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cm1701

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  • Knightsbridge Part 1: The Capesize Market [View article]
    Thank you. Excellent article.Looking forward to part 2.

    An aside-

    As it is not strictly a Capesize carrier, $SBLK is less a pure Cape play and may add a bit of diversification for those interested in the Dry Bulk space- Of note- Its recent purchase of Ocean Bulkers, and its stock performance when compared to peers (Diana, etc)

    Also, wasn't sure if the significantly increased need in India for Coking Coal was included in the 4% worldwide increase projection.
    Jun 23 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Option Strategy: Exploiting Earnings - Associated Rising Volatility [View article]
    Funny, I was talking with my wife about the idea using volatility to select options before earnings and not really caring about the actual earnings number by timing my exit before earnings/call. Two days later I found your article. I know this is from a while back but it's still relevant and helpful- will also seek out your other work.

    Not sure about the necessity of the strangle, if one finds stock(s) that have historically had earnings surprises to the upside, one could chance a slight out of the money call. However, I suppose those underlying stocks would have a lower volatility (and as a result a lower % gain)?
    May 3 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Ethanol: 'We've Only Just Begun' [View article]
    Thanks for the great Article-

    Quick nitpick- MTBE was used an an oxygenate to reduce (among other things) Carbon Monoxide (Smog component) not Carbon.
    Apr 1 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    @Purple_K

    Why does every damned thing have to be political? What does this have to do with Obama? Ballard and others have been around forever- And the Hydrogen Highway (fuel cells in cars) got traction with Bush and Schwarzenegger.

    Facts matter.

    As for Musk-
    Buying the Musk stocks made sense for a while, at these levels, perhaps not. Again, nothing to do with anything here. Completely different markets/verticals.

    Nothing to do with this discussion.

    If you actually care about these things, and are not simply a Fox News troll,
    then consider the following example-

    The Cloud App paradigm (formerly called SAAS) is now the hot thing, after 10-15 years in the doghouse. Good tech at times needs a catalyst (in SAAS' case it was Google, mobile and faster/cheaper broadband, etc)

    Perhaps- and I say perhaps- The Fuel Cell may have found its niche and can begin to build a base after 10+ years of customer trial/acceptance.

    Perhaps the Fuel Cell stock prices have indeed gone up too quickly over the past weeks- however the recent trajectory has nothing to do with the inherent promise (or no) of any of these fuel cell players.

    Be agnostic- Pick stocks based on a given company's future- NOT your personal belief system. For my part these stocks seem a bit frothy (for now) I've therefore chosen to go sideways and look at similar alternate tech that may have been beaten down.

    My pick is AES. (Similar to some $FCEL applications)

    There are others.

    Good luck to all.
    Mar 11 11:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    @Doewap

    Humph. On behalf of all forward thinking, progressive GenXers born in the late 60's (who fought the Boomers and Silent Generation on the dangers of fossil fuels) I resemble that remark.
    Mar 9 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    Rolls Royce = Yugo... ?

    Not sure who that was directed to. As for me, I am agnostic on Plug Power, Ballard, and FCEL until I learn more. I do very much like the idea/promise of Fuel Cells.
    Mar 9 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    @CleanEnergy123

    I am thinking of dabbling in $FCEL (rather dangerous on/near earnings day). I am impressed with what they do with Nat Gas transport efficiency- using fuel cells to heat gas for transport at lower cost to utilities. Given its recent acquisition-and heightened focus on solid oxide- it seems as if FCEL is in several niches now.

    Thoughts on buying at these levels?

    Closer to topic:

    As far as the overall thread/theme here - How long for a market to actually develop for a new concept- Anyone remember 10 or more years ago all the firms that marketed "SAAS"? (Software as a service) Wasn't until tablets and mobile came along that we realized the value of the cloud and operations software that resided elsewhere. SAAS was always cheaper- it's simply that mobile enabled the disruption. You don't need always the Excel/Word/Access- but what a bonus to have the data- on whatever device you may be using.

    There is a time for every good /disruptive tech, and one must pick the proper time to invest, pick the well managed and well funded player(s) and the proper stock price based on potential future profits - once a sound customer base is identified- and business operations costs are made stable.

    I would suggest that one should examine the details of Walmart's recent order for Plug Power units to determine if it's an indicator of a safe entry point.
    Mar 8 09:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks Are Going Down By The Head [View article]
    Thanks- got it.
    Jan 22 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks Are Going Down By The Head [View article]
    I'll end this mini thread with this: One of use should definitely write something.

    I'm pretty happy bout the continued strength in Aluminum (AA. NOR, CENX) - and damn if you weren't right on the money 'bout Frontline today.

    Could not find an entry point for FRO today, but did pick up some GLNG at today's low.

    Saw this which reflects your optimism :

    http://bit.ly/LCvn0y

    Cheers. Enjoy the week- thanks again for the FRO heads up.
    Jan 21 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks Are Going Down By The Head [View article]
    Actually, Jim Beggs (A former Nasa Admin) had triskaidekaphobia!.

    Some other light NASA factoids for the weekend here as well:

    http://bit.ly/1dGoJ3U

    I respect your keeping mum on the mission /insider specifics. Nice that there are folks out there that are true to their word.

    Fredriksen- At first I thought you meant his Salmon company :-)
    I assume you're talkin' LNG? GLNG /GMLP are now each on my radar.

    Thanks much.

    One for you- For the past several weeks I'd been thinking Aluminum might be a thing for 2014 (a year of an actual worldwide sustained recovery? and tightening car/truck fuel economy standards). My pick is NOR. Others (even AA!) seeing some strength here as well.
    Jan 18 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks Are Going Down By The Head [View article]
    Well, it's off topic, but you'll get the Friday prize if you remember why the shuttle mission numbering/letter system was so wacky in the 80's. The reason is almost as silly as the title of this article.

    On Topic- I am actually considering writing a positive article about the return of shipping, and how to play the various markets/ Bulk/Container/Oil, etc.

    If I went negative, I'd need a link bait/histrionic title :"Don't let container ships box you in!" or "Don't fill up on tanker stocks"

    The Macro view: Even the Aluminum companies are rallying. 2014 may be a year for a little optimism for the basics.
    Jan 17 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shippers see early strength as dry bulk rates show year's first gain [View news story]
    Sorry, My error- the Cramer fav might be Diana Shipping DSX not Diana Container Ships DCIX. Bulk shipping and container shipping are somewhat different and have different cycles/markets.

    Keep in mind Maersk has moved away from a focus on Container shipping- not sure if they've changes positions since this late 2012 article:

    http://on.ft.com/K6Rw6s

    Be careful here.
    Jan 16 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shippers see early strength as dry bulk rates show year's first gain [View news story]
    Watch $SBLK. Another good % up move today. I am long on this particular well managed bulk shipper. Good luck to you! By the way, Jim Cramer likes DCIX, so perhaps that's a good thing.
    Jan 16 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks Are Going Down By The Head [View article]
    @sts 66 (also the name/# of a successful NASA shuttle mission)


    Amen, brother.

    I held and am all the happier for it.

    $SBLK up another ~ 5+% today (on a somewhat down day).

    Is every day going to be like this?

    Surely not- but having the courage to hang on to a great stock (in the face of a bit of BDI seasonality) means long term wins. Timing this stuff is really difficult- variables include so much these days- Chinese Purchasing manager plans for 2014 and beyond- potential trouble in ore and coal ports due either to weather or political unrest, etc.

    I am not part of the organization, but I am a big fan of "The Market Realist" and its great ongoing analysis of the marine shipping environment from an investor standpoint.
    Jan 16 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shippers see early strength as dry bulk rates show year's first gain [View news story]
    I am long $SBLK for a variety of good reasons... I encourage anyone that's interested in the DryBulk stocks to do some due diligence on this one- New Fuel efficient ships, an improving balance sheet, and Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital still holds shares. I am betting on slow and steady growth for this particular shipper, and I buy on any BDI weakness (such as we had at the start of the year).
    Jan 15 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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