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User7766461

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  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    I can tell you, from real experience, that in extreme cases, as in this case, brick and mortar retailers do indeed refuse to sell vendors' product if the vendor in question does not meet the requirements of that retailer. It is just rarely, if ever, this high profile.
    Aug 11 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney brushes aside Amazon DVD tactic [View news story]
    "No matter what happens AMZN is sure to lose more money."

    What responsible input from a contributor with 5K followers. Following your train of thought... based on the quality of your comments here, which I would rate: Garbage, no matter what happens in the future Paulo Santos is sure to spew more garbage.

    What is sad is that anyone would lean on someone for financial insight who spews such nonsense on a whim with utter disregard for the impact of that propaganda on their sheep.

    Thanks again for contributing.
    Aug 11 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    First off... How does Amazon compete with Netflix, but Walmart doesn't exactly, in this specific instance of course?

    Secondly, a customer searching for a specific title will likely find that title somewhere. I agree.

    "As soon as people realized that, they would stop shopping for videos at Walmart."

    I think you mean as soon as "Disney Customers" (which i would argue are not the majority, unless you contend that Disney holds 50% share in Video) realized that, and not "people" because not all customers care about Disney. If i never look for Disney titles, whether or not my store of choice carries them is irrelevant. I don't stop shopping because my niece cant find her DVD's at my store...

    Now, on who needs who more...

    A simple example... Let's say Wal-Mart is planning a DVD promotion, Wal-Mart can choose a Sony Pictures DVD or a Disney DVD to place on a rack near their check stands, an impulse items dream location... Lets also assume that the Disney title in question was twice as popular than the Sony Pictures new release, and that all sales off the rack are incremental to what they would sell off their regular shelf space. If Wal-Mart promotes the Sony Pictures DVD they will sell $20M from said rack, if they sell the Disney DVD they will sell $40M from that rack. If Wal-Mart chooses to promote Sony Pictures, they miss out on $20M in sales, however Disney misses out on $40M. Clearly it is in both Wal-Mart and Disney's best interest to cooperate, but who needs who more?

    This is the same dynamic that is happening at Amazon, although more extreme.

    I cant argue with your point that the average Amazon customer may care more about the availability of Disney DVD's than the average Wal-Mart customer, but claiming Amazon needs Disney more than Disney needs access to Amazon's 240M customers, without knowing the dynamics of Amazon's customer base is quite a stretch.

    As someone who deals with this dynamic regularly as a financial analyst for a brick and mortar retailer, I can tell you, with confidence, that you are giving Disney and other Suppliers by extension, far too much credit in their negotiating power.
    Aug 11 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney brushes aside Amazon DVD tactic [View news story]
    I don't think you understand how retail works, and what power a retailer holds in this type of negotiation.

    The retailer's power in supplier negotiations is derived from their customer traffic. This is the case whether it is a brick and mortar Wal-Mart or an Amazon.com.

    Again, we can categorize potential Disney DVD customers who shop Amazon into 3 buckets.

    1). Customers who want a specific Disney DVD, like you mention above. These customers will likely find that DVD without issue whether or not it is available on Amazon. This customer's purchase is at risk for Amazon and not at risk for Disney.

    2). Customers shopping Amazon who want a DVD, but not sure which one. It could be for personal use, it could be for a gift, etc... These customers will likely find a DVD without issue whether or not Disney is available on Amazon or not. These customers' purchases are at risk for Disney, not Amazon.

    3). Customers shopping Amazon, not with the intent of buying a DVD, who end up making a DVD purchase from Amazon's shelves on impulse. These customers' purchases are at risk for Disney and likely, though probably to a much lesser extent, Amazon as well.

    We as outsiders, have no clue how much of Disney's business comes from those 3 customer types. Amazon, however, does have a clue, and they are holding some cards in this game and they know the value of those cards. Whether they are bluffing, or they know they hold a stronger bargaining position, they clearly believe the potential rewards outweigh the risks of such a move. Discounting Amazon's bargaining power in this situation is careless and irresponsible.
    Aug 11 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    Dank, I think you are overlooking the value of selling a product on the virtual shelves of a website with around 250M active users.

    A Disney.com will only sell DVD's to customers looking for Disney DVD's, while Amazon.com can sell Disney DVD's to customers looking for movies in general or even competing titles as well as customers who came looking for Disney DVDs and in some cases sell DVD's to customers who were not even initially shopping for DVDs.

    If things were as easy as you suggest, amazon would have zero product to sell, aside from fire phones and tablets.

    People treat Amazon as if it is so different from a brick and mortar retailer. If it was Wal-Mart blocking Disney new releases from their brick and mortar stores would you claim Disney should just remove the 800 lb. Wal-Mart gorilla from the equation and find alternate avenues for selling product in that situation as well? Because it is virtually the same thing, however it seems that the average investor seems to think Amazon holds no cards here...
    Aug 11 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    While i disagree, i appreciate your viewpoint. One thing I am sure we both can agree on is this will be entertaining to watch unfold. Happy Investing.
    Aug 11 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney brushes aside Amazon DVD tactic [View news story]
    Media analysts are quick to note anything that pops into their heads...

    I do agree that Disney has significant leverage in these negotiations. That said, the media's claim that Amazon's leverage is "not that great" should be taken with a grain of salt. Sure, everyone who is searching specifically for "Captain America: Winter Soldier" will likely have no problem finding it somewhere (this is Disney's leverage) but what about all the would-be impulse purchasers of the title who may only purchase the movie as they were browsing for something else on Amazon? What about consumers looking for a video in general and not for that specific title, say for a gift, and they plan on making that purchase on Amazon... Do you not think those customers will just pick up an alternative? Who is to say they wouldn't just pick up Spiderman 2 from Amazon for their hypothetical nephews birthday instead? This is the leverage Amazon has and we (or the Media) have no clue what proportion of amazon's new release sales are planned versus impulse purchases, but guess who does know... (A hint, it is the guys who halted new release sales)

    This is not a zero sum game, and I can say with confidence that Amazon has a much better understanding of the dynamics of how their customers shop, and what the impact of their strategy will be than the "media".
    Aug 11 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    I'm sorry, but i don't think you understand my comment. At no point did I opine or predict the result of the negotiations. My guess is there will be some compromise at some point.

    All I am saying is that if Amazon wants to put pressure on Disney, or other vendors in this way, that decision is purely their own. Just because Disney does not give in, does not mean that Amazon will, and vise versa, but future policy in regards to how Amazon treats Disney will be determined by Amazon, not Disney.

    I do agree that Disney has significant leverage in these negotiations. That said, claiming that Amazon dropping Disney new releases from Amazon.com will have "no effect on Disney" is outright silly. Sure, everyone who is searching specifically for "Captain America: Winter Soldier" will likely have no problem finding it somewhere, but what about all the would-be impulse purchasers of the DVD who may only purchase the title as they were browsing for something else on Amazon? What about consumers looking for a video in general and not for that specific title, say for a gift, and they plan on making that purchase on Amazon... Do you not think those customers will just pick up an alternative? Who is to say they wouldn't just pick up Spiderman 2 from Amazon for their hypothetical nephews birthday instead?

    This is not a zero sum game.

    I'm not disputing that Amazon will hurt as well, but your wild claim is like saying that if Kroger stopped selling kellogg's cereal it would have zero effect on Kellogg's, because there are plenty of other grocers that sell Kellogg's branded cereal. Sure, if I only eat rice crispies i will not have an issue finding them outside of a Kroger, but if i'm a loyal kroger shopper, and i just need a breakfast cereal, I will have no problem finding an alternative at Kroger.

    This is the power in the hands of the retailer. If the retailer/vendor power dynamic worked as you seem to suggest we would all be paying significantly more for goods, or all retailers would be broke.
    Aug 11 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    "Disney is in the driver's seat on this one."

    I'm not sure they are... If anyone is in the driver's seat (the car being amazon's future policy in regards to Disney) it is Amazon and Amazon's customer base, and the question is can Amazon fight it's vendors so aggressively without alienating those customers.

    This same dynamic occurs every day in the retail business. Retailers constantly press their suppliers for lower cost of goods or higher incentives while said vendors argue for the value of their brand until a resolution is reached. The difference is that it rarely gets this level of media attention, which is due to the profiles/scales of both companies.
    Aug 11 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    A difference in investment thesis between Wal-Mart and Amazon is that Wal-mart is a more profitable business. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the comparison i mention.

    Also, your metaphor doesn't make sense. If Disney were a "rock" as you put it, then you imply that Disney's profit margins are so slim that Amazon could not squeeze any further profits out of them. However, that is not the case.
    Aug 11 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    That is like saying Wal-Mart needs Disney more than Disney needs Wal-Mart, which is a bit of a stretch wouldn't you agree?

    I'm not even sure i would buy the statement that Wal-Mart's video department needs Disney more than Disney needs Wal-Mart's video department. Much less the total store.
    Aug 11 09:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon.com Earnings Estimates Revisions [View article]
    "But India should be somewhat irrelevant over the long term. India is not a China."

    It only has 92% of the population of China, 4X the size of the US... completely irrelevant
    Jul 30 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple updates MacBook Pros, cuts prices [View news story]
    A windows 8 touch notebook, smart phone, and tablet for less than 2500?? Yikes!

    I can buy 2000 tablets of paper and 400 pencils and a calculator for the same price as those items. They may not be able to accomplish everything your items can accomplish, but i'll be able to cover more surface area with them...
    Jul 29 11:10 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Never Buy BlackBerry [View article]
    I dont think you understand how jeopardy works...
    Jul 28 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Perma Bears Will Cost You Money If You Listen To Them [View article]
    Wal-Mart has a 32 year head start on Amazon and Amazon is growing its sales at 20% per year while wal mart is seeing Like Store sales growth wither away. Lets revisit this comparison in 10 years.
    Jul 28 09:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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