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7736151

7736151
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  • Russia Looks Attractive [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Im fully aware of the limitations of X3 ETF's, having said that I used the same strategy back in march when the Crimean crisis started and It pay off handsomely, without a doubt Im going to lose 3% of the upside when the ETF eventually recover pre war levels, but that loss will be meaningless against a 25-30% up side. Lets hope Mr.Putin relax for a bit and lets enjoy this up and coming bear market rally in Russia. 
    Apr 16 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Looks Attractive [View article]
    I started a Position today in RUSL aX3 etf and Im planning to hold it for a month, I don't think the Russian economy will do wonders but I do believe that the market is oversold and have to bounce off to pre war levels, and that is a 10-12% upside in the micex , and if you translate that to a leveraged Russian etf that will become nearly a 30 % profit in less than month, remember geopolitical volatility is always shortlived, the only thing that is worrying me in this position I took in Russia is the sell off in US stocks that can bring down the rest of the world. appart from that patience will be rewarded.
    Apr 8 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Get Distracted By Massive Insider Stock Sales At Toll Brothers [View article]
    No one knows better than an insider the true value of a stock, investing 101 says buy low and sell high, if the insiders are selling at these prices I guess is their way to tell us that perhaps at $39 the shares are slightly overpriced and that they think the shares are due to a small pull back, so why buy more shares or hold on to a position that has gone up 10% in 2014 if the insiders believe it is a good time to sell? I decided to sell my shares pocket the 10% I have made since January 2014 and Im looking to buy the dip. Although the charts are showing a cup and handle pattern that just broke out so the potential for the shares to go higher is significant, having said that 10% gains in a stock in less that 2 months for me is a sell, that is a year worth of gains.
    Feb 28 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Continue To Confound The Bears [View article]
    The reason homebuilders are rallying hard whilst the S&P 500 is tanking, is the mess in emerging markets, that has created a flight to quality that have push down the 10 year treasury yields, therefore, keeping mortgage rates at 4.50%, Fundamentals means nothing at this point in time its all about the 10 year treasury once again.
    the outflow of funds from the emerging markets to the US is filling the void that tapering was suppose to leave in the treasury market, I wonder what is going to happen to homebuilders when the panic cools off and yields on the 10 year treasury goe back to 3% in less than a week? and what is going to happen when housing data is taken again at face value?the latests new home sales are not looking good, pending home sales are terrible, mortgage origination still depressed and there is no wage growth at all. is just a matter of time before the day of reckoning come to homebuilders.
    Jan 31 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders boosted by D.R. Horton results [View news story]
    I shorted TOL today @36.40, with the FED statement from tomorrow homebuilders are going to tank hard, if the FED continue with the taper the stocks will fall because of it, and if the FED do not taper homebuilders will also fall as the market will start to wonder if the recovery is sustainable. either way homebuilders are overvalue and have to go back to reasonable valuations. 
    Jan 28 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders' Stagnating Sales: It's The Affordability, Stupid! [View article]
    I was referring to current price action on homebuilders stocks, they have being rallying since the FOMC announced tapering on December 17th 2013,but you are right there is no arguing with the long term picture for housing. 
    Jan 10 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders' Stagnating Sales: It's The Affordability, Stupid! [View article]
    contrarian advisor, those funds are like the black boxes placed on planes there is no way to know what they have been up to until they leave a trade or get crushed on them, but my guess is that they are probably downsizing their portfolio as we speak. These guys are the smart money and I don't think they are going to wait for a downturn in housing in order to sell their properties from what I have researched they are already selling their properties to small investors and financing those purchases. the jobs report today is very worrisome only 74K jobs were created in December and the market was expecting 200K jobs, with higher mortgage rates and rising home prices and tapering just about to start I do not see stronger sales in the near future. the short case is becoming even more clear at current valuations, perhaps the author of this article was a little early on his timing but the strategy will easily pay off with some patience. 
    Jan 10 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders' Stagnating Sales: It's The Affordability, Stupid! [View article]
    Thank You for a great article, The point as I see it is this:
    1. if there is wage growth and Job growth in The following months it will be possible for homebuilders to trump higher mortgage rates and rising home prices.

    2. If there is any indication that home prices are likely to be hurt, institutional investors will not hesitate to dump their properties and get The heck out of the land lord business, they got in this trade for the principal appreciation which already happened, the attractive rent income was only a bonus. In addition, it will be good to know if they bought these properties with borrowed cash and at what rates so we can have an indication of when they are likely to move to the next trade.

    3. Im keeping an eye on new home sales and the case shiller index of home prices when they start to show weakness is the go ahead signal to short homebuilders so for the time being Im just riding the trend very carefully.
    Jan 5 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Home Sales Report: Time To Get Short The Homebuilders [View article]
    Bull camp:
    Economy is improving which translates into lower unemployment And higher wage growth, all of these will help homebuilders trump higher mortgage rates.
    Rising home prices will increase profit margins for homebuilders And take afloat homeowners underwater. spring selling season is underway And homebuilders stocks usually rally hard during this period.
    Bear camp:Rising home prices and Rising mortgage rates will price out home buyers off the market.
    Home prices have risen due to institutional investors purchases not because of the average Joe buying a house. The institutional investors are ready to leave the market at the slightest sign of weakness in home prices.
    Banks are ready to dump their properties not longer underwater, therefore, increasing competition for new home sales.
    Pick your favourite, bull or bear, but current homebuilder stocks valuations are toppy And stocks allways go back to their mean.
    Jan 4 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notable earnings before Friday’s open [View news story]
    God can this saga can get any worst? I hope the market has discounted all the bad news that are likely to come out
    Dec 19 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Earnings Preview: Sector And Company Require More Time [View article]
    Thank you for a great article I agree completely with you TOL is overvalued and the earnings news coming out tomorrow are already discounted, Fundamentals mean nothing at this moment in time for homebuilders its all about tapering.

    Home-builder stocks will be the target of heavy selling pressure once again. Despite all of the recent news in the media citing a housing recovery, the leading housing stocks will be retreating. The catalyst for the decline in the home-builder stocks is once again higher bond yields on the 10-year U.S.

    Americans have got used to a low mortgage environment, that's one of the side effects of the Quantitative easing medicine of the FED, in people's minds regardless of historical standards, a Jumbo 30 year mortgage higher than 4.40-4.50% is high, therefore, as soon as rates go above this psychological threshold refinancing activity and home sales will slow down.

    The reason home prices are rising has nothing to do with the retail investor which is always behind a healthy and sustainable momentum in the housing market.
    The reason behind rising home prices are the institutional investors, the big boys according to Robert Shiller have bought approximately 100,000 homes, the majority of them previously foreclosed properties. They bought the homes in a limited number of markets, mostly in the West, and pushed prices dramatically higher in these regions, as competition for the properties increased.
    the time to bet on homebuilders was from 2011 until May 2013, anyone who bought and hold shares of homebuilders after May 2013 would probably got burned by selling when things got nasty as the volatility was to hard to stomach, or are marginally up and wondering when the next plunge will come .
    we all have seen what happens to homebuilders when tapering rumors start to hit the wire, things get ugly for homebuilders.

    Furthermore, investors that want to chase the S&P 500 rally into year end and do not want to buy stocks in sectors above 52 week highs might consider buying the laggards such as the homebuilders possibly pushing stock prices a bit higher. Nevertheless, why would you buy a stock in a sector sensitive to interest rates when you can put your money in a sector that is not going to be affected by this issue in a few months, my answer would be lack of information on how interest rates can affect the real estate sector.

    Furthermore, if I am loosing money on TOL and Im doing well in other parts of my portfolio I will take this as an opportunity to reduce my capital gains taxes by selling TOL before year end.

    Technically speaking, Toll Brothers has a very strong resistance at $34.74 and a weak one at $34 and every time it hits these prices the stock is not able to hold these levels for more than a day or two so I would short the hell out of TOL above 34, I may have some pain for a day or two if it touches $35 but the stock will inevitably go back to 32.50 where is priced at fair value. 
    Dec 9 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman takes big stakes in the GSEs [View news story]
    does anyone know at what price Ackman bought its shares?
    Nov 15 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae: What Is Happening Here? [View article]
    Our day in court is December 8th
    Nov 4 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Successful BBM Launch Changes For BlackBerry Shareholders [View article]
    Google made a bid for USD1 billion for whatsapp last year I don´t see BBM valued at a higher price than that since they are not monetizing new users. maybe it will stop the bleeding of BBRY users in developing countries as they may perceived BBM relevant once again but to so say that it will persuade users away from IOS or androind is a mouthfull we are nearly a year in since the launch of BB10 and we are still waiting for key apps such as instagran not to mentioned that Im quite worry that there are not going to be app updates for BB10 in the future I love my Z10 but is a pain in the cojones not being able to find the apps you need on demand.
    Oct 28 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Is Hot Right Now; See What Stocks Are On The Rise [View article]
    it all depends on FSLR 3Q earnings(31th oct) results if they beat the $0,96 consensus the whole sector will be lifted to resistance level of $64,75 as the stock acts as a bellwether for the health of the sector, if consensus is not beat say adios amigo to this rally as we are probably going back to test support at $44,36 in just a matter of minutes.
    Oct 23 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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56 Comments
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