I am an early career scientific researcher who has taken a strong interest in investing, both for achieving my personal financial goals as well as serving as an alternative conduit where critical and logical thinking are rewarded. I write articles to share ideas, refine my own thinking and invite discussion from the astute readership of Seeking Alpha.
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Within the academic field, I have a career total of 89 publications and 5 book chapters, 2,900 total citations and an h-index of 32 (metrics from Google Scholar).
Kevin is the CEO and founder of Blue Water Capital Advisors. He is involved in all aspects of the business, including portfolio management, financial advisory services, team management and business development, and he is Chairman of the Investment Committee. Kevin is an experienced speaker and is available (under certain conditions) by request.
Kevin brings a unique perspective to wealth and risk management that is very intuitive and measured. Clients are confident in his abilities and trust that their assets are managed by the best in the business. Although he has been a leader within the regional wealth management industry for the majority of the last two decades, it is not his first career. He was a petroleum geologist and academic research scientist for 17 years in his first career. Kevin’s keen sense of risk-reward dynamics was developed during his geological career when he served as an exploration team leader and senior manager in the oil and gas exploration business. He drilled over 100 wells on his own geological interpretations and found millions of barrels of oil. This was a very high risk kind of business, and Kevin learned a great deal about how risk really works from his experiences in exploration geology.
He was also a professor at The University of New Hampshire and Bryn Mawr College for several years and has published 11 papers in international scientific journals and books. Highlights of Kevin’s geological career include surviving a violent well blowout, working as a consultant to Phillips Petroleum, Texaco, Exxon, and numerous independent firms, acting as a Principal Investigator on a dinosaur dig in Montana, diving Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, teaching and advising students, receiving numerous research awards and grants, and conducting funded scientific research on sedimentology, paleoceanography, paleoclimatology, geochemistry, and global plate tectonics.
Kevin left his geology career when the global oil price collapse finally caught up to him in 1992. He went into the financial advising industry because his father had been a nationally-ranked leader in that field with a major national firm, so he felt comfortable with making the transition. Over the years he was awarded the Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) designation and has completed about half of the coursework for a Master’s degree in Financial Services. Kevin served as a Trust Officer and Vice President for a major Midwestern regional bank for seven years, and served as a Senior Vice President at National Bank of Commerce in Duluth for four years. He was a member and board member of the Arrowhead Estate Planning Council for a number of years. He has a refined sense of the big economic picture that is grounded in his ability to differentiate meaningful information from “noise,” as he once did while working in science and petroleum geology. Kevin is the principal shareholder of Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC.
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University of Virginia, class of 2011 B.A. English
I am a young investor focused primarily on dividend growth stocks. Seeking Alpha, and more specifically, the dividend and income community that exists here, has played a significant role in my development as a portfolio manager. I am not a professional, though I do manage my family's finances. I enjoy the process; the research, the decision making, the strategic planning...and not paying a financial adviser to do the work for me. I've built what I believe to be a conservative, diverse, and balanced dividend growth portfolio currently consisting of 48 positions. Thus far, I've been able to meet by goals from income, income growth, and capital appreciation standpoints. I use a wide variety of metrics, both fundamental and technical, when establishing fair value when doing my due diligence on an individual company. All of my methods are discussed in my work here. I hope this work inspires debate, conversation, and education - this is why I write for Seeking Alpha, to give back to the community that has helped me so much and to hopefully contribute, in some way...even if its by posing a question, to the growth of others.
Lastly, I began doing this in early 2015 and I plan on continuing to do so: I donate as much of the earnings that I get from SA on a monthly basis to various charities. Depending on how active I am writing each month, and what sort of side projects I have going on at the farm my wife and I recently purchased, the amount donated each month differs. However, I am pleased to be able to give back - I think its important to stay grounded and gracious when focusing so much on finances and these monthly donations help me not to lose sight of generosity.
*I should note that all articles that I write here are done so for my personal informational/educational purposes only. Any purchases that I make or opinions that I express are not meant as recommendations for anyone else. Please perform your own due diligence before following my lead into or out of a position. I am not a professional. I enjoy investing and the open discussion that articles on this site inspire - this is why I write, not to influence anyone else's decisions, but to enhance my own ability to make sound financial choices. That being said, I wish the best of luck to everyone. May we all meet our own financial goals.
I own each of the 353 stocks listed below. Data is from early November. Retired at age 60, currently age 63. Living off pensions and social security. I do not intend to draw on dividends before 2017. Total Portfolio yield 3.30%.
Percentage of portfolio allocation based on dividend yield:
Growth yield, 0%: 13.0%
Growth and Income yield, 0.1% - 2.7%: 30.0%
Slow Growth and Income yield, 2.71% - 5.0%: 40.0%
Income yield, 5.1% and up: 17.0%
FastGraph Total Value Data if $10K was invested with all dividends reinvested for 19 year time frame unless stated other wise if you invested in that stock for that entire time:
Symbol : Descrip : Yield : Total Value : # yrs of accumulation
AAPL : APPLE INC : 2.0400 : $1,499,172 : 19
ABBV : ABBVIE INC : 4.3400 : $18,691 : 5
ABC : AMERISOURCE : 1.8600 : $131,147 : 19
ABT : ABBOTT LAB : 2.7300 : $24,463 : 19
ACN : ACCENTURE : 2.0300 : $98,348 : 17
ADNT : ADIENT : 0.0000 : xxxxxxx : 0
ADBE : ADOBE SYS : 0.0000 : $213,667 : 19
ADP : AUTOMATIC : 2.3700 : $75,117 : 19
AEP : AMERICAN EL : 3.9900 : $39,335 : 19
AFL : AFLAC : 2.4200 : $76,219 : 19
AGN : ALLERGAN : 0.0000 : $86,787 : 19
AGR : AVANGRID : 4.4700 : $10,281 : 1
AHGP : ALLIANCE GP : 7.3900 : $26,175 : 12
AIG : AMERICAN INTL : 1.9200 : $86,787 : 19
ALGN : ALIGN TECH : 0.0000 : $67,318 : 16
AMAT : APPLIED MAT : 1.2600 : $106,283 : 19
AMGN : AMGEN : 2.7700 : $110,490 : 19
AMP : AMERIPRISE : 2.6400 : $30,189 : 12
AMT : AMERI TOW : 2.0400 : $48,905 : 19
AMTD : TD AMERITRADE : 1.6400 : $370,212 : 19
AMZN : AMAZON : 0.0000 : $5,033,670 : 19
ANET : ARISTA NET : 0.0000 : $14,102 : 3
ANTM : ANTHEM : 1.8400 : $62,533 : 16
AOS : AO SMITH : 1.0000 : $100,660 : 8
APD : AIR PROD : 2.4600 : $71,341 : 19
APH : AMPHENOL : 0.9300 : $521,038 : 19
APU : AMERIGAS LP : 8.1600 : $99,635 : 19
ARCC : ARES CAP : 9.6300 : $26,695 : 12
ARLP : ALLIANCE LP : 7.4500 : $210,304 : 17
ASIX : ADVANSIX : 0.0000 : xxxxxxxxxx : 0
ATVI : ACTIVISION : 0.7000 : $356,873 : 17
AVA : AVISTA : 3.3300 : $44,824 : 19
AVGO : BROADCOM : 1.1000 : $104,413 : 7
AVY : AVERY DEN : 2.2900 : $33,390 : 19
AWK : AMERIC WAT : 2.0200 : $42,372 : 9
AZO : AUTOZONE : 0.0000 : $252,295 : 19
BA : BOEING CO : 2.9200 : $39,033 : 19
BABA : ALIBABA : 0.0000 : $10,982 : 3
BAC : BANK OF AMER : 1.4800 : $11,625 : 19
BAX : BAXTER : 1.1300 : $33,476 : 19
BBL : BHP BIL : 4.6300 : $34,194 : 19
BCE : BCE : 4.7300 : $37,915 : 19
BCR : CR BARD : 0.5000 : $191,509 : 19
BDX : BECTON : 1.5700 : $107,662 : 19
BERY : BERRY PLAST : 0.0000 : $30,551 : 5
BFB : BROWN FOR : 1.5700 : $127,127 : 19
BGS : B & G FOODS : 4.4100 : $52,980 : 10
BIDU : BAIDU : 0.0000 : $203,050 : 11
BIG : BIG LOTS : 1.7.000 : $21,556 : 19
BIIB : BIOGEN : 0.0000 : $699,797 : 19
BIP : BROOKFIELD : 4.7300 : $64,689 : 9
BLK : BLACKROCK : 2.4600 : $299,257 : 18
BLL : BALL : 0.6700 : $99,257 : 19
BMO : BANK OF MONT : 3.8900 : $89,049 : 19
BMY : BRISTOL MYERS : 2.6900 : $37,289 : 19
BNS : BANK NOVA : 4.0700 : $54,296 : 19
BP : BP : 6.8900 : $20,618 : 19
BPL : BUCKEYE : 7.5500 : $118,312 : 19
BRKB : BERKSHIRE : 0.0000 : $24,345 : 12
BSX : BOSTON SCI : 0.0000 : $14,374 : 19
BUD : ANHEUSER : 3.4100 : $34,511 : 8
BURL : BURLINGTON : 0.0000 : $25,846 : 4
BWLD : BUFFA WILD : 0.0000 : $129,657 : 14
BYDDY : BYD COMP : 0.0000 : $14,3614 : 10
C : CITIGROUP : 1.1400 : $4,511 : 19
CAH : CARDINAL : 2.5600 : $32,423 : 19
CB : CHUBB : 2.1800 : $90,977 : 19
CBRL : CRACKER BARL : 2.8200 : $77,950 : 19
CE : CELANESE : 0.0000 : $56,508 : 19
CELG : CELGENE : 0.0000 : $2,231,715 : 19
*CEQP : CRESTWOOD : 11.0600 : $1,695 : 19
CERN : CERNER : 0.0000 : $270,039 : 19
CHD : CHURCH & DWIGHT : 1.5800 : $289,220 : 19
CHTR : CHARTER COMM : 0.0000 : $63,734 : 8
CIM : CHIMERA INVEST : 11.9500 : $5,597 : 9
CINF : CINCINNATI FINAN : 2.5500 : $67,030 : 19
CL : COLGATE : 2.3500 : $87,914 : 19
*CLMT : CALUMET : 0.0000 : $3,555 : 11
CLX : CLOROX : 2.7500 : $77,447 : 19
CMCSA : COMCAST : 1.5900 : $61,211 : 19
CMG : CHIPOTLE : 0.0000 : $77,953 : 11
CNC : CENTENE : 0.0000 : $168,412 : 16
COF : CAPTIAL ONE : 1.8100 : $89,689 : 19
COR : CORESITE : 3.0200 : $53,075 : 7
COST : COSTCO : 1.1800 : $184,380 : 19
CRM : SALESFORCE : 0.0000 : $185,115 : 13
CSCO : CISCO : 3.4800 : $50,685 : 19
CSL : CARLISLE : 1.2400 : $95,348 : 19
CTAS : CINTAS : 1.1600 : $68,637 : 19
CTSH : COGNIZANT : 0.0000 : $2,072,423 : 19
CVS : CVS HEALTH : 2.3100 : $94,814 : 19
CVX : CHEVRON : 3.9100 : $61,838 : 19
D : DOMINION : 3.8300 : $90,601 : 19
DEO : DIAGEO : 3.0900 : $46,418 : 19
DG : DOLLAR GEN : 1.2600 : $29,796 : 8
DHR : DANAHER : 0.6400 : $137,744 : 19
DIS : WALT DISNEY : 1.4500 : $54,656 : 19
DLPH : DELPHI AUTO : 1.7300 : $33,625 : 6
DLR : DIGITAL REALTY : 3.8300 : $111,079 : 12
DLTH : DULUTH : 0.0000 : $23,338 : 1
DLTR : DOLLAR TREE : 0.0000 : $193,610 : 19
DNKN : DUNKIN : 2.2400 : $20,380 : 5
DPM : DCP MIDSTREAM : 9.0500 : $29,089 : 12
DPS : DR PEPPER : 2.4200 : $37,527 : 9
DRE : DUKE REALTY : 3.0800 : $41,163 : 19
DUK : DUKE ENERGY : 4.6300 : $20,124 : 19
DY : DYCOM INDUST : 0.0000 : $140,099 : 19
EA : ELECTRONIC ARTS 0.0000 : $85,854 : 19
EADSY : AIRBUS : 1.6600 : $13,171 : 9
ED : CONSOLIDATED ED : 3.8100 : $40,834 : 19
EEFT : EURONET WORLDWIDE : 0.0000 : $56,760 : 19
EEP : ENBRIDGE : 9.6100 : $37,843 : 19
EFX : EQUIFAX : 1.1300 : $45,677 : 19
EPD : ENTERPRISE : 6.3100 : $79,927 : 12
ESRX : EXPRESS SCRIPT : 0.0000 : $605,298 : 19
ETE : ENERGY TRANSF : 6.4200 : $36,772 : 19
ETP : ENERGY TRANSF : 11.9900 : $38,328 : 19
EW : EDWARDS LIFE : 0.0000 : $264,348 : 17
EXPE : EXPEDIA : 0.8200 : $26,616 : 19
EXR : EXTRA SPACE : 4.4700 : $62,034 : 19
FB : FACEBOOK : 0.0000 : $40,794 : 19
FBHS : FORTUNE BRAN : 1.1300 : $44,096 : 19
FDS : FACTSET : 1.2400 : $387,984 : 19
FDX : FEDEX : 0.8500 : $91,770 : 19
FISV : FISERVE : 0.0000 : $179,873 : 19
FIVE : FIVE BELOW : 0.0000 : $12,113 : 5
FIZZ : NATIONAL BEV : 0.0000 : $117,020 : 19
FL : FOOT LOCKER INC : 1.5000 : $35,724 : 19
FLO : FLOWERS FOODS : 3.9600 : $109,025 : 16
FTV : FORTIVE : 0.5100 : xxxxxx : 0
GAIN : GLADSTONE : 9.2700 : $9,673 : 11
GD : GENERAL DYNAMICS : 1.7900 $99,132 : 19
GE : GENERAL ELECT : 2.9500 : $26,247 : 19
GILD : GILEAD SCIENCES : 2.5200 $961,090 : 19
GIS : GENERAL MILLS : 3.0600 : $51,761 : 19
GLP : GLOBAL LP : 11.4200 : $16,185 : 19
GNTX : GENTEX : 1.9600 : $78,232 : 19
GOOGL : ALPHABET : 0.0000 : $152,604 : 13
GPC : GENUINE PARTS : 2.7100 : $39,766 : 19
GRUB : GRUBHUB : 0.0000 : $11,842 : 2
GS : GOLDMAN SACHS : 1.2300 : $36,945 : 19
HAIN : HAIN CELESTIAL : 0.0000 : $177,150 : 19
HBI : HANESBRANDS : 1.8200 : $50,384 : 11
HCA : HCA HOLDINGS : 0.0000 : $22,243 : 6
HCN : WELLTOWER : 5.5100 : $108,937 : 19
HD : HOME DEPOT : 2.1100 : $131,250 : 19
HEINY : HEINEKEN : 1.6900 : $72,956 : 19
HELE : HELEN OF TROY : 0.0000 : $90,849 : 19
HEP : HOLLY ENERGY : 7.0600 : $51,834 : 12
HFC : HOLLYFRONTIER : 4.5000 : $264,301 : 19
HII : HUNTINGTON INGALLS : 1.3400 : $36,799 : 6
HOLX : HOLOGIC : 0.0000 : $54,400 : 19
HON : HONEYWELL : 2.3600 : $49,885 : 19
HP : HELMERICH : 4.0300 : $73,828 : 19
HRL : HORMEL : 1.9000 : $177,018 : 19
HRS : HARRIS CORP : 2.0400 : $81,833 : 19
HSY : HERSHEY : 2.5300 : $69,865 : 19
HUM : HUMANA : 0.55000 : $119,922 : 19
ICE : INTERCONTIN EXC : 1.2500 : $87,562 : 12
ICLR : ICON : 0.0000 : $119,922 : 19
INCY : INCYTE : 0.0000 : $80,877 : 19
INGN : INOGEN : 0.0000 : $32,861 : 2
INGR : INGREDION : 1.7000 : $103,711 : 19
INTC : INTEL : 2.9300 : $29,385 : 19
INTU : INTUIT : 1.2000 : $266,692 : 19
IP : INTERNATIONAL PAPER : 3.450 : 23,720 : 19
ISRG : INTUITIVE SURG : 0.0000 : $355,719 : 11
ITW : ILLINOIS TOOL : 2.0900 : $82,240 : 19
JAZZ : JAZZ PHARMA : 0.0000 : $64,437 : 10
JCI : JOHNSON CONTROLS : 2.5600 : $95,264 : 19
JNJ : JOHNSON & JOHNSON : 2.8400 : $73,057 : 19
JPM : JP MORGAN : 2.4400 : $40,066 : 19
KHC : KRAFT HEINZ : 2.8500 : $10,891 : 1
KKR : KKR COMPANY : 4.1500 : $22,917 : 7
KMB : KIMBERLY CLARK : 3.2100 : $41,885 : 19
KMI : KINDER MORGAN : 2.2800 : $8,240 : 6
KO : COCA COLA : 3.3800 : $24,960 : 19
KR : KROGER : 1.4300 : $36,782 : 19
LB : L BRANDS : 3.3900 : $58,340 : 19
LBRDA : LIBERTY BROADBAND : 0.0000 : $13,199 ; 2
LBTYA : LIBERTY GLOBAL : 0.0000 : $32,782 : 12
LEA : LEAR : 0.9300 : $40,627 : 8
LEG : LEGGETT & PLATT : 2.7600 : $37,194 : 19
LKQ : LKQ CORP : 0.0000 : $145,157 : 14
LLY : ELI LILLY : 2.6800 : $18,859 : 19
LMT : LOCKHEED MARTIN : 2.7500 : $70,742 : 19
LNT : ALLIANT ENERGY : 3.2500 : $56,216 : 19
LOW : LOWES COMPANIES : 1.9600 : $125,213 :19
LXP : LEXINGTON REALTY : 6.7200 : $27,622 : 19
LYB : LYONDELLBASELL : 3.8800 : $42,046 : 19
MA : MASTERCARD : 0.7200 : $239,522 : 11
MAIN : MAIN STREET : 6.2100 : $46,833 : 9
MANH : MANHATTAN ASSOC : 0.0000 : $88,786 : 19
MAS : MASCO : 1.2300 : $19,129 : 19
MBLY : MOBILEYE : 0.0000 : $8,536 : 2
MCD : MCDONALDS : 3.1400 : $72,085 : 19
MCK : MCKESSON : 0.7900 : $31,241 : 19
MDLZ : MONDELEZ : 1.7500 : $20,493 : 16
MDT : MEDTRONIC : 2.2000 : $40,627 : 19
MELI : MERCADOLIBRE : 0.3600 : $57,647 : 11
MFA : MFA FINANCIAL : 10.2400 : $54,231 : 19
MHK : MOHAWK : 0.0000 : $79,068 : 19
MHLD : MAIDEN : 3.6100 : $25,130 : 9
MIDD : MIDDLEBY CORP : 0.0000 : $1,301,751 : 19
MKC : MCCORMICK : 1.8500 : $95,179 : 19
MLM : MARTIN MARIET : 0.7600 : $127,396 : 19
MMM : 3M COMPANY : 2.5800 : $62,832 : 19
MMP : MAGELLAN MID : 4.8600 : $237,472 : 16
MNST : MONSTER BEV : 0.0000 : $11,935,569 : 19
MO : ALTRIA : 3.800 : $42,603 : 19
MOMO : MOMO : 0.0000 : $19,591 : 1
MPC : MARATHON : 2.970 : $26,810 : 5
MPWR : MONOLITHIC : 0.9500 : $80,246 : 13
MRK : MERCK : 3.0500 : $28,069 : 19
MSEX : MIDDLESEX : 1.9800 : $87,494 : 19
MSFT : MICROSOFT : 2.5500 : $94,213 : 19
MTCH : MATCH GROUP : 0.0000 : $12,375 : 1
MXIM : MAXIM INTEGRAT : 3.2900 : $65,23 : 19
NDAQ : NASDAQ : 1.9500 : $58,979 : 11
NDSN : NORDSON : 0.9900 : $95,386 : 19
NEE : NEXTERA : 3.0600 : $106,667 : 19
NFLX : NETFLIX : 0.0000 : $1,285,861 : 18
NHI : NATIONAL HEALTH : 5.0200 : $80,333 : 19
NKE : NIKE INC : 1.3900 : $84,144 : 19
NNN : NATIONAL RETAIL : 4.3300 : $107,952 : 19
NOC : NORTHROP : 1.4500 : $84,511 : 19
NS : NUSTAR ENERGY : 9.2100 : $46,972 : 19
NTES : NETEASE : 1.2900 : $3,157,907 : 17
NUE : NUCOR : 2.4100 : $59,420 : 19
NVDA : NVIDIA : 0.6000 : $453,736 : 19
NVEE : NV5 GLOBAL : 0.0000 : $37,338 : 4
NVO : NOVO : 3.0100 : $247,842 : 19
NWBI : NORTHWEST BANC : 3.3000 : $91,721 : 19
O : REALTY INCOME : 4.2800 : $166,197 : 19
OA : ORBITAL ATK : 1.4000 : $11,455 : 2
OHI : OMEGA HEALTH : 8.4800 : $35,165 : 19
OKE : ONEOK : 4.6000 : $133,150 : 19
OKS : ONEOK PART : 7.5200 : $118,498 : 19
ORLY : O REILLY AUTO : 0.0000 : $80,543 : 19
OXY : OCCIDENTAL : 4.3900 : $100,639 : 19
OZRK : BANK OF OZARK : 1.3700 : $427,854 : 19
PAA : PLAINS ALL AMERI : 6.9200 : $102,084 : 19
PANW : PALO ALTO NET : 0.0000 : $25,902 : 6
PAYC : PAYCOM SOFT : 0.0000 : $28,417 : 3
PAYX : PAYCHEX : 3.2000 : $75,046 : 19
PCLN : PRICELINE : 0.0000 : $28,643 : 17
PEP : PEPSICO : 2.9300 : $55,142 : 19
PF : PINNACLE FOODS : 2.2600 : $25,164 : 4
PFE : PFIZER : 3.8300 : $38,599 : 19
PG : PROCTER & GAMBLE : 3.2400 : $55,382 : 19
PHK : PIMCO HIGH INCOME : 3.9800 : $24,577 : 10
PLNT : PLANET FITNESS : 0.000 : $11,633 : 2
PM : PHILIP MORRIS : 4.6200 : $27,495 : 9
PPG : PPG INDUSTRIES : 1.6600 : $56,392 : 19
PRAH : PRA HEALTH : 0.0000 : $24,804 : 2
PRGO : PERRIGO : 0.6600 : $97,018 : 19
PSA : PUBLIC STORAGE : 3.9000 : $128,499 : 19
PSEC : PROSPECT CAP : 12.4200 : $21,462 : 11
PSX : PHILLIPS 66 : 2.9700 : $25,573 : 4
PTY : PIMCO CORPOR : 10.9400 : $27,629 : 11
PYPL : PAYPAL : 0.0000 : $10,569 : 1
QCOM : QUALCOMM : 3.1000 : $330,987 : 19
QSR : RESTAURANT BRAND : 1.4200 : $12,534 : 2
RAI : REYNOLDS AMERI : 3.3700 : $410,081 : 18
*RDSA : ROYAL DUTCH SHELL : 7.4100 : $15,005 : 19
REGN : REGENERON : 0.0000 : $211,717 : 19
RH : RESTORATION HARDWARE : 0.0000 : $7,721 : 5
RMD : RESMED : 2.1200 : $643,066 : 19
ROP : ROPER TECH : 0.6500 : $199,471 : 19
ROST : ROSS STORES : 0.7800 : $646,662 : 19
RSG : REPUBLIC SERVIC : 2.3100 : $42,055 : 19
RTN : RAYTHEON : 1.9800 : $66,491 : 16
RY : ROYAL BANK : 3.7200 : $145,614 : 19
SABR : SABRE CORP : 2.0100 : $14,543 : 4
SAM : BOSTON BEER : 0.0000 : $152,976 : 1
*SAN : BANCO SANTA : 3.8000 : $25,759 : 19
SBUX : STARBUCKS : 1.7500 : $322,871 : 19
SCG : SCANA : 3.2400 : $64,170 : 19
SCHW : SCHWAB : 0.7200 : $266,692 : 19
SE : SPECTRA ENERGY : 3.8600 : $21,614 : 10
SEP : SPECTRA ENERGY : 6.1600 : $24,032 : 10
*SFL : SHIP FINANCE : 12.3700 : $29,242 : 13
SHW : SHERWIN WILLIAMS : 1.2500 : $123,392 : 19
SJM : JM SMUCKER : 2.3600 : $98,205 : 17
SKX : SKECHERS : 0.0000 : $57,000 : 18
SLB : SCHLUMBERGER : 2.4500 : $41,159 : 19
SNA : SNAP ON INC : 1.6600 : $72,192 : 19
SO : SOUTHERN CO : 4.7100 : $46,857 : 19
SODA : SODA STREAM : 0.0000 : $11,654 : 6
SPB : SPECTRUM BRANDS : 1.2300 : $56,836 : 10
SPH : SUBURBAN PROPANE : 11.8600 : $74,504 : 19
SPR : SPIRIT AEROSYSTEM : 0.7000 : $18,319 : 11
SQ : SQUARE : 0.0000 : $10,116 : 1
SRCL : STERICYCLE : 0.0000 : $267,339 : 19
SRE : SEMPRA ENERGY : 3.0100 : $69,516 : 19
STZ : CONSTELLATION BRAN : 1.0200 : $615,275 : 9
SUN : SUNOCO LP : 15.5200 : $13,815 : 5
SWK : STANLEY BLACK : 1.9200 : $70,583 : 19
SWKS : SKYWORKS : 1.4100 : $89,001 : 13
SXL : SUNOCO LOGIST : 8.5800 : $168,621 : 15
SYF : SYNCHRONY FINANC : 1.5300 : $10,942 : 3
SYK : STRYKER : 1.3700 : $180,354 : 19
SYY : SYSCO : 2.4400 : $90,787 : 19
T : AT&T : 5.0800 : $33,478 : 19
TAP : MOLSON COORS : 1.6400 : $155,283 : 19
TCEHY : TENCENT : 0.2400 : $201,966 : 9
TCP : TC PIPELINES : 6.9100 : $113,642 : 18
TD : TORONTO DOMINION : 3.4600 : $143,469 : 19
*TEF : TELEFONICA : 10.5600 : $8,355 : 19
TEVA : TEVA PHARMA : 3.0600 : $82,836 : 19
TGT : TARGET CORP : 3.0800 : $104,612 : 19
THO : THOR INDUSTRIES : 1.4900 : $226,604 : 19
*TICC : TICC CAPITAL : 18.3000 : $15,490 : 19
TJX : TJX COMPANIES : 1.3100 : $387,491 : 19
TLP : TRANSMONTAIGNE : 6.5500 : $35,730 : 12
TMO : THERMO FISHER : 0.4200 : $36,562 : 19
TMUS : T-MOBIL : 0.0000 : $25,473 : 3
TOT : TOTAL SA : 5.7700 : $51,600 : 19
TRGP : TARGA RESOURCES : 7.0200 : $21,576 : 7
TSCO : TRACTOR SUPPLY : 1.2900 : $537,178 : 19
TSM : TIAWAN SEMI : 3.2000 :$114,295 : 19
TSN : TYSON FOODS : 1.5300 : $46,199 : 19
TSRA : TESSERA : 1.7700 : $27,218 : 13
TWO : TWO HARBORS : 11.1800 : $21,438 : 8
TWX : TIME WARNER : 1.7400 : $173,438 : 19
TXN : TEXAS INSTRU : 2.6900 : $108,485 : 19
UA : UNDER ARMOUR : 0.0000 : $112,269 : 12
UL : UNILEVER : 3.3600 : $30,266 : 18
ULTA : ULTA SALON : 0.0000 : $66,717 : 10
UNH : UNITED HEALTH : 1.6400 : $272,596 : 19
UNP : UNION PACIFIC : 2.4100 : $84,760 : 19
UVE : UNIVERSAL : 2.2200 : $576,776 : 19
V : VISA : 0.8300 : $54,981 : 19
VFC : VF CORP : 2.8900 : $102,960 : 19
VGR : VECTOR GROUP : 7.4500 : $478,103 : 19
VLO : VALERO ENERGY : 3.6800 : $109,531 : 19
VNTV : VANTIV : 0.0000 : $29,572 : 5
VRSN : VERISIGN : 0.0000 : $125,130 : 19
VTR : VENTAS : 4.8200 : $57,492 : 19
VZ : VERIZON : 4.6700 : $34,081 : 19
WAGE : WAGE WORKS : 0.0000 : $65,824 : 4
WBA : WALGREEN : 1.7900 : $111,721 : 19
WEC : WEC ENERGY : 3.5000 : $86,883 : 19
WES : WESTERN GAS PART : 6.0000 : $50,092 : 9
WFC : WELLS FARGO : 2.9100 : $68,050 : 19
WM : WASTE MANAG : 2.3600 : $30,562 : 19
WMT : WALMART : 2.8500 : $69,818 : 19
WPC : WP CAREY : 6.6700 : $93,342 : 19
WPZ : WILLIAMS PART : 9.0900 : $7,828 : 1
WSO : WATSCO : 2.8600 : $102,665 : 19
WTR : AQUA AMERIC : 2.4800 : $106,028 : 19
XEL : XCEL ENERGY : 3.4600 : $45,184 : 19
XOM : EXXON MOBIL : 3.4600 : $55,031 : 19
YY : YY INC : 0.0000 : $31,073 : 5
ZBH : ZIMMER BIOMET : 0.9500 : $36,587 : 16
++SPY : S&P 500 : 2.1 : $31,405 : 19
++SPY added as a comparison benchmark.
* Indicates stocks that I might sell.
In general there seems to be a correlation between high yield and substandard stock price performance (total return).
If the returns for each stock are added up it totals $63,131,123 for $10K invested in each stock. If only $200 was invested in each stock the $70,600 invested the value would be $1,262,622. This is about a 15.9% annual compounded return.
Have made bundles in rust belt. Have made-- and lost-- bundles in high tech.
Former registered rep, business degree, doing vc and private company investments, while looking for stock picks on a regular basis.
Jeffrey Dow Jones is the managing editor for Alpine Advisor. He has previously worked for PaineWebber/UBS and Ford Motor Credit Company, and he spent the last decade co-managing a group of hedge funds. He holds a degree in Business Economics with a specialization in Computer Programming from The University of California - Los Angeles.
He publishes a free weekly newsletter at AlpineAdvisor.info.
Editor for The Biotech Forum (www.biotechforumsa.com), the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade. For Free weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at www.bretjenseninvests.com
Eugene Eliot Narrett was born on December 27, 1948. He died on the night of December 6, 2013. Having just left an art gallery in Brattleboro, Vermont, where his paintings were on display, he crossed Union Street and was struck by a hit and run driver.
Professor Narrett was the first of five sons born to Dr. Sidney S. Narrett and Mrs. Beatrice Narrett.
Professor Narrett grew up in Passaic and Clifton, New Jersey. In 1963, at the age of fifteen, he won the Quality of Latin Certificate of Merit from the Philadelphia Classical Society. He attended Upper Montclair College High School and matriculated at Columbia University.
Professor Narrett graduated from Columbia in 1970 with a BA in Art History. He received his Masters degree with Honors in English and Comparative Literature in 1975 and his Ph.D in 1978 in these same disciplines all from Columbia University.
Professor Narrett’s dissertation on the Romantic poet, Percy Bysshe Shelley, The Comedic Vision of Shelley's Poetry, was written under the Columbia University scholar and professor, Karl Kroeber, who taught for nearly half a century in the English and comparative literature department. At the time his dissertation was completed, Professor Kroeber labelled Eugene Narrett as the greatest interpreter of Shelley extant.
Professor Narrett had a thirty plus year experience as a College teacher and was a published author in comparative literature, poetry, and art criticism. In 2010, Professor Narrett published in the English-American Association Journal, Identity, Theft, and Image Play in Coleridge. In 2010, Professor Narrett also authored a series of essays on Nietzsche and Schopenhauer and other western authors commenting on the nature of Western culture and how their views make use of or reflect on the relation of Judaism to the West.
In addition, Professor Narrett was an exhibiting artist (1977-92) and had gallery shows in New York City, Boston, Cambridge and Maynard Massachusetts and most recently and fatefully in Brattleboro, Vermont. He was also an accomplished self-taught flute player who once entertained strollers in the parks of Salzburg, Austria.
Professor Narrett taught, designed, created and directed many Liberal Arts courses and programs in fields including Art, Art History, History, Literature and Philosophy. His wide-ranging knowledge of history and his ability to integrate disciplines provided a comprehensive overview and rare insight into the most challenging conflicts and currents of our times. He published extensively on American politics and culture and on geopolitics and the Middle East. He is the author of three books: Gathered against Jerusalem: Essays on a False Peace; Israel Awakened: a Chronicle of the Oslo War; and Israel and the Endtimes: writings on the logic and surface turbulence of History (2006).
For much of his published work and radio guest appearances please see Israelendtimes.com as well as Amazon.com.
On language please see: http://www.webcommentary.com/php/ShowArticle.php?id=narrette&date=060924
As interpreter of Shakespeare please see: http://israelendtimes.com/blog/2010/08/28/thoughts-from-shakespeare.htm
Professor Narrett’s lifetime of scholarship and effort to find the essence in human behavior, as manifested in literature, art, and geo-politics came to a corporeal conclusion on a dark night in December but he always carried and forever will his soul carry the banner of learning and knowledge.
Professor Narrett was survived by his son, Gabriel Narrett and four younger brothers, David, Zachary, Seth and Matthew.
The Parsimony community is made up of thousands of do-it-yourself dividend and income investors working toward one common goal...generating consistent income!
Our strategy is simple:1. Buy great dividend stocks at reasonable prices.2. Enhance income with conservative option strategies.3. Manage risk through diversification and exit strategies.
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I am a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) (currently do not have a private practice). I have also been a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) for 17 years (CFF as well). I am currently employed with a global accounting firm in the Northeast area (partner). I have a masters degree in accounting + legal studies. I have audit, tax, and consulting experience with entities in the following sectors: closed-end funds, energy, financials, healthcare, homebuilders, pharmaceuticals, private equity, REITs, and telecoms. I've also have experience with C-corps., estates, high net worth individuals, LLCs, LLPs, S-corps., and trusts. I am a casual individual investor. My investing fundamentals are based on both qualitative and quantitative information. By using my analytical skills, I create specific investing ideas/strategies. I am more of a longer-term investor as opposed to day-trading.
Previous Quarterly Projection Article’s Performance vs. Actual Results:
# of Projections Stated Within All Articles: 191
# of Projections PENDING: 1
# of Projections 100% Accurate or Within Range: 178
# of Projections Inaccurate or Outside of Range: 13
Projection “Within Range” Success Rate: 178 / 191 = 93.2%
Please see the list at the bottom of this profile for the details of my past projections.
Disclaimer: I cannot own and will not give an opinion on any investments my current employer has any direct or indirect professional services with (accounting, audit, tax, consulting, etc.). This mainly consists of various mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETF's). This includes all stocks held within these particular investment vehicles. This specified list is updated monthly. As such, most large-cap stocks are "off the table" regarding my articles. All accounting insight, analysis, and opinions stated within any articles I write (in regards to a specified stock) are entirely from my own personal research and analysis. I believe my articles are both informative and in some cases educational.
NOTE: A growing number of readers/investors, analysts, and representatives of firms have requested to be provided with my "spreadsheets/models" to help better understand certain companies/sectors. My researched data is several files of 100+ spreadsheets/models containing both stocks I write about on S.A. and stocks I choose to not write about on S.A. To reduce the repeated requests to provide such data, these spreadsheets/models are ALL linked together. As such, all current and future requests to "share" my data/models will be politely declined. Thanks for your understanding regarding this subject.
I appreciate my loyal readers and I’ll continue to try to provide high quality, in-depth articles.
NOTE: Below are the stocks I currently cover as of Jan 2017:
Stocks Covered In Great Detail (10 mREITs; 12 BDCs; 7 Other Sectors): ACAP (Proposed Spin-Off), ACAS, ACSF, AGNC, AINV, ANH, ARCC, ARR, BMNM, CMO, CYS, FSAM, FSC, FSFR, GBDC, GPRO, MAIN, MCC, MO, MTGE, NEWT, NLY, NVS, NYMT, ORC, PSEC, PM, SLRC, TRP, and WMC.
Stocks Covered In Modest Detail (9 mREITs; 2 Other Sectors): AI, AMTG, EFC, IVR, MFA, MITT, NRZ (New), PHM, PMT, SLRC, TOL, TWO
Commonly Asked Questions:
Question 1): If you are only paid per article, why make your articles so long / detailed?
- I like to provide the “nuts and bolts” of a company. As such, I strive for my articles to have some sort of “hard to obtain” facts / figures. From this data, I like to fully discuss / analyze specific topics within a particular stock. This mainly consists of a quarterly projection article and a series of articles on a company’s dividend sustainability. In certain instances, I also write articles in regards to specific, material events that occur during a quarter.
- I believe a company’s quarterly results and upcoming dividend declarations are two of the most important topics readers are requesting information on. My analysis takes the “average” article several steps further to allow readers to have access to information that is rare to public viewership. In doing so, I believe my articles are both beneficial and educational for most readers.
Question 2): How come you only write 1-2 articles a week (would like to see more)?
- As stated in my profile above, I have a full-time professional career. I write / analyze stocks in my free time. To provide these types of high quality / in-depth articles, I can’t see writing more than 2 articles a week. I believe “quality” should always be a higher priority versus “quantity”.
- As many readers should know by now (if you’ve followed me for a while), I not here for the monetary rewards. If that was the case, I’d write 5+ weekly articles and provide little to no engagement in each article’s comment section. I believe the comments section is as important as the article themselves b/c readers have a wide range of questions in relation to each article or the sector in general.
Question 3): What do you personally gain from writing these articles?
- I am not here trying to promote a company, book, or website. There’s nothing wrong with that. That’s just not what I’m about. I’m here for the “average Joe”.
- When I decided to write these articles, I based it on the notion I am filling a “special niche” per se. Using skills that have been built up over my professional career, my articles usually provide unique information that most writers either a) don’t have the technical expertise to provide or b) don’t bother providing due to the time it takes to compile such data. As such, I believe the S.A. community benefits from my articles. I solely do this b/c it’s a passion of mine and I like helping readers have accurate, reliable data that is not readily available. Yes, I understand this may seem “hard to believe” in this day and age. I believe some of my more “seasoned” followers know this aspect of my generosity / personality.
Question 4): How come you do not write about more stocks?
- To give readers the level of detail that I provide in my articles, I amass large amounts of data every quarter (or even weekly). As a direct result, a large amount of time is consumed by obtaining / analyzing this data.
- If I expanded the stocks I research, it would most likely take away the quality of other articles I currently am writing about. Again, this gets back to the “quality vs. quantity” metric.
- There is a fairly large range of stocks / investment vehicles I cannot write about / provide an opinion on due to various conflicts of interests (regarding my professional career). This is a topic I take VERY seriously. As such, I take all necessary precautions to avoid any remote possibility of a conflict of interest occurring.
Detailed Past Projection List:
NAV as of 3/31/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.67 projected vs. $10.68 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2014: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($10.56 projected vs. $10.56 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.48 projected vs. $10.47 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.34 projected vs. $10.35 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2015: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($10.27 projected vs. $10.30 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2015: $0.06 per share variance; within range ($10.25 projected vs. $10.31 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2015: $0.17 per share variance; within range but at the higher end ($10.00 projected vs. $10.17 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2015: $0.25 per share variance; slightly outside range; lower end ($9.90 projected vs. $9.65 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2016: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($9.50 projected vs. $9.61 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2016: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($9.73 projected vs. $9.62 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2016: $0.05 per share variance; within range ($9.65 projected vs. $9.60 actual)
Fiscal Q3 2016 NII: $0.00 per share variance; within range ($0.25 projected vs. $0.25 actual)
Fiscal Q4 2016 NII: $0.005 per share variance; within range ($0.251 projected vs. $0.256 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q4 2014: Stated dividend was currently safe (no specific dividend declarations) which turned out to be correct for April 2014 – June 2014 dividends declared
Dividends for Fiscal Q1 2015: 100% accuracy (July. 2014 $0.110475 projected vs. $0.110475 actual) (Aug. 2014 $0.110500 projected vs. $0.110500 actual) (Sept. 2014 $0.110525 projected vs. $0.110525 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q2 2015: 100% accuracy (Oct. 2014 $0.110550 projected vs. $0.110550 actual) (Nov. 2014 $0.110575 projected vs. $0.110575 actual) (Dec. 2014 $0.110600 projected vs. $0.110600 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q3 2015^: (Jan. 2015 $0.110625 projected vs. $0.110625 actual) (Feb. 2015 $0.110650 projected vs. $0.0833 actual OUTSIDE RANGE) (Mar. 2015 $0.110675 projected vs. $0.0833 actual OUTSIDE RANGE)
^ = Correctly stated dividend would be cut. However, PSEC reduced dividends beginning in February 2015 and I projected the dividend decrease would occur in April 2015 (2 months earlier than projected)
Dividends for Fiscal Q4 2015: (April. 2015 was declared in December 2014 prior to my analysis for this quarter) 100% accuracy (May 2015 - June 2015 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q1 2016: 100% accuracy (July 2015 - September 2015 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q2 2016: 100% accuracy (October 2015 - December 2015 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q3 2016: 100% accuracy (January 2016 - March 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q4 2016: 100% accuracy (April 2016 - June 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q1 2017: 100% accuracy (July 2016 - September 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q2 2017: 100% accuracy (October 2016 - December 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q3 2017: 100% accuracy (January 2017 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2013: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($25.40 projected vs. $25.51 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2013: $1.36 per share variance; MATERIALLY OUTSIDE RANGE ($26.63 projected vs. $25.27 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2013: $0.58 per share variance; within range lower end ($24.51 projected vs. $23.93 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2014: $0.04 per share variance; within range ($24.45 projected vs. $24.49 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2014: $0.66 per share variance; within range higher end ($25.60 projected vs. $26.26 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2014: $0.35 per share variance; within range ($25.19 projected vs. $25.54 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2014: $0.29 per share variance; within range ($25.45 projected vs. $25.74 actual)
Comprehensive Income for Q1 2015: $0.02 per share variance; within range ($0.48 per share projected vs. $0.46 per share actual)
BV as of 3/31/2015: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($25.64 projected vs. $25.53 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2015: $0.24 per share variance; within range ($24.24 projected vs. $24.00 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015: $0.44 per share variance; within range lower end ($23.44 projected vs. $23.00 actual)
BV as of 10/31/2015: $0.06 per share variance; within my monthly $0.30 per share range ($22.98 projected vs. $23.04 actual)
BV as of 11/30/2015: $0.27 per share variance; within my monthly $0.30 per share range ($22.25 projected vs. $22.52 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2015: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($22.60 projected vs. $22.59 actual)
BV as of 1/31/2016: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($22.39 projected vs. $22.40 actual)
BV as of 2/29/2016: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($22.82 projected vs. $22.73 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2016: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($22.25 projected vs. $22.09 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016: $0.12 per share variance; within range ($22.10 projected vs. $22.22 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2016: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($23.00 projected vs. $22.91 actual)
BV as of 10/31/2016: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($23.60 projected vs. $22.63 actual)
BV as of 11/30/2016: $0.08 per share variance; within range ($20.89 projected vs. $20.97 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2013: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($1.25 projected vs. $1.25 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2013: Correctly stated dividend cut would occur; $0.15 per share variance; within range higher end ($0.90 projected vs. $1.05 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2013: Correctly stated another dividend cut would occur; $0.10 per share variance; within range ($0.90 projected vs. $0.80 actual)
Dividend for Q4 2013: Correctly stated another dividend cut would occur; $0.05 per share variance; within range ($0.60 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2014: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2014: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2014: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for November 2014 - April 2015: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.22 projected vs. $0.22 actual)
Dividend for May 2015: Company declared dividend several weeks ahead of schedule; prior to my quarterly dividend sustainability analysis. As such, no dividend projection was provided for May 2015:
Dividend for June 2015 - August 2015: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.20 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend for September 2015*: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would modestly reduced; ($0.18 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend for October and November 2015: Not provided but stated increased risk to reduction by end of 2015 / early 2016.
Dividend for December 2015**: Stated dividend would be stable; highest probability ($0.20 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend Declaration for January 2016: Not provided due to time constraints.
Dividend for February 2016 - July 2016: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.20 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend for August 2016 - AGNC declared a ($0.02) per share decrease prior to my quarterly dividend sustainability analysis. However, in my prior quarter's analysis, I stated I thought AGNC's monthly dividend should be stable over the near-term (3-6 months). As such, I conclude this in an INCORRECT forward projection.
Dividend for September - December 2016: Correctly stated high probability dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.18 projected vs. $0.18 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2013***: $0.40 per share variance; within range lower end ($21.87 projected vs. $21.47 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2014***: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($21.94 projected vs. $21.78 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2014***: $0.13 per share variance; within range ($22.60 projected vs. $22.73 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2014***: $0.29 per share variance; within range ($21.95 projected vs. $22.24 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2014***: $0.19 per share variance; within range ($22.10 projected vs. $21.91 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2015***: $0.20 per share variance; within range ($21.80 projected vs. $22.00 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2015***: $0.30 per share variance; within range ($22.00 projected vs. $21.70 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015***: $0.17 per share variance; within range ($20.10 projected vs. $19.93 actual); excluding "one-time" ($0.20) per share impairment charge related to RCS; $0.03 per share variance ($20.10 projected vs. $20.13 actual; excluding impairment charge).
BV as of 12/31/2015***: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($19.50 projected vs. $19.66 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2016***: $0.22 per share variance; within range ($19.25 projected vs. $19.03 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016***: $0.28 per share variance; within range towards higher end ($19.15 projected vs. $19.47 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2016***: $0.45 per share variance; within range but right at highest range ($20.10 projected vs. $20.55 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2013***: Correctly stated dividend would be modestly cut; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.70 projected vs. $0.70 actual)
Dividend for Q4 2013***: Correctly stated dividend would be slightly cut; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2014***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2014 - Q4 2014***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2015***: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would be stable; ($0.15) per share variance; ($0.65 projected vs. $0.50 actual) In my opinion, the severity of this cut was very disappointing.
Dividend for Q2 2015***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.50 projected vs. $0.50 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2015***: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would be stable; ($0.10) per share variance; ($0.50 projected vs. $0.40 actual) In my opinion, the severity of this cut was very disappointing once again.
Dividend for Q4 2015 - Q4 2016***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.40 projected vs. $0.40 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2014***: $0.10 per share variance; within range ($12.40 projected vs. $12.30 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2014***: $0.43 per share variance; SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE RANGE higher end ($12.80 projected vs. $13.23 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2014***: $0.07 per share variance; within range ($12.95 projected vs. $12.88 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2014***: $0.15 per share variance; within range ($12.95 projected vs. $13.10 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2015***: $0.32 per share variance; SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE RANGE; lower end ($13.20 projected vs. $12.88 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2015***: $0.17 per share variance; within range ($12.15 projected vs. $12.32 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015***: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($12.15 projected vs. $11.99 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2015***: $0.13 per share variance; within range ($12.60 projected vs. $12.73 actual) (most of the variance was in relation to the accretive effect of Q4 2015 share repurchases)
BV as of 3/31/2016***: $0.04 per share variance; within range ($11.65 projected vs. $11.61 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016***: $0.35 per share variance; within range towards lower end ($11.85 projected vs. $11.50 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2016***: $0.07 per share variance; within range ($11.90 projected vs. $11.83 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2014 - Q1 2015***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.30 projected vs. $0.30 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2015***: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would be reduced; $0.05 per share variance; ($0.25 projected vs. $0.30 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2015 - Q4 2016***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.30 projected vs. $0.30 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2013: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($9.87 projected vs. $9.90 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2013: $0.04 per share variance; within range ($9.94 projected vs. $9.90 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2013: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($9.86 projected vs. $9.85 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2013: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($9.85 projected vs. $9.85 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2014: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($9.81 projected vs. $9.81 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2014: $0.06 per share variance; within range lower end ($9.77 projected vs. $9.71 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($9.65 projected vs. $9.64 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2014: $0.37 per share variance; MATERIALLY OUTSIDE RANGE ($9.54 projected vs. $9.17 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2015: $0.21 per share variance; OUTSIDE RANGE ($8.97 projected vs. $9.18 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2015: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($9.13 projected vs. $9.13 actual) (projections + article were provided to certain interested parties outside S.A.)
NAV as of 9/30/2015: $0.05 per share variance; within range ($8.95 projected vs. $9.00 actual) (projections + analysis were provided to certain interested parties; did not have enough time to provide an article)
FSC’s Dividend Sustainability Analysis Through Fiscal Q3 2013: Stated moderate to material dividend cut is needed; 100% accurate because company cut dividend beginning in December 2013
Dividend for Fiscal Q3 2015****: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (April 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (May 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (June 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual)
Dividend for September 2015 - February 2016****: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (September 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (October 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (November 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (December 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (January 2016 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (February 2016 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual)
Dividend for September 2016 - November 2016 Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.06 per share projected vs. $0.06 per share actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2013: $0.12 per share variance; within range lower end (wider range b/c first full quarter of operations) ($15.22 projected vs. $15.10 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2014: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($15.13 projected vs. $15.10 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($15.14 projected vs. $15.13 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2014: $0.02 per share variance; within range ($12.63 projected vs. $12.65 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2014: $0.10 per share variance; within range (at lowest end) ($12.635 projected vs. $12.534 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2015: $0.08 per share variance; within range ($12.38 projected vs. $12.46 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2015: $0.15 per share variance; within range (at lowest end) ($12.38 projected vs. $12.23 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2015: $0.18 per share variance; within range (at higher end) ($11.93 projected vs. $12.11 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2015: Not provided to readers due to the fact the company "pre-announced" NAV prior to my quarterly projection analysis (due to a material reduction)
NAV as of 3/31/2016: $0.17 per share variance; within range (at higher end) ($11.01 projected vs. $11.18 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2016: $0.31 per share variance; MODESTLY OUTSIDE range ($11.30 projected vs. $10.99 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2016: $0.02 per share variance; within range ($11.08 projected vs. $11.06 actual)
Dividend Declaration for December 2015 - February 2016: Correctly stated very low probability (10%) for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (December 2015 $0.075 projected vs. $0.075 actual) (January 2016 $0.075 projected vs. $0.075 actual) (February 2016 $0.075 projected vs. $0.075 actual)
Dividend Sustainability Analysis Through Q4 2013: Stated material dividend cut was needed as soon as the next quarter; 100% accurate because company cut dividend in Q1 2014 from $0.80 per share (regular dividend portion) to $0.67 per share.
Dividend for Q4 2014*****: Stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.70 projected vs. $0.70 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2015***: Stated dividend would be "relatively" stable; accurate because company only cut its dividend by ($0.03) per share which, when calculated, was only a "minor" (< 5%) reduction
Dividend for Q2 2015***: Stated heightened risk for another minor - modest dividend reduction; accurate because company cut its dividend by ($0.03) per share which, when calculated, was another "minor" (< 5%) reduction
Dividend for Q3 2015: Correctly stated dividend would be modestly cut; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.60 projected vs. $0.60 actual
Dividend for Q3 2015*****: Stated dividend had a modest to high probability (50% - 75%) of being reduced; 100% accurate because company reduced monthly dividends from $0.18 per share to $0.14 per share beginning in July 2015.
Dividend for August 2015 - October 2016: Correctly stated each month dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.14 projected vs. $0.14 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015: $0.06 per share variance; within range ($11.63 projected vs. $11.69 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2015: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($11.74 projected vs. $11.65 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2016: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($11.10 projected vs. $11.01 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.86 projected vs. $10.85 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2016: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($11.24 projected vs. $11.21 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2016: $0.08 per share variance; within range ($10.17 projected vs. $10.09 actual)
Dividend Declaration for Calendar Q2 2015****: Correctly stated low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (April 2015 $0.175 projected vs. $0.175 actual) (May 2015 $0.175 projected vs. $0.175 actual) (June 2015 $0.175 projected vs. $0.175 actual).
Dividend Declaration for September - November 2015: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (September 2015 $0.175 - $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (October 2015 $0.175 - $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (November 2015 $0.175 - $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Special Periodic Dividend Declaration for 2015: Correctly stated high probability of a special periodic dividend paid in December 2015; exactly at my projected mean: ($0.25 - $0.30 projected vs. $0.275 actual).
Dividend Declaration for December 2015 - February 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (December 2015 $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (January 2016 $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (February 2016 $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Dividend Declaration for March 2016 - May 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (March 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (April 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (May 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Dividend Declaration for June 2016 - August 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (June 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (July 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (August 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Special Periodic Dividend Declaration for First-Half 2016: Correctly stated high probability of a special periodic dividend paid in June 2016; exactly at my projected mean: ($0.25 - $0.30 projected vs. $0.275 actual).
Dividend Declaration for September 2016 - November 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (Sept. 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.185 actual) (October 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.185 actual) (November 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.185 actual).
Q4 2015 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.67 projected vs. $0.67 per share actual)
Q1 2016 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.02 per share variance; within range lower end of $0.04 per share range ($0.70 projected vs. $0.72 per share actual)
Q2 2016 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($0.80 projected vs. $0.81 per share actual)
Q3 2016 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($0.81 projected vs. $0.82 per share actual)
* = Stated there was a 60% probability dividend would be reduced to $0.18 per share; a 30% probability dividend would remain stable at $0.20 per share
** = Stated there was a 45% probability dividend would be reduced to $0.16 - $0.19 per share
*** = Provided within an AGNC article
**** = Provided within a PSEC article
***** = Provided within a NLY article
Bob is retired from a career in law enforcement including more than 20 years as an instructor of Investigative Interviewing. He is a Dividend Growth investor using dividend yield from low beta stocks for income and preservation of capital. Bob has self managed his portfolio since early in 2011. He hopes to encourage discussion among those already in retirement and receiving income from their portfolios.
My curent portfolio is available here:
I believe that everyone needs a portfolio business plan.
Here's a copy of ours:: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2426965-our-retirement-portfolio-business-plan-legacy-edition-part-two
A list of Dividend Growth Safety Superstars for the past decade is available here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2255863-a-review-of-the-dividend-safety-superstars
Eric Parnell, CFA, is the Founder and Director of Gerring Capital Partners. Gerring Capital is a registered investment advisory firm seeking attractive returns opportunities emphasizing value, quality and risk control. Eric also publishes The Universal premium service on Seeking Alpha targeting winning strategies in bear and bull markets across the asset class universe. Gerring Capital implements these strategies for its investors and then Eric discusses them on The Universal. Eric is also a Visiting Instructor at Ursinus College in the Department of Business and Economics. Prior to founding Gerring in 2005, Eric was the Director of Investment Communications at SEI Investments and an Economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.
Dave Fish is Executive Editor for The Moneypaper and co-manager (since 1999) of the MP 63 Fund (Symbol: DRIPX), a fund that invests exclusively in companies that offer Direct Investment (or Dividend Reinvestment) Plans. He is also the author of the U.S. Dividend Champions spreadsheet (and PDF), which is updated at the end of each month...and lists companies that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years. (Separate tabs list "Contenders" that have increased their payouts for 10-24 years and "Challengers" that have increased their payouts for 5-9 years.) http://dripinvesting.org/Tools/Tools.asp
Alan Brochstein, CFA, was the first investment professional to devote himself to sharing his observations about the cannabis industry from an investor's perspective publicly. He runs 420 Investor, a subscription-based due diligence platform for investors interested in the publicly-traded cannabis stocks and is also the founder of New Cannabis Ventures, a content aggregation site focused on investors and entrepreneurs in the cannabis industry.
Alan has worked in the securities industry since 1986, primarily with the responsibility for managing investments in institutional environments until he founded AB Analytical Services in 2007 in order to provide independent research and consulting to registered investment advisors. In addition to advising several different hedge funds and investment managers, including Friedberg Investment Management, where he participated as a member of its investment management committee, Alan was also a senior analyst for the independent research firm Management CV. In 2008, he began providing a first-of-its-kind subscription-based service for individual investors, Invest By Model, which offered two different portfolios that investors could replicate in their own accounts for $20 per month. Alan also offered The Analytical Trader at Marketfy, where he used fundamental and technical analysis in a disciplined process to offer specific trade ideas geared towards swing traders.
Alan launched www.420Investor.com in late 2013 as the premier source of information for "Green Rush" investors seeking to capitalize on the proliferation of legalized medical and recreational cannabis. In March 2014, Alan, who is a member of the National Cannabis Industry Association, began to focus solely on the cannabis sector. He launched www.NewCannabisVentures.com in late 2015.
You can follow Alan on Facebook (www.facebook.com/420investor) or on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Invest420). Alan also moderates a large LinkedIn group focused on the cannabis industry, Cannabis Investors & Entrepreneurs (https://www.linkedin.com/groups/6523904)
I am an active husband, father, lawyer (more than 24 years, how time flies), and investor. I believe in contrarian investing, i.e., going where the crowd isn't. I believe that successful investing, like successful living, requires equal parts listening and evaluating, followed by independent decision making.
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I graudated summa cum laude with a M.S (Accounting & Information Analysis) and a B.S. (Finance & Accounting). I have over four years of financial markets experience. I actively follow equities with a focus on technology, high yield, and value stocks. In addition, I focus on conservative option strategies such as covered calls and cash secured puts to generate additional income in an effort to outperform the market.
If you are interested in any of my digital utility solutions to add to your investing tool box to improve your investment outcomes, please visit my site
You'll find elegant applications that make it simple for you to track your portfolio in real time, make a watch list to follow in real time, track your dividend income and growth, and other applications. These applications will allow you to set alerts at prices you choose in order to obtain the yield and income that you want. They function as real time trade assistants and will improve your investment performance. You can even mirror the successful FTG Portfolio with "My FTG Mirror Calculator", and subscribers can mirror the premium subscriber portfolio with "MY RODAT Mirror Calculator" if they wish to emulate the out performance we've achieved in capital and income growth.
I am a retired clinical psychologist, and administrator and owner of a rehabilitation clinic we founded 40 years ago. For over 55 years I have managed several portfolios composed of investments accumulated over our professional careers. Since the financial crisis of 2008, I have employed specialized, customized dividend growth strategies aimed at enhancing and growing a dividend income stream.
Since December 24, 2014, I have demonstrated on Seeking Alpha the ongoing construction and portfolio management of the Fill-The-Gap Portfolio aimed at highlighting strategies investors may utilize to close the gap between an average Social Security benefit and the much greater costs faced in retirement.
This portfolio has outperformed all of the broad market indexes by a very wide margin, growing dividend income and total portfolio value consistently while the broader indexes struggle in negative territory all year.
Aside from free articles available to the general public, additional early-access, value-added ideas and deep-dive articles are offered to paid subscribers on my premium SA platform, "Retirement: One Dividend At A Time"
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I have retired from a 35 years career in the semiconductor industry. I now have the time to do the deep research necessary for successful investing.
I freely provide investment information for friends and family.
I am a member of MENSA, which means precisely nothing except I wake up in the middle of the night doing pointless math problems in my head:)
Ashraf Eassa is a technology specialist with The Motley Fool. He writes mostly about technology stocks, but is especially interested in anything related to chips -- the semiconductor kind, that is.
I spend most of my time reading through annual reports looking for a small-cap stock to feature in my monthly edition of "The Conservative Investor Digest." That is where you can find my best work, and that is where I focus my research. You can become a subscriber here: https://gumroad.com/l/HmqJx
I run the long-term investing website "The Conservative Income Investor" which can be found at: www.theconservativeincomeinvestor.com
My goal is to bring exposure to business development companies (BDCs) that finance small to medium sized businesses, typically overlooked by banks. BDCs are an instrument for investors to earn healthy dividends by avoiding double taxation at the corporate level and allowing income to flow directly to each shareholder. Please see website link below for more information. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Website: www.bdcbuzz.com Newsletter: www.bdcbuzz.com/contact-us.html
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Fredrik Arnold is my pen name. In 2012 I retired from doing quality service analysis for John Hancock Long Term Care Insurance in Boston then moved to North Carolina in 2013. My fascination with capital preservation, fixed fractional trading, and trading systems keeps me blogging for Seeking Alpha. Most of my articles focus on dividend yields and analyst mean 1 yr targets as stock trading indicators. These are essential tools for catching the most valuable dividend dogs.