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nervousFella

nervousFella
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  • Want to Avoid Blowing Up Like Paulson? Don't Forget Buffett's 2 Rules [View article]
    I think everyone did poorly in 2008. Moreover, with a portfolio the size of Buffet 's it 's tough to do risk management. Just imagine if he dumped his positions just because they reached a stop.
    Nov 2 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Myths That Will Pop the Gold Bubble [View article]
    The major deviation in that model is that there is no guarantee you will get that value in dollars back on expiry.
    I think at best gold can be considered an alternate currency. One make profit in trading in Euros, Yen or gold but at the end of the day, the profit has to be redeemed in local currency to buy that Cadillac.
    May 6 11:56 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs Will Be the Next Bubble That Bursts [View article]
    I think you have to look at what the stated intent of the ETF is first before such claims are made. Leveraged ETFs come right out and say that they try to capture the daily percentage move in the underlying. They were never intended to be a longterm investment vehicle. The USO was meant to capture the activity in the front month contract in WTI. Once again not a long term investment. These vehicles are meant to be traded in lieu of the actual futures contracts.
    Mar 24 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End of America? Not Quite [View article]
    Do you pay you pay for your gas and groceries with your gold and silver?
    Mar 7 03:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Middle East Uprising Sustain High Oil Prices? [View article]
    Once again, you are a welcome voice of rationalism. I shorted USO (via options) since there is a glut of WTI.
    Feb 22 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Bad Investment and Getting Worse, Part II [View article]
    I think the author makes some valid points. Gold appreciating recently had more to do with QE and fear. Since the first will come to an end and the second is easing, there is no strong reason to buy gold. Those pointing to Indian and Chinese investors should rethink the situation. This is not so much a broadening of the middle class as the increase of wealth amongst the educated. They will ask themselves how best to increase their wealth over the short to medium term NOT how to secure against a Western economic disaster.
    Feb 9 07:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Offer Clues to Gold's Direction [View article]
    The author has made calculations based upon certain assumptions which is allowed. Gaussian distribution are the standard as nearly all of the other distributions can be normalized. What distribution would you use?
    Feb 4 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Gold Love Low Inflation? [View article]
    There has been too much economic growth excluding gold for it to ever make a true come back. Why should a productive farmer not be able to purchase some ski 's and fly to Denver to go skiing for the lack of gold? Gold is considered the reserve currency because we left the gold standard less than a century ago AND a large population (China and India) value it. As that population matures (China loves it because of the demand suppressed by Mao only now released and India as a marriage tradition) and this population forgets, we are as a global community going to be LESS likely as to put a large percentage of our net worth into a nonperforming asset. I am not discussing any current situation, this a rebuttal to all of those who proclain the "ultimate" end of fiat. Ultimately, any productive populace will not limit themselves by the ownership of gold.
    Feb 4 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Gold Love Low Inflation? [View article]
    Either gold does not love fear or fear is not so plentiful. Gold 's recent rise was due to QE and as long as their isn 't some similar catalyst like rasising the debt ceiling, gold 's upside is limited.
    Feb 4 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Offer Clues to Gold's Direction [View article]
    Thank you for presenting an calculation on the direction besides "fiat is going to zero" or the "fear has subsided"
    Feb 3 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade the Underlying Theme Driving Gold, Not the Price of Gold [View article]
    I agree that the "increased demand" may be more indicative of "collapsing currency" rather than "strengthening economy". My question is how do you tell the difference. If the strength in metals IS due to to "collapsing currency" the gold thesis is correct BUT if it is a sign of "strengthening economy" then the opposite is likely to occur. I don 't see any evidence supporting EITHER story. Just because you like chanting about the death of the dollar, it doesn 't make it so.
    Feb 3 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade the Underlying Theme Driving Gold, Not the Price of Gold [View article]
    That 's the whole point, investing isn 't betting. If you are saying you don 't diversify, does that mean you go 100% into every "bet" you make?
    Feb 3 01:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade the Underlying Theme Driving Gold, Not the Price of Gold [View article]
    My understanding of the term "hard" assets in reference to commodities is that it is usable. If gold is a currency, no currency is hard. It is only as strong as the faith in it. As investors, we don 't live forever. If you were 70 years old in 1982 and took the attitude that gold is the only hard currency, by year 2000 you would have LOST money. Gold has only been a phenomenal story (again) since 2008.
    That is the whole point of market analysis. If one chant, were the final story, everyone NOT taking up the chant would be broke and then there woul be only one story. No point in doing market analysis. Those who traded bullish on gold last month lost money. People have made money in stocks, oil, real estate, AND gold. I 've heard projections that gold ends the year at 1600. If you buy gold now (say at 1360) ride it down to 1250 and back up to 1600, you only make 17%. If you wait until 1300 you make 23%.
    In regards, to the short trade, I am up 10% ROI on the week. That is a realized gain.
    If (and I 'll humor you WHEN) FIAT currency collapses, no one will take gold bullion in exchange for groceries. They will hoard the groceries for themselves.
    Case in point, Zimbabwe, during their currency collapse, they went to US dollars AND their death rate went down. Shameless plug seekingalpha.com/insta... .
    I don 't believe ANY band wagon will get us ANYWHERE.
    The rule is cautious investing, risk management and diversification.
    Feb 3 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade the Underlying Theme Driving Gold, Not the Price of Gold [View article]
    I don 't dispute your prediction long term. I would challenge the notion gold is a "hard asset". Base metals are indeed a hard asset and an increased demand for them indicates a STRENGTHENING of someone 's economy (if not everyone 's). Therefore, the strength in base metals would be an indication for a weakness in gold.

    Shameless plug seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Feb 3 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxas and Inflation are Draining Us [View instapost]
    I like conversing with (fellow) Canadians. We don 't take a hostile tone with comments and questions.. A gouge implies they are taking funds UNNECESSARILY; and given that I acknowledge that there are inefficiencies, yes they are taking (a little?) too much. Given the fine nation I enjoy, I would rather they take a little too much to provide what I have, than not enough, and not have the services.
    I remember reading a few months ago that a fire dept. in Arkansas let a house burn down because they hadn 't paid the fire tax or something. The victims argued they forget and would 've been willing to pay on arrival but the fire chief said if they allowed that, than people would only pay when they had a fire negating the risk distribution effect of the low fee.

    I sometimes question whether America actually does have fewer taxes. Certainly on the surface but then they have all these user fees, toll roads etc. And keep in mind that in collecting those fees, a chunk of that money goes to administrating the collection of those fees.
    I would rather have a blanket set of large taxes and fees that are then distributed to where it is needed. Yes, I don 't mind paying high gas prices to pay for healthcare or schools.

    I think if you look at the total tax bill and then look at what we ALL enjoy in return, you will find it is actually cheaper than our American equivalents.
    Feb 2 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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