Retired Pharmacist. Call me Rose. Nose= Knows enough to know I need to keep learning and keeping a great dividend paying nest egg growing upwards. I also enjoy total return, but it is not my primary goal, it just happens to follow when buying great quality companies.
My 86 stock portfolio is listed here by sector, largest holding by value is listed first. Updated 1/6/2017.
Consumer Defensive (14): KO, PM, GIS, MO, TGT, KMB, CVS, DEO, PG, PEP, MDLZ, CL, KHC, UL.
Consumer Cyclical (8): MCD, SBUX, GPC, NKE, HAS, MAT, VFC, HD -
Healthcare (8): JNJ, ABBV, AMGN, CAH, BDX , MDT, PFE, TEVA (new and small)-
Energy (6): XOM, CVX, OXY, VLO, RDS/B & A, BP -
Tech (2): ADP, CSCO -
Industrial(6): BA, UNP, MMM, CMI, GWW, LMT. -
Financial (8): NRZ, ARI,, LADR, BXMT (mREITs) TROW, MA, V,
BDCs (6): ARCC, HTGC, NEWT, PSEC, GAIN , MRCC (new & small)-
REAL ESTATE or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Healthcare eREITs (6) : OHI, VTR, HCN, NHI, CCP, SNR -
Equity Reits (11): WPC, DLR, O, CLDT, STAG, LXP, UBA, APLE, SPG, -STWD (hybrid mREIT)
Telecom (2): VZ and T -
Utility (9): SO, D, XEL, MGEE, WEC, DNP, LNT, CNP, FE -
DNP is a CEF which predominately holds Utilities.
Free Download of the Book by Lowell Miller here:
John Huber is the portfolio manager of Saber Capital Management, LLC, an investment firm that manages separate accounts for clients. Saber employs a value investing strategy with a primary goal of patiently compounding capital for the long-term.
John also writes about investing at the blog www.basehitinvesting.com, and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Six-time CEO, followed by founding, in 2003, highly successful strategy development and executive performance-improvement consulting business. Semi-retired (not working full time but serve on corporate Boards).
Erik Kobayashi-Solomon is the author of The Intelligent Option Investor (McGraw-Hill, 2014) and founder of IOI, LLC. IOI Investor Services, LLC, provides institutional caliber educational programs to fund managers, investment advisors, family offices and high net worth individuals. We specialize in educating investors on a simple, disciplined and repeatable approach to valuing companies, showing how to structure asymmetric investments in these companies through a prudent combination of common stocks, options, and cash, and demonstrating how to overcome the behavioral biases and structural factors that so often cause investors problems. We provide consulting on hedging and income strategies, as well as levered growth investment strategies are also within IOI’s bailiwick. Erik has worked in the investment industry since 1997 in a wide variety of buy- and sell-side roles on both sides of the Pacific. Past positions have included the head of listed derivative operations for a bulge bracket firm’s Tokyo branch, the market risk manager for a global long-short equity hedge fund, editor of Morningstar’s OptionInvestor newsletter, and architect of the IFC’s (World Bank Group) standardized valuation model for emerging market private equity business. Erik lives in Chicago, Illinois with his family and enjoys hiking and reading.
Derek Getz is an individual investor seeking to navigate the investment world in order to provide a wealthy and stable retirement for his family. His aim is to help fellow investors, notably younger investors, establish a plan to produce a growing stream of income. Derek holds a Bachelor's degree in Computer Science with a minor in Economics from the University of Delaware and lives with his wife and two children.
Come check me out at dividendderek.com!
I am a 40 year old investor with a long term perspective and a lot of patience. I mainly think about the future when investing in stocks. I do not care about what my selection of stocks will do next year, but what the result will be in 2040 or so. To paraphrase Warren Buffett: "You should only have stocks that you would feel comfortable having if the stock market closes up for 10 years." That means that I look for stocks that combine growth and value. It has been proven that the group of dividend initiators and fastest dividend growers outperforms the markets by far in the long run. So I mainly select stocks from this group, although I also select some non-dividend payers that I believe will grow out to great future value players. Hence: from Growth to Value. I appreciate your comments, because I believe I can learn a lot from your feedback and I believe in the wisdom of crowds.
Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.
Our stock holdings are set forth below.
Own over 50 dividend paying stocks. Our holdings by sector. Animal Health/Dental: PDCO. Chemical/Agriculture: DOW, DD, FMC and MON. Consumer Defensive: KO, PG, MO, KMB, GIS, MDLZ, CLX, CL, KHC, HSY and SJM. Consumer Cyclical: SBUX, NKE and COH. Healthcare: ABT, ABBV, BMY,BAX, DGX, JNJ, MJN, LLY, PFE, MRK and HYH. Tech: ADP, ORCL, IBM, INTC, GLW, HPQ, HPE, NATI and TXN. Industrial: EMR, ITW, JCI, MMM, HON and GE. Telecom: T and VZ. Utility: AEP Miscellaneous: AVY, CDK, FAST, FBHS, SPGI and VSM.
I am an individual investor and the author of seven eBooks on dividend growth investing. I try to help self-directed individual investors profit from stock investing. I contribute articles and studies to both Seeking Alpha and Daily Trade Alert. I hold an undergraduate degree in physics from Holy Cross College and a JD from Georgetown University. My wife Sue and I live in beautiful Canandaigua, NY.
Graycell Advisors publishes stock portfolios using quantitative-driven models and systematic investing. For 2016, Graycell Smallcap Portfolio was up +71% compared to benchmark Russell 2000 Index gain of +9%.
All Seeking Alpha articles under Graycell Advisors are written by Tarun Chandra, who has prior experience as an Equity Analyst on the Sellside and Buyside, as well as experience in Corporate Strategy and Finance. More Seeking Alpha articles can be viewed under the 2nd ID, Tarun Chandra, CFA, where we publish mostly on Biotech. In addition, we have a Graycell Blog and a Prudent Biotech Blog for more updated coverage.
We invite you to take a look at the Performance, Samples, and Philosophy, and decide for yourself if the Small Cap and Biotech products can contribute to your investment objectives. You can even view Samples, Register for a Free Pick from the Portfolio, and check the risk-free subscription with a 2-month money back guarantee.
Nothing here or on the site constitutes a personalized investment recommendation, and stocks mentioned in the reports/articles/comments may be now or in the past, part of the portfolios recommended by Graycell Advisors and related entities. Graycell Advisors and related entities are not a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).
Any questions, please write to Support @ GraycellAdvisors.com
I primarily stick to total-market and healthcare ETFs. I am a health policy researcher, formerly with a think tank in New York, and now at a university.
Note: My opinions are not representative of my employer.
INDEPENDENT Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 30 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive returns over a period of time. Providing advice in helping to avoid the pitfalls and traps that wreak havoc on your portfolio with a focus on Income and Capital Preservation.
I manage the capital of only a handful of families and I see it as my number one job to protect their financial security. They don’t pay me to sell them investment products, beat an index, abandon true investing for mindless diversification or follow the Wall Street lemmings down the primrose path. I manage their money exactly as I manage my own so I don’t take any risk at all unless I strongly believe it is worth taking.
Blogging here on SA is part of my research. I write to find out what I think.
I invite you to join the family of satisfied clients send an e-mail :email@example.com
I'm a 66-year-old investor focused on dividends in a Retirement Income Portfolio.
I've been a member of BetterInvesting.org since 1982 (formerly the National Association of Investment Clubs). For many years as a volunteer I helped lead workshops to teach tools developed by NAIC to educate investors about how to do basic fundamental stock analysis. I continue to have a strong interest in investor education.
Better Investing's "four principles" have been very helpful to me:
1) invest regularly throughout your lifetime;
2) invest in growth companies;
3) reinvest earnings and profits;
4) diversify by industry and size.
Bill Bengen's "4% Rule" inspired my goal to design a retirement portfolio of individual dividend growth stocks as a way to tap only dividend income from the portfolio as long as possible rather than selling assets.
Some things I've gleaned from mentors and colleagues:
- Peter Lynch's conviction that the average person, with some study and discipline, can make good decisions about stocks;
- Louis Rukeyser's ability to ask probing questions about the market;
- From The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham's focus on value;
- From Better Investing columns, Charles Allmon's skill in finding growth stocks that also had the virtues of value and income;
- Brad Thomas' analysis real estate investment trusts;
- Bob Wells' disciplined search for dividend growth;
- From The Single Best Investment, Lowell Miller's focus on quality and safety;
- David Van Knapp's ability to keep the big picture in mind when designing a portfolio;
- David Fish's dedication to monitor consistent dividend growth;
- Factoids' distillation and dissemination of mounds of data;
- Chowder's determination to buy and hold quality businesses;
- BDC Buzz's clarity about the risks business development companies;
- Tom Konrad's commitment to alternative energy investments;
- George Fisher's insights about utility opportunities;
- The Seeking Alpha community--both veterans and young contributors.
A full time investor in stocks, bonds, options, and real estate who previously worked as a financial/investment journalist/analyst. Previous industry stints include privately held SageOnline Inc. - where he held multiple positions - as well as Multex.com, acquired by Reuters, where he was an equity research editor. Aloisi is a cum laude graduate of Penn State University, currently residing in native South Central Pennsylvania with his wife and 2 children.
Income investing has become his focal interest due to the challenges that the ZIRP environment presents. Not an advocate of any single portfolio strategy, he promotes a "go anywhere" philosophy predicated on value, forward thinking, sustainability, and personal objectives. While the past may be instructive, Aloisi cautions on over reliance.
In his free time he likes to talk politics, play the piano, garden, and go antiquing. Mr. Aloisi voluntarily serves as VP of his local school board.
Private investor who started at the age of 16 years old with a joint account with my dad. I'm now more than 50-years old. I came up through the finance ranks starting my career at Arthur Andersen & Co. I became a CFO of a private company in my early 30s and was lucky enough to be able to retire many years ago after being in the right place at the right time. I retired as the President of a $400 million partnership marketing company. My investment philosophy is to focus on companies that have the following characteristics:
- Rock solid balance sheets
- Outstanding FCFs
- Growing revenues
- Expanding margins
- Strong management team focused on driving LONG-TERM STAKEHOLDER VALUE!
I perform all my own due diligence and build all my own models. My motto is SLOW AND STEADY!!!
I have been an Analyst on both the Buyside and Sellside. In addition, I have worked in a Corporate Strategy and Finance role for technology services companies. For many years I've been building quantitative models to create risk-adjusted, return-driven products for DIY individual investors through our platform Graycell Advisors. Our biotech related product - The Prudent Biotech Portfolio - is a quantitative-driven systematic investing product.
For the year 2016, the Prudent Biotech Portfolio was up +7%, compared to IBB (representing Nasdaq Biotech Index) decline of -21%. In addition, the Graycell Smallcap Portfolio was up +71% compared to benchmark Russell 2000 Index gain of +19%.
We invite you to take a look at the Graycell Advisors and Prudent Biotech websites for Performance, Philosophy, and Approach, and decide for yourself if the Biotech and Small Cap products can contribute to your investment objectives.
You can even view Samples, Register for a Free Pick from the Portfolio, and also check the Risk-free Subscription with a 60-day Money-back Guarantee.
Nothing here or on the site constitutes a personalized investment recommendation, and stocks mentioned in the reports/articles/comments may be now or in the past, part of the portfolios recommended by Graycell Advisors and related entities. Graycell Advisors and related entities are not a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).
Any questions, please write to Support @ PrudentBiotech.com
Investing has been my hobby for many years. I am an engineer in Silicon Valley.
I am not an investment adviser. None of my writings should be interpreted as investment advice. Please get an investment adviser and do your own due diligence before investing.
Motto: I invest in undervalued (i.e. cheap) well-established companies trading at a below market multiple.
The companies that I invest in are large stable companies with proven track records. My goal is the highest total return possible with the least amount of risk.
Professional Background: I am a healthcare practitioner with extensive experience in the pharmaceutical sector. I have a passion for investing honed over the past twenty years through various market cycles.
Valens Securities is a boutique research firm with 90+ professionals, housing truly unique, disciplined, and unbiased research systems for equity analysis, corporate credit, and macroeconomic strategy.
Valens provides institutional investor clients with various tools designed for each level of the investment process:
- Valens assists in screening and idea generation using a broad set of unique signals and Quantamental screening criteria
- Our Market Phase Cycle™ macroeconomic strategy helps CIOs, DORs, and PMs to better understand directional trends in credit and equities markets and sectors
- We provide monthly and alert-based portfolio monitoring and review, helping our clients to confirm risk-reward opportunities and avoid torpedoes
- Upon request, Valens provides an unparalleled level of forensic depth for due diligence on concentrated positions on a client by client basis
Performance and Valuation Prime™: Valens insights in financial statement analysis have been featured in presentations and publications in the top finance and accounting forums in the world. Existing credit and equity formulae are simply not geared for the complexity and distortions in financial statements. The Statement of Cash Flows, often heralded as the solution to distorted financial statements, is possibly the most flawed. Valens Securities systematically reclassifies the severe accounting distortions, providing a base for far more accurate business analytics.
Our Earnings Call Forensics™ have been featured on CNBC and in Institutional Investor Magazine. This "ECF™" is a powerful, proprietary process for studying and evaluating management's physiology and other behavioral characteristics of management during quarterly earnings calls and other public presentations. We use tools and systems that other sell-side firms and credit agencies have been either unwilling or unable to use. Their reluctance to use these technologies often stems from their fear of endangering their relationships with management teams.
Valens Credit Ratings and CDS research and pricing have made Valens Credit one of the most read authors on Seeking Alpha. The application of "Fundamental Forensics" to credit default assessments and recovery rates has contributed to the body of knowledge of corporate credit analysis that has been presented to over 30 CFA Society city and country events.
Our focus on "Incentives Dictate Behavior™" has uncovered management incentives and drivers of corporate actions that have been prescient in securities analysis. Our team focuses on the incentives and structures that highlight management’s collective and personal risk tolerance for the company, capital structure inclinations, and propensity for certain corporate actions. This uncovers hidden payout incentives that drive the value and risk of a company’s obligations and ultimate equity value. IDB™ has also been featured in the highly-acclaimed book, DRIVEN: Business Strategy, Human Actions, and the Creation of Wealth.
Valens Securities analysis teams are actually team-based with no “star analysts”. Our Chief Investment Strategist, Joel Litman, serves as committee chair for final edit of our publications. Our conflict avoidance procedures exceed that of any major agency, reducing analyst biases as we accept no issuer consulting fees and we report full disclosures of any related interests.
We disclose any holdings of any of our personnel or affiliates in any securities of the firm being rated, and not simply the credit. For holdings of any of our committee members, or any individual employee who provided analysis contributing to a particular rating, we disclose equity, credit, or options of that particular company being rated.
In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula from Wharton School of Finance that required an advanced background in math – that was in 1957. I have kept those old books of Charts, and the basic formula still produces profits. I'm pleased to say that the formula / algorithm is now calculated by computer, but I still get to draw fancy lines.
If you would like to have further information about my work / analytics or perhaps my Professional Services - - asset management, mentoring or consulting – services . . . just send me an Email, click here, ( firstname.lastname@example.org ) and I will respond promptly. Please understand that this offer is for serious investors. I expect you to share just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives - that is important to me.
Furthermore, I never read or respond to the Seeking Alpha generated Messages or any Comments on my articles. Unfortunately, my experience has been very unsatisfactory. If you are seriously interested in learning more about what I do - - please Email me. email@example.com
I write a bi-weekly personal blog you might like. click here. http://twitter.com/#!/Invest Rotation
Education: I have several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and two doctorates. And a great deal of (too much) continued financial education. For seven years, I was a University Professor of Finance and Economics. No question, I learned more than I taught!
Licenses: I had all that were needed / required and more.
Designations: Over all those years, there were many initials after my name!
Business Experience: I owned a privately held asset-management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.
Published Articles: I have written and published over 400 papers / articles for both local and national circulation.
Current Status: In late 2007 I came out of retirement and re-entered my writing financial commentaries in various financial blogs. I began a Weekly, Commentary / Update for the ex-patriot locals here in Mexico. In my first issue, October 2007 – I recommended - Holding 100% Cash and forecast that the Marketplace was at a Top that was meaningful. To date, within this Weekly – Commentary / Update I have accurately identified all Inflection Points, i.e. the 2009 February and subsequent Lows. The December and the recent April Highs were also forecasted and identified.
I have resumed offering Asset Management and Consulting / Mentoring services as a Boutique Research Firm Financial Analyst. Email me if you might be interestes. click here.
I am currently also Blogging with SafeHaven.com / Community.Nasdaq.com and of course here in SA. I also maintain a Private Blog, click here ( http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation ). For twelve years, I maintained an International Website - Called: "The MoneyDr."
Something to Ponder for those of you that might choose to "Follow" - - or choose Not to "Follow":
A little monolog to set myself apart from those who call themselves - "traders":
Over all these, many years of managing assets, I have witnessed a large number of tragic situations as told to me by scores of Investors. It quickly became clear to me, early on in my career, that the financial industry is wrought with many divisive ways to separate you from your money. It takes advantage of words and emotion like: greed, fortune, comfortable retirement, etc. while at the same time restricting, if not preventing the you the Investor from understanding how to make money at a fair rate of return and to do so consistently. Over the recent years, "they" (Wall Street) has upped the requirements (complexity) for the average guy or gal to become a successful Investor. That's tragic!
Perhaps the biggest lie and sales pitch and flow of miss-leading information is the “Buy and Hold” philosophy, "they" (Wall Street, Mutual Funds, the Media, and Financial Salespersons) continuously pro-pound. B & H has not been a path to successful investing and profits for several decades, and I am sure, never will! I have written many articles with the secondary title: “Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money." It hits hard, and the brokerage community has made life tough for me (retaliation wise) on many occasions over these years. My continuous debunking of their ways and personal goals to a lush financial lifestyle, using your money, is simple not on their agenda.
The reality regarding Wall Street is that they want to make money off you, not With or For You! They are smarter (within their field) than the average Investor, in particularly by just knowing how things work, but never sharing the simple – How To - with YOU. I continue to believe that these truths and facts should be well understood by Investors, but unfortunately, and apparently it/they are not! For me, simple logic says that any professional is better trained, within their given field, then the lay or inexperienced person. Investors seeking only a fair and honest flow of profits as well as information and data are frequently disappointed.
There is now a new and equally serious problem as is the Buy and Hold philosophy. It’s the Investor backlash to B & H, which is called Day Trading. DT is the new "" In "" answer, but once again people are not taking time to realize that "Investing" is much different than Day or Fast Trading.
Since Day Trading began the statistics complied by Lipper Analytical Services and Yankelovich Partners clearly show that this too (Day Trading or Fast Trading) is a Big Loser for the average guy or gal. These two companies are highly regarded in the field of providing statistical information and data as well as offering excellent articles on and about the financial industry. See Google regarding these companies.
"Investing Wisely" is kind of my handle and the methodology I have developed over the years is quite unique. I publish information about - how I go about making money, which is available upon request.
I would like to ask you to ponder / think for a minute or so about the following question:
Who and What is your current broker or financial advisor?
Sure, many if not most have great credentials, and often a great deal of charisma, but it remains an undesirable fact that these people are simple “Salespersons." Is your medical Doctor or are your best friends – salespersons? In baseball talk, that’s (strike one through strike three all in a pitch - or did I mean sales-pitch?). You as an Investor have little choice or alternative but to deal with these highly motivated financial representatives. That's tragic.
Understanding these facts and concepts is the first step to your positive financial future and peace of mine.
Next on the list is finding an advisor / mentor, who will teach and share facts and truth with you, on a personalized basis, before you invest, not after you have lost a great deal of money.
I'm sure that we all understand that the cyber world has been permanently injected into our lives and lifestyle. Financial Blogs abound with an over-flowing supply of information and opinions. Most of which is often incorrect and filled with very persuasive salesmanship! Therefore, I regret to say / agree that, it is clearly difficult to find such an experienced and trustworthy professional to mentor and assist in guiding you through a profitable process of "Investing Wisely."
My advice is - keep digging until you find such a professional. Ask tough and direct questions to what appears to be an experienced and trustworthy advisor and, over time, see if his or her answers and communication have substance and give you a feeling that this professional honestly cares about YOU. Don't forget, the job description - it is to make money, and this is serious stuff.
I think you will find that the time you give to the consideration and evaluation of my work / analytics will be very profitable for you.
Thanks for taking the time to read my bio, I hope you can find the "right" professional "just for you" in all the important disciplines of life, and you can prosper financially with a smile.
Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.
Zach is a biotech investor with PhD training in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. In real life, he is a scientific writer specializing in continuing medical education. He hopes to provide a crucial piece of total due diligence as well as interesting insight into clinical findings that may impact readers' portfolios and lives.
Author of Quantitative Investing, the Quantitative Risk & Value letter and the free Market Timing Signals. Often in the SeekingAlpha top 5 on Portfolio Strategy. Available model portfolios: market neutral, growth, closed-end funds, Vix trading. For more information, click "send message".
PhD, Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, 20+ years working in various sectors and countries. Also a lifelong rock climber and ex ski-mountaineering racer.
I am a PhD candidate in deep learning. I mostly write on technology and have recently started a "under the hood" series on artificial intelligence and technology. If you want me to cover any specific piece of software, technology or company as part of the series, shoot me a message or comment.
I am a Ph.D. level scientist at a major pharmaceutical company. Previously I was an NIH Cancer Postdoctoral fellow at UPENN. Through my extensive research background, I am able to quickly decipher clinical information and act on it. I specialize in analyzing and trading biotech/healthcare stocks both long and short. I maintain a few core positions and trade clinical events based on extensive research to realize large percentage gains. I am open to opportunities in consulting for financial firms or local advisors. Please contact me if you are interested.
Christopher G.DeMaria is a member of the Global Community. Having lived abroad for more than 18 years, he studied in South America, Europe, Southeast Asia and the United States. Chris is the owner of DeMaria Financial Services and an Investment Advisor Representative with Kovack Investment Advisors, Inc. He began his career in financial planning and portfolio management in March of 1998 after earning a degree from Ohio University where he majored in Economics and minored in Business Administration.
Chris focuses on achieving "positive" results regardless of how the market indices perform. Unlike some managers, Chris manages the risk of each individual portfolio rather than remaining invested at all times. Chris strives to identify low risk entry points and conversely, uses a calculated exit strategy when market risk is high or positions are lagging or down. Chris does not try to beat an index every quarter. Instead, he is focused on the potential for low risk profits. If you manage risk well and avoid large corrections, you will naturally create much better results.
There is no new thing under the sun Ecc 1:9
The headlines in the news change daily and market leaders change regularly but, the one thing that remains consistent over time is how humans react to stock market volatility (aka fear and greed). During highly volatile markets and market inflection points, human emotion is a consistent and measurable phenomenon that generally isn’t accounted for in any research report or stock analysis. This observation precipitated the creation of the proprietary market risk meter for quantifying said human emotion and consequent reactions to short term market activity. Regardless of education, wealth, knowledge, or any other factor that may make a person seem wise, people react the same way when fear or greed sets in. No matter how many times a fire drill is rehearsed, when an emergency presents itself, the exit is often not pleasant.
This methodology is by no means perfect however, it is a best effort attempt to quantify the belief that many things will return to some sort of mean over time and that people consistently exhibit the same undulating responses to fear and greed. Consequently, it is possible to view the ebbs and flows of the markets as ocean tides. When the tide comes in, risk is higher and conversely, when the tide flows out, risk is lower. Although it is not possible to consistently predict exactly when a correction or bounce will occur, it is possible to determine when a change in trend is occurring. Furthermore, a sophisticated investor can often determine when there is more or less inherent risk in the market. It is also possible to examine whether the tide has come in further than normal, presenting greater risk or gone out further than normal, providing a rare lower-risk entry point.
When risk is elevated, active investors should begin trimming losers, laggards, and potentially take partial gains from winners in portfolios. Investors may also consider reviewing the types of positions worth holding when things get ugly. Long-term asset allocation investors can look at re-balancing portfolios by shifting equity gains to other less market correlated asset classes like bonds or cash alternatives. Some investors may also consider hedging strategies like selling calls, purchasing puts, or stop limit orders to try to mitigate risk.
Conversely, when risk is lower, a plan of action should already be in place with a buy list of favored mutual funds, equities, and ETF's having been identified. Secondly, it is essential to identify a high volume, high volatility, downside trading day that is coupled with a strong reversal and 1-2 days' follow through. When all of these conditions are met, this methodology recommends purchasing equities.
Methodology for determining favored sectors
Christopher G. DeMaria has over 18 years of experience managing money for individuals, corporations, and foundations. While adapting from successes and failures throughout some of the most challenging markets since the Great Depression (1998 to 2016), his methodology has been continuously tested over that time in order to improve its reliability and effectiveness.
Part of his investment methodology includes a quantitative approach to identifying changes in trends at early stages and continually monitoring their relative performance against one-another. This process uses simple mathematical ratios (IE: SPY /EFA or SPY/XLB) to determine when one asset class is performing better than another. When properly calibrated, these ratios provide a precise moment when the trend in one asset changes compared to another.
This process is most effective when portfolio holdings are methodically adjusted based on different levels of market risk and relative asset class performance. As stated above, when risk is higher, portfolio holdings should be reallocated out of lagging or losing asset classes and moved into leading, lower risk, or non-market correlated assets. This process inherently frees up cash for future “lower risk entry points” when assets can be allocated
back into equities and other favored assets. Essentially this is a systematic approach designed to attempt to purchase leading asset classes when market risk is lower and sell lagging and losing positions when market risk is higher. In the end, the goal is to buy low and sell high.
There are three key factors to successfully implementing this portfolio management process. The first is having sufficient knowledge and understanding of the financial markets which takes time to acquire. The second is having adequate time and dedication to develop skill. The third is having the proper discipline to continually monitor the process. Many individuals have some or even all of these characteristics but, simply lack the time, interest, or expertise to dedicate themselves to managing their own portfolios properly. With the exception of those whom are confident in their knowledge, skill, and discipline to manage this process, it is strongly advised to seek professional assistance.
This Risk Managed Global Sector Rotation strategy has been well documented on Seeking Alpha during the most recent correction. Furthermore, a full cycle from high risk to low risk and subsequent recovery was well documented on Seeking Alpha in 2014.
The Lows Still Appear To Be In...What's Next?
Wed, Feb. 24th, 2016 (confirming successful retest of lows and providing actionable ideas)
Weekly Leading Sectors Report
Wed, Feb. 10th, 2016 (confirminglows and providing actionable ideas)
In Hoc Signo Vinces... What Market Signs Are You Watching?
Fri, Feb. 5th, 2016 (confirming lows and providing a macroeconomic overview)
The Lows Appear To Be In... What's Next?
Tue, Jan. 26 (confirming lows and providing actionable ideas)
How Can You Identify Market Turning Points?... Reloaded
Thu, Jan. 21 (identifying lows, Dow Theory discussion and providing actionable ideas)
2014 Full Cycle
This Looks Like The Lower-Risk Buying Opportunity We've Been Waiting For
Oct. 24th, 2014 (identifying lows and providing actionable ideas)
Preparing For A Lower-Risk Entry Point In A Secular Bull Market
Oct. 13th, 2014(preparing for the lows and providing actionable ideas)
The Quiet Before The Little Storm
Jul. 8th, 2014 (warning about higher risk and preparing for volatility and short term correction)
How Can You Adjust Your Investment Strategy To Enhance Returns?
May 28th, 2014 (explanation of a possible long term secular bull market and actionable ideas)
Bay Area Biotech is a group of self-organized life science graduate/medical/business students and postdoctoral scholars who are interested in utilizing our scientific training to evaluate biotechnologies and identify investment opportunities. Opinions published here are those of the authors.
I am a part time investor focused on building my family's wealth incrementally over the long term by investing in companies that are well positioned to benefit from important macroeconomic themes. I have a passion for research and hold a M.S from the University of Pennsylvania. I have been an active investor for well over a decade and consider the understanding of global markets and major economic themes as one of my life's passions. I believe that investors can build wealth over the long term by ignoring short term market fluctuations and market "noise" to focus on global economic themes and fundamental company performance.
I've worked on Wall Street for the last 20 or so years in equities, equity derivatives, fixed income and fixed income derivatives. Most of my profession career has been spent at RBC. I'm currently taking a break in my career to spend some time with family and manage my personal portfolio
Medical doctor and independant investor. My investment strategy is to utilize my medical education, combined with market technical and fundamental analysis, to find undervalued biopharmaceutical investments which have a high likelihood of increasing in value over a specified time period. I look for companies whose stocks have recently dropped due to technical factors, misunderstood data or undervalued market opportunity among other factors.