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Techmonkey

Techmonkey
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  • Italian PM Monti hits the tape, telling Dow Jones a majority of the EU states favor common eurobonds. Unfortunately, tweets ZH, the ones that oppose them are the ones that pay the bills.  [View news story]
    Sigh...this is the equivalent of the Greeks saying they'd like to stay in the euro (without paying for it)...or the far right in the US saying they want lower taxes and the same military/ss spending (without paying for it)...or the far left wanting mortgage relief (for loans people signed up for and now don't want to pay for). Sheesh. I'd like a coupla hundred billion dollars, please....
    May 24 04:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JMP Securities cuts the TBTF banks due to the European crisis, with analyst David Trone's base case scenario (60% chance) seeing a Greek exit, but no contagion. He sees just a 10% chance Greece stays in the EMU. That leaves 30% for exit, but with contagion.  [View news story]
    I'm missing something. Why is BAC diving down 3% today? Can't be one belated analyst looking at European macro data (when C and MS, which both have more exposure, are up and down 1% respectively). I don't see anything in the news to explain it.
    May 21 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Other banks AH on the JPMorgan news: BAC -3.2%, C -3.2%, GS -2.4%, MS -3.1%. Banking ETF: XLF -2%.  [View news story]
    Did you notice the part where JPM is still expected to make $4billion in Q2? And CSCO just made $2billion in the quarter, 33% up from the year prior. These aren't exactly "the world is ending" numbers. Some may miss expectations, but these are pretty darned good numbers....
    May 10 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Other banks AH on the JPMorgan news: BAC -3.2%, C -3.2%, GS -2.4%, MS -3.1%. Banking ETF: XLF -2%.  [View news story]
    I agree, this has nothing to do with BAC or the other large banks.

    BAC released its 10Q yesterday. No issue with theirs, no special call...they've been de-risking more than the other large banks (through necessity). As a part of the XLF, it'll take a little hit when JPM takes such a huge one--but JPM is just 8.8% of the XLF.
    May 10 05:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks Expected To Decline In 2012 [View article]
    Funny thing, I agree with several of the points about BAC (challenging environments, continuing damages, profit in the last quarter largely the result of accounting)...but I don't know how you get from there to a $2.90 price target. Will BAC have more mortgage and litigation losses? Yes (but it's been putting aside some pretty hefty reserves). Will the bank portion of BAC be as profitable post-Dodd-Frank? No (but it was pretty darn profitable before, and it did pick up this little Merrill Lynch thing which is churning out profit). As to debt and European exposure, not sure what your basis for those points is.

    Yes, BAC has issues, yes, it'll be the last major US bank to meet Basel III, but it's going to make money sooner or later. Even at 2012's EPS estimates, you can't get down to $2.90 unless you're sorely convinced another shoe is going to drop....
    Jan 5 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Any Of These Stocks Recover In 2012? [View article]
    Your article is totally lacking in any actual analysis--"I don't expect" doesn't mean anything. Where are the facts to underly your price expectations? You broad-brush a few positives for the stocks you're touting, throw out a few "skeptical market" comments for the stocks you're panning. Really, you're saying nothing. Where's the pro and con on Netflix cost structure/revenue/subs... Where is any consideration of the impact of competition coming via Amazon and others?

    Same for the negatives--do you actually attempt to value the lawsuit exposure of BAC vs the reserves? Or attempt to value the income coming in, trying to guide based on the impact of Dodd-Frank and Basel III on future profitability? No, you just say "people are skeptical". There are certainly arguments to be made against the large banks, as well as arguments for, and great difficulties in predicting future profitability because of changes in the regulatory structure....but you don't really say anything.

    Please don't write any more useless "articles".
    Dec 20 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: The Next Blockbuster? [View article]
    The evidence that digital will replace stores...is that the technology is here. Now. Game consoles are connected to the internet, and the bandwith is available for most (not all) US users to download software. What's missing is the console download user interface and console storage, or adequate cloud-based gaming software. We've already seen the shift with the Android and Iphone/Ipad App & Itunes stores; the PC shift is pending; consoles, with a much longer development/update cycle, are next.

    As to the numbers, I agree that the current numbers look good on the surface. I'm certain horse and buggy sales were fine too when the car first came along, and travel agencies performed well before the likes of Travelocity and Priceline. Gaming software is much denser and higher-load than music, so the shift is taking longer. But it's coming.

    I think the real point is that standard methods of analysis do not properly model future performance with an industry facing technical obsolescence or disruptive technologies.
    Nov 18 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: The Next Blockbuster? [View article]
    The revenues will decline--catastrophica... While digital distribution is in its infancy for non-pc games, PC game manufacturers are embracing the technology (see Blizzard's World of Warcraft-Cataclysm and StarCraft II titles). Purchasers get to play a game instantly on launch day, without waiting to install the game. The early adopters/first purchasers, similar to those viewer's at a movie's opening weekend, will represent the majority of new title purchases in short order.

    The current versions of the major game consoles do not allow for a similar easy purchase of content; however, a simplified purchase system/app store is sure to come with the next gaming cycle. Gamestop, like Blockbuster before it and Barnes and Noble in years to come, is doomed by digital.
    Nov 17 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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