SolarCity Shares Have Plenty More Upside After Goldman Sachs Deal [View article]
Doesn't matter. You are fooling yourself if you don't think there's going to be some big time selling at lockup expy given insiders are already up over 400% from their initial investment. The low float has helped fuel the short squeeze, but once lockup expires the float won't be so low anymore. Just look at not only TSLA, but also LNKD, MOTR, IMPV, FIO, TRLA, etc. All of these fell 20-30% from their highs by the time lockup expiration hit. SCTY will likely revisit near 30 by June 11.
SolarCity Shares Have Plenty More Upside After Goldman Sachs Deal [View article]
Not sure why you're recommending people buy now at such a high valuation AND ahead of a massive lockup expiration coming June 11th. People should wait until AFTER the lockup expiration before considering buying this. TSLA itself had a massive drop on its lockup expiration back in 2011.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
EXP, you claim that "hopefully they'll find a strong buyer." What exactly are they going to buy? Takeda owns the rights to the drug and half the patents. The company does not have assets that are of value to anyone. The company has a half billion dollar deficit and their liabilities exceed their assets. The ONLY hope the company has is with the royalty agreement with Takeda, and that is dependent on Takeda finding a very fast solution, getting the drug back on the market quickly, and successfully convincing patients/doctors to prescribe the drug which now has a negative cloud over it. This is HIGHLY improbable. Even examples of drug recalls where the drug made it back to the market, it was an extremely long time (i.e., a year or more). The more likely scenario is that the drug never makes it back to market, or if it does, it would be too far down the road for AFFY in its current form to survive. It would be a restructured AFFY, with new shares and the old shares cancelled like what happened with GM. Thus, any current holders would find their shares worthless.
Your claims of 90% institutional ownership are based on old data. A stock that is 90% instutionally owned does not fall from $15 to $1 on just retail selling; that is institutions unloading as well.
You give other examples of "buying the fear", but AFFY is a quite different example from the others you mention. The others you mention actually had a legitimate chance of recovery. AFFY's chances of recovery are minute by comparison.
You also try to spin the acceleration of the termination of the CEO as somehow a positive. It seems to me that, unless the company actually flat out says it's filing for bankruptcy, you will spin any bad news as a positive somehow. This is defined as delusion. All of the actions of the company are broadcasting that they are ceasing operations...termination of all employees, website reduced to bare bones, SEC filings declaring a going concern, etc, etc, etc. If it walks like bankruptcy, talks like bankruptcy, and looks like bankruptcy, it's likely headed for bankruptcy.
You also claim the CEO "overreacted." The CEO has more information than you do...much more information. Perhaps the CEO reacted appropriately and you are simply failing to see it for what it is...a company that knows it cannot survive now and is winding down its operations.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Expstocktrader, your understanding of medical studies and statistical power seems to be limited. The EMERALD studies are statistically underpowered to detect more rare adverse events such as the anaphylactic events experienced with OMONTYS. This is not the first time (and won't be the last time) where a drug has been determined to be safe in initial underpowered trials, only to have to be pulled once released on the market and the drug has administered to a much larger sample of people, revealing adverse events that could not be detected in initial trials.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Saying a "possibility exists" is like the "so you're telling me there's a chance" line in the movie Dumb & Dumber. The possibility of the drug making it back to the market any time soon is so, so remote that it amazes me that anyone would be willing to be their money on that. The investigation could take years, and if Takeda wants to get the drug back on the market, the FDA likely would require another long-term study to prove that the drug is safe. AFFY does not have the finances to last that long. Come June they will only be a shell anyway...all of the executives and employees will be gone. Who is going to run the company? Robots?
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
I will also note that the CSO did NOT suggest they intend to redistribute Omontys. All they said is that they are working with the FDA on the issue, and stated they "can't say" whether the drug will ever make it back to the market.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
WalktheTalk, you don't seem to understand the drug world very well. The fact is, there are already drugs out there that do the same thing as Omontys that have superior safety records. The FDA will not allow a drug on the market that does not have superior efficacy if its safety record is in question as compared to drugs that are already available. Even if the FDA allowed redistribution of the product, it would likely require a new long-term study from Takeda to demonstrate safety. AFFY does not have the financial position to last that long. And even if the product gets redistributed, physicians will be too scared to use it, and suppliers will be to scared to supply it, given the safety concerns and the fact that there are already drugs they can use that don't have the same safety concerns. Thus, they will not be able to get significant market share.
This company really has no choice other than to eventually file for bankruptcy. There will be no buyout because without the rights to Omontys AFFY doesn't have any assets that would be of interest to anyone. And even if AFFY did, it would be smarter for them to simply let AFFY go bankrupt and then get the assets in a fire sale.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Not sure where you're getting this idea that the restructuring firm, the Brenner Group, doesn't expect any BK. BK is one of the Brenner group's specialties:
A company does not hire the Brenner group unless they are truly winding down and going out of business.
And the odds of the FDA allowing redistribution of Omontys are very low, given that the risks outweigh the benefits and that Omontys's competitors offer better safety profiles.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Stating that there is a "chance" of reinstatement is like the "So you're telling me there's a chance" line from the movie Dumb and Dumber. Yes, there's a chance, but it is extremely tiny.
First, a recall investigation can take years and AFFY doesn't have the finances to last that long.
Second, even if a recall investigation is successful in getting the drug reinstated, the odds of physicians willing to use the drug is extremely low, given that physicians have alternatives with already proven safety records. Why would physicians risk it, given the drug is only marginally cheaper than the alternatives anyway? That's also not to mention getting suppliers to even carry the drug. Your comparisons to Tysabri are not valid, because that drug had significantly superior efficacy to anything else available on the market, which made the risk acceptable. OMONTYS does not have such superior efficacy to available alternatives, so there is no reason to try to market it given that the alternatives have established safety records.
Third, death by anaphylactic reaction within minutes of administration of the first dose is a serious problem, even if the percentage is low.
Bankruptcy is actually the highest probability scenario now...such a high probability that the risk reward for holding this stock long is absolutely terrible.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Dude, it says it right in the line you commented on:
"we commenced a process to notify substantially all of the remaining 25% of our workforce of estimated dates of separation and we engaged an experienced restructuring firm. "
They are laying off the rest of the workforce. This company is dead. Anyone who is holding this long hoping for something is extremely foolish.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
So the 10Q is out and the company announced that it's laying off the remaining 25% of its workforce. Also liabilities greater than assets and an accumulated deficit of a half billion. Bankruptcy is a 99.5% likelihood at this point.
Metal Stocks With Short Squeeze Potential [View article]
GOFF is a total compensated pump and dump by APS. Look at their past tickers and how they all had massive crashes. Can't believe you even mention it here. Unless you are a paid pumper yourself.
5 Stocks With Recent IPOs That Are A Great Deal Right Now [View article]
Not sure how GWRE is a "great deal" when it's trading at a P/E of well over 100, and has a large looming lockup expiration with IPO holders up over 100% on their investment
4 More IPOs With Glowing Fundamentals [View article]
Also not sure where you're getting the info that 99% of the float is held by 91 mutual funds. I can't find such information anywhere. That would imply that only 78,000 shares are owned by individual investors and traders. I'm having trouble believing that.
SolarCity Shares Have Plenty More Upside After Goldman Sachs Deal [View article]
SolarCity Shares Have Plenty More Upside After Goldman Sachs Deal [View article]
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Your claims of 90% institutional ownership are based on old data. A stock that is 90% instutionally owned does not fall from $15 to $1 on just retail selling; that is institutions unloading as well.
You give other examples of "buying the fear", but AFFY is a quite different example from the others you mention. The others you mention actually had a legitimate chance of recovery. AFFY's chances of recovery are minute by comparison.
You also try to spin the acceleration of the termination of the CEO as somehow a positive. It seems to me that, unless the company actually flat out says it's filing for bankruptcy, you will spin any bad news as a positive somehow. This is defined as delusion. All of the actions of the company are broadcasting that they are ceasing operations...termination of all employees, website reduced to bare bones, SEC filings declaring a going concern, etc, etc, etc. If it walks like bankruptcy, talks like bankruptcy, and looks like bankruptcy, it's likely headed for bankruptcy.
You also claim the CEO "overreacted." The CEO has more information than you do...much more information. Perhaps the CEO reacted appropriately and you are simply failing to see it for what it is...a company that knows it cannot survive now and is winding down its operations.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
This company really has no choice other than to eventually file for bankruptcy. There will be no buyout because without the rights to Omontys AFFY doesn't have any assets that would be of interest to anyone. And even if AFFY did, it would be smarter for them to simply let AFFY go bankrupt and then get the assets in a fire sale.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
http://bit.ly/12pnhLk
A company does not hire the Brenner group unless they are truly winding down and going out of business.
And the odds of the FDA allowing redistribution of Omontys are very low, given that the risks outweigh the benefits and that Omontys's competitors offer better safety profiles.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
First, a recall investigation can take years and AFFY doesn't have the finances to last that long.
Second, even if a recall investigation is successful in getting the drug reinstated, the odds of physicians willing to use the drug is extremely low, given that physicians have alternatives with already proven safety records. Why would physicians risk it, given the drug is only marginally cheaper than the alternatives anyway? That's also not to mention getting suppliers to even carry the drug. Your comparisons to Tysabri are not valid, because that drug had significantly superior efficacy to anything else available on the market, which made the risk acceptable. OMONTYS does not have such superior efficacy to available alternatives, so there is no reason to try to market it given that the alternatives have established safety records.
Third, death by anaphylactic reaction within minutes of administration of the first dose is a serious problem, even if the percentage is low.
Bankruptcy is actually the highest probability scenario now...such a high probability that the risk reward for holding this stock long is absolutely terrible.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
"we commenced a process to notify substantially all of the remaining 25% of our workforce of estimated dates of separation and we engaged an experienced restructuring firm. "
They are laying off the rest of the workforce. This company is dead. Anyone who is holding this long hoping for something is extremely foolish.
Affymax Could Be The Best Reversal Play For 2013 [View article]
Nice job giving this stock one last pump job.
Metal Stocks With Short Squeeze Potential [View article]
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4 More IPOs With Glowing Fundamentals [View article]
4 More IPOs With Glowing Fundamentals [View article]