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  • Chipotle's Same-Store Sales Growth Is Worse - Much Worse - Than You Think [View article]
    I love a good, childish, author's reply in the afternoon.

    First of all, taste is subjective, but their comp store growth as well as restaurant reviews would suggest "kids" don't find their food bland.

    Secondly, a typical Chipotle burrito is closer to 1000 calories than 2000, as you suggest.

    Suggestions... maybe check your emotion at the door and use the power of google before making silly statements. Oh, and woo-sah.
    Feb 4, 2015. 04:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    Wasn't it was Oppenheimer under Cook who reined in the guidance? The guides prior to that were still sandbagged.

    If i were taking over as CFO of one of the largest corporations in the world i would guide conservative for a while also, wouldn't you? :)
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel declares $0.24 dividend [View news story]
    Ann. Div Yield $ / Cost $
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense -26.2% AH on FQ2 miss, guidance, GM drop [View news story]
    Motley Fool
    Oct 28, 2014. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense -26.2% AH on FQ2 miss, guidance, GM drop [View news story]
    MF has been pumping the crap out of this one this year.
    Oct 28, 2014. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon launches $39 Fire TV Stick [View news story]
    Thanks for the laugh.
    Oct 27, 2014. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Thanks for the thoughtful discussion!
    Oct 24, 2014. 12:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    My original point was that I find it very difficult to value the company without knowing what the Capex is being spent on.

    If the capex is being spent to grow the business versus run the business, then Amazon could at some point drop the capex back to say the sub 1-2% of sales it was running from 2006-2009, compared to the 4-5% its run over the last 12 months, and starts filling up the capacity it has been creating FCF would spike significantly (from 1.5% or so to maybe 5% or revenue). If that happened over the last 12 months amazon would have generated 2.5-3bn more in cash. If Amazon settles into a growth rate of 15% for the next 5 years, and Capex drops back to 1.5%, Amazon could generate 170B in revenues in 2019 and 8.5B in FCF at 5% of revenues, that assumes they gain no operating leverage over that time period, or reinvest it in price/margin, etc. That could move earnings from basically 0 to 7.5B or so in 2019, which at today's share count would be $16 or so per share? attach a 30 multiple and you're at 480 per share, or 70% higher than today's price after hours, +14% per year or so. Discount for risk and maybe you are near fair value today. I think $60 is ridiculous, but that's my opinion.

    That is a terrible oversimplification and obviously a lot of if's, but that's my point, unfortunately knowing what we know about the details of Bezos' spending, investors are left speculating.
    Oct 23, 2014. 11:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    "Any company that takes longer than 20 years to grow and that has to use stock to pay salaries is a decent deal at $20 per share, and we can debate if it's worth $60 per share."

    I'm struggling to make sense of any of this sentence. First of all are you suggesting that there is a finite number of years it takes a company to grow? Any company who plans for growth beyond year 20 is only worth $20 per share? What does that mean? I guess short Apple since they plan for growth in 2015 and have a stock price of more than 20-60$.

    Or are you referring specifically to Amazon, at their current level of shares outstanding, when you mention 20-60$?

    If so, are you suggesting that a company who generated nearly $6B in operating cash flow, $1B in free cash flow, and is growing revenue around 20% YOY over the last 12 months is only worth $9B? At the end of last quarter the company had total cash of $8B with Total debts of $3B.

    Let me reiterate...So you think a business that generates $1B per year in FCF, is growing revenue around 20% per year, that holds $5B in cash net of debts, is worth $9B?

    Do you own any businesses that you would like to sell? Because I'll buy them all if that is how you value them.
    Oct 23, 2014. 08:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    That is exactly the key question!.. sort of. And the one I was attempting to pose above, except I don't know if we have enough information to call the investments unwise yet, as the company continues to post 20% revenue growth (the real concern for me in this announcement, initially, is the low revenue projected next quarter).

    Unfortunately Amazon doesn't like to talk about what exactly they are spending that capital on. If it is all being spent on projects like their phone (as it stands today) I would run for the hills. But if it is being spent on expanding capacity/distribution, expanding media content, profitable new ventures, and more efficient facilities which will support future growth and Opex improvements then maybe they are doing the right thing for the business.

    My guess is Mr Bezos will continue to spend away until they lose significant investor confidence and the stock price tanks, in which case he cuts capex and generates profits until that confidence is restored, or until he feels like there is no more opportunity for expansion (which may be a long time yet, with maybe just 1-2% share of the entire US retail market?).
    Oct 23, 2014. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Or do your own due diligence, understand your individual investment strategy, and make sound investment decisions and avoid the iceberg. Whatever works..
    Oct 23, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    If you are implying they are not making profit on the items or services they are selling, you are misinformed. They have maintained fairly consistent OCF as a percent of revenue for the last 10 years or so. The reason they post 0 to negative net income is they turn around and spend all of that cash in Capex.

    So technically your comment should read "Cant keep burning through all that cash to drive revenue. This 'king' has no more cloths!"
    Oct 23, 2014. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    You can't fairly value AMZN on PE. Whether you think the company is a great investment, or a poor one, you should at least accept the fact that you can't value a company that is investing the majority of their Operating Cash Flow in Capex on their earnings. The company is intentionally managing to zero profits while they invest in future (potential?) earnings.

    The real question you should be asking as a potential investor is "when or even if this investment will ever pay off".

    If you think the answer is no, then don't invest. However, evaluating this company on a PE basis understanding Amazon/Bezos' long term strategy of continual investment in the business is pretty pointless, and the resulting conclusions drawn are obvious. And the emotion towards a company/stock in the comments section is absolutely absurd.

    I am long AAPL and respect the company as you seem to, and think 2015 is going to be a spectacular year for the company (and hopefully the stock price!). But as an investor we should realize that the two company's business models and strategies are very different.

    Again, AMZN aside, analyzing ALL businesses on a P/E basis (or any single metric for that matter... See David Trainer's ridiculous analysis of Apple in 2013, price target $240 pre-split, purely on an ROIC analysis) could lead one to miss out on some great opportunities (or in Trainer's case, to make a complete fool of himself, in the eyes of those paying attention).
    Oct 23, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Hoopla Shows We Have Hit Peak Apple [View article]
    "Little mention about the specifics - like who's paying Apple?

    Is the customer, the credit card company's, or the businesses going to give Apple a cut? And for what exactly?"

    If you had actually listened to Tim Cook on the conference call yesterday you would know the answers to those questions.
    Oct 21, 2014. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Hoopla Shows We Have Hit Peak Apple [View article]
    Agreed on Claim Chowder...

    Everybody wants to be the guy who calls an apple top.
    Oct 21, 2014. 04:11 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment