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Ordinary Average Guy

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  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    The Federal Reserve is run by International Bankers, with international interests, so their actions are not focused on what the average American citizen would consider to be in the avg. US citizens best interest. Further, the Federal Reserve, since day one, believes in and actively executes Socialism as their political and economic philosophy that they impose on both US and foreign people backed by the Federal Reserve notes.

    There are some very effective ways to increase the velocity of money, and rather quickly at that, however, the methods that I am talking of would be in direct conflict of Socialist policy, so I would expect that we will stumble along for possibly several years without much stabilization in money velocity until we find new "normal" velocity levels within an established socialized nation. I recall seeing a money velocity chart somewhere recently, and as I recall, velocity has been on the decline since the late 70's which is consistent with what I would expect to see under the current system that we live under. There is not a simple way to move a prosperous free society to a socialized society and maintain velocity levels during the transition. It will take time to find new "normal" levels, which will be much lower than early post WWII levels.

    What we experienced post WWII during the births of the baby-boomer generation, in terms of a large and prosperous middle class cannot be achieved in a society run by socialism, so it will take some time to acclimate in the US to this form of government and control.
    Nov 21 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    Vooter, I'll restate John Wilson's comment from above:

    "...[QE] was executed only to recapitalize the Fed's friends, the member banks and also to enable the government's spending by keeping rates artificially low and to buy its bonds when other buyers were not showing up."
    Nov 21 11:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    JW, I'm probably preaching to the choir when I mention that the gigantic increase to the FED's balance sheet in no way was intended or anticipated by the FED that this money creation would find its way to the private sector and stimulate economic activity, inflation, and a recovery in the US.

    The ongoing policies of taxes, regulations, and most recently, ACA, being imposed on the US population clearly is dismantling the post WWII middle class in the US. This US middle class was an extremely strong segment of the US population that launched the US into global economic superiority post WWII up until Viet Nam, and has now been slowly but steadily been dismantled.

    In the bigger picture, the US is deliberately being transformed into a society in which is more comparable to that of the rest of the G20 population. We have a long way to go, but we our on course to reach the goals set for us.
    Nov 20 11:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldzilla [View article]
    Mirkotoscano, 10% gold allocation to a portfolio seems reasonable as insurance. Physical gold is actually very stable in that in theory most of the mined gold in existence still exists, and ~ 1.5% new gold is added annually compared to the existing gold inventory. Gold priced in US Dollars or other currency is typically very volatile. This is indicative of the instability of fiat currency and the fact that gold pricing is set by the futures market, or "paper" gold pricing.

    Also currently, the equity markets are overbought as shown by the Shiller P/E ratio, which is currently at 26.7, or 60.8% higher than its historical mean of 16.6. http://bit.ly/T0XPd4

    According to the US Debt & Debt limit vs. gold chart here http://bit.ly/1w7C8uI
    gold should be currently priced around $1,800 per ounce. If one's time frame to invest is longer, vs. short or intermediate, it may be wise now to invest much more than 10% of a portfolio into physical gold or silver until both the pm prices "normalize" to the US debt/gold comparison, AND the Shiller P/E ratio adjusts back to or below the 16.6 range.

    Using today's levels, if we had $1800 per oz. gold, and a <16.6 Shiller P/E ratio on equities, I would basically agree with a 90/10 or 80/20 mix of stocks to physical gold allotment in a longer term portfolio investment.
    Nov 20 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    Doug, I support your fundamental approach in forecasting the gold price along with your suggestion to cost average into the physical precious metals for holding. I also would like to give a plug out to your "8 indicators that tell us where gold might go next" article http://bit.ly/1xuc5ic.

    These are good indicators to monitor to give us a good feel for where the pm's are heading in the intermediate to longer term.

    I am still stuck on the current activities of the COMEX in that the obvious naked shorting that is in control of the gold price period. Until these activities cease on the COMEX, it will be very hard to forecast when the gold rebound will occur. http://bit.ly/1xuc5ig
    There is no denying that COMEX selloffs like this one from Nov 18-19 have been occurring, and the smoking gun is in the hands of the FED & central banking. If one were to understand either how long this price suppression will occur voluntarily by the FED, or how long it will take until this paper suppression strategy can no longer possibly occur do to other market forces or forces successfully opposing the FED step in, we then may have a better idea as to when the gold price rebounds to much higher levels supported by current and trending fundamentals.

    Although, below $1,200 gold, we have been going into backwardation with GOFO, in which gold has historically bounced upward following backwardation, so I'm not sure we will see gold prices south of $1,100 or $1,000, unless other economic factors evolve to support a drop below these levels without pushing GOFO into backwardation. I would guess that lower oil prices should have a lowering effect on AISC for the miners, and perhaps that offers some room for lower gold prices without seriously reducing mining supply into the system.
    Nov 20 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    But then things took a turn for the worse. As I sat back on the train in the lounge sipping martinis and boasting about my investment strategies with strangers giving me the strangest looks by the way, I glanced out through the window and expected to see snow & ice, and instead I saw water and vegetation. I realized I had made an error and I hopped off the train at the next stop. I then proceeded to board the next train that approached. To my demise...another southbound train!!
    Nov 18 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    So there I was, impatiently waiting on the train platform for the northbound train to approach, and I impulsively stepped aboard the southbound train! Sheesh! I'll be back. Just taking a shortcut!
    Nov 18 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    OW, mainly USLV, SAND. Mix in a little SLW, SPXU, & UGLD, and now I'm waiting for a charitable contribution from the top producers from the IT challenge II to lend me some virtual funds of which I promise I will make good on and pay everyone back with interest. ;)
    Nov 18 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    Amen JBT!! -The madcap laughs/OAG.
    Nov 17 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Just out of curiosity, what are the other media experts forecasting the gold futures market price in the short & intermediate term, over at ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, and NY Times? It is valuable to get a variety and solid cross-section of expert and objective opinion on subjects like this.
    Nov 15 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Robert, That is shocking that all (5) of these CNBC articles that you reference are calling for much lower gold prices on the futures exchange! I'm seeing some other opinions out there stating otherwise.

    David Stockman calling for a breakdown in the monetary system:
    http://bit.ly/1zr45O9

    Gerald Celente is uncovering Russia's big accumulation of physical gold:
    http://bit.ly/1zr44tq

    John Ing is detailing facts about the end of the gold bear market:
    http://bit.ly/1zr45Oc

    Jason Goepfert is showing that corporate insiders are now buying aggressively in the gold market:
    http://bit.ly/1zr44tr

    Ronald-Peter Stoferle is showing the next upward super cycle is forming and ready to launch upward for the pm mining sector:
    http://bit.ly/1zr44tu

    I'm getting ready to sell off my VOO funds and move into GDX; GDXJ; and possibly into NUGT & JNUG.

    Does CNBC have any solid reporting lately on the global warming crisis?
    Nov 15 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 87......... [View instapost]
    not very often...
    Nov 15 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 87......... [View instapost]
    US & China agree to limit greenhouse gasses.

    http://wapo.st/1wTbgPH

    Hopefully BHO also pre-agreed to extend China some extensions to this agreement that was supposed to kick in by 2030 for them. That date seems a little aggressive for China.

    In the meantime, although this carbon tax seems to be a beautiful scheme to impose more taxes on private businesses opposed by the left, we have a few years for the science fiction community to decide whether we have global warming or global cooling, and how to modify this science to justify that we need to control carbon emissions to save the planet.

    For starters, maybe we can impose limits on influencial world politicians from meeting and discussing schemes to alter the climate temperature on the backs of their political enemies, private business. After all, there is a lot of carbon dioxide in the flatulence of these leaders. Certainly enough to shift the planets temperature up or down, whichever you choose, but clearly this flatulence released by all of these powerful leaders in concert with one another in confined quarters has far more devastating effects on our society than any of their verbal discussions that they participate in at these meetings.
    http://abt.cm/1wTbiHw
    Nov 12 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 87......... [View instapost]
    JW, But it is obvious to the overwhelming majority of us out here that gold is falling and has much further to fall, right?

    Manipulation? That was awhile ago and it will probably never happen again. Besides, What difference does it make?
    Nov 12 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Strange Things Happening With The Gold Held At The Gold ETFs [View article]
    Hebba, This is not a knock on the better contributors of SA articles in this sector, but in contrast to your well written articles, like this one, upon closer look, the others seem to frequently draw over the lines with their crayons.

    You make a very good case with GLD, in the bigger picture, vs. SLV, physical demand, and manipulation. Following your logic, I would be interested to know your thoughts and possible reasons as to why GLD was created? Are there advantages for the AP's of GLD to operate within this ETF vs. just holding physical gold within the COMEX?
    Nov 11 10:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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