Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bestforecast's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • IBM: Hidden Value In Under-Utilized Industry Knowledge [View article]
    I'm wondering, how many SA commenters are actually running a business? What I mean is, running a business is tuff. I get into arguements with some of my customers, especially the most pickiest and poorest, yet I am still in business and have a sterling reputation. I can't please all the people, it's impossible! You target a market and do the best you can. As long as you can please the majority of the market, I think you'll do pretty good... Going on 26 years now..
    IBM is no different as a business, albeit it is gigantic! I'm sure they have picky customers as well which for whatever reason, do not want to pay. Perhaps we as investors should take all this into account and not just go by "the numbers" sometimes the numbers just buy you an entry price but fail to value the importance of the ongoing business as a whole... Sure they're not growing revenues, and sure they have issues, but if it's a relevant business and from the transition going on, it seems to be, then it will more than likely succeed. After all isn't this what value investing is all about? And value investing doesn't mean the stock is going to skyrocket tomorrow, but given enough time, it should surprise to the upside. I believe most negative commenters either have low patience or are shorting the stock, what else can it be?
    May 10, 2015. 12:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's Is Reporting This Week And It Has Had A Great Run Into The Announcement [View article]
    Abba, Moodys aquisitions have been a good fit over the years. In specific ICRA. As you already know, Europe and the other countries are going through a recession and companies usually issue debt ( rated by credit rating agencies ), when interest rates are low. Moody's should at least meet analyst expectations if not top them. The same is true with MHFI, it's direct competitor. However, I understand your concerns, as I purchased MCO at $25.00 and it has not stopped rising. Good luck ; ).
    May 1, 2015. 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's First Quarter: What's Really Encouraging [View article]
    I guess amazons web service is a high margin business right?
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Business Machines' (IBM) Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    "Let he who is without sin cast the first stone", we all wish companies were run by nuns and mother thereasa. The reality is all companies have to put their best foot foward and try and be as realistic as possible without blatantly lying.. I believe the transformation is going well considering all the problems they have had to deal with. Will stay invested and wish you all the best in your investment careers!
    Apr 22, 2015. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Stock And The Case For Exceptional Patience [View article]
    Agreed good thinking. That is the problem with "tech". IBM on the other hand in my opinion is a diversified service company using technology to compliment and offer its business services to enterprise org. It's a fine line but still worth noting.
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Recurring Income Streams Justify A Higher Market Cap [View article]
    Hey thanks for your honesty. May I ask what "proprietary relationships" you refer to? Also can you give us the "health status" of their channel streams? Also how long ago did you leave. Appreciate if you can share. Thx.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Recurring Income Streams Justify A Higher Market Cap [View article]
    Do you own any IBM stock? Are you long or short?
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Transition Developing Favorably [View article]
    Great article Tom.. I was waiting to hear about your answer to fx. And I'll have to agree with you about spikes reverting to the mean. Your values may be a tad low but I would rather they be low and be pleasantly surprised, than be high and be shockingly disappointed.. lol.
    Mar 16, 2015. 09:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    I guess we'll have to see how the next few quarters pan out. Perhaps you are spot on, I don't know. If they fail to sell mainframes in any noticeable amount it will be reflected in the next few earnings releases since they just completed the z13 series. I'm pretty sure they will miss revenues, that's a given. I'm most interested in by how much and how fast their strategic imperatives are growing. If you have the info on how IBM is reducing its mainframe staff would appreciate a text, thank you.
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    You are most welcome, I'll admit IBM does have its share of issues, however I don't think they're impossible to work out. Sooner or later they will get deals done with or without apple, blackberry or samsung and I believe they still have something to offer. It is times such as these I choose to invest because the downside appears limited more so than the upside. And yes I could be wrong, however from what I have been through and read, big formidable corp which pay dividends with manageable debt and low PE's usually can "figure it out".
    Mar 14, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    Msft, orcle, are both pretty good businesses with good business models.. I havn't read enough about their management to gauge their effectiveness other than by looking at their 10 year performance metrics. Unfortunately, their share prices also reflect their popularity. I believe they too are having issues trying to monetize their software now that cloud has come into the picture.

    One edge IBM may hold over the industry is perhaps its mainframe which big institutions still need from a reliability, security, and performance aspect. I have read there are very few mainframe venders left and IBM is the biggest one. Eventually, IBM's revenue loss should subside as the other competitors leave and less and less of their smaller customers choose public cloud or other venders with generic servers.

    I believe IBM will charge more for its hybrid cloud as opposed to generic cloud vendors.. Sort of what AXP does with its closed business model.
    Once the mainframe market gets stabilized, and the new growth areas begin to contribute to revenues or even just the mere projections of when this could happen, investors will jump back in. I think these are the types of companies an investor should be buying. A big name company which has slipped. As revenue stabilizes and their strategic imperatives take hold, there share price should ascend. Perhaps by the end of the year.

    As long as IBM's management continues to make progress on both the revenue stabilization and growth in their strategic imperatives Im a buyer and will patiently hold. I have seen too many great companies fall from grace and now trade at 12 times earnings when they where once at 18. I believe all cloud companies will rise based on how the industry of Iot is growing, I believe it is far more likely for IBM to trade in the future at 18 times earnings than at 6.

    So what makes IBM different? Its big institutional ties, its R&D division and its size. And sure not all inventions will bear fruit, but eventually some will. For example if your a big customer and process highly sensitive data, i.e. financial institutions, health organizations, insurance companies..etc. What companies are out there in which you'll entrust your big data handling needs? And what else can they offer besides cloud? And will they still be relevent 10 years from now?

    IBM is not going to deliver returns like a high growth FB or Gopro, all I'm saying is its got the makings of a good investment at the time being and can perhaps give you a decent return on your money with little or low risk. Thats what I'm looking for, consistency, predictability and open communication.

    Mar 14, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    Spdf Just think about this, IBM is building out data centers in every major financial center through out the world. It is a leader in mainframe technology and architecture that can process billions of transactions per day. It has purchased software companies which can transfer big blocks of data, quickly and securely. Its mainframe servers are already in use by major financial institutions throughout the world. If the fed and the central banks do agree to accept this type of digital block chain technology, which business do you suppose is already set up to process big data from bank to bank? IBM. So if IBM manages most of the big banks money transactions using this new "block chain" technology, will it not improve its foothold on all major global financial institutions? Not to mention the increase in data which will flow through its infrastructure? It almost seems like it may end up being the only "business" of choice the fed or IBM's big bank customers can choose. Thereby cementing it's highly reliable and secure mainframe moat. Of course that is "IF" block chain ever becomes accepted to move digital money around, not just bit coin, but all currencies world wide.
    Mar 14, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]

    Perhaps this might help IBM's monopolistic profit margins....
    Mar 13, 2015. 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Why I'm Now Bearish [View article]
    Do not listen to the financial press. They are just noise.. Focus on where the company will be in the next 5 to 10 years! Do not get caught up in the negative neds.. Do your own research and base it on the companies experience, numbers, size, strategy and future probabilities. Try and master your emotions people.
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Cloud Services (Part 2) [View article]
    Hey thanks for the Great read on IAAS, PAAS, and SAAS... I 'm glad someone put it all together, Hmm with projected new areas of $40B by 2018 that implies an annual growth rate of about 12.5%. Lets experiment and take out cloud revenues just to see what we could " theoretically" get at the end of 4 years.

    If we subtract cloud of 7B from their current 25B in revenues, we get 18B. From reading IBM's 4th qtr transcript their data analytics is growing at 7% a year, so lets assume 7% growth for the rest of the growth imperatives as a whole. This would imply $23B in revenues from data at the end of 4 years and along with $20B from cloud would equate to about $43B in total revenues from all of their strategic imperatives. This assumes data will continue to grow at 7% and cloud to grow at a conservative 30% per year. If IBM can execute seamlessly and grow data faster than 7% and cloud greater than 30%, then it could "theoretically" end up with more than $43B in revenues at the end of 4 years...

    The question now remaining is how much revenues will the other legacy areas contribute/produce at the end of 4 years? Long IBM.
    Mar 6, 2015. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment