JeffCohn's Instablog Jeff Cohn is a Venture Consultant to angel and venture investors who have an interest in building technology companies in Southern California. Jeff sources investment opportunities, plays an active business development role and builds teams for VC portfolio companies. Jeff was the Investment Screening Director for the Tech Coast Angels from 1999 - 2008 and has built a deep network of Southern California technology entrepreneurs and seasoned investors. JeffCohn http://seekingalpha.com 10 Reasons Why AT&T Dividend Investors Should Sell Now http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/777255-jeffcohn/166640-10-reasons-why-at-t-dividend-investors-should-sell-now?source=feed 166640
The "Old School" telecom company is not adapting quick enough in a "New School World".  AT&T (NYSE: T) is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings and will likely be disappointing to investors in the short tern and AT&T's dividend could be in jeopardy in the long run.  Here are 10 heavily studied reasons why investors should run for the hills now if they are invested in the stock.  AT&T's 5% annual dividend could evaporate slowly as the "WiFI revolution" is starting to gain momentum.  
1)  The iPhone and iPad 3G have given AT&T a boost in subscriber additions. For example, in Q4 2010 the company added 2.8M customers.   However, 1.5M were connected devices that have lower ARPU (average monthly revenue per user).  This trend is likely to continue as free WiFi will continue to compete with expensive 4G and coming LTE. 2)  WiFi competes with 4G and AT&T doesn't have a compelling reason why users should pay the extra amount for it when iPads are used 95% indoors. 3)  AT&T data caps are killing the iPhone application business.4) Apple stock decline recently is another reason to be concerned about the lack of 3G subscriber growth.5) iPad 2 tablets are not price correctly and the 3G versions should be cheaper than the iPad WiFi.  The 3G iPad should be subsidized and priced at $300 if they want to keep monthly subscribers.  See how to choose iPad 2 data plan.  However, we think most people will want to use the iPad 2 without a data plan. 6)  We have a contrarian view and have lots of evidence to believe the acquisition of T-Mobile is in jeopardy and think Obama will appose the merger.  AT&T's corrupt union has a bogus story to promote the merger.7)  AT&T's advisors are lying to the public about the merger ramifications. 8)  AT&T is not going to be able to raise T-Mobile prices if the merger is approved9)  10 Reasons why T-Mobile customers will leave for Sprint.10)  AT&T and Verizon (VZ) are losing the Net Neutrality battle because open access to data on the Internet will come a Civil Right. ]]> Tue, 19 Apr 2011 19:22:27 -0400
The "Old School" telecom company is not adapting quick enough in a "New School World".  AT&T (NYSE: T) is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings and will likely be disappointing to investors in the short tern and AT&T's dividend could be in jeopardy in the long run.  Here are 10 heavily studied reasons why investors should run for the hills now if they are invested in the stock.  AT&T's 5% annual dividend could evaporate slowly as the "WiFI revolution" is starting to gain momentum.  
1)  The iPhone and iPad 3G have given AT&T a boost in subscriber additions. For example, in Q4 2010 the company added 2.8M customers.   However, 1.5M were connected devices that have lower ARPU (average monthly revenue per user).  This trend is likely to continue as free WiFi will continue to compete with expensive 4G and coming LTE. 2)  WiFi competes with 4G and AT&T doesn't have a compelling reason why users should pay the extra amount for it when iPads are used 95% indoors. 3)  AT&T data caps are killing the iPhone application business.4) Apple stock decline recently is another reason to be concerned about the lack of 3G subscriber growth.5) iPad 2 tablets are not price correctly and the 3G versions should be cheaper than the iPad WiFi.  The 3G iPad should be subsidized and priced at $300 if they want to keep monthly subscribers.  See how to choose iPad 2 data plan.  However, we think most people will want to use the iPad 2 without a data plan. 6)  We have a contrarian view and have lots of evidence to believe the acquisition of T-Mobile is in jeopardy and think Obama will appose the merger.  AT&T's corrupt union has a bogus story to promote the merger.7)  AT&T's advisors are lying to the public about the merger ramifications. 8)  AT&T is not going to be able to raise T-Mobile prices if the merger is approved9)  10 Reasons why T-Mobile customers will leave for Sprint.10)  AT&T and Verizon (VZ) are losing the Net Neutrality battle because open access to data on the Internet will come a Civil Right. ]]> t aapl vz Reasons Why the AT&T & T-Mobile Deal Won't Get Done http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/777255-jeffcohn/152370-reasons-why-the-at-t-t-mobile-deal-won-t-get-done?source=feed 152370 10 Reasons Why AT&T is Bad for T-Mobile Customers
Why is Deutsche Telekom Selling T-Mobile?
Why Cell Phone Tower Stocks Tanked Today
T-Mobile Gets $3B Breakup Fee if AT&T Merger Not Approved
US Wireless Subscribers Pie Chart Post AT&T & T-Mobile Merger]]> Tue, 22 Mar 2011 20:09:43 -0400 10 Reasons Why AT&T is Bad for T-Mobile Customers
Why is Deutsche Telekom Selling T-Mobile?
Why Cell Phone Tower Stocks Tanked Today
T-Mobile Gets $3B Breakup Fee if AT&T Merger Not Approved
US Wireless Subscribers Pie Chart Post AT&T & T-Mobile Merger]]> t s clwr vz amt cci sbac What is Amazon.com Doing Wrong? http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/777255-jeffcohn/133570-what-is-amazon-com-doing-wrong?source=feed 133570
It does not have solid consumer friendly mobile phone strategy.  Does this site about get you excited about buying a phone from them?  Are they missing out on mobile, smartphones and tablets which is in boom times?   Amazon is one of the largest eCommerce communities in the world and could be a powerhouse in mobile phones if they had any balls to get aggressive about provide real consumer value. Amazon Wireless is a half baked site that has very few good offers for  customers switching carriers but none for existing customers.  The site also doesn't tell me squat about the coverage I might receive if I switch carriers or reviews about problems with phones or data speeds.  It also could be a tremendous marketplace for mobile and tablet app reviews for the Android and iPhone but I find nothing.  However, they seem to be afraid of taking an aggressive stance against Verizon and AT&T who continually market 4G bullshit.  Amazon or Best Buy could be one of the few retailers that could clean up the the wireless carrier fraudulent marketing.  Consumer Reports sure sucks at it and we are making an effort with our DeadCellZones.com coverage map. ]]> Thu, 27 Jan 2011 16:32:41 -0500
It does not have solid consumer friendly mobile phone strategy.  Does this site about get you excited about buying a phone from them?  Are they missing out on mobile, smartphones and tablets which is in boom times?   Amazon is one of the largest eCommerce communities in the world and could be a powerhouse in mobile phones if they had any balls to get aggressive about provide real consumer value. Amazon Wireless is a half baked site that has very few good offers for  customers switching carriers but none for existing customers.  The site also doesn't tell me squat about the coverage I might receive if I switch carriers or reviews about problems with phones or data speeds.  It also could be a tremendous marketplace for mobile and tablet app reviews for the Android and iPhone but I find nothing.  However, they seem to be afraid of taking an aggressive stance against Verizon and AT&T who continually market 4G bullshit.  Amazon or Best Buy could be one of the few retailers that could clean up the the wireless carrier fraudulent marketing.  Consumer Reports sure sucks at it and we are making an effort with our DeadCellZones.com coverage map. ]]> amzn Ben Bernanke has Purchased Double D's http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/777255-jeffcohn/111469-ben-bernanke-has-purchased-double-d-s?source=feed 111469  
The Fed has spent most of the last two artificially inflating and deflating the stock market whenever they feel the economy needs a boost or is getting overheated. They know what they do has no direct effect on the economy but its a quick fix and doesn't provide any organic growth. Today, the only weapon the Fed has is the so-called wealth effect by driving the stock market up so people feel wealthier because interest rates are at 0%. The stock market went up 80% in 2009 so investors should be spending 2.4% extra of the entire value of the stock market, which is about two percent of GDP.  Here is a great video explaining the boom and bust cycles and is a warning to all entrepreneurs to stay current with stock and currency markets because it now directly effects you even if you are a small business. Maria Bartiromo sits down with Jeremy Grantham who has made some incredibly good predictions over the last few years.
 
The new $600B of quantitative easing goes into the banking and corporate sector of the economy who is largely sitting on the largest cash balance in business history.  They don't need the money at all and its not the sector of the economy who is going to take our unemployment rate down from 10-15%.  Those who need the stimulus money the most, small business & private investors, can't get it. Seeing a company like General Motors go public again makes me want to puke.  I can think of 100 other companies who deserve to be public companies before GM and that create far more future value, jobs and innovation in our economy.  GM going public is simply a private equity, government money and investment banker ponzi scheme.

I was a apart of one the largest business boom cycles in the late 1990's and there were a lot o great things about that time the US Government, FDIC and Fed have forgotten.  Investors were pouring money into Venture Capital funds that were providing funding to companies who were providing real long term jobs and creating new markets of innovation.  Much of this money came from the Government in the form of FDIC subsidies and they made lots of money for taking this risk.  Once the bubble burst and hedge funds drove the market 80% lower there was no optimism or money left in the VC industry to spark new growth.  The VC industry has shrunk drastically in the last decade and almost 80% of the VC funds not based in Silicon Valley are virtually out of business (aka "the living dead funds").

Capitalism in general is kind of a ponzi scheme but it can be done organically if the IPO market is fair and open.  Capitalism also works when Government regulatory agencies stay out of our way and don't favor big business monopolies.  I think if $100B in stimulus for struggling VC funds this would create another boom of optimism that we need.    The Fed and FDIC should also consider an Emergency Fund to fund to solve overweight population epidemic that is slowing the US economy down.  Here are a few other ways President Obama could help create jobs.

Disclosure: no positions]]> Mon, 15 Nov 2010 17:22:56 -0500  
The Fed has spent most of the last two artificially inflating and deflating the stock market whenever they feel the economy needs a boost or is getting overheated. They know what they do has no direct effect on the economy but its a quick fix and doesn't provide any organic growth. Today, the only weapon the Fed has is the so-called wealth effect by driving the stock market up so people feel wealthier because interest rates are at 0%. The stock market went up 80% in 2009 so investors should be spending 2.4% extra of the entire value of the stock market, which is about two percent of GDP.  Here is a great video explaining the boom and bust cycles and is a warning to all entrepreneurs to stay current with stock and currency markets because it now directly effects you even if you are a small business. Maria Bartiromo sits down with Jeremy Grantham who has made some incredibly good predictions over the last few years.
 
The new $600B of quantitative easing goes into the banking and corporate sector of the economy who is largely sitting on the largest cash balance in business history.  They don't need the money at all and its not the sector of the economy who is going to take our unemployment rate down from 10-15%.  Those who need the stimulus money the most, small business & private investors, can't get it. Seeing a company like General Motors go public again makes me want to puke.  I can think of 100 other companies who deserve to be public companies before GM and that create far more future value, jobs and innovation in our economy.  GM going public is simply a private equity, government money and investment banker ponzi scheme.

I was a apart of one the largest business boom cycles in the late 1990's and there were a lot o great things about that time the US Government, FDIC and Fed have forgotten.  Investors were pouring money into Venture Capital funds that were providing funding to companies who were providing real long term jobs and creating new markets of innovation.  Much of this money came from the Government in the form of FDIC subsidies and they made lots of money for taking this risk.  Once the bubble burst and hedge funds drove the market 80% lower there was no optimism or money left in the VC industry to spark new growth.  The VC industry has shrunk drastically in the last decade and almost 80% of the VC funds not based in Silicon Valley are virtually out of business (aka "the living dead funds").

Capitalism in general is kind of a ponzi scheme but it can be done organically if the IPO market is fair and open.  Capitalism also works when Government regulatory agencies stay out of our way and don't favor big business monopolies.  I think if $100B in stimulus for struggling VC funds this would create another boom of optimism that we need.    The Fed and FDIC should also consider an Emergency Fund to fund to solve overweight population epidemic that is slowing the US economy down.  Here are a few other ways President Obama could help create jobs.

Disclosure: no positions]]> federal reserve interest rates venture capital