The Real Opportunity In The Two Harbors/Silver Bay IPO [View article]
Nice work James.
Having been in the business, I've seen a few of these "we're going to take SFH Rentals out of the Mom & Pop arena" over the years. No one's yet been able to make the economies of scale work. Maybe with home prices in a depressed state, SBY will fare better.
I'll try and spend more time over the weekend going through your numbers, but obviously the management fee is out of whack. What does the S-1 say the management fee wil be? 10%? There's a REIT mgmt fee on top of this, I presume?
Chimera's Fair Value: 35% Upside Potential On A High Dividend mREIT [View article]
What does everyone make of the fact that part of that $0.09 dividend is a return of capital? How can the company announce a $0.09 divvy in Q1 and Q2 next year when it doesn't know how much income it will have?
AIG is now off 5.5%, as headline earnings look nice, but core operations less so. The combined ratio for P&C stood at 105 in Q3, down only a hair from 105.9 a year ago (above 100 means the company is paying out more in claims than it receives from premiums). The ratio for Allstate and Travelers showed far greater improvement, with both now in the 90 range, notes KBM's Cliff Gallant, nevertheless raising his PT on AIG to $34 from $31. [View news story]
Have you looked into the warrants at all? They seem a better buy.
The Labor Department has not yet made a decision on whether to delay Friday's payroll report, reports the WSJ, and is planning to asses the situation when the "weather emergency" is over. Any delay would push the jobs numbers release to after the election. [View news story]
So let me get this straight - if the number comes out on Friday and it's a good one, the fix is in. If the number is delayed until after the storm, the fix is in.
"I am alarmed by the reflexive groupthink of our leaders," says David Einhorn, following Hugh Hendry at Buttonwood (live here). It's not that Fed policies are delivering a diminishing boost to growth, they're actually retarding it, he argues (anyone who has spent the last week listening to financial firms' earnings calls can attest to this). [View news story]
Today is 25 years to the day since Black Monday, when the DJIA crashed 508 points, or nearly 23%. The collapse sparked fears of another depression, although a recession didn't come for two years and was relatively mild. The NYT has a retrospective blaming "portfolio insurance" and describing the crash as the "beginning of the destruction of markets by dumb computers." [View news story]
Not only have investors been pulling cash out of stock funds all year, but the pace of the outflows is picking up. Investors pulled $10.6B out of stock funds in the week ended Oct. 3, ICI reports, in the biggest weekly outflow since Aug. 2011. There's no end in sight to the trend of flows moving from stock to bond funds, and it could accelerate further if the current mini-selloff gets any worse. [View news story]
U.S. equity ETFs saw $22B of net inflows in September, $31B in Q3.
U.S fixed income ETFs saw $2.5B of net inflows in September, $6.6B in Q3.
Not only have investors been pulling cash out of stock funds all year, but the pace of the outflows is picking up. Investors pulled $10.6B out of stock funds in the week ended Oct. 3, ICI reports, in the biggest weekly outflow since Aug. 2011. There's no end in sight to the trend of flows moving from stock to bond funds, and it could accelerate further if the current mini-selloff gets any worse. [View news story]
Doesn't the ICI data measure mutual funds? How much of the outflow is just mutual funds losing market share to ETFs?
S&P futures jump to session highs, +0.6% following jobless claims declining to their lowest level since early 2008. The 4-week moving average declines 11.5K to 364K. Has anyone checked Jack Welch's twitter feed yet? [View news story]
That's incorrect, I believe. I think the statement was more ... one state - showing an unanticipated drop in claims - was behind the large overall decline. We'll try and get it sorted out.
Another tidbit from Wal-Mart's (WMT +2.8%) investor meeting (webcast): The company plans to have over 240 Neighborhood Market stores in place by the end of FY13, a significant pickup in the pace of growth for the small-sized supermarkets across the landscape. While posing an obvious threat to local and national grocery stores, the initiative could also effect pharmacy sales at Walgreen (WAG +0.1%), CVS Caremark (CVS +0.5%), and Rite Aid (RAD +0.4%) eventually. [View news story]
August Consumer Credit rises $18.1B vs. expectations of $7.25B, prior -$2.45B (revised from -$3.3). Revolving loans up $4.3B, non-revolving (student loans) up $13.9. On percentage terms outstanding credit rose 8% in August - revolving +5.9%, non-revolving +9%. [View news story]
I'm assuming a lot of student loans get disbursed in August.
Vanguard announces changes in the benchmark indices used for 22 of its ETFs, partly motivated by a desire to pay less in licensing costs. The Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is among those affected, with its benchmark shifting from MSCI to one created by FTSE. The competing iShares ETF (EEM) still tracks MSCI, so now investors have a reason other than price to choose between the two. [View news story]
Looks like the same one Vanguard is switching to - FTSE All-Emerging Index.
"Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. [View news story]
Comparing duration risk on a 30-year fixed income instrument yielding 3% to the risk of owning Apple. That's a good one. :)
Dividend investors catch a break as Global X lowers the cost of its Super Dividend ETF (SDIV) to 0.58% from 1.14%. Just about a year old, the fund has nearly $120M in AUM and yields 7.7%. Perhaps applauding, investors give the fund a nice pop today relative to other dividend ETFs. [View news story]
Ellington Financial: The Best Mortgage 'REIT' At A Healthy Discount To Book Value [View article]
Like LTCM? Are you trying to scare the longs? :>)
Just kidding (kind of). Nice work.
The Real Opportunity In The Two Harbors/Silver Bay IPO [View article]
Having been in the business, I've seen a few of these "we're going to take SFH Rentals out of the Mom & Pop arena" over the years. No one's yet been able to make the economies of scale work. Maybe with home prices in a depressed state, SBY will fare better.
I'll try and spend more time over the weekend going through your numbers, but obviously the management fee is out of whack. What does the S-1 say the management fee wil be? 10%? There's a REIT mgmt fee on top of this, I presume?
Chimera's Fair Value: 35% Upside Potential On A High Dividend mREIT [View article]
AIG is now off 5.5%, as headline earnings look nice, but core operations less so. The combined ratio for P&C stood at 105 in Q3, down only a hair from 105.9 a year ago (above 100 means the company is paying out more in claims than it receives from premiums). The ratio for Allstate and Travelers showed far greater improvement, with both now in the 90 range, notes KBM's Cliff Gallant, nevertheless raising his PT on AIG to $34 from $31. [View news story]
The Labor Department has not yet made a decision on whether to delay Friday's payroll report, reports the WSJ, and is planning to asses the situation when the "weather emergency" is over. Any delay would push the jobs numbers release to after the election. [View news story]
"I am alarmed by the reflexive groupthink of our leaders," says David Einhorn, following Hugh Hendry at Buttonwood (live here). It's not that Fed policies are delivering a diminishing boost to growth, they're actually retarding it, he argues (anyone who has spent the last week listening to financial firms' earnings calls can attest to this). [View news story]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Today is 25 years to the day since Black Monday, when the DJIA crashed 508 points, or nearly 23%. The collapse sparked fears of another depression, although a recession didn't come for two years and was relatively mild. The NYT has a retrospective blaming "portfolio insurance" and describing the crash as the "beginning of the destruction of markets by dumb computers." [View news story]
Not only have investors been pulling cash out of stock funds all year, but the pace of the outflows is picking up. Investors pulled $10.6B out of stock funds in the week ended Oct. 3, ICI reports, in the biggest weekly outflow since Aug. 2011. There's no end in sight to the trend of flows moving from stock to bond funds, and it could accelerate further if the current mini-selloff gets any worse. [View news story]
U.S fixed income ETFs saw $2.5B of net inflows in September, $6.6B in Q3.
http://bit.ly/RBb94x
Not only have investors been pulling cash out of stock funds all year, but the pace of the outflows is picking up. Investors pulled $10.6B out of stock funds in the week ended Oct. 3, ICI reports, in the biggest weekly outflow since Aug. 2011. There's no end in sight to the trend of flows moving from stock to bond funds, and it could accelerate further if the current mini-selloff gets any worse. [View news story]
S&P futures jump to session highs, +0.6% following jobless claims declining to their lowest level since early 2008. The 4-week moving average declines 11.5K to 364K. Has anyone checked Jack Welch's twitter feed yet? [View news story]
Another tidbit from Wal-Mart's (WMT +2.8%) investor meeting (webcast): The company plans to have over 240 Neighborhood Market stores in place by the end of FY13, a significant pickup in the pace of growth for the small-sized supermarkets across the landscape. While posing an obvious threat to local and national grocery stores, the initiative could also effect pharmacy sales at Walgreen (WAG +0.1%), CVS Caremark (CVS +0.5%), and Rite Aid (RAD +0.4%) eventually. [View news story]
August Consumer Credit rises $18.1B vs. expectations of $7.25B, prior -$2.45B (revised from -$3.3). Revolving loans up $4.3B, non-revolving (student loans) up $13.9. On percentage terms outstanding credit rose 8% in August - revolving +5.9%, non-revolving +9%. [View news story]
Vanguard announces changes in the benchmark indices used for 22 of its ETFs, partly motivated by a desire to pay less in licensing costs. The Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is among those affected, with its benchmark shifting from MSCI to one created by FTSE. The competing iShares ETF (EEM) still tracks MSCI, so now investors have a reason other than price to choose between the two. [View news story]
http://bit.ly/WeXSBJ
Vanguard expense ratio is 0.33% ... for the moment. Maybe the switch will allow them to lower it?
"Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. [View news story]
Dividend investors catch a break as Global X lowers the cost of its Super Dividend ETF (SDIV) to 0.58% from 1.14%. Just about a year old, the fund has nearly $120M in AUM and yields 7.7%. Perhaps applauding, investors give the fund a nice pop today relative to other dividend ETFs. [View news story]