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Toofuzzy

Toofuzzy
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  • No Bubbles Forming On Planet REIT-Dom [View article]
    Brad

    I always like your articles and agree that REITS are not in a bubble.

    But unlike you I think they were and the bubble has now popped.

    1) If a REIT yields 4% now and gradually doubles their dividend over the next few years but the Fed actually raises interest rates over time, the market may demand an 8% dividend and the price will not rise. I got an 8% dividend on WRI in 2009, the stock more than trippled since then and has now pulled back off its recent high. It also never reached the high from before 2009.

    2) Reits pay out 90% of earnings in dividends. In order to grow they either have to sell more stock or bonds. It is difficult to plow earnings back in to the business to grow the business. So most of the return on investment from investing in Reits should come from dividends. If there is an increase in stock price it is probably due more to multiple expansion of price / ffo not an actual FFO / SHARE increase, though I would hope that happens also.

    So my conclusion is that the prices of Reits will decline if , when, and as rates rise if only because most investors think they should.

    My second conclusion is that if inflation is again perceived to be higher than interest rates, Reits will be a better investment / hedge, along with gold, silver, copper, oil, land, timber ( did i forget anything), which have already had their bubble burst.

    Just my uneducated thoughts.
    Jul 6, 2015. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Most Competitive Wealth-Builder ETF Investment [View article]
    In what way do you feel xib is better than ibb ?
    Jun 23, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The Yield On Munis Just Does Not Cut It. [View instapost]
    How do you do three times leverage with margin? I believe that is what you wrote somewhere.
    Jun 20, 2015. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myths And Reality Of Market Timing (And A Solution) [View article]
    With most other methods of timing, you can get wipp sawed if the indicator reverses. With AIM you go in and out gradually and it takes the emotion out of investing.

    Yes you can have a deep diver with an individual stock but you go in knowing how much you are willing to invest / lose. Funds are safer as they are unlikely to go to zero and if one is closed you just role the assets in to another fund.

    AIM gave me the discipline to ride out 2003 and 2008 /2009, having raised my cash levels automatically prior to those events.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myths And Reality Of Market Timing (And A Solution) [View article]
    I use paper and pencil. Has nothing to do with a computer. I sell gradually as a security rises and buy gradually as it drops. Because it is anti momentum investing it is safer with funds but works well with stocks also.
    Jun 19, 2015. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myths And Reality Of Market Timing (And A Solution) [View article]
    The solution is to use AUTOMATIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT.

    Just google it.

    Takes the emotion out of investing.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In American Campus Could Make You Smarter [View article]
    I was questioning the effect on earnings and dividends. I agree that stock price can be effected by externals. If interest rates go up I expect stock prices to go down but not earnings and dividends in this sector at least where I expect demand is fairly inelastic.
    May 26, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In American Campus Could Make You Smarter [View article]
    I wonder why, with a locked in demand for campus housing, the recession affected this subsector of REITS, and why and how the economy will affected going forward.
    May 25, 2015. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Has Curb-Side Appeal, But The Shares Are No Deal [View article]
    How do they buy street level retail without buying the buildings above? I feel like I am missing something in their strategy. Arent they just buying buildings that happen to have street level retail? What is the differentiation that is claimed?
    May 4, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RMT: A Case Of A CEF That's Better Than The Open End Alternative [View article]
    First you are comparing two different funds. You said the top ten holdings are different.

    Second if you are going to compare returns, you should use market returns for the closed end fund not NAV returns and you should at least mention discount to NAV

    Third you should mention the change in NAV discount over the time period compared.

    I was going to suggest comparing Vanguard funds to their ETFs but they are open end funds.
    Apr 30, 2015. 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Long Term Capital Management

    So much for Quants

    I own the whole market split in to segments plus fixed income. I check them once / month and gradually sell as they go up and gradually buy as they go down. I never have a realized loss.
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Dont pick stocks at random. Buy the whole market and fixed income. Rebalance once per year, buying low and selling high automatically.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Oil is a significant part of our economy. I want to own an investment in this segment of the economy. I can not predict what the market will do and I do not care. I sell an ETF gradually as it goes up and buy shares gradually as it goes down. I NEVER have a realized loss.

    It is as simple as that. It can be done with any sector of the market.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do I Smell A Bargain At The Dividend Factory Outlet? [View article]
    Does Tanger own Woodbury Commons in NY State? That place is a gold mine. They run tourist busses to there filled with foreign visitors.
    Apr 7, 2015. 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Up-And-Coming Dream Team REITs [View article]
    Thanks Brad
    Apr 4, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
174 Comments
91 Likes