John Hussman: We Are Selling Off Our Children's Future [View article]
sorry; but greed wins in the short term. It will be up to the generation that has been screwed to implement a structure that will provide the necessary controls.
I think when commercial real estate tanks that we will see another down leg. If not this, there seem to have been plenty of unforeseen circumstances that tipped the balance down before; and the next "last known problem" will do it again.
4 Ways to Tell if This Bear Market Has Really Bottomed [View article]
So Mr. Quant, what statistic, published where, will indicate the end of mutual fund cash out and the beginning of the accumulation phase? Thanks for the tip.
On Dec 11 12:41 PM reluctantQuant wrote:
> plenty of lagging indicators to look at, no doubt about that.
> > > only question I really want to know is - when does retail stop selling? > that's what's preventing good hunters from starting to buy. experienced > hands are callling this a buying opportunity, but managers can't > execute when redemptions control the game. > > good names (yes, be picky) are massively "on sale - flashing blue > light special" -- maybe not the last sale or the lowest sale, but > smart shoppers should be legging in. next portion should be around > late Jan, early Feb earnings season (insert Monty Pyton "Bring out > yer dead" quote here). Companies are going to pull junk out of their > basement that no one ever imagined and drag it out to the sidewalk > on these announcements, and earning surprises stats are going to > be fabulous. > > bonds? they called it, if you'd been watching your yield curve and > your OIS spread. now spreads are wacked because you JUST CAN'T FIND > A BID. sure 1-mo bills are negative. Many will pay par-plus just > to avoid the vol and the horrible conversation with their overseers. > and of course a treasury trader can't short the things to ya, (carry > & bal sheet both wrong) so the last true long gets the trade. > when the low investment grade spreads start moving in consistently, > you'd better already be on the train. > > is it the bottom? > moot question. > jack be nimble and start making it back. >
John Hussman: However It's Written, TARP Is a Bad Idea [View article]
I'm curious, Mr. Hussman ... did you have an opportunity to offer an opinion to the decision makers of TARP, or was this view even considered (to your knowledge)? They stated that they looked at alternatives. Did they?
Post-Bailout Investing: The Big Picture [View article]
I've been in and out of gold for the last few years. It looks like the price gets pushed around by the big money. All of the rationalization why it should be up or down gets blown away when the IMF decides to unload or the hedge funds decide to bulk up. The case that you cite, central banks suppressing the price for political reasons, gives no hope that the price would ever be allowed to reflect the fiat money devaluation that we are seeing. But what happens when all of the fiat money slips at the same time???
From what I see; there are two broad issues. First, the near term finances and the unravelling of the financial system must be stopped and stopped quickly. The current proposal is a solution and may not be optimal; but the speed and size is appropriate. It should be noted that many current news reports cite the lobbyists who are trying to seek advantage for their sponsors in this process. This leads to the second broad problem of correcting how we got here, which I believe has its root cause in campaign finance reform. The regulations have been changed to allow this freewheeling, highly margined investment and the growth of institutions "too large to fail". This includes the understaffing of federal agencies to police the laws that are on the books now. All bought and paid for by campaign contributions to a group of legislators who spend more time campaigning for reelection funds than they do on making unbiased analysis of legislation. Whatever the laws are people will game them for advantage or get them changed through influence. We need to make it easier for legislators to "do the right thing". As for punishment ... aren't we all guilty?
Higher Bills for the U.S. Means Higher Gold Prices [View article]
Cookieguy: for those of us with dial up where a 10 minute video takes 4 hours to download, please supply a link to the written statement so we can get on board.
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On Dec 11 12:41 PM reluctantQuant wrote:
> plenty of lagging indicators to look at, no doubt about that.
>
>
> only question I really want to know is - when does retail stop selling?
> that's what's preventing good hunters from starting to buy. experienced
> hands are callling this a buying opportunity, but managers can't
> execute when redemptions control the game.
>
> good names (yes, be picky) are massively "on sale - flashing blue
> light special" -- maybe not the last sale or the lowest sale, but
> smart shoppers should be legging in. next portion should be around
> late Jan, early Feb earnings season (insert Monty Pyton "Bring out
> yer dead" quote here). Companies are going to pull junk out of their
> basement that no one ever imagined and drag it out to the sidewalk
> on these announcements, and earning surprises stats are going to
> be fabulous.
>
> bonds? they called it, if you'd been watching your yield curve and
> your OIS spread. now spreads are wacked because you JUST CAN'T FIND
> A BID. sure 1-mo bills are negative. Many will pay par-plus just
> to avoid the vol and the horrible conversation with their overseers.
> and of course a treasury trader can't short the things to ya, (carry
> & bal sheet both wrong) so the last true long gets the trade.
> when the low investment grade spreads start moving in consistently,
> you'd better already be on the train.
>
> is it the bottom?
> moot question.
> jack be nimble and start making it back.
>
Let's Get Ready to Rebound [View article]
FYI - page missing on this link
John Hussman: However It's Written, TARP Is a Bad Idea [View article]
Post-Bailout Investing: The Big Picture [View article]
8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend [View article]
The Bailout to End All Bailouts [View article]
Higher Bills for the U.S. Means Higher Gold Prices [View article]
Using Several Stock Rating Services [View article]