Internet2k4

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Actually, this is looking something like last spring and summer, seeing, hearing and speaking no evil about the road we were on, until we went single file over the cliff.

While I used to track IFN because the iPath INP was erratic during some sort of national foreign investment embargo a while ago. But I've given it up for the Wisdom Tree EPI, which is now tracking perfectly with the INP and has the edge in volume. By comparison, IFN is on its own CEF planet.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

On the long term positioning question, one of the interesting things about DF's recent monthly charts is that the MACD still seems to work. I use MACD as a slightly lagging short term trend confirmation on daily charts, but would never have guessed a 12-26-9 period indicator would have any value over years. An investor in SPY or EWJ above (which have long enough historical data) who waited couple of months for really strong MACD crosses would have hung in through the noise and caught the major trend reversals in reasonably good time. I'm filing this idea for future reference and more back testing, as I weary of life in the Yellow Submarine below the 200SMA.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The 3X funds are fun - I like minimizing absolute exposure for a cheap ticket on the roller coaster. After pulling the trigger too soon around $100, I managed to average into FAZ at $58 these past weeks and fully unloaded it between $82 and $88 yesterday - noticing the trading-screen opportunity accidentally, on an Obama-screen afternoon.

Re C and MS, and the rest, I feel like Eddie Murphy: "I can't be mad at you!" for taking history's biggest tax refund and using it to short the world economy instead of lending it to more losers. It's been a mean old (morally hazardous) world. Now that Vice-President Caligari and his Somnambulist Commander-in-Chief are gone, who knows? Maybe the guy in the driver's seat is actually in charge.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

A Bloomberg interview yesterday revealed there will be a U$ Treasury auction scheduled for nearly every business day in 2009. I've been watching TIP, but adding TBT to the radar screen.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I've been curious about following $COPPER index instead of the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (JJC) which seems to be tracking that index quite well.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Lows aren't in until Case-Shiller turns up again, meaning the toxic asset write-downs are over - let's see today's report, and whether the new regime has a practical fix for mortgage defaults. Deflation can and will be defeated by printing money. Agree with DF on holding lots of cash but can't resist a little gold a little TIPS, and stuffing the stocking with a few double-shorts as they go on a pre-holiday sale. Let's be thankful and raise a Thursday glass to the new ETFs, arriving just in time for this mess. Can't think what I'd have done even two years ago.

The Long Case for Japanese Stocks (EWJ)

As an EWJ holder I've been perplexed lately by the strengthening of the Yen versus the U$. I certainly agree that if the domestic demand tend is solid buy Japan, but I read current account surplus as dependency on and vulnerability to US economic momentum and am not very confident that the Japan spike has been based on domestic as opposed to US demand. Any further data or thought on this appreciated.

Buy Japanese Stocks! Reaction to Livedoor-Induced Nikkei Sell-Off (EWJ, ITF, VPL, JEQ, JOF)

The Nikkei 225 was due for correction. It's not all about Livedoor - there have been recent reports of new dilutive issues of stock in the uptrending market and concern that interest rate hikes and a stronger Yen will impact exports and therefore prices (although helping the underperforming U$ denominated ETFs.)