Dr. Mason, your credentials are impeccable. My comment was simply that if you look at the collapse of the S&L, which you sound like you were in a policy or advisory role at that time, it resulted from borrowing with a short horizon, lending with a long horizon, and being squeezed out of existence when the tide turned on rates. When I read your article, you are endorsing the same strategy for SA readers, who are as a rule investing their own funds, not someone else's. Why would you view this as a "safe" investment?
Economic Malaise Not Affecting These Countries (Or Companies) [View article]
Mr. Shaefer: When you evaluate your portfolio positions, are you looking for a specific balance on income and appreciation? In portfolio construction, do you seek diversification across different sectors and just buy when valuations are favorable, or do you swing sectors based on sector fundamental valuations?
Thought you might find this interesting. A good history on the Stonegate / Paris Hills phosphate mine. Note the proximity to existing processing facilities and infrastructure.
I found this article on Phosagro. Based on the information I could cross check, this is well written, factual, and worth your time to read if you want to understand the global phosphate players and markets. It was focused on PhosAgro, yet I could not find a clear explanation of the pricing on the rock sold by Phosagro. There appears to be a dual pricing schedule, such that domestic sales are below $150 per ton (metric ton?) and outside Russia, the sales are handled by agents with paybacks that are not clearly disclosed. I'm not a financial analyst. Perhaps those of you with a good finance background can define the real price of rock sold by Phosagro.
Tomroc, the short answer to your last post, in my opinion, is that the North American phosphate producers have been attentive to maintaining reserves that are measured in decades. Some have reserves exceeding forty years. Loonman is on the money regarding Morocco. The country is about the size of Georgia, and their two mines look like the size of Rhode Island. No kidding. His 1000 year reserve figure is literal, not exaggerated. They control the sale of rock to maintain price, much the same way OPEC operates with oil. Their mining costs look like domestic US aggregate mining costs. They have no issues with mining reclamation, and the King makes all the decisions. No issues with congress, EPA or local politics. I listened to a presentation where they relocated a local village that was in the way of a deposit they wanted to develop. There was no vote or town hall discussion related in the presentation.
Loonman, our paths have most likely crossed. There is no easy way to email you from this site, since we are both anonymous, and I intend to stay that way. I'm not here to sell anything, recommend anything, or advise anyone. I just don't want bad information to influence an honest decision. I felt compelled to share the information that was in the public domain regarding this business, for the benefit of those using this site as an investing information source. I have never posted on phosphate or ammonia before this, since I'm still employed in Bone Valley. I be fading back to shadow status shortly. Take care.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
682 I agree with everything you say above about Canada and their support of natural resource development and political stability. The two best candidates for development are Agrium or PCS. Both Canadian companies, so all the reasons you state above. They would both have the wherewithal to develop and use the rock, with the blessing of Canada. No sour grapes here. I never heard of this develpment property until yesterday. The errors on the 30,000 feet view of the market from the OP caught my attention. I really did not look at the company until tomrox made a post. Ive offered an opinion on the processing done by Jacobs Engineering, which does very reputable work.
I offer no opinion on the financials or viability as requested above on either project. I'm not a financial analyst or project engineer. I offered Stonegate as a contrast to Arriane. Nevada is also comfortable with natural resource development, but this property is pretty close to an expensive community. "Not in my backyard" is a US motto for mining. So the public opinion will play a role in this mine. Agrium is a good example of a company that would compare these properties. I'd like to see you and Tomrox compare these two companies through the lens of a potential buyer like Agrium, which has an acidulation plant in place. I'd learn alot from each of you, which is why I read this site. Happy new year.
My experience on rock is the price is based on a P2O5 basis. The advantage of high assay is lower freight and higher throughput in the acidulation plant, assuming the material processes properly. I'll need to research the Russian rock for sales price. I haven't followed rock prices and don't know why someone would pay a 50% premium for this product. If I figure it out, I'll post it to this comment section.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
Tom, as I recall the IRR makes assumptions about ongoing capital investment and reinvestment returns. Look at a sensitivity analysis with a shorter mine life, if recovery from the mine is not correctly stated, or additional processing to remove chloride or magnesium, or an undesirable trace metal lowers recovery. The assay is great, the processing to 30% acid looked great, if you overlooked corrosion. The crystals on dihydrate gypsum were needles. These typically are slow filtering on a pan filter, unlike typical gypsum dihydrate clusters. Transportation commitments from the local government were a gravel road to a rail connection. This indicates that infrastructure could be a challenge, especially in winter. If Arrianne is Bo Derek, PCS will step up to the plate and develop the property. They have the means, the manpower, and the technical expertise to evaluate the business potential.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
tomrox98:
I took the time since your above comment to review the Jacobs acidulation report. Since you have a vested interest in this company, please note that high chloride levels will limit the sale of the rock in the United States. Chloride at the levels in this rock are not friendly to Stainless steel. Jacobs has this noted in the report. Another red flag is the need oxidize the attack tank to reduce corrosion. The source of this is not identified in the report. There is no report on the levels of RCRA metals in this rock in the Jacobs report that I could find. These are likely all addressable issues, they will require additional processing of the rock or acid, which will add to the final cost of the fertilizer. Canada is natural resource friendly, so if this deposit is economically viable, it will be developed. I wish you the best, sir.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
"The higher the concentrate in a product, the less pricey sulfuric acid required to create phosphoric acid - which produces a superior product and a higher price can be obtained for the rock"
Incorrect. Impurities do not define sulfuric acid consumption. Silica does not consume sulfuric acid. Impurities such as cadmium, arsenic, and mercury can be present in high significant quantities in high grade deposits. "North America is self-sufficient in potash and nitrogen, but not phosphate - without phosphate, the "bread basket to the world" cannot produce abundant crops"
Incorrect. North America is a net exporter of phosphate, and was the major supplier of global production, prior to the development of Morrocan deposits. Ammonia is a net import for the united States at this time, due to rationalization of production due to high natural gas prior to development of frac gas. This is rapidly changing, with new capacity being announced each month, driven by corn based ethanol and low natural gas pricing.
There is no shortage of phosphate deposits. Morocco has a 200 year mine life in proven reserves, Saudi Arabia has just brought on a huge phosphate complex, and South America is developing reserves for their own domestic use. Use of phosphate per acre is dropping through better agricultural practices.
Gary Gordon Positions For 2013: Alternative ETF Strategies For Everyday Portfolios [View article]
Thank you, Mr. Gordon. An interesting contrast on fixed income allocation with Mr. Swedroe. Different views from professionals is the best part of Seeking Alpha. Many of us appreciate the time you take to share your process. Sam
Invest In U.S. Treasuries [View article]
Invest In U.S. Treasuries [View article]
Economic Malaise Not Affecting These Countries (Or Companies) [View article]
Mr. Shaefer:
When you evaluate your portfolio positions, are you looking for a specific balance on income and appreciation? In portfolio construction, do you seek diversification across different sectors and just buy when valuations are favorable, or do you swing sectors based on sector fundamental valuations?
Thank you for a well constructed article.
Sam
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
Thought you might find this interesting. A good history on the Stonegate / Paris Hills phosphate mine. Note the proximity to existing processing facilities and infrastructure.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
I found this article on Phosagro. Based on the information I could cross check, this is well written, factual, and worth your time to read if you want to understand the global phosphate players and markets. It was focused on PhosAgro, yet I could not find a clear explanation of the pricing on the rock sold by Phosagro. There appears to be a dual pricing schedule, such that domestic sales are below $150 per ton (metric ton?) and outside Russia, the sales are handled by agents with paybacks that are not clearly disclosed. I'm not a financial analyst. Perhaps those of you with a good finance background can define the real price of rock sold by Phosagro.
Tomroc, the short answer to your last post, in my opinion, is that the North American phosphate producers have been attentive to maintaining reserves that are measured in decades. Some have reserves exceeding forty years. Loonman is on the money regarding Morocco. The country is about the size of Georgia, and their two mines look like the size of Rhode Island. No kidding. His 1000 year reserve figure is literal, not exaggerated. They control the sale of rock to maintain price, much the same way OPEC operates with oil. Their mining costs look like domestic US aggregate mining costs. They have no issues with mining reclamation, and the King makes all the decisions. No issues with congress, EPA or local politics. I listened to a presentation where they relocated a local village that was in the way of a deposit they wanted to develop. There was no vote or town hall discussion related in the presentation.
Loonman, our paths have most likely crossed. There is no easy way to email you from this site, since we are both anonymous, and I intend to stay that way. I'm not here to sell anything, recommend anything, or advise anyone. I just don't want bad information to influence an honest decision. I felt compelled to share the information that was in the public domain regarding this business, for the benefit of those using this site as an investing information source. I have never posted on phosphate or ammonia before this, since I'm still employed in Bone Valley. I be fading back to shadow status shortly. Take care.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
I agree with everything you say above about Canada and their support of natural resource development and political stability. The two best candidates for development are Agrium or PCS. Both Canadian companies, so all the reasons you state above. They would both have the wherewithal to develop and use the rock, with the blessing of Canada.
No sour grapes here. I never heard of this develpment property until yesterday. The errors on the 30,000 feet view of the market from the OP caught my attention. I really did not look at the company until tomrox made a post. Ive offered an opinion on the processing done by Jacobs Engineering, which does very reputable work.
I offer no opinion on the financials or viability as requested above on either project. I'm not a financial analyst or project engineer. I offered Stonegate as a contrast to Arriane. Nevada is also comfortable with natural resource development, but this property is pretty close to an expensive community. "Not in my backyard" is a US motto for mining. So the public opinion will play a role in this mine. Agrium is a good example of a company that would compare these properties. I'd like to see you and Tomrox compare these two companies through the lens of a potential buyer like Agrium, which has an acidulation plant in place. I'd learn alot from each of you, which is why I read this site.
Happy new year.
My experience on rock is the price is based on a P2O5 basis. The advantage of high assay is lower freight and higher throughput in the acidulation plant, assuming the material processes properly. I'll need to research the Russian rock for sales price. I haven't followed rock prices and don't know why someone would pay a 50% premium for this product. If I figure it out, I'll post it to this comment section.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
Compare the financial analysis of this deposit to Arrianne.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
Current price for phosphate rock is under $200 per ton. I'm assuming that is ton- P2O5.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
I took the time since your above comment to review the Jacobs acidulation report. Since you have a vested interest in this company, please note that high chloride levels will limit the sale of the rock in the United States. Chloride at the levels in this rock are not friendly to Stainless steel. Jacobs has this noted in the report. Another red flag is the need oxidize the attack tank to reduce corrosion. The source of this is not identified in the report. There is no report on the levels of RCRA metals in this rock in the Jacobs report that I could find. These are likely all addressable issues, they will require additional processing of the rock or acid, which will add to the final cost of the fertilizer. Canada is natural resource friendly, so if this deposit is economically viable, it will be developed. I wish you the best, sir.
Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar [View article]
Incorrect. Impurities do not define sulfuric acid consumption. Silica does not consume sulfuric acid. Impurities such as cadmium, arsenic, and mercury can be present in high significant quantities in high grade deposits.
"North America is self-sufficient in potash and nitrogen, but not phosphate - without phosphate, the "bread basket to the world" cannot produce abundant crops"
Incorrect. North America is a net exporter of phosphate, and was the major supplier of global production, prior to the development of Morrocan deposits. Ammonia is a net import for the united States at this time, due to rationalization of production due to high natural gas prior to development of frac gas. This is rapidly changing, with new capacity being announced each month, driven by corn based ethanol and low natural gas pricing.
There is no shortage of phosphate deposits. Morocco has a 200 year mine life in proven reserves, Saudi Arabia has just brought on a huge phosphate complex, and South America is developing reserves for their own domestic use. Use of phosphate per acre is dropping through better agricultural practices.
Gary Gordon Positions For 2013: Alternative ETF Strategies For Everyday Portfolios [View article]
Sam
An Easy Retirement Portfolio Anyone Can Build On Their Own [View article]
Dig This: 9.7% Brigus Gold Convertible Bonds, Mature In 2016 [View article]
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