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Are Emerging Markets Headed Up Or Down?

I just don't buy the near-term comparison of EEM or BRIC economies with the Russell 3000. As national economies, they are literally 50 or more years behind the G8 economies. If you say "China" consists of a few hundred million urban coastal industrial people you lose the "emerging" aspect entirely. Here is an IMF study of relative development of world economies, including the interesting Chapter 5 data on the period 1900-2000. I particularly like Table 5.1: www.imf.org/external/p...

In my mind the prospects (good or bad) of emerging market economies have to be assessed in and of themselves, with no plausible basis for saying they are bound to "catch up" or greatly exceed, or fall well short, of developed economies in any near term. There is an unresolved question of how dependent, or not, China or any other emerging economy is on the American consumer - we may get some clues about "decoupling" from the US in 2007.