Internet2k4

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

There are going to be a lot of wrong calls about equity market capitulation, when we haven't seen the housing market capitulate yet. Of course there might be some more extended tradeable rallies, like last summer's. Any mark to market accounting right now is just an exercise in hallucinatory seller optimism or buyer pessimism, Three or four months of Case Shiller uptrend might tell us this is over, and even that might be misleading if it's only due to another wave of Treasury deficit "stimulus" from a Democrat Congress.

Foreign Exposure: Mutual Funds vs. EFA? Neither...

Re the global warming play: read the science first. We'll all be dead before anybody feels the heat. Not to say Al Gore isn't eventually right, but when is he right? Investors know something about the difference between next week (trader), a couple of years from now (cyclical) and after I'm dead (secular) trends.