SA Editor Stephen Alpher's Comments SA Editor Stephen Alpher's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/779406/comments Keep an eye on property casualty insurers (TRV, ALL, CB, AIG) after all posted notable declines amid the Oklahoma City tornado disaster yesterday. The dip following Sandy proved a great buying opportunity (though from much lower levels). http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1037011?source=feed#comment-19068261 19068261 Tue, 21 May 2013 09:37:38 -0400 Newly public ING U.S. (VOYA) is up 20% since its IPO 2 weeks ago, but only trades at 60% of book value compared to the average life insurer (MET, HIG, PRU) selling for near book, writes Andrew Bary. Not only that, but the company is misunderstood - it's more retirement-services specialist and asset manager (think PFG) than life insurer, and should command an even higher valuation. What's more the seller (ING) was forced by regulators to do so against its will, the ING CEO calling it a "significant destruction of capital." Spinoff & Reorg Profiles - rarely a fan of promoted IPOs - think's it's worth $31. With an easily digestible $6B market cap, it might be worth even more to an acquirer. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1033931?source=feed#comment-19039711 19039711
At $31.17, HIG trades at 80% of its $39.09 stated book as of March 31 (excluding AOCI).]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 15:22:59 -0400
At $31.17, HIG trades at 80% of its $39.09 stated book as of March 31 (excluding AOCI).]]> The spinoff of New Residential (NRZ) from Newcastle Investment (NCT) has been completed and NRZ will begin trading on the NYSE today. At the moment, NCT is indicated to open at $5.83, NRZ at $6.70 - a total of $12.53 vs. yesterday's NCT close of $12.33. (PR)  http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1029131?source=feed#comment-18897821 18897821 Thu, 16 May 2013 11:00:08 -0400 Citigroup (C) joins AIG in the hedge fund hotel (Apple was kicked out in late 2012/early 2013), with this week's 13F filings showing a number of well-known funds adding or initiating positions in Q1 (though Tepper's Appaloosa pared his). The stock's up 40% since Michael Corbat took the reins from Vikram Pandit and hit another 52-week high yesterday. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028981?source=feed#comment-18888601 18888601 Thu, 16 May 2013 07:54:48 -0400 GCVRZ: A Potential 16 Bagger Worth The Risk http://seekingalpha.com/article/1095761/comments?source=feed#comment-18850131 18850131 Wed, 15 May 2013 10:58:54 -0400 My Last Article And My Last Best Idea http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430351/comments?source=feed#comment-18807441 18807441 Tue, 14 May 2013 10:16:04 -0400 InterMedia re-raises, upping its bid for Outdoor Channel Holdings (OUTD +5.9%) to $9.75 in cash to top Kroenke's $9.35 bid from yesterday. The action now moves back to Kroenke. The stock's currently at $10.02, suggesting Kroenke isn't about to fold. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/997781?source=feed#comment-18605281 18605281 Wed, 08 May 2013 21:17:59 -0400 InterMedia re-raises, upping its bid for Outdoor Channel Holdings (OUTD +5.9%) to $9.75 in cash to top Kroenke's $9.35 bid from yesterday. The action now moves back to Kroenke. The stock's currently at $10.02, suggesting Kroenke isn't about to fold. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/997781?source=feed#comment-18578971 18578971 Wed, 08 May 2013 11:14:33 -0400 "There are less ways to cheat on a balance sheet than an income statement," says Bruce Berkowitz, explaining why he focuses on the one rather than the other (and why he'll probably never be a buyer of auto stocks). In this great 35-minute chat from late last year, he again makes his case for AIG and BAC - "it's the 90s all over again" - and SHLD - selling for the liquidation value of its merchandise; the brands and the real estate are free. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/976391?source=feed#comment-18496931 18496931 Mon, 06 May 2013 12:36:03 -0400 The pot is raised in the play for Outdoor Channel Holdings (OUTD) with Kroenke Sports Entertainment upping its bid to $9.35/share. The action now moves back to InterMedia (whose $9.15 was just topped). Re-raise or fold? Let's ask the two who've been all over this from the start: "I bet InterMedia has a $9.75 bid in by tomorrow afternoon," says Whopper Investments. "Likely a double-digit price soon ... OUTD is worth at least $12 to InterMedia," says Chris DeMuth. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/995461?source=feed#comment-18402471 18402471 Fri, 03 May 2013 10:33:11 -0400 Neutral Tandem's Proxy Fight Could Yield Substantial Value For Shareholders http://seekingalpha.com/article/1335581/comments?source=feed#comment-18319451 18319451 Wed, 01 May 2013 12:50:29 -0400 Mortgage REITs (MORT) catch the eye of D.C., with the Financial Stability Oversight Council reportedly set to cite the industry as a potential source of market vulnerability. The companies have seen assets quadruple to over $400B since 2009, but Annaly (NLY) CEO Wellington Denahan notes their capital bases have risen as well. A Two Harbors (TWO) presentation (page 8) shows mREITs are relatively small players in the MBS market. Maybe the Fed and the GSEs just don't like the competition. Annaly and American Capital (AGNC) are the 2 biggest mREITs, with Two Harbors a distant 3rd. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/953711?source=feed#comment-17829331 17829331
Commercial banks hold about 38% of all mortgage debt outstanding
GSEs and the Fed 22%
Other 8%
Insurance Cos. 8%
Credit unions 7%
Non-bank lenders 5%
mREITs 3%]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 09:41:13 -0400
Commercial banks hold about 38% of all mortgage debt outstanding
GSEs and the Fed 22%
Other 8%
Insurance Cos. 8%
Credit unions 7%
Non-bank lenders 5%
mREITs 3%]]> Déjà vu: Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) buys 4,000 "cheap" mortgage loans at auction in March for around half of the value of their unpaid principal. Why so cheap? Because the loans are "to U.S. borrowers who are having trouble paying them back," according to WSJ. To some, this undoubtedly seems like a case of an investment bank's short memory as RBS' ~£1BN in losses on sub-prime assets during the crisis ultimately precipitated its demise. Time will tell. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/950071?source=feed#comment-17763981 17763981
Now they're better-capitalized and buying mortgages at half price on property that's already collapsed in value. They're also buying from a seller who's being forced to sell for non-economic reasons. Seems like RBS has a pretty fair margin of safety on the deal.

Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but I doubt it will threaten the bank.]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 20:02:14 -0400
Now they're better-capitalized and buying mortgages at half price on property that's already collapsed in value. They're also buying from a seller who's being forced to sell for non-economic reasons. Seems like RBS has a pretty fair margin of safety on the deal.

Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but I doubt it will threaten the bank.]]> Wine Arbitrage http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/957061-chris-demuth-jr/1714611-wine-arbitrage?source=feed#comment-17177431 17177431 Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:51:02 -0400 GCVRZ: A Potential 16 Bagger Worth The Risk http://seekingalpha.com/article/1095761/comments?source=feed#comment-17085811 17085811 Mon, 01 Apr 2013 16:24:14 -0400 Texas Hold ‘Em Tournaments And Value Investing http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/957061-chris-demuth-jr/1709031-texas-hold-em-tournaments-and-value-investing?source=feed#comment-17078651 17078651
Jeff Yass (and his partners) started Susquehanna Investment Group with winnings from poker and horse betting. They're grown net worths in the billions (or at least hundreds of millions) by making massive amounts of slightly positive EV bets. SIG job interviews are nothing but being asked a bunch of probability questions. If you make it past the first couple of rounds, it's on to test your chops in poker.]]> Mon, 01 Apr 2013 14:10:09 -0400
Jeff Yass (and his partners) started Susquehanna Investment Group with winnings from poker and horse betting. They're grown net worths in the billions (or at least hundreds of millions) by making massive amounts of slightly positive EV bets. SIG job interviews are nothing but being asked a bunch of probability questions. If you make it past the first couple of rounds, it's on to test your chops in poker.]]> The Borgata casino (MGM, BYD) in Atlantic City could see a lift after Revel files for bankruptcy. Though Revel expects to maintain normal business operations during the restructuring, a decline in traffic is expected. The bigger issue: The story in Atlantic City remains grim with hurricane-related problems still in play and casinos in neighboring Pennsylvania drawing customers away. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/912591?source=feed#comment-16885431 16885431 Wed, 27 Mar 2013 12:15:26 -0400 Gramercy Capital Management Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/1287781/comments?source=feed#comment-16536011 16536011
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Wed, 20 Mar 2013 08:03:26 -0400
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> The Coming Boom In MicroCap Agriculture Stocks http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281471/comments?source=feed#comment-16418831 16418831
Re J.G. Boswell ... The King of California - which details the rise of Boswell - is one of the finer books I've ever read

Re Alico ... the company has been shopping itself for awhile and jumped about 10% over the past couple of sessions after hiring Deutsche to assist.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:54:30 -0400
Re J.G. Boswell ... The King of California - which details the rise of Boswell - is one of the finer books I've ever read

Re Alico ... the company has been shopping itself for awhile and jumped about 10% over the past couple of sessions after hiring Deutsche to assist.]]> Our Best Investment Idea For 2013: Gramercy Capital, Part II http://seekingalpha.com/article/1165551/comments?source=feed#comment-16282971 16282971
They just got 1.5% of their market cap for a dinky little building.]]> Thu, 14 Mar 2013 12:58:56 -0400
They just got 1.5% of their market cap for a dinky little building.]]> Our Best Investment Idea For 2013: Gramercy Capital, Part II http://seekingalpha.com/article/1165551/comments?source=feed#comment-16281741 16281741 http://bit.ly/ZCCO7z

?]]> Thu, 14 Mar 2013 12:39:47 -0400 http://bit.ly/ZCCO7z

?]]> GCVRZ: A Potential 16 Bagger Worth The Risk http://seekingalpha.com/article/1095761/comments?source=feed#comment-15973381 15973381
No position, but thanks for the introduction to a securities area I previously paid little attention to.]]> Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:21:25 -0500
No position, but thanks for the introduction to a securities area I previously paid little attention to.]]> Cable shoots higher after the BOE decision. About 40% of those surveyed expected the bank to boost its QE program after last meeting's minutes and some leading talk from Governor King, but it's Mark Carney's bank now - even if he doesn't start his job until July. Sterling (FXB) +0.3% to $1.5057. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/873131?source=feed#comment-15972731 15972731
http://bit.ly/VKhKzk]]> Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:12:58 -0500
http://bit.ly/VKhKzk]]> More on Dell (DELL): Opposed to the buyout, one of the options Southeastern Asset Management has considered is investing alongside Michael Dell as he takes the company private. Another option: Teaming up with another player to make a higher offer. Separately, among those who showed interest as the board looked for other buyers were H-P and Lenovo. (Earlier: Icahn gets involved) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/871561?source=feed#comment-15937761 15937761 Wed, 06 Mar 2013 15:58:42 -0500 All 17 bank holding companies subject to Fed stress tests will pass the exam, says Credit Suisse's Moshe Orenbuch (results due Thursday). He thus sees payout ratios for the group rising to 64% of earnings this year from 36% in 2012, with BofA (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Regions Financial (RF) getting the biggest bump. Morgan Stanley (MS) and SunTrust (STI) should also see sizable increases. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/870791?source=feed#comment-15921161 15921161 Wed, 06 Mar 2013 11:29:26 -0500 TPG-Axon increases its stake in SandRidge Energy (SD) to 36.2M shares from 33M at 2012's end. The deadline for voting on TPG's bid to replace the board is March 15. Between TPG and Leon Cooperman - who sounded on last week's CC like he's had it with management - that's more than 70M shares vs. a float of nearly 500M. Shares +0.7% AH. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/869291?source=feed#comment-15895121 15895121
:>)]]> Tue, 05 Mar 2013 22:38:02 -0500
:>)]]> TPG-Axon increases its stake in SandRidge Energy (SD) to 36.2M shares from 33M at 2012's end. The deadline for voting on TPG's bid to replace the board is March 15. Between TPG and Leon Cooperman - who sounded on last week's CC like he's had it with management - that's more than 70M shares vs. a float of nearly 500M. Shares +0.7% AH. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/869291?source=feed#comment-15894341 15894341 http://bit.ly/10cpNYi]]> Tue, 05 Mar 2013 22:15:32 -0500 http://bit.ly/10cpNYi]]> SandRidge Mississippian Trust I (SDT -9.5%) is cut to Sell from Hold with a reduced $13 target price at Wunderlich, citing a weakening distribution outlook due to higher costs, lower production and a higher mix of natural gas being produced. Investors may be attracted to SDT's yield, but the firm says investors should focus on the trust's risk profile. SDR -4.9%, PER -2.5%. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/867871?source=feed#comment-15866761 15866761 Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:32:41 -0500 SandRidge CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/1240201/comments?source=feed#comment-15703881 15703881 Fri, 01 Mar 2013 15:23:34 -0500 Billed as a private equity ETF, the newly listed PEX owns no Blackstone, KKR, or Fortress. The top U.S. holdings - ARCC, ACAS, PSEC, AINV, FSC - will be well-known to fans of BDCs though. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/859311?source=feed#comment-15639961 15639961 BKCC), not Blackrock (BX).]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2013 12:36:42 -0500 BKCC), not Blackrock (BX).]]>