Dennis Byron (Research 2.0)

Microsoft Continues to Waste Shareholder Value on Standards

And the Microhate begins.

But for all of you that prefer to be "locked in" to Sun or IBM, it's a free country. (Oh sorry, no actually in your country, it's not. Nanny Neelie has to tell you which company's products to use.)

Microsoft Getting More SaaS-y

I agree with your analysis of Microsoft's SaaS tactic (that is, bring the functionality up to speed over the net at the pace the market demands). But SaaS should not be considered a feature itself; it is simply a feature delivery method. You'll probably always get more functionality "disconnected" unless they revise the speed of light.

Server Operating System Indicator: Both Windows, Linux Gains Continue

In thinking about Other gaining on Microsoft Windows in Q4, in addition to seaonality related to typical mainframe purchases (Q4 2006 and Q4 2007 both showed upticks in "Other"), there was likely some Q4 2007 decline in Windows demand as buyers awaited Server 2008.

As noted in earlier blog posts, I expect Windows to move toward 50% evenutally at the expense of "Other." This would begin to show up in August 2008 numbers if I am correct and should be very obvious by this time next year.

Server Operating System Indicator: Both Windows, Linux Gains Continue

Thomas, that would require believing that the millions of people participating in a multi-billion ($54B) market do not act rationally. Market analysts like myself don't tend to think that way :)

But just to be compensate for any possible skewing of the data as you suggest, I look at Unix and Linux as one market, and Windows and other as a second market. This is not a Linux vs. Windows comparison but a Unix vs. Linux and Windows vs. Other comparison.

-- Dennis

The Real Danger to Microsoft

Jason,

Except for your closing shot at drunks, your analysis is right on. That is, you have it right on the ad-revenue issue and Microsoft's real intentions. But you really don't understand "online applications."

Microsoft wants Yahoo to help it to go "live" faster, not for the ad revenue (see seekingalpha.com/artic...).

As I say in that post, " If it chooses to, Microsoft is able to change the user’s total information technology experience in a way no other software supplier can. Microsoft can combine the role of the user who is at once a consumer, an information worker, an individual looking for entertainment or personal information, and so forth." When I say "no other software supplier," that includes Google.

Speaking as someone who takes it one day a time, smart gamblers--whether addicts or not--don't drink and gamble at the same time. So don't bet against Microsoft just because some drinkers of the Google Kool-aid need to dry out.

Microsoft's Last Big Beat: Internet Domination or Death

At Research 2.0, we agree with your conclusion that Microsoft understands the information technology market situation well and is acting agressively to take advantage. I even go further and believe that Microsoft is uniquely positioned--because of its combination of enterprise and consumer computing experience--to stay well ahead of Oracle, SAP, IBM and Google in the enterprise category. Apple is a real threat on the consumer side and Yahoo will get Microsoft where it needs to get to respond on the consumer side faster than building something from scratch.

I caution you on your underlying assumption about Linux being developed "at almost no cost" however. IBM, Intel, Novell, HP, Fujitsu, EMC, Oracle, Sun, Motorola, and all the other sponsors of the Linux Foundation (LF) as well as many that work on Linux without belonging to the Foundation have spent billions on maintaining and updating the Linux kernel both in cash and in-kind contributions to the development effort.

If "low-cost Linux" is at all key to your conclusion, be careful. In fact, I believe relatively soon, Microsoft will become--along with Google--one of the largest users of Linux, thanking the LF profusely as it makes that transition.

Sun-MySQL: The Real Winner is Oracle

TIBCOMonkey --

The reference to SAP should have made clearer that I was referring to its NetWeaver business. As described in many previous posts, SAP in CY 2006 made impressive gains in the middleware market. SAP landed “standalone” middleware business not dependent on its ERP business. Based on the exchange rate used in its 20-F, SAP recognized more than $1B in license/maintenance/li... revenue for NetWeaver in the 12 months ending March 31, 2007.

In fact, counting Business Objects but not counting BEA, SAP probably surpassed Oracle in the middleware market in 2007. That's the part of SAP Sun will be competing with.

Dennis

OS Survey Results: Microsoft Can Breathe Easy As Linux Levels Off

Just to be clear, this is not a matter of Microsoft spin or anything else. This is the user community voting with their pocketbook.

The server-market results reported by IDC for Q1 2007 (and every quarter in what they call their Server Tracker) are not related to the long delayed and much discussed Microsoft Vista client operating software sales in the first quarter (IDC has another service called the PC Tracker for that). The Server Tracker, according to IDC press release, is a measurement of HP, IBM (all products including AS/400 and mainframes), Sun, Dell, Fujitsu, and so forth servers and whether they get provisioned with AS/400, Linux, Unix (all variants), Windows, zOS, and so forth operating systems.