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I Did it My Way

I Did it My Way
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  • The Monetization Of WhatsApp Will Catalyze Facebook's Stock [View article]

    Given your analysis and opinion on FB and the current valuation of the company I'd be interested to know where you stand on TSLA. I am long FB and feel as though they will be able to profit from their current product while adding revenue from their pipeline as was mentioned in the article. Anything is possible, however, and they may fail but with a user base that is approaching 1.5 Billion they have some good ingredients to be successful.
    May 26, 2015. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MORL Correlations And Strategies [View article]
    James, I found your article helpful and it really got me thinking about the need to have a plan to hedge MORL if/when I feel it is necessary. I must also mention a possible error in your correlation data.

    "All correlations are for the period 1 January, 2013, through 15 April, 2015, a period which encompasses the May 2013 "taper tantrum"..." In the Consumer Discretionary category there is a comparison to LOCO which is a fairly recent IPO from the latter part of 2014.

    Regardless, I found the article worthwhile, thank you.
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Stock Forecast For 2015 Based On A Predictive Algorithm [View article]
    When you say, "bounces around a while" what time horizon are you referring to? I am currently long F shares and have experienced the up and down swings but picking tops and bottoms is always easier in hindsight. Are you suggesting that the shares will pause and bounce for a week, two weeks, four weeks, etc?
    Jan 25, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash In Oil Prices Raises Questions And Opportunities For A Lifetime [View article]
    Benni, that is very interesting. Would you mind sharing where you heard this? Most of the data I have come across has implied that fracking generally costs twice that (or more) but I'm sure there are exceptions.
    Jan 7, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy This 3x Leveraged Gold Mining ETF [View article]
    You're funny. Maybe you could enlighten us with your knowledge?
    May 22, 2014. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy This 3x Leveraged Gold Mining ETF [View article]
    Gold appears to have formed a flag pattern and I believe it will probably make a meaningful move one way or the other in the next 60 days My bias is to the downside for several reasons, one of which was mentioned by the author, inflation (or lack thereof). Gold was hyped up to the level it is at today, and beyond, and while it has pulled back somewhat it still needs to come back down further. If I were to make a trade it would either be bearish or a July option strangle. Good luck everyone.
    May 21, 2014. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Q2 Earnings Will Be A Massive Disappointment [View article]
    They really should include the extra tire expense into their advertised lease rates if it is a known issue.
    May 9, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Stripped Of Its 'Momentum Stock' Status? [View article]
    "the i3 has a 22kWh battery (and optional lawnmower range extender)"

    I'm not sure how that statement is relevant to Tesla or my post but the notion that BMW would equip the i3 with a lawn mower engine simply can't be true.

    "the brochure says 190 miles on "a charge" which is a phenominal 8.7 miles per kWh (it omits that actually, thats with the optional range extender gas engine)"

    I have visited BMW's website and the section devoted to the i3 appeared to display two distinct versions, one model with the range extending combustion engine and another model without. The advertised range, of course, is much greater for the range extended version and I did see where they state "...185 miles per charge. Fully charged in 3.5 hrs." I completely agree with you that this is terribly misleading and should be changed. It casts a shadow of doubt over other aspects of their marketing and they may find that potential customers do not trust their advertised claims. I certainly fall into that category now.

    After viewing BMW's website I thought it would be fair to visit Tesla's website as well to see how their disclosure compares. The first thing I noticed on their home page (because it was in the largest font size) was "Model S Business Leasing $408/mo. Including Gasoline and Tax Savings." Sounds good so I click the Learn More button. Next page shows $678/mo. Effective Monthly Cost but there's another tab for lease pricing so I click on that. Bingo, $408/mo. Unfortunately there is some small print beneath that price referring to the *Assumptions* for gas and tax savings. Once I got to the real fine print I learned that the monthly payment is actually $1012/mo. and there's a $5000 down payment and another $1000 in acquisition and disposal fees. So is it possible to end up with a net payment of $408 per month? Technically, yes, if you match the various assumptions provided by Tesla. I understand what they're trying to accomplish but to do it right they should give the buyer an opportunity to customize the assumptions right on the screen in order to get a true comparison that will promote an educated buying decision. Considering Musk's claims that their production can't keep up with demand they could probably sell the same number of vehicles without resorting to these sales tactics.
    May 5, 2014. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Stripped Of Its 'Momentum Stock' Status? [View article]
    Yes, rather than consuming fuel the Tesla is powered by batteries that are charged with electricity. Thank you for clarifying that if I wasn't clear in my original post.
    May 4, 2014. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Stripped Of Its 'Momentum Stock' Status? [View article]
    As I said, the Model S does not come with cup holders. The $150 optional cup knock over strap is neither standard nor is it a smart choice for those who don't like to have spilled coffee on the floor and back of their legs (for those who don't know, the Model S' optional "cup holder" is installed near the floor by your ankles). And $150, really? I wonder of that includes installation as well.
    May 2, 2014. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Guidance Doesn't Justify Stock Price [View article]
    Can you please explain your criteria or rules for defining a company as a momentum stock? Like many readers I have heard the phrase on television but I don't know how to tell if a company is classified as a momentum stock or not. LinkedIn, for example, has been in a textbook downward channel for over 6 months and has been creating new 52 week lows of late. Facebook, on the other hand, is 100+% above its 52 week low and only 15% off its high. Their charts and overall performance is so different that I don't see the momentum correlation. Thanks.
    May 2, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Stripped Of Its 'Momentum Stock' Status? [View article]
    I think it is easy to want to believe in the Tesla story. I'm sure many people would love to have a car that requires no fuel. Unfortunately, the facts demonstrate that Tesla is not a new company and their product is not without its share of ongoing problems (google "tesla problem" and you'll see). Even if Tesla could sell their vehicles nationwide without regulatory barriers it doesn't mean everyone would want one or could afford one. Even if the Model S approaches the same total cost of ownership as the average new sedan due to fuel expense and depreciation it doesn't mean the average buyer can afford to make a purchase decision on that basis since they can't finance 5 years worth of gasoline.

    Lastly, the barriers to entry that used to exist are crumbling. Who's to say another high quality car maker that is already dabbling in EVs won't come up with a solid product that can be sold through their existing dealerships and charged there as well? Competition would be a good thing and maybe, just maybe, I will own an EV in the near future but one of my requirements is standard cup holders for back seat passengers so the Model S is out for now.
    May 1, 2014. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Consumer 3-D Printing Gets A Boost [View article]
    I agree with the article in the sense that 3D printing is not fully understood by the average consumer and the potential is enormous. At the same time, the information presented in your article (the Finviz data) shows a P/E of 109 and a stock price that is up 38% over the past year. Any company that is valued for their "potential" is bound to have volatility as it proves itself and establishes its position relative to the competition. I do not have a position in any 3D printing company at this but it is likely that I will before the fourth quarter if consumer demand appears to be strong.
    Apr 16, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 1 [View article]
    Nice work, Scott. I have had AGNC on my radar and truly appreciate the detailed, objective analysis you have performed and provided to the public. Now I need to read up on some of the other articles you've written!

    Apr 11, 2014. 09:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Game Of The States [View article]
    I think the last sentence of the article summed it up for me. Buy low. TSLA's stock price has short circuited and I will indeed buy back the shares I sold short at a much lower price in the future. I am a fan of Tesla and perhaps I will own one some day but the valuation has gotten way ahead of itself, in my opinion.
    Mar 30, 2014. 05:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment