vince v

Insiders Selling Heavily: What's Up?

Perhaps selling now to avoid heavy taxes later. e.g. The devil that you know ... etc

4 Ways to Tell if This Bear Market Has Really Bottomed

So Mr. Quant, what statistic, published where, will indicate the end of mutual fund cash out and the beginning of the accumulation phase? Thanks for the tip.


On Dec 11 12:41 PM reluctantQuant wrote:

> plenty of lagging indicators to look at, no doubt about that.

>
>
> only question I really want to know is - when does retail stop selling?
> that's what's preventing good hunters from starting to buy. experienced
> hands are callling this a buying opportunity, but managers can't
> execute when redemptions control the game.
>
> good names (yes, be picky) are massively "on sale - flashing blue
> light special" -- maybe not the last sale or the lowest sale, but
> smart shoppers should be legging in. next portion should be around
> late Jan, early Feb earnings season (insert Monty Pyton "Bring out
> yer dead" quote here). Companies are going to pull junk out of their
> basement that no one ever imagined and drag it out to the sidewalk
> on these announcements, and earning surprises stats are going to
> be fabulous.
>
> bonds? they called it, if you'd been watching your yield curve and
> your OIS spread. now spreads are wacked because you JUST CAN'T FIND
> A BID. sure 1-mo bills are negative. Many will pay par-plus just
> to avoid the vol and the horrible conversation with their overseers.
> and of course a treasury trader can't short the things to ya, (carry
> & bal sheet both wrong) so the last true long gets the trade.
> when the low investment grade spreads start moving in consistently,
> you'd better already be on the train.
>
> is it the bottom?
> moot question.
> jack be nimble and start making it back.
>

John Hussman: However It's Written, TARP Is a Bad Idea

I'm curious, Mr. Hussman ... did you have an opportunity to offer an opinion to the decision makers of TARP, or was this view even considered (to your knowledge)? They stated that they looked at alternatives. Did they?

Post-Bailout Investing: The Big Picture

I've been in and out of gold for the last few years. It looks like the price gets pushed around by the big money. All of the rationalization why it should be up or down gets blown away when the IMF decides to unload or the hedge funds decide to bulk up. The case that you cite, central banks suppressing the price for political reasons, gives no hope that the price would ever be allowed to reflect the fiat money devaluation that we are seeing. But what happens when all of the fiat money slips at the same time???