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Techmonkey

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  • Italian PM Monti hits the tape, telling Dow Jones a majority of the EU states favor common eurobonds. Unfortunately, tweets ZH, the ones that oppose them are the ones that pay the bills.  [View news story]
    Sigh...this is the equivalent of the Greeks saying they'd like to stay in the euro (without paying for it)...or the far right in the US saying they want lower taxes and the same military/ss spending (without paying for it)...or the far left wanting mortgage relief (for loans people signed up for and now don't want to pay for). Sheesh. I'd like a coupla hundred billion dollars, please....
    May 24, 2012. 04:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Other banks AH on the JPMorgan news: BAC -3.2%, C -3.2%, GS -2.4%, MS -3.1%. Banking ETF: XLF -2%.  [View news story]
    I agree, this has nothing to do with BAC or the other large banks.

    BAC released its 10Q yesterday. No issue with theirs, no special call...they've been de-risking more than the other large banks (through necessity). As a part of the XLF, it'll take a little hit when JPM takes such a huge one--but JPM is just 8.8% of the XLF.
    May 10, 2012. 05:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Any Of These Stocks Recover In 2012? [View article]
    Your article is totally lacking in any actual analysis--"I don't expect" doesn't mean anything. Where are the facts to underly your price expectations? You broad-brush a few positives for the stocks you're touting, throw out a few "skeptical market" comments for the stocks you're panning. Really, you're saying nothing. Where's the pro and con on Netflix cost structure/revenue/subs... Where is any consideration of the impact of competition coming via Amazon and others?

    Same for the negatives--do you actually attempt to value the lawsuit exposure of BAC vs the reserves? Or attempt to value the income coming in, trying to guide based on the impact of Dodd-Frank and Basel III on future profitability? No, you just say "people are skeptical". There are certainly arguments to be made against the large banks, as well as arguments for, and great difficulties in predicting future profitability because of changes in the regulatory structure....but you don't really say anything.

    Please don't write any more useless "articles".
    Dec 20, 2011. 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Might Have A Big Earnings Surprise [View article]
    Reverse split has no impact on the monetary value of the shares outstanding, although it can affect certain exchange listing or stock-fund requirements.

    A buyback cuts the total number of the shares outstanding by purchasing some of the float; therefore, the smaller number of remaining shares outstanding is normally immediately worth more. There are quite a few discussions as to whether stock buybacks or additional dividends are better for a company overall, but between a buyback and a reverse split there's just no comparison--reverse split should have no impact on the price, while a buyback should increase the stock price.
    Oct 15, 2012. 05:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 dividends hit $30.20 in Q2 (at a seasonably adjusted annual rate). It's a record high, while at the same time payout ratios remain near their lowest levels in 25 years. (via tradefast)  [View news story]
    I'd rather see the raw dollar number get adjusted for inflation--otherwise, "historical" high doesn't mean much.
    Jul 9, 2012. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Other banks AH on the JPMorgan news: BAC -3.2%, C -3.2%, GS -2.4%, MS -3.1%. Banking ETF: XLF -2%.  [View news story]
    Did you notice the part where JPM is still expected to make $4billion in Q2? And CSCO just made $2billion in the quarter, 33% up from the year prior. These aren't exactly "the world is ending" numbers. Some may miss expectations, but these are pretty darned good numbers....
    May 10, 2012. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Might Have A Big Earnings Surprise [View article]
    I'm more excited to see progress in their expense reduction than anything else. Right now, their expenses are much higher than their competitors; if the "New BAC" project is effective, the new cost structure should greatly increase profitability, even in a low-NIM environment. Accelerating that program and buying back some of the trust securities (as previously disclosed) could give a near-term pop. Still a huge mortgage/litigation overhang, but overall status does appear to be improving.

    Disclosure: Long BAC.
    Oct 15, 2012. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks bounce back from early losses of nearly 1%, the S&P 500 now +0.1%, the Nasdaq +0.5%. The small caps put in an especially impressive move, the Russell 2000 moving 2% off the lows, now +1.4%[View news story]
    Any idea why? I haven't seen any Fed news, Draghi or Merkel comments, no data...other than Apple announcing a date for a conference.
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks are rallying sharply from deep losses, the S&P -0.3% after being down about 1.5% less than an hour ago, the Nasdaq -1.2% after being down more than 2%.  [View news story]
    The only thing that could move the markets this fast at this time of day is a European rumor...emphasis on rumor.
    Jun 28, 2012. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JMP Securities cuts the TBTF banks due to the European crisis, with analyst David Trone's base case scenario (60% chance) seeing a Greek exit, but no contagion. He sees just a 10% chance Greece stays in the EMU. That leaves 30% for exit, but with contagion.  [View news story]
    I'm missing something. Why is BAC diving down 3% today? Can't be one belated analyst looking at European macro data (when C and MS, which both have more exposure, are up and down 1% respectively). I don't see anything in the news to explain it.
    May 21, 2012. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: The Next Blockbuster? [View article]
    The evidence that digital will replace stores...is that the technology is here. Now. Game consoles are connected to the internet, and the bandwith is available for most (not all) US users to download software. What's missing is the console download user interface and console storage, or adequate cloud-based gaming software. We've already seen the shift with the Android and Iphone/Ipad App & Itunes stores; the PC shift is pending; consoles, with a much longer development/update cycle, are next.

    As to the numbers, I agree that the current numbers look good on the surface. I'm certain horse and buggy sales were fine too when the car first came along, and travel agencies performed well before the likes of Travelocity and Priceline. Gaming software is much denser and higher-load than music, so the shift is taking longer. But it's coming.

    I think the real point is that standard methods of analysis do not properly model future performance with an industry facing technical obsolescence or disruptive technologies.
    Nov 18, 2010. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: The Next Blockbuster? [View article]
    The revenues will decline--catastrophica... While digital distribution is in its infancy for non-pc games, PC game manufacturers are embracing the technology (see Blizzard's World of Warcraft-Cataclysm and StarCraft II titles). Purchasers get to play a game instantly on launch day, without waiting to install the game. The early adopters/first purchasers, similar to those viewer's at a movie's opening weekend, will represent the majority of new title purchases in short order.

    The current versions of the major game consoles do not allow for a similar easy purchase of content; however, a simplified purchase system/app store is sure to come with the next gaming cycle. Gamestop, like Blockbuster before it and Barnes and Noble in years to come, is doomed by digital.
    Nov 17, 2010. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Still A Mess [View article]
    Short-term profitability is clearly an issue. At this point, everyone is aware of the bevy of potential or pending suits and claims, and BAC's 10Q shows several billion in excess of reserves.

    However, I'm not sure how you make the jump from that to no evidence of long-term profitability or profit potential. There has been clear progress made in lowering debt/settling claims/increasing capital base. After (eventually) paying the remaining claims, taking the losses on the NPL's, and jettisoning or redeploying the thousands of excess employees who've been working on legacy/NPL's, future profitability at some level seems extremely likely. Now, if you said you're not sure how long-term that long-term might be, I'd agree--it could still take years to deal with the outstanding claims and liability.
    Nov 7, 2012. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Bank Of America's True Value: Legacy Assets And Legal Risks Continue To Weigh Heavily On Its Market Price [View article]
    I agree with almost everything in your analysis, except perhaps one point right at the top--was much of the fall in in revenue due to discontinued operations (such as discontinued mortgage operations or overseas credit card portfolio sale)? If so, I wouldn't see the revenue drop as troubling...whereas lower net income is always troubling.
    Nov 7, 2012. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Might Have A Big Earnings Surprise [View article]
    Disappointed in the $1 bil increase in unreserved to $6 bil. That's enough to eat up a couple of quarters of healthy earnings...and the earnings right now aren't healthy. Looks like the return to normality is further down the road than I was expecting.
    Oct 18, 2012. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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