Seeking Alpha

oboist1

oboist1
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View oboist1's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Does Bank Of America Need Some 'Whipping Into Shape'? [View article]
    I strongly agree. Sorry in advance if you are happily employed in HR... HR is usually a weak-willed lackey to management. This is Moynihan's choice a few months before the stress test presentation ? Really ?? Maybe Donofrio is a winner. He has to know something about Finance or the BAC board and the bank analysts will embarass him AND BAC. Who knows ? It just doesn't look good right now. I wonder if Warren Buffett had a private chat with Moynihan today ? I think it's time to split the CEO and COB into two offices.
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Even The Bulls Are Giving Up On Hardware [View article]
    David,

    Can you provide a bullet point summary of the reasons why enterprise is using Good Technology over BBRY ? Price ? Better security ? Ease of use ? BYOD flexibility ?

    Thanks.
    Mar 24, 2015. 05:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Intrinsic Value $26 Per Share, Upside Potential 60%+ [View article]
    I think it is good that BAC shares are going to be priced lower this year. The $ 4 billion buy back program will benefit from temporarily cheaper shares. Interest rates are going up which will help loan spreads. The major litigation expenses have passed. When the noise from the regulators dies down, the dividend is sure to rise - probably to $0.40 to 0.80/year (3-5%). BAC is still owned by Warren Buffett He plans to hold them a long time. Its nice to have Buffett as a "partner" in BAC. Plus Buffett has publicity supported Moynihan.

    If you are a short term trader, then maybe this stock does not have enough "action". If you are a long term investor, this stock is likely to do very well.
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC: BofA must allow shareholder vote on breakup [View news story]
    Whatever. Let the petition come to a vote. BAC will explain the proposal to the shareholders and they will vote it down. Warren Buffett has already publically stated his full support for Moynihan. Who do you think understands BAC better, Warren Buffett or the SEC ?

    Four words for the SEC:

    Get off my lawn !
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Will Lose Enterprise To Windows [View article]
    Chris -

    Thanks for your past articles. Great, fact-based analysis.

    Question: Are all 6.8 M current customers required to pick one plan (with other non-compulsory options) to maintain their BB device connection to BBRY ?

    If that is true, I anticipate their will be some customers leaving BB for an Android or iPhone. Though, $25/year is not too bad. For the keyboard, BBOS and security, that is pretty cheap - about $2/month.

    So, that is a typical software model (MSFT). High incremental margins !
    Jan 16, 2015. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Another Curious Takeover Rumor [View article]
    Quoting the News Release From Reuters:

    Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) proposed acquiring BlackBerry (BBRY+29.8%) for a price between $13.35-$15.49/share, according to a Reuters source...

    That is a VERY specific leak/announcement.

    I think Samsung expressed interest in BBRY in a private meeting or a phone call. Then BBRY was forced to publicly deny the leak.

    There is going to be a stock manipulation investigation. Whoever "leaked" that info is on the hot seat unless Reuters maintains protection of its source(s).
    Jan 14, 2015. 06:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Secusmart: iPhone-Specific Signal App Doesn't Make It Irrelevant [View article]
    From a competitive advantage view point, any cell phone hardware manufacturer can add secure hardware in future offerings. With software encryption and security measures, I think BBRY's security advantage may not be a durable barrier to entry. The moat appears to be getting weaker over time. Also tech has a well documented history of fast moving and disruptive innovative to meet customer needs. I am still long BBRY based primarily on Chen's record and a well reasoned path toward a successful turn around. I welcome well reasoned arguments on BBRY's competitive advantage.
    Dec 8, 2014. 12:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is America's Least Favorite Bank [View article]
    Here we go again. Another "Buffett has lost his golden touch" piece. 4 out 5 businesses at BAC are humming along. The 5th (mortgages) is going to shine long term now that the majority of the settlements have been paid. Its a classic Munger checklist item, too. Munger: "What you want is a business that when a little something happens, its just gushes cash". Rising interest rates on the huge sums under BAC management will boost BAC's bottom line. Who knew rising interest rates would eventually gush cash ? Sticky deposits, too. You can't talk to your laptop or PC for advice and offer the variety of services provided by a local bank.
    Oct 10, 2014. 06:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry - Signs Of Life Are Emerging [View article]
    I have read several tech site reviews of the Passport. They are somewhat negative. That might explain some of the price drop. There are likely some ER fears, too. The known unknown ;). I am not long or short. Just watching and learning more about BBRY.
    Sep 24, 2014. 04:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: $2.76 In EPS Means Sell? [View article]
    Nice write up, Josh.

    Nomura Securities huh. I'm surprised they are still around. Didn't their swanky, glass office building get blown to pieces in the movie "Die Hard" ? ;)

    Warren Buffett made a general comment about security analyst reports. He said he only reads analyst reports when he needs a laugh.

    oboist1
    Sep 4, 2014. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Wins By Losing [View article]
    The reason BAC decided to settle is straight forward. BAC and the DOJ were headed to court. The DOJ's costs are payed by federal taxes - endlessly deep pockets indeed. BAC would pay more legal fees and be portrayed by the media as an evil, greedy bank. All that bad publicity would cost BAC time, distraction form its core businesses, legal costs and lost customers.

    What is amazing is BAC's ability to pay all these fines - some $70 billion so far. That is concrete evidence of BAC's future earning power.
    Aug 22, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Classic [View article]
    Thanks Mr. Arora. Just a great comparison of core existing and future BBRY hardware.

    From all my reading on BBRY it appears Chen is listening to his business customer needs. That the CEO performed "market research" directly with his customers is a good indication he is serious about turning the ship around while minimizing risk.

    There is another important dynamic. When a successful and straight-talking CEO like Chen reaches out to business customers, he is also saying BBRY is not going away. I think that is a core reason why many customers abandoned BBRY. They thought BBRY and its support system were going under. It will take a while, but Chen will gradually change business and market perception. Later, the profits will likely follow.

    oboist1
    Aug 14, 2014. 07:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Positive Implications Of The Fine Imposed [View article]
    alance - No offense taken at all. I have been reading extensively on BAC for over 3 years. In my mind an article in SA that concludes the settlement is done deal, I think "well we knew that was coming". I just don't care if the author's research pointed toward a conclusive time and amount. The market has already discounted a roughly $16 B. settlement in 2014 - so who cares ? ;) Anyway, I am glad there are dedicated folks like you keeping the SA writers on their toes. That is a great service. Thank you. - oboist1
    Aug 13, 2014. 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Positive Implications Of The Fine Imposed [View article]
    Read my entire comment. It states the unannounced settlement is being negotiated. Sure the final amount is unpleasant to shareholders. But a final settlement of +/- 1 billion and the timing is not important for a long term investor.

    If anyone is so worried about future small settlements or court decisions at one of the largest banks in the country, they should not be an investor in the stock market. Large institutions are always subject to litigation risk.

    Asked "Why do you rob banks ?", Willie Sutton said "Because that's where the money is".

    After BAC clears up the DOJ settlement, the other settlements will be small by comparison. Compared to BAC future earning power, those settlements will be minor irritations.

    At the May 6, 2014 BAC Annual Meeting (WSJ Article, 5/7/14):

    "Another shareholder, Judith Koenick, asked why Mr. Moynihan should get a raise when the stock is down in 2014. In February, the bank boosted Mr. Moynihan's salary and bonus 17%, to $14 million for 2013, rewarding its top executive for a year in which the bank posted its strongest annual profit since 2007. "With my entire net worth in this company…my interests are completely aligned with yours," Mr. Moynihan replied. Attendees applauded the line".

    Warren Buffett quote on BAC purchase - from a 4/14/14 article:

    “Bank of America is a strong, well-led company, and I called Brian to tell him I wanted to invest in it. I am impressed with the profit-generating abilities of this franchise, and that they are acting aggressively to put their challenges behind them. Bank of America is focused on their customers and on serving them well. That’s what customers want, and that’s the company’s strategy.”

    Published in the Berkshire Hathaway 2013 Annual Report, page 17:

    "Berkshire has one major equity position that is not included in the table: We can buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at any time prior to September 2021 for $5 billion. At year end these shares were worth $10.9 billion. We are likely to purchase the shares just before expiration of our option. In the meantime, it is important for you to realize that Bank of America is, in effect, our fifth largest equity investment and one we value highly."

    Buffett is not alone in his high regard for BAC. Go to GuruFocus and see for yourself the successful super investors who have commited money to BAC.

    If we want to have a discussion about an article being too definitive in its conclusions, that is fine. But, are we here to talk about semantics or are we here to make long term money while minimizing risk ? I'll take the latter.

    oboist1
    Aug 13, 2014. 01:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Apple, BlackBerry Already Is Bottoming Out [View article]
    What about this article from ZDNet today:

    http://zd.net/1r7vqF6

    I am not long or short. By far I am most concerned about another competitor creating a similar or disruptive security technology that effectively competes with BBRY.

    What is BBRY's moat against this competitive threat ? In all my reading on SA, I have not seen a single article that addresses this. Why ? Tech is notorious for come-out-of-nowhere disruptors.

    . And please, no bashers or cheer leaders. Just reasoned argument.

    oboist1
    Aug 12, 2014. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
33 Comments
98 Likes