jerry parker

China: No, But This Time Really Is Different

first, nice article. second, i wasn't impressed w/ R/R - China is of interest, and easy to criticize. old saying, "even a broken clock is right twice a day." if R/R really wants to talk crisis, let's talk more about the state of US and the implications that may have for our trading partners once the world realizes that America has been doing a "cash advance" for the past 30 yrs on its entitlement programs. the interest is currently not too bad, but it could get very high. at some point, the bill collector(recipients/r... will get pissed with all these phony/optimistic projections that there's still money left for future advances. imho, until that time, given China's current surplus, it should be the least of investors' worries.

Congrats to Herb Greenberg - Starting Equity Research Firm

congrats? you gotta be kidding me.

let's just call a spade a spade.

herbie has been a puppet to the short sellers out there for years. smart people watching him on TV perceive him as a hired gun with full intention of blowing up public companies to help his buddies make money on the shorts side - you call that independent research?

for the record, i don't mind shorts who are disclosing their true intentions. however, people who pretend to be independent and then use deceit and rhetoric to bash their targets - that should be the subject of SEC investigation, not praise.

my $.02.

Buffett: The Impossible Expectations of Stock Performance

these reviews of the last century on the dow 30 stocks are meaningless as it's too narrow and the stocks have changed too much to be able to make any broad statements. it might work a bit better for S&P500, but even then there's been big changes to the composition of changing from industrial co's to an index filled w/ technology and financial svcs co's. btw, the financials are probably responsible for a good chunk of the overall index's weakness recently. therefore, it may not be a good time to be making snapshot analysis of today's performance(subprime fallout) vs. a longer period of time(like a 100 yr period). good luck to all, but i would recommend that people choose real co's rather than the index which is filled w/ dumb money which pushes up larger cap co's due to its size rather than because it's a better stock. after all, were INTC and MSFT better buys when they were $1B mkt cap going to $200B+? or $200B trying to up up 10x? Btw, you saw INTC and MSFT both languish AFTER it became part of the DOW 30 stocks also.

Baidu Beats Street, but Guidance Falls Short

Dick Wei of JPM has been poo-pooing BIDU for the past week, and the hedge fund world has been talking about about the sequentially down revenues guidance for the past month. This is NOT new news for most smart people following the stock...esp since stock has come down from $400+ to $260. Not saying BIDU is worth a particular price, but there's too many dumb shorts out there who are the "fool" at the poker table and don't realize it, yet.

What if the Fed Cut Doesn't Help?

herb is a puppet for the shorts and has no credibility for anything he says. it's too bad that the SEC doesn't nail him and his hedge fund buddies for colluding and manipulating the markets and specific stocks, ie. put on their short positions and then have "herbie" pump their positions - then they can cover their shorts. time to check out the email and Instant Messages.

MLF Investments - Sitting Short and Pretty

instead of speculating and also waiting for 13Fs, why not just get his performance? if what you're saying is true about 4 stocks, it should be very well reflected in his fund performance #'s. most dbase have this information for mgrs who are managing funds. good luck on your search. will be interesting to see your conclusion vs. your hunch.

"Wu Li Re Xin" - Irrational Exuberance in Chinese

i can't stand it when i read caucasians write about china like they're experts. when will the smart people figure that "one day" china will stop being thought of as an "emerging country or economy." china size and growth rate will dwarf most of europe and this world's countries. why not compare china's p/e to US's 2008? in fact, let's also compare it to other developed countries and then factor in the growth rate. china has both the domestic consumption growth as well as export growth...who else has that critical mass on both? as far as i'm concerned, MSCI is similarly non-thinkers who are driving forward while looking in the rear view mirror. my $.02.

Indian Internet Stocks Rediff and Sify: Priced Beyond Perfection - Barron's

i think your comments regarding GOOG and YHOO gaining shares on REDF as reason to sell REDF could end up looking pretty silly if REDF gets bought. incidentally, at similar valuations to REDF, SINA would go for $4.5B+, or about $85/share...up from $45 today.

How to Win the China Piracy Battle

interesting read.

however, when it comes to sfwr, i've heard that even MSFT has been playing games and then blaming it on chinese piracy - they want to have their cake and eat it to.
what i heard is that MSFT deliberately puts out fake copies of their own windows operating system to make sure that it's still the OS of choice for the chinese as the dominant sfwr.

why would they do that?
if 95% of the individual users and private businesses switched over to free/linux type OS(even if initially inferior)...and only the fortune 500 companies were left to buy ligitimate MSFT windows and office products, how big would the chinese market be? Not too big i would guess.

therefore, it's in MSFT's best interest to keep their software as the DOMINANT choice and majority market leader...even if it means giving away free "fake" ones.

Btw, I don't have a problem with MSFT for taking that strategy.
however, don't blame all of the piracy on the local chinese people.

buzz

Who is Crocs Trying to Fool?

you're an idiot and you're trying to get others to join in.
you fail to realize that if you're already short, you DO NOT want others to join you.
if you do, it'll just get more crowded...how do you think the stock went from $40 to $86?
if you keep going and get more dummies to join you, you will lose more money when CROX hits $100.
as for your arguments on insider selling, give me a break.
there's been countless studies that there's no correlation to stock performance.
shall we look at GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, NTRI...give it up and try a new angle.
p.s. insiders sold LOTS of stock last year w/ CROX at $28 before it went up over 300%...how do you explain that vs. this year?

Here's Why Amazon Won't Buy Netflix

Herb Greenberg is a puppet for the shorts. He's been harassing HANS and NTRI stock since the stocks were micro cap...and after the stocks go up 10-fold and has a single hiccup, he pounds his chest and says he was right.

The truth is that ANY of you could make more money doing opposite of what Greenberg says...check out the chart for NTRI the past 4 months as a prime example, even as he says it's going to zero because their growth has slowed, NOT!!!

Those who can make money, do. Those who can't...they try to use their big mouth to create noise.

My $.02 on Herbie.

Goldman's Chief Economist Now Believes a Rate Cut is Unnecessary

i'm not saying whether he's right or not regarding the rate cut. however, historically economists are the worst people to listen to in trying to figure out how to make money in the bond/stock market. in fact, i suggest for most i-banks, the proprietary trading desks positions were often opposite of the economists' call on the bond market...and they hear the guy talking every day. what does that tell you about whether to pay attention to that call? let's talk about his track record before you start printing his call? remember, CNBC used to put all sorts of bozos on TV w/ stock picks? now, all the portfolio mgrs have their performances listed and their prior calls we can tell if the guy's been making money or not.

Moritz's Resignation From Google: Escape or Ejection?

interesting comments.
let's see if you can figure out the answers to these questions:
1) who was YAHOO!'s orig VC and gained massive trust by the founders?
2) who was able to convince Yahoo! founders to use GOOG's search and give up that business oppty?
3) who made the most money after Yahoo! figure out they lost a $100B+ biz oppty by listening to this man's advice?
4) who caused such a big hole in Yahoo! that they had to acquire Overture?
5) who caused such a big mess that Yahoo!'s still trying to figure out...Panama?
...perhaps just a mere coincidence.

Xinhua Finance Media: Why I Took a Chance on this Chinese IPO

dude - your commentary is filled with inaccuracies...i can't believe you'd write all those items before checking the facts. BIDU, LFC, and EDU traded below after the IPO? are you kidding me? these stocks all rose 20%+ on the first day and continued to rise...never falling below the IPO price. the truth is that breaking the IPO price has a very negative psychological impact for investors and the underwriters did a huge disservice by pricing it too high. of course, when the IPO includes selling shareholders like the CEO in xinhua's case, the CEO is trying to price at the highest possible price. from my experience in examining chinese stocks, it's best to invest in high growing co's or really really low p/e companies. xinhua is unfortunately in the middle...and probably not the best china play among investor options.

Ciena's Reverse Stock Split: Appealing to Short-Sellers?

the key to stock split is whether the company is growing revenues and if they're EPS positive. if so, it'll work. if it's still losing money, then the company will lose more per share. if they're making money, then instead of $.01/share, they could make $.07/share...that's much more meaningful from institutional investor standpoint. although author claims it's just accounting, there's reasons why people want to use dollar bills and qtrs and avoid using pennies. after all, it's just accounting so what'e the big deal? the big deal is that with over 8,000 stocks to choose from, investors have plenty of options - they'd prefer money making stocks that are trading above $10-20, all things being equal, than sub-$5 that's barely break even. just my $.02.