hopeful". Can anyone say "bias"?

Hey, this realm of technology is all about change; what works today is bound to be upended tomorrow. We know this. And as soon as Unity Semiconductor gets a $100m OEM deal for their "passive rewritable crosspoint memory array" technology, I hereby promise to figure out just what the heck that means.

To amdman - appreciate your comments as well, and will try to read up on EDRAM and RRAM at some point in the future. I happen to really like NVDA, and pointedly disagree that they are a "dead stick". Intel is obviously one helluva scary competitor, but they don't win in every market they enter; NVDA is a large holding in my model and some of my thoughts on GPU vs CPU architecture can be found here :
epiphanyinvesting.com/.../

Intel would love to prove NVDA CEO Huang utterly wrong on GPU, but I am a believer. So far the tests show that a CPU carrying all the heavy lifting of processing and graphics simply runs too hot for smaller devices.

Healthy competition is always a good thing. As with all, time will tell; best of luck in your investing efforts.

PA; thanks for the posting; $1.05 in Fiscal 2010 would be quite the feat, but hey, I'm all for the occasional bout of optimism.

EpiphanyOne]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145268-words-of-wisdom-from-the-oracle-of-omaha?source=feed#comment-563882 563882
Sorry, you lost your objectivity there. This piece wasn't meant to be a discourse on politics. Buffett has been criticized for not just months, but years, in the past. It is his burden to bear for being a long-term investor; the man rarely changes his mind. You either like that or you don't, but could we please leave socialism talk at the doorstep?

Buffett was called a fool, idiot, over-the-hill, you name it for almost an entire decade in the 1990's. "the old fart refuses to invest in technology because he doesn't see their long-term competitive advantage...what an idiot! Look how much money he's missing out on!!" It wasn't until the Fall of 2002 that people came back around and realized that while everyone else was down 40% over the past two years, he was up. Steady, staid, and always adding a little bit of value.

I say the man deserves a statue just for his very vocal callout of the burgeoning derivatives business, going as far back as 2001. If you read his shareholder letters from that period, it will shock you. He knew exactly what he was talking about, and he was exactly right.

And finally, to Glen, if your loathing of our government continues, you could always move to Europe. That's one of the favorite arguments of the uber-conservative. "When taxes go up in such-a-such place, the people will RESPOND. They will move their money, or find a new place to live." I hear Spain is nice.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts; at the end of the day we're all just trying to learn a bit more, become a little more prepared for the future challenges and opportunities we know are just around the corner.


On Jun 25 10:10 AM Glen L. wrote:

> I hope I'm not the only investor in the world who doesn't worship
> the old fool you call an Oracle. Buffett is, if anything, living
> proof that anyone can make a fortune if they are fortunate. He made
> a lot of lucky guesses in his career, but his track record since
> 2006 is abysmal. Follow him over the cliff if you like, I'll take
> my chances following my own guesses.
>
> The sad part is his praise of Bernanke, the Fed, and the socialist
> policies of the federal government. Capitalism has made many a Lefty
> rich over the years, ironically enough, but the notion that we should
> be taking macoeconomic advice from them is just crazy.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:42:34 -0400
Sorry, you lost your objectivity there. This piece wasn't meant to be a discourse on politics. Buffett has been criticized for not just months, but years, in the past. It is his burden to bear for being a long-term investor; the man rarely changes his mind. You either like that or you don't, but could we please leave socialism talk at the doorstep?

Buffett was called a fool, idiot, over-the-hill, you name it for almost an entire decade in the 1990's. "the old fart refuses to invest in technology because he doesn't see their long-term competitive advantage...what an idiot! Look how much money he's missing out on!!" It wasn't until the Fall of 2002 that people came back around and realized that while everyone else was down 40% over the past two years, he was up. Steady, staid, and always adding a little bit of value.

I say the man deserves a statue just for his very vocal callout of the burgeoning derivatives business, going as far back as 2001. If you read his shareholder letters from that period, it will shock you. He knew exactly what he was talking about, and he was exactly right.

And finally, to Glen, if your loathing of our government continues, you could always move to Europe. That's one of the favorite arguments of the uber-conservative. "When taxes go up in such-a-such place, the people will RESPOND. They will move their money, or find a new place to live." I hear Spain is nice.

Best of luck to all in your investing efforts; at the end of the day we're all just trying to learn a bit more, become a little more prepared for the future challenges and opportunities we know are just around the corner.


On Jun 25 10:10 AM Glen L. wrote:

> I hope I'm not the only investor in the world who doesn't worship
> the old fool you call an Oracle. Buffett is, if anything, living
> proof that anyone can make a fortune if they are fortunate. He made
> a lot of lucky guesses in his career, but his track record since
> 2006 is abysmal. Follow him over the cliff if you like, I'll take
> my chances following my own guesses.
>
> The sad part is his praise of Bernanke, the Fed, and the socialist
> policies of the federal government. Capitalism has made many a Lefty
> rich over the years, ironically enough, but the notion that we should
> be taking macoeconomic advice from them is just crazy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145265-selling-schering-plough-looking-to-india-brazil-and-south-africa?source=feed#comment-563871 563871
From there, they should take the part they want to hold in cash and literally invest in MM's. Give the stock allocation to an "all-stock" fund manager (understanding of course, that any manager will need to hold a few % in cash just to handle redemptions and rotations), give the bond portion to a bond manger, etc.

This way, the investor has made 1 broad, overriding choice that they know will remain fixed. I think the problem many investors ran into during 2008 is that they sent off the majority of their assets to managers without thinking about their own tolerance for risk. Its foolish to assume your stock fund manager should be managing your asset allocation risk for you. Keep in mind I'm speaking only about mutual funds and the like, not separately managed accounts which are often a one-stop-shop but custom suited to each investor with the help of CFAs, CPAs, and RIAs.

I realize this may seem like a lot of steps for individual investors, but they are steps EVERY investor should take. Heck, if they really refuse to have but one single investment, they can pick up one of those unsightly but possibly useful "lifecycle funds" from Vanguard, Fidelity, and others.

Thanks for the comments, and best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:30:13 -0400
From there, they should take the part they want to hold in cash and literally invest in MM's. Give the stock allocation to an "all-stock" fund manager (understanding of course, that any manager will need to hold a few % in cash just to handle redemptions and rotations), give the bond portion to a bond manger, etc.

This way, the investor has made 1 broad, overriding choice that they know will remain fixed. I think the problem many investors ran into during 2008 is that they sent off the majority of their assets to managers without thinking about their own tolerance for risk. Its foolish to assume your stock fund manager should be managing your asset allocation risk for you. Keep in mind I'm speaking only about mutual funds and the like, not separately managed accounts which are often a one-stop-shop but custom suited to each investor with the help of CFAs, CPAs, and RIAs.

I realize this may seem like a lot of steps for individual investors, but they are steps EVERY investor should take. Heck, if they really refuse to have but one single investment, they can pick up one of those unsightly but possibly useful "lifecycle funds" from Vanguard, Fidelity, and others.

Thanks for the comments, and best of luck in your investing efforts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144717-emerging-markets-betting-against-conventional-wisdom?source=feed#comment-561214 561214
You can't simply write about mega-hindsight picks without any mention of what you ­actually did then, or what you held, or what you told clients, etc.

The author here seems to be proposing a policy where investors should be on the lookout for "Black Swans" every calendar year. Why? If there was one to find every year they wouldn't be black swan events in the first place. The two mentioned (tech stocks in 99 and housing/financials in 07-08) were essentially a decade apart. Any investor who was told to bet on the nasties in the meantime would have been bleeding premiums for nothing, meanwhile missing out on a pretty decent global market.

And this quote "Since the market low on 3/9, it's almost like investors have completely forgotten about the financial crisis. Did it ever exist?"

This is definitely worth a chuckle to anyone that, oh I don't know, reads the daily newspaper, or turns on the TV for 30 seconds, reads the internet, or picks up their pink slip or foreclosure notice. Pretty sure all those folks aren't doubting the existence or persistence of the financial crisis.

As for the "investing strategy" proposed - which I have to deduce because there's nothing concrete given - it seems that we should be betting against a basket of emerging market sovereign debt. If I were advising clients to do that I'd be filling out my next job's applications right along with it. But go ahead and short 12 emerging market ETFs, and you'll probably get one that goes bust, maybe even two. But on the other 10 or 11, what do you think will be the result when the countries sport 5% annualized, organic GDP growth? I'd say you'll lose much more than your profit on the former.

Sorry folks, I'm not usually a Negative Ned, but this piece seems like a great way to sell a newsletter to scared, tattered investors, and a really poor way to dispense financial advice.]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 19:54:18 -0400
You can't simply write about mega-hindsight picks without any mention of what you ­actually did then, or what you held, or what you told clients, etc.

The author here seems to be proposing a policy where investors should be on the lookout for "Black Swans" every calendar year. Why? If there was one to find every year they wouldn't be black swan events in the first place. The two mentioned (tech stocks in 99 and housing/financials in 07-08) were essentially a decade apart. Any investor who was told to bet on the nasties in the meantime would have been bleeding premiums for nothing, meanwhile missing out on a pretty decent global market.

And this quote "Since the market low on 3/9, it's almost like investors have completely forgotten about the financial crisis. Did it ever exist?"

This is definitely worth a chuckle to anyone that, oh I don't know, reads the daily newspaper, or turns on the TV for 30 seconds, reads the internet, or picks up their pink slip or foreclosure notice. Pretty sure all those folks aren't doubting the existence or persistence of the financial crisis.

As for the "investing strategy" proposed - which I have to deduce because there's nothing concrete given - it seems that we should be betting against a basket of emerging market sovereign debt. If I were advising clients to do that I'd be filling out my next job's applications right along with it. But go ahead and short 12 emerging market ETFs, and you'll probably get one that goes bust, maybe even two. But on the other 10 or 11, what do you think will be the result when the countries sport 5% annualized, organic GDP growth? I'd say you'll lose much more than your profit on the former.

Sorry folks, I'm not usually a Negative Ned, but this piece seems like a great way to sell a newsletter to scared, tattered investors, and a really poor way to dispense financial advice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143027-portfolio-reshuffle-freeport-s-out-some-pharma-s-next?source=feed#comment-560831 560831 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:44:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143923-why-i-m-buying-micron-part-i?source=feed#comment-560815 560815
to Flinstoneous - I wasn't saying that TXN, INTC, and NVDA are competitors of MU. My comment on this short post was that there aren't a lot of semi stocks that have any fundamental or balance sheet strength. These three are the best. I wasn't talking about industry competition in terms of product offerings; sorry if there was any confusion. If you're interested you can read my post tomorrow on my investing thesis. If not, I frankly don't care. Good luck in your investing efforts; your comments on Samsung and overseas competition are quite astute. My bet on MU is based on a bottoming of DRAM and NAND pricing, and the positive catalyst of the exit from CMOS (well, mostly an exit). It's a positive step

To Beandog: Didn't know you traveled outside of the RMBS boards. Your alliances are extremely well-documented. I know many people who have been holding that stock for the better part of a decade. My experience with extended patent disputes is that the payout rarely comes, and never in the dollar terms hoped for. Nevertheless best of luck.]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:36:33 -0400
to Flinstoneous - I wasn't saying that TXN, INTC, and NVDA are competitors of MU. My comment on this short post was that there aren't a lot of semi stocks that have any fundamental or balance sheet strength. These three are the best. I wasn't talking about industry competition in terms of product offerings; sorry if there was any confusion. If you're interested you can read my post tomorrow on my investing thesis. If not, I frankly don't care. Good luck in your investing efforts; your comments on Samsung and overseas competition are quite astute. My bet on MU is based on a bottoming of DRAM and NAND pricing, and the positive catalyst of the exit from CMOS (well, mostly an exit). It's a positive step

To Beandog: Didn't know you traveled outside of the RMBS boards. Your alliances are extremely well-documented. I know many people who have been holding that stock for the better part of a decade. My experience with extended patent disputes is that the payout rarely comes, and never in the dollar terms hoped for. Nevertheless best of luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110499-ecuador-s-idiotic-default?source=feed#comment-328294 328294
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