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pjn60

pjn60
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  • An Update On Monitise's Fundamentals [View article]
    Mr Cooperman mentioned MONI prominently at the Barron's investment conference this past Monday. Along w SD and a few others.
    Oct 24, 2013. 05:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating Our View On Realty Income: Is Now The Time? [View article]
    Fine article. I like the Co too and have owned it off an on over the years. But the details of their debt are missing. How much of their debt is locked in to current lower rates? For how long?
    Jun 12, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Undervalued Mortgage REIT With A Sustainable Dividend [View article]
    It's "bad" because it's not unlimited. At some point they are used up, then where will the supplement come from? Or, the assets that are sold to generate div payments erode the income stream - less mortgage assets means less dividend generation. So it isn't a non-issue at all. Hey I love the stock. I've owned it 3 times an made money all 3, including 40% this year. But they will probably have to cut their dividend just like everybody else. That's when to buy, all else being equal.
    Dec 17, 2012. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Wireless says it will distribute an aggregate $8.5B to 55% owner Verizon (VZ) and 45% owner Vodafone (VOD) by year's end. A $10B distribution was made last year, but Verizon had been non-committal until now about a follow-up. VOD +2.2% AH. VZ +0.2%. (PR[View news story]
    I guess all those hedgies an mutual fund mgrs who have had VOD as a top 10 holding for a year + had a reason after all. Long VOD too.
    Nov 12, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Results Show mREITs Can Still Pay 10% Annual Dividend Yields [View article]
    I think Lucas' insight is excellent. Thinking of MReits as CE's could be a very useful tool in analyzing when to own them. So, to my point, would you buy or own a CEF, even with a modest discount, if you knew it's dividend was likely to be cut by 40%? It's pretty amazing to me that so few who read this article think this is a problem. My guess is once the cuts start, that's ALL we'll be reading about in Alpha and elsewhere.
    Nov 11, 2012. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Results Show mREITs Can Still Pay 10% Annual Dividend Yields [View article]
    Oh I agree 10% is a fine div. That's not my point, which is that the share price would be devastated by such a reduction. Therefore the issue is, if that's what's going to happen to MReits, i.e. a huge div drop, and it's in the foreseeable future, why own them now? Wait until the div and price drops then buy. The article seems to assume the share price wouldn't be impacted by such a large reduction in div. I'm just saying it would and that's just as important if not more so than what the div level will be in this environment.
    Nov 10, 2012. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Results Show mREITs Can Still Pay 10% Annual Dividend Yields [View article]
    The current div yield is 15.8%. If it were to be reduced to 10% (I assume the writer means over the next year or so) I would suggest you'd see a selloff that would make the recent one look like a small blip. So saying that an investment that pays almost 16% now could support a 10% rate seems to me a pretty stunning statement.
    Nov 8, 2012. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REIT owners shouldn't take any comfort from recent downticks in mortgage refinance activity, says American Capital Agency CEO Gary Kain on the earnings call. Interest rates ticked up a bit and mortgage companies have capacity issues, but don't expect either to last. He again points out, AGNC's concentration on low balance mortgages protects it somewhat from prepayment risk. [View news story]
    Bottom line "between the lines", I would expect a decrease in the dividend by 100-200 bps in the next Q or 2.
    Nov 1, 2012. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple A Buy? [View article]
    I agree w Mac. I don't think it's particularly interesting at all. What insight does it give you on AAPL? Buy if it goes below $8.25? I mean really. Why set up a criteria like that then completely ignore it? That's what speculation, i.e gambling, is - Buying something above its "intrinsic" value. So your first rule is useless, your second is obvious, and your third, well, that's a mystery. Based on the first two, I wouldn't waste any energy wondering about what it is. But based on your article maybe it's the "holiday season rule". That is the sole criteria you give to buy the stock. Brilliant.
    Oct 25, 2012. 12:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvest Your Apples, Winter Is Coming [View article]
    It's easy to forget, or not give sufficient importance to, the way this stock has fluctuated, even during its rally over the last year. I don't know whether it will get to 522 or not, but I seriously doubt it will just keep going straight up either. It is subject to corrections just like any other financial asset. I think that's the only point being made in Celebro's article, and it's a good one. Choose your parameters and act accordingly. Volatile stocks like AAPL lend themselves to some interesting possibilities if you can put the emotion away, whether it be wild optimism or doom and gloom pessimism and make some reasonable judgements a couple of times a year. You don't have to be a day trader to do that.
    Aug 28, 2012. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.3%) experiences a flash crash, plummeting 11% in the opening seconds of trade on volume of 5.7M shares (normally trades about 100K in the first 2 minutes). One wonders if any stops got triggered. [View news story]
    Our approach was to sell last week when it started to act strange. After a pretty big runup, and being so far above book, pullbacks are inevitable in our view, so we sold. Will we be "right"? Who knows? Our intention is to buy back in when it gets closer to book, as mentioned above. We love the company. But that may not happen. And long term these MReits will not be great investments when rates rise, divvy or no. And that will be when no one expects. So we say enjoy while you can, trade on fundamentals, but beware the downside which will come at some point.
    Aug 7, 2012. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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