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Larry A

Larry A
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  • Linn's New Capital Plan: Don't Overlook The Positives [View article]
    An oil company value is tied to the value of oil, right now the book value is higher than the market price, based on prior recoverable oil valuations. What is the value of LINE today at current oil value. LINE is toxic at any price, just throw your money down a black hole. After a distribution cut of 57% and capex cut of 53% they estimate div coverage of 1.18 X. And that is with still playing out the much ballyhooed hedging. Investing in LINE has become the single largest failure in my life.
    Jan 8, 2015. 04:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Natural Gas Export Era Begins In 2015, Fueling Upside In Prices [View article]
    It is hard to think of a worse idea than selling your energy supplies on the world market, be it nat gas or condensate. There is a 100% chance of price increases for American consumers and business. One pillar of financial success is having a relative advantage over competitors. If we have cheap energy and feed stocks for business, we compete very well internationally with our manufactured products. More jobs are created and the multiplier effect of earnings and spending lifts the economy. The short sighted and greedy plan may pay some people now, but cost all of us later.
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs And The Conspiracy Of Silence [View article]
    Read your blog, thanks for the extra effort. I take no exception to your position that analyst echo and do not analyze. My statement above is about them being held to a standard of reliability for what they publish. In my 40 years of business I never signed my name to anything I did not fully agree with. (this did not make me a favorite with mgt.) If you are an analyst and do the job, it is your opinion and no more. If you are an echo, change your job title to Parrot.
    Jun 24, 2014. 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs And The Conspiracy Of Silence [View article]
    Now I am worried about you, have you been out of the house lately. I was overwhelmed by your 'abridged' summary article, very well done. I agree on most of this except for the analysts, "They should not be judged for the accuracy of their answers..." They must be judged by their estimates, or what use are they. I rarely pay attention to analyst estimates and never buy because of one. Their recommendations are of three measures: wrong, too late or lucky.
    Jun 22, 2014. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: There Is No Need To Worry [View article]
    I concur with many of the above, did you attach the wrong headline to this story. Also the comment about the KMP price being depressed because.. "However, this is mostly a result of a shift away from the safety of income stocks." just does not track. Current yield is 7%. By inference you mean KMP is an income stock and there was safety in owning it. I have owned it for years and do not consider it completely safe. Not sure exactly what you mean, and where did those people move their money?
    Jun 20, 2014. 04:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners, L.P.: A Match For Contrarians; A Trap For Income-Oriented Investors [View article]
    My mistake, purchased in April 2011 at $34.25. I understand your point on any returns, but I take a little different view. Returns are cash used to live on. When I sell, if I recover all the first investment, that is great. If I lost some, it is a capital loss, regardless of any dividends/returns and "I can't like it". All funds in an IRA, not tracking taxes.
    Jun 18, 2014. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners, L.P.: A Match For Contrarians; A Trap For Income-Oriented Investors [View article]
    After reading your article, I was completely convinced to take my 55% loss now and sell, so I did. Got out at $15.28, right now price of $14.58. Hope someone is happy with my shares. Perhaps you may be right in the very long term, but I will try my chance with a better horse.
    Jun 18, 2014. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Sold Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    Usually I agree with you, not this time.
    Jun 18, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners, L.P.: A Match For Contrarians; A Trap For Income-Oriented Investors [View article]
    Good to have your views on NRP. Bought Feb. 2012 at $34 plus change, now have a 55% loss. At the time such writers as yourself extolled the virtues and promise of investing in such a company. I suspected the EPA would always be a nuisance, but export should make up any loss here. Hasn't worked out that way. Writers, analyst and Larry were wrong to buy this company. You could be right on the contrarian buyer, but why bother? There are much better opportunities out there. Too much risk.
    Jun 15, 2014. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Innovative Approach To Fossil Fuel-Free Investing [View article]
    I like fossil fuels. Yes it could be paradise if we had blue skies, butterflies and limitless pollution free energy, but that is not going to happen, ever. If you take something away from a mixture and then add it back, you gained nothing and lost nothing. Carbon from the atmosphere when all the fossil fuels were formed is then released by the burning later. The earth returns to its original state. Perhaps you do not like it, but it is the natural order of chemistry.
    Jun 10, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Recent Billionaire Insider Transactions Make It A Strong Buy [View article]
    Interesting for sure, but it is only one point for considering what I should buy. The tag along strategy has not always paid off for me. Billionaires have deeper pockets and perhaps other motives. I'm looking for dividends/distributions. Thanks for the work.
    Jun 6, 2014. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Jury's Anti-Fracking Verdict Could Create Problems For Oil And Gas Producers [View article]
    Important to note the cause of the problem is what happened above ground, not under ground. In Denton County, TX there is a current push to ban all fracking in the city. Not settled yet, but may go to voters in November. If the process is done correctly and with due diligence, it can be safe. A bigger issue may be the small earthquakes caused by fluid injection (yes they cause it).
    Jun 4, 2014. 10:44 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Linn Energy's Swap Secures The Distribution [View article]
    Casey, as always I appreciate your articles. The simple principle of a company taking actions today to fix short term problems always worries me. The trade was to help cover current and near term distributions. It looks like a forced decision, not something management does to build the company. That said, they appear fiscally weak and just treading water.
    Jun 1, 2014. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Get Ready For Another Hedgeye Short Attack [View article]
    Thanks for a lesson, but I beg to differ. When the financial crisis started I lost 100% of my investment in a solid, profitable, well managed company. Their debt was manageable, investments were sound and they had a very healthy DCF to pay dividends, and had done so for years. What a company is worth and what I think of it comes in second place. What really matters is what everyone else thinks it may be worth. If enough people think it is junk, it will be a self fulfilling prophecy. The company was Thornberg Mortgage. On August 7, 2007, Deutsche Bank downgraded them because of the subprime fear in the news. Thornberg had no subprime and virtually no mortgage delinquency. Creditors wanted their money back regardless. Thornberg had to sell mortgages they held to get cash, but no one would buy, without a drastic discount. Down spiral, and bankruptcy. Do not tell me the same thing cannot happen again. With enough bad ink, and minds change, Linn can't borrow money, can't sell shares and starts selling assets. Sharks attack. Soon you and I have lost our money.
    May 16, 2014. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Get Ready For Another Hedgeye Short Attack [View article]
    The Hedgeye statement looks to be a statement of fact, not just an opinion. Without some mealy mouth disclaimer of facts being only conjecture, Linn should have a good case for damages by libel and slander. I suspect some Hedgeye friends, relatives or clandestine associates have some short positions, there is just too much time spent on LINE/LNCO to not be making some fast cash. Even if we are on a good ship, it will go under with enough torpedoes. Still holding both stocks.
    May 15, 2014. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment