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  • Watch Out Apple: Here Comes Xiaomi, Microsoft Might Be Right Behind [View article]
    What a house of cards argument:

    1) A nice table that the authors admits is subjective to "prove" that Xiaomi is comparable to the iPhone.

    2) A vague analysis of Google Play vs. Apple's App Store with no real numbers: "The Android ecosystem has also closed the gap with Apple's App Store. Google Play downloads are now greater than Apple's and Google Play revenue is catching up."

    3) The opinion that a "commanding unit share may ultimately lead developers to shift from iOS to Android..."

    With regard to argument #1, considering that Mr. Blair's is known for only looking at price points, I'm going to ignore his silly opinion table and let it be trashed by any techie who has actually used both devices.

    With regard to arguments #2 and #3, this is another rehash of the old market share means everything fallacy. According to Apple, their App Store billings rose 50% from the previous year, resulting in $15B in revenues for developers and a $4.5B cut for Apple. As long as these numbers continue (even with 0 growth), Apple will maintain a profitable and sticky ecosystem and have no problem with developers working in the iOS environment.

    The problem with any type of investment is the time horizon. Apple may go down in the long run, but as a wise man once said "in the long run we shall all be dead." Shorting Apple over the next 2-3 years may not kill you, but it could be really painful.
    Jan 17, 2015. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Freak Out About Google's 2% Cost Per Click Decline [View article]
    I love the tone of the article how it's not even the worst of the YoY losses. It reminds me of this other tech company that disappointed over multiple quarters and suffered a 45% pull back from it's all-time high.
    Oct 17, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Undervalued? [View article]
    It's funny how Apple is "stagnating" at 100 considering that was the all-time high for Apple in September 2012.
    Oct 14, 2014. 04:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Seriously Siri-Less Apple [View article]
    The author is making that claim that Apple will have major problems in the future if they allow Nuance to be bought by Samsung, but that if Apple bids for the company, they will waste millions of dollars.

    If Apple doubled the bid to $100 million, that would represent less than 1/1000 of Apple's cash reserves. (0.000629722921914% of their $158.8 billion in cash reserves as of Jan. 2014 to be exact).

    Using these proportions, it would be like saying a human being was severely injured after tripping over a grain of sand.
    Oct 1, 2014. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 'Bendgate' Means For Apple [View article]
    Christ. Is that what they're calling it? Adding "gate" to the end of stuff is worse than adding "i" to the beginning.

    zd2002's comment is spot on.
    Sep 26, 2014. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Difference Between Apple And Samsung [View article]
    Considering market studies report that three times more people switch from Android to iOS than the other way around, the question is not whether the new phones will be enough, but how much the 6's will cut into Android's high end smartphones.

    "Among buyers who switched brands, Apple took three times as many from Samsung (33%) as Samsung took from Apple (11%)"
    Sep 11, 2014. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Tell The iWatch What It Can't Do [View article]
    Good article that hints at the iWatch becoming a new category that reaches outside the traditional watch industry.

    Tech analysts have already guessed at some of these new applications, but has anyone thought much about the health applications?

    There are new portable diabetes pumps that can administer insulin through a patch the user wears instead of a needle. If a medication can be administered without a needle, we shouldn't be far from being able to test a patient's blood sugar level the same way. Once this is in place, developers should be able to create a smart phone app that monitors blood sugar levels, knows when to administer insulin and also stays in contact with a personal physician. The iWatch seems like the perfect device to alert people to these kind of changes in their body chemistry.

    Lifeline is a service that provides a device that the elderly wear around their necks. It is a combination telephone and motion sensor. If a person gets hurt, they push a button and the lifeline service calls for an ambulance. The premium service can automatically detect if a person falls (with a 95% certainty) and automatically calls for help. This seems like another health service that could be replaced by the iWatch.

    These are just two of the ways Apple could open up completely new markets with the iWatch.
    Jun 30, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Dithers While Google Reinvents The Smartwatch [View article]
    "Three different high-quality smartwatches are set to be released this summer, so Apple has an increased level of competition in the wearables category already."

    "Currently, the only comparison that consumers have to a smartwatch would be a Fitbit-type device, but products in this category have only sold 2.7 million units in the first quarter of this year..."

    I'm not sure you can have it both ways. Either these companies are spending huge amounts of R&D money to release smart watches because they anticipate that it will become a huge market, or Apple is going to revolutionize a new product category in which crappy products like the Samsung smart watch are only selling 10K units per month.
    Jun 27, 2014. 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Ecosystem Is Unmatched [View article]
    Thanks for the article on the convergence of Apple operating systems and how this will help create a seamless user experience over multiple devices. My only correction would be the life span of computers. Anyone who uses MACs for their business will get to a point where the productivity gains outweigh the cost of upgrading. I would say the average turnover rate would be 3-5 years.
    Jun 11, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Wrong About Apple [View article]
    "Consumers are not stupid. Brand is important but brand alone will not carry double the price of a comparable product forever, and brand loyalty is easily damaged if consumers believe they are being ripped off."

    Source, Michael Blair's voiced opinion (although some would ascribe these pronouncements to another orifice)

    This is the fundamental assumption MB always makes and it is completely false. Operating systems and user experience are the fundamental reason why people are loyal to Apple and the vast majority of them won't change.

    It is also why more Android users than ever are switching to iOS

    There will always be a huge number of people who prefer Android and Windows to the Apple operating systems. Just like there will always be a large number of people who love Apple and who would never change because they love the simplicity, ease of use and customer support that Apple offers. To engage in these kinds of debates is about as useful as arguing which religion is better.

    Setting aside all the people how get a free iPhone with their mobile contract, people are more than happy to pay a premium for top line iPhones and memory upgrades because it represents an extra $10-15 a month for to enhance their lives every day for a period of two years.

    People check their smart phone hundreds of times per day:

    On top of that, people use their smart phone to make calls, do research, take photos, play games, etc.

    When you use something on such a repetitive basis, a small feature that makes your life easier and saves time is worth not hundreds but thousands of dollars.

    It's that simple. The number of Apple users continues to increase on an absolute basis, and that's never going to change because Mr. Blair wants to argue that consumer behavior is the same toward an OS as it is to a brand of toilet paper.

    And as long as that user base continues to grow, Apple revenues will continue to grow, completely refuting MB's valuation projections.
    Jun 9, 2014. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock Price Likely To Peak Before Long [View article]
    "I like to think of myself as "smart money," although my dismal track record on betting against Apple suggests that at least in this case I am anything but."

    Got to give you props for being honest. May you continue to be anything but for a long, long time with respect to Apple.

    People have such a short memory, I wouldn't be surprised to hear people say "wow, Apple has come down from $500+, better pick up some shares!" No one would ever believe Apple could hit $1000, but they won't think twice about the 7 for 1 shares hitting $200.
    May 27, 2014. 09:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What Do The Bears Say Now? [View article]
    To paraphrase a recent pop song, "Ouch... Ouch, Ouch, Ouch, Ouch... What does the bear say?"
    Apr 24, 2014. 01:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to raise more debt for cash returns; Cook open to big acquisitions [View news story]
    Roughly half of all iPhone buyers and 2/3 of iPad buyers were new customers.

    This is a mind boggling number. Assuming these people had phones and tablets previously, does this mean Apple is taking away market share from Samsung?
    Apr 23, 2014. 07:41 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7% AH; iPhone strength provides a lift to margins [View news story]
    Could this be the crack in the dike?

    After Google's split and earnings miss, will the momentum money move back toward Apple?

    Will the business media and Wall Street finally jump back on the bandwagon?

    Does this spell the end for Samsung?

    Will Steve Jobs rise from the dead and say "I told you so"?

    Don't you hate provocative questions that allow the writer to make up the most ridiculous sh*t possible to create unnecessary controversy and hide behind the question mark?

    Enjoy the day, Apple. Money talks and bearish*t walks!
    Apr 23, 2014. 05:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google erases much of earnings-inspired loss as sell-side defends [View news story]
    Using all of the economic arguments that so called experts have been throwing around for years, here's an interesting little tech stock Mad Lb:

    1. ___________ has missed earnings expectations _ times out of the last __ quarters (though not by much). Without question, the rate of earnings grow is slowing down

    2. ______________ is #_ at current market valuation at about $___B, compared to ______________ at $___B and _______________ at $___B. If ______________ grows to #1, the stock price would be $____, which is only $17 more than its 1 year target date. Won't the big number theory that dragged down ______________ apply to __________________ in the near future?

    3. ________________'s core business of ___________________ is the only place where they have demonstrated the ability to make a profit. While they are the dominant _____________________, _________________s could be reaching the point of saturation, and at that point revenue margins will start to shrink. Won't that signal the end of ______________'s days as a growth company?

    4. Just like ____________, ______________ and _____________ lost their position of market dominance, why would we assume that ________________'s technology won't be replaced by another company or a completely new technology? Currently, _________________ professionals all say that competitor ___________________ nets the highest sales conversion of any company that does _________________. There are other technological advances that may yield new forms of ____________________ that are even more powerful than that of ___________________.

    5. _______________ is a one-trick pony. Even though they dominate the field of ______________, those revenues will eventually run out. They've haven't hit another home run in __ years. Does this signal the end of their run as an innovative company?
    Apr 17, 2014. 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment