Internet2k4

Nuveen Dumps Its CEF Website

ETFconnect will be misssed. I'll be much less likely to even consider CEFs when they don't share a search results screen with comparable ETFs. One less bookmark.

Dollar Shorts Should Look Out

The first question about any analysis, or investment, is what's the time frame for this?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Actually, this is looking something like last spring and summer, seeing, hearing and speaking no evil about the road we were on, until we went single file over the cliff.

While I used to track IFN because the iPath INP was erratic during some sort of national foreign investment embargo a while ago. But I've given it up for the Wisdom Tree EPI, which is now tracking perfectly with the INP and has the edge in volume. By comparison, IFN is on its own CEF planet.

Where Leverage Will Help You in This Market

Agree with Aalan about the difference between leveraged long and short - a chart of 2X or 3X pairs against the benchmark ETF tells the stories. However, the difference does not require "day trading" the shorts in a long term bear trend, which is where we are. They should be profitably sold on sharp index drops (don't be greedy), and dollar cost averaged into the sucker rallies. The mistake is to try to "call the top" for too big an inverse purchase.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

On the long term positioning question, one of the interesting things about DF's recent monthly charts is that the MACD still seems to work. I use MACD as a slightly lagging short term trend confirmation on daily charts, but would never have guessed a 12-26-9 period indicator would have any value over years. An investor in SPY or EWJ above (which have long enough historical data) who waited couple of months for really strong MACD crosses would have hung in through the noise and caught the major trend reversals in reasonably good time. I'm filing this idea for future reference and more back testing, as I weary of life in the Yellow Submarine below the 200SMA.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The 3X funds are fun - I like minimizing absolute exposure for a cheap ticket on the roller coaster. After pulling the trigger too soon around $100, I managed to average into FAZ at $58 these past weeks and fully unloaded it between $82 and $88 yesterday - noticing the trading-screen opportunity accidentally, on an Obama-screen afternoon.

Re C and MS, and the rest, I feel like Eddie Murphy: "I can't be mad at you!" for taking history's biggest tax refund and using it to short the world economy instead of lending it to more losers. It's been a mean old (morally hazardous) world. Now that Vice-President Caligari and his Somnambulist Commander-in-Chief are gone, who knows? Maybe the guy in the driver's seat is actually in charge.

The 'Reflation' Top Ten Portfolio

Rayno,

GL above is right that the leveraged ETFs go off benchmark over time, the math is canvassed pretty well elsewhere - google. But I'd disagree it's unwise to hold them for a while. Many have been out for a couple of years: just chart the ones you hold or the ones GL discloses against their benchmarks to see how they've been performing as this mess has developed. For example, a two year chart of SPY vs SSO will show 35% vs 70% - not bad tracking. The SDS double short is "only" up 15% in absolute terms, but that's 50% better than the SPY. The less liquid or less well-designed ones don't do so well.

10 Things to Consider Before Investing in Forex

I tried a reputable dealer's demo account (not yours) and was continuously electronically nagged to get into the game for real - the butting in by the service provider was so bad I never did sign up. On my medium term time frame for trading, I'm happy enough with the CurrencyShares ETFs, and now ProShares is providing double-long and double-short ETFs for EUR and USD / JPY and USD pairs. The Forex platforms seem entirely oriented toward day traders to maximize their transaction spreads, a different stroke for a different folk.

The Active vs. Passive Funds Debate: Who Wins?

The point of index investing is to accept overall market and sector risks but avoid the corporate management risk inherent in stock picking. Active fund management is just a half-way house for reintroducing management risk - in fact it adds another dimension of "manager risk." Been there, done that, never again.

15 Key Types of Bond ETFs: 2008 Review

Agree with the above comments - weekly arguably manages the volatility better, but line charts are much harder to decipher than OHLC. That said, I was glad to quickly learn of a couple of ETFs I wasn't aware of and where the sectors are relative to 0 line. I'm watching TBT as well, on the bet that treasuries are bubbly and there are too many auctions scheduled next year.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

A Bloomberg interview yesterday revealed there will be a U$ Treasury auction scheduled for nearly every business day in 2009. I've been watching TIP, but adding TBT to the radar screen.

The Safest Ways to Invest in Gold and Silver

I don't understand the premium to NAV for GTU over GLD. I've been in and out of GLD for years, and it always tracks close to the spot price for bullion. Lately I'm using the double-long/short ETFs instead, which are volatile by design, but what is it with the huge markup for a trust that simply holds the metal? Do they spin it from straw, like Rumpelstiltskin?

As I write, GTU is up 10.75% today while GLD is up only 1.17% (?)

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I've been curious about following $COPPER index instead of the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (JJC) which seems to be tracking that index quite well.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Lows aren't in until Case-Shiller turns up again, meaning the toxic asset write-downs are over - let's see today's report, and whether the new regime has a practical fix for mortgage defaults. Deflation can and will be defeated by printing money. Agree with DF on holding lots of cash but can't resist a little gold a little TIPS, and stuffing the stocking with a few double-shorts as they go on a pre-holiday sale. Let's be thankful and raise a Thursday glass to the new ETFs, arriving just in time for this mess. Can't think what I'd have done even two years ago.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dr. O:

FXI tracks (for practical purposes is) the FTSE Xinhua China 25 Index, mainland companies trading on the Hong Kong (not Shanghai) exchange. It's about 40% banks/insurance. There's a PDF Factsheet here:

ftse.com/xinhua/englis...