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  • Maybe The Stock Market Isn't So Dumb - IBM Reaps A 6% Loss On A $156 Billion Investment [View article]
    I look forward to your next article. I will read your back list today. Another area for you to research, if you have time, since you have literary and analytical skills, is the effect of McKinsey on gutting the shareholder value of corporate America. I've now witnessed this at two different materials corporations. McKinsey does not understand capital intensive businesses and their cyclical nature. Nor does it value employee empowerment. One corporation was destroyed after McKinsey was done. I am witnessing the next transformation of synergies and reorganizations now at another corporation. I would enjoy a read from your perspective on the Catalyst effect of McKinsey on corporate America.
    Sep 9 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe The Stock Market Isn't So Dumb - IBM Reaps A 6% Loss On A $156 Billion Investment [View article]
    Peter,
    I've witnessed the same transformation in corporate culture when employed by a major chemical company during the same time periods. This was not just IBM. I suggest this was a cultural revolution that affected the mature industries during that time period. The share buyback as a way to increase shareholder value has been a mystery to me for a a number of years. I've read several explanations both attacking the strategy and defending it. A CEO has one real job: allocation of capital. If he believes the best investment is his own stock, that is a conundrum. You can't attack it, since he is charged with making the stock rise, and you have no way of knowing all his other investment options at that time. Holding on to capital in todays world is not considered a sound decision. You become a target for a takeover. Neither is liquidation of all debt, since you lose leverage. Even dividends get attacked as not being tax efficient to shareholders. I'm still trying to understand the "smart" use of capital in todays corporate environment by a CEO. Your thoughts?
    Thank you for writing a insiders view of IBM. It is an insightful article.
    Sep 9 09:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At German Pharma And Chemicals Company Bayer AG [View article]
    Jonathan,
    Nice review article on Bayer. I reviewed your recent articles, and i am researching or have positions in several companies you have written about. What concerns me with investing in Europe right now is the combination of financial problems and geopolitical problems that confront the entire region. Have you considered this in your short term horizon evaluations? For instance, Bayer will be sensitive to the collapse of the EU and losing business with Russia, and possibly China, if China sides with Russia in the current Ukraine war. Nestle has less sensitivity to both the Euro and business with Russia, but will suffer from a European market collapse as collateral damage. How do you separate the potential losers from the winners, both short term and with a several year horizon? I would be interested in your thoughts. Long Dow, CVX, Roche, NVS. Interested in Nestle.
    Thanks,
    Sam
    Sep 9 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Rayonier, But The Same Old Problem [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. I'll need to do more detailed research on the feedstock specificity. My thought process related more to the quality of the pulp staples required for Cellulose ethers of high quality, which was a strength for RYN. I need to study your observations on hardwood and softwood specific needs.
    Sep 2 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ur-Energy: A Perfect Pick For Global Renaissance Of Uranium Markets [View article]
    That said I am long URG and not CCJ...
    Why?
    Sep 1 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding TECO Energy's Operations, Acquisitions And Possible Divestitures [View article]
    A solid quantitative article. A detailed analysis of the industrial customer base and growth expectations would be a good indicator of the real growth potential over the next several years. Thanks.
    Aug 31 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Not Yet Past The Point Of Hard Decisions [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. Lots of info and references.
    Aug 27 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions For U.S. Stock ETF Bulls [View article]
    Thanks, Gary. A sane look at the market. Thanks for sharing your barbell strategy.
    Aug 23 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: An Undervalued Industry Leader [View article]
    The board of directors includes a member who is an expert in fillers for composite plastic applications. This would be a higher value, high volume market which leverages the quality and consistency of the RYAM product line. Qualification cycles for these products can be several years for automotive, specialty applications and defense industries. Based on the board member, I am assuming this market is being developed already and will contribute to a more diverse high value product line with a moat based on technical superiority to competitive products. The company has excess capacity, which if it is properly utilized, will turn RYAM into a money machine. Time will tell.
    Aug 23 07:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Rayonier, But The Same Old Problem [View article]
    Stephen, I expect the relationship with RYAM will provide a base load for pulp sales for the foreseeable future. This will help in production planning and securing higher margins on incremental sales opportunities. The RE along the i95 corridor will be a bonus when Florida finally gets back in a growth mode.I live in Florida, and the recovery in RE has really just started, good jobs for working class people are scarce, and many professionals are under employed. This will need to correct before a real recovery takes place in housing. I own RYN, since it provides commodity exposure and the dividend is well covered. The presentations by the CEO pre spinoff indicated a commitment to the same business model of growing dividends for RYN. I agree with your valuation. For me, it constitutes an alternative equity income stream, with some inflation protection based on commodity exposure. I anticipate it to display low volatility and little sensitivity to modest rising interest rates long term.
    Aug 22 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraft Foods: Time To Get Going [View article]
    Compare to Nestle before you make a decision to buy.
    Aug 18 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp - Everything Is Moving In The Right Direction For Long Investors [View article]
    REEality,
    Hard to dispute the math. Hopefully, they will be able to lower their costs, sell down their inventory, and increase production, while prices increase. Ah, not likely.
    This has been my worst performing purchase in a long time. I'm holding on now since it really constitutes a long horizon call, as pointed out by Shock Exchange. Any recovery really requires a trade embargo with China, similar to the current Russia / Ukraine trade embargo. That's a higher probability than the alignment of the four factors I've listed above.
    Aug 15 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hawaiian Electric, A Down And Out Utility Worth A Look [View article]
    JB,
    What will the recent expansion of Dow solar panels do to the profitability of HE? Will they be tolling excess power to other clients? Has there been a sensitivity analysis on the effect of rising interest rates on both the Utility segment and banking segment?
    Thanks,
    Sam
    Aug 14 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    My view as well. It's a preference, not a criteria.
    Aug 12 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash: Still Not Liking Market Fundamentals [View article]
    The geopolitical situation is a plus for all North American fertilizer producers. Both reliability of supply and currency stability are risk factors from the Middle East and Russia.
    Aug 7 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
115 Comments
97 Likes