Lucmee

The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes

The Great Distraction

loscuatroojos.com/2007.../


On Feb 26 11:53 AM Carneades wrote:

> The Fed's Maginot Line
> In 1939, the French completed construction of the Maginot Line, a
> truly massive undertaking that sought to fortify the border between
> France and Germany. The Maginot Line was built in response to the
> traumatic events of WW1, as well as the looming threat of Germany.
> In theory, the Line would serve as an impregnable wall of defense,
> negating any possibility of a German invasion. The finished product
> did not disappoint, and succeeded in providing the French with a
> certain peace-of-mind regarding their national security.
>
> Unfortunately, in1940 the Germans launched an offensive codenamed
> "cut-of-the-sickle", in which they invaded Belgium at the weakest
> available point, circumvented the entire Maginot Line, and invaded
> France via the Belgian border. German troops quickly advanced upon
> Paris, and the city fell with minimal real resistance.
>
> We would submit to our readers that the Fed has constructed its own
> figurative Maginot Line for the equity markets at the approximate
> lows of the bear market that ended in 2003. This level marks an extreme
> support for the markets, a powerful breaching of which could ultimately
> send the equity markets to multi-decade lows. With the abolition
> of defined pension plans, the retirement savings of millions of Americans
> are tied up in 401k's that primarily invest with a long strategy.
> A continued deflation of equity prices would force millions of Americans
> to put retirement on hold. We see the same panicked behavior in the
> Government's response to declining housing values. These too are
> a necessary part of the equation.
>
> Aside from the issue of delayed retirement would be the widespread
> recognition that the decades-long trend of ever increasing wealth
> and prosperity has largely been an illusion. The opiate of continued
> asset inflation has made the average American numb to the crumbling
> fundamentals of the economy. We hold that the Government/Fed have
> a vested interest in the doling of that opiate to the masses, as
> it keeps the citizenry happy and preoccupied with the accumulation
> of material objects, all the while oblivious to reality.
>
> TheValueatRisk.blogspo...

The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes

Hear! Hear!


On Feb 24 10:41 AM Herschel wrote:

> THERE ARE NO JOBS. This Depression, or whatever you want to call
> it, will persist as long as American workers cannot get jobs. A
> component of the cause of this Depression was outsourcing of good-paying
> American jobs, coupled with the importation of immigrants (on H-1b
> visas, other visas, and even illegals) so that employers could **fire
> and replace*** American workers.
>
> During 2001 - 2008, the US lost 25% of its manufacturing base. There's
> the trouble.
>
> We have millions of American citizens, who formerly worked hard and
> earned a decent living. People like me, who earned degrees in engineering,
> or computer science, or whatever, and worked in their fields for
> years. We were good at our jobs. Then Bush got elected, signed
> trade agrements, and our jobs were sent to India. We were told to
> become janitors or flip burgers.
>
> As a result, many people couldn't pay their mortgages or credit cards,
> and it contributed to the mess.
>
> THERE ARE NO JOBS.
>
> We have no way to recover. There are no jobs. We have skilled industrious
> people with nothing to do except post on message boards. THERE ARE
> NO JOBS. Bush sent them to India and China.
>
> IBM has been firing Americans and then offering them jobs in India.
> Check it out.
>
> THERE ARE NO JOBS.
>
> I chuckle when I see people complaining about all the unemployed
> Americans who don't contribute anything. People talk about "those
> who add to the pile (of production) and those who just take stuff
> off the pile." Guess what? I would be very glad to produce. I would
> like to work my rear end off. THERE ARE NO JOBS. My career got
> sent to India, and there is nothing else to do.
>
> The United States will never be a good country again. We don't have
> enough jobs to feed our people. We cannot support our population,
> because there are not enough jobs. There is nothing to do.
>
> I defy anyone to point out companies that are actually in strong
> hiring mode, for real jobs at substantial wages, who will hire people
> that don't have a strongly specialized background for that particular
> industry. NOTE: I had a strong background for my industry, and my
> industry was outsourced. I have nothing to do. I want to work.
> But: THERE ARE NO JOBS.
>
> How can a country that doesn't produce anything be prosperous? How
> can you put millions of people out of work, and expect to prosper?
>
>
> Millions of Americans are going to **STARVE TO DEATH***. There are
> no jobs.
>
> If you don't agree -- show me the jobs!!!

When Unemployment Peaks, The Bottom Should Follow

The stimulus will kick in... But will not be enough to sustain a recovery.

Given the population densities involved (just in North America, mind you)... The only way to put immediate, sustainable money into consumer's pockets is to create manufacturing jobs for low end consumer products. This will require bringing back a whole passel of the jobs that never should have been shipped overseas in the first place.

Trying to exist within a service and investor type economy was the height of madness. The old communist saw about selling the capitalists the rope that they would use to hang themselves has come all too true. Greed and corruption has decimated the middle class to the point that they can't sustain themselves ...Let alone the national (and by osmosis, global) economic scheme.

The options are quite simple at this point:

1. Reduce the population by 75% (unthinkable)
2. Go into full on protectionist mode. (untenable)
3. Endure a decades long depression which will ultimately achieve options one and two.

Oh yeah... There is one more option:

4. Massive international cooperation on energy, infrastructure and economic practice reforms with an unwavering goal of creating a vibrant global middle class capable of generating enough churn to keep a global economic engine firing.

But that's just crazy talk.

Hope you're all stocked up on beans, rice and spam.

The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes

Due to the waffling and politicizing of the situation... The upshot is that currently, there is nothing that can prevent a 3 -10 year worldwide depression. China looks to be the country most favorably positioned to emerge from the darkness first. Unless the USA can reconcile its population density with the fact that it's manufacturing base is severely eroded... Tough times are ahead for rich and poor. Even a big war is less of a solution these days than in the past. Gold and other tangibles aren't even sure bets at this point.
The banks and Wall St. can't be blamed for trying to cover up the corpse for the past couple of years... Doing so kept the country from a full fledged panic given the terrorism paranoia. But by letting the downturn catch so many unawares... The problems are definitely going to be exacerbated.
Given the current internecine warfare in Washington... The best bet at this time will be to take paper assets and convert them to food, supplies and a dependable vehicle that one can put to work.

How the iPhone and Poor Management Contribute to Apple's Downfall

Andy... A lot of words and charts to say that you think that AAPL should be priced where the hedgers, etc. think it should be. In an erratic market compounded by a sinking economy, this would be a good strategy for a short timer or someone desperate to raise quick cash. But to anybody looking long term; the key is Apple's cash on hand and product viability.
Cash on hand is a given... As to viability... AAPL products are increasingly being recognized as higher quality with better resale value than it's competitor's. (see eBay and Craigslist)... This will serve AAPL well in the long run as people look to cut back on and consolidate their gadget purchases. A Macbook with a Windows partition equals two computers. An iPhone is still the closest thing to a real computer that you can put in your pocket. What's not to like from a consumer standpoint?

Throw away all of the pish-posh and rigamarole and think like a cash strapped consumer, and Apple still maintains a level share of sales... In that case... Flat means sales aren't falling. Add to that APPL's margins and one can clearly see that they can afford to comfortably cut prices if times get really hard and still keep consumers eyes turned towards their products. Cachet and Quality. Apple has those in spades.

Long story short... AAPL will weather the coming economic storm better than the vast majority of it's competition.

Look for a low of 60 due to the economy by mid year. Then jump in with both feet. Anybody that got in between 75 and 85 should be looking at the long haul... But shouldn't be too worried. If you got in over 85... Well ... You'd best be real patient.

This Is What the End of the Line Looks Like

to mc2406's comment... Really?!? the credit card company's wouldn't think of raping and pillaging to maximize profit as long as there's no real regulation? Dream on! You can go on grousing about "personal responsibility" all you want... But the reality is that the national daughter is already preggers!.. Let's get ready for the baby. A cap of 6-10% is what's called for in order to let some debt be paid down and for people to start to spend again. But I don't think anyone sees the banks voluntarily lowering rates. The more repugnant option is to make all that credit card interest deductible. The return of deductibility of car loan interest is a viable idea at this point also. The old Nixonian wage and price freezes may be just around the corner too. I predicted 10 months ago that we'd be hearing noises about changing oil pricing to euros around the 1st qtr of '09... Anyone want to bet a beer?


On Dec 17 12:55 PM mc2406 wrote:

> If people hadn't been continually defaulting on their credit card
> debts, the rates wouldn't be exhorbitant.
>
> The only thing "destroying this country" economically is the lack
> of personal responsibility for one's own debts (live within your
> means???)that many Americans (and corporations) are exhibiting, and
> the support that our professional politicians give to it in order
> to get more votes and perpetuate their jobs.
>
>
>
>
> On Dec 17 10:42 AM g.pincheot wrote:

Real Disposable Income Up in Q2

I suspect that disposable income is up due to the fact that a lot of folks are no longer paying mortgages... therefore they've got a few bucks to go out and buy the odd bag of groceries and bottle of booze. And if you've got no house... An iPhone and a laptop are the way to go...Huh?

Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

Seems to me that the emotion that's unleashed any time anyone makes a comment that is in the least way negative regarding Apple is indicative of the loyalty that any company would kill for. But take off the rose colored glasses folks! .. No one is as big a fan boy of Apple as I am... And I for one realize that there are serious considerations to having a company that is to a very high degree... personality driven... No matter how many insults you hurl... Steve is a mortal man... And should he become incapacitated or worse... I ... and the stock would be devastated.
Additionally... One should not be so centric in their world view that one discounts completely the possibility that somewhere, sometime, somehow... Someone is going to come up with an iPod killer. The fact is... That even something as simple as if a nation like China should decide to say the heck with patents and copyrights and decide to market exact clones of ALL the Apple products and flood world markets with them.
The fact that exactly NONE of these products is manufactured in the US makes it entirely possible in the face of potential conflict over energy and resources.... And speaking of which... It's nice that so many people can find the time to rant and rave about whether or no Apple is "invulnerable" ... When Apple is in the same boat as any other American tech giant in that it maintains absolutely no manufacturing capability on it's home shores. Simple minds see simple things.

False Data Clobbers the Markets

Folderol & Flatulence!! Anybody with an ounce of sense can see that the "real" unemployment numbers are significantly above what's reported due to the fact that those that run out of benefits drop completely off of the radar... And job creation numbers are fictional in that a person who was making $25/hr and now makes $9/hr is still considered fully employed without taking into consideration the impact on that person's spending patterns. I certainly don't blame anyone who's significantly invested in any kind of market for climbing on the nearest soapbox and saying whatever they feel necessary to protect their nest eggs... But that won't stop the chickens from ultimately coming home to roost. And as to Apple.. As much of a fanboy that I am... If Jobs is aware of his real or potential health issues and doesn't have a strong succession plan in place... Then Apple will pay the price for having been a personality driven company...C'est la vie. As to Oil... the truth is that it's getting harder to get the stuff out of where it's at... While you may smell a buck or three's profit in that fact... Remember that you may eat that profit up paying the resultant high fuel prices, along with the attendant commodity price hikes. Additionally... China and India will definitely produce a burgeoning middle class that will produce greater stresses upon the current resources... ergo.... The USA will have to adjust to using a more sensible share of resources than it's currently used to. This will be looked upon as hardship and jingoists will squawk that the the USA is "entitled" to the easy life... And there will lie the rub... There will either be conflict or cooperation... And the markets will ultimately reflect whichever path is taken.

What's Better: BlackBerry or iPhone?

Hey J. Laze
Didn't you have to register to comment... I did? Just by posting this article ...Wayne put himself out there as at least an authority if not an expert... He deserves everything he gets if he insists on producing uneducated spew... You're right in stating that Apple enthusiasts are a bit sensitive to people slamming the obviously superior product line... But your calling passionate people idiotic also pushes a certain level of decency.

What's Better: BlackBerry or iPhone?

Wayne...
C'mon man... You should have at least researched your story before leaping in front of the locomotive that is Apple users offended by inaccurate drivel... Why do we see this over and over? Some uninformed hack will try to make a name for himself by denigrating a product that the market has proven to be a winner by repeating tired and unfounded old wives tales likely put out by the desperate competition. And ends up getting his head handed to him by what history has proven time and time again to be the most passionate and well informed (about their product) users in the world... What reasonably informed person doesn't know that the iPhone has the highest satisfaction ratings out there?... Do you think that anyone paying >$300 for their unit and getting delicate junk is not screaming blue bloody murder? And your pseudo - quasi -pretentious use of the so, so last year's "Brickberry" and "Crackberry" mark you as a poser who is in it for the show of it... Anyone who's used an iPhone for more than 48 hours and doesn't get the implications of the web experience on handset computing is suffering from a true deficit of cognitive function.... How many IT folks out there are getting steamrolled into finding a way to make the iPhone work for enterprise because the bigwigs at the top are finding it the right thing to make them more productive? Nothing against earning your pay man... But at least give your corporate masters their money's worth.

Apple Customers Actually Come First

Oh Paul! Neophytes?!?! Don't be truculent... Most creative types and nearly all media and publishing houses use Apple equipment.. . And seeing as Apple seems to be the fastest...nay ... only make of computer that can boast huge gains in desktop and laptop sales... Don't you think it's a bit elitist and bitter sounding to call so many people neophytes?... Please ...pray tell...What makes your needs so special that something in Apples lineup won't meet your needs.... Can't be rocket science... Because I personally know several that are happy Apple "neophytes"... As are several research and theoretical scientists I know. There are any number of mainstream and specialty publications that would beg to differ on your claim of "value" when it comes to Apple products in comparison to "multiple" hardware sources.... Churlish is not pretty.

Wanted, Dead or Alive: The iPhone Killer

The iphone will continue to be the 1st choice item in smart phones due to the same reason the ipod dominates music players... hardware & software integration. The only thing holding the iphone back from taking out BB is AT&T... Lots of folks look at it and want it but don't want to be stuck with AT&T... By the time some company comes out with real competition for the current model... Apple will be bringing out the next innovation... a la ipod. I suspect that there will be a major bump in iphone sales as soon as AT&T's exclusivity is gone... It's also a good bet that the other carriers are making plans to tweak their networks to meet Apple's specs in order to serve iphone customers ASAP when the time comes.

Why iPhone Unlocking is Growing Every Day

I suspect Apple could give less than a flying fig about unlockers as long as they buy the phone legally... I'm sure Apple looks at the iPhone the same way they originally looked at the iPod... "If They Use It ...They Will Come"... Over to Macintosh that is. Use an iPhone... You're bound to be looking at a Mac the next time you're in the market for a computer. Even though they removed "Computer" from the company shingle... Computers is what they do and will remain the core of the business for the foreseeable future. Besides..What better stick to beat the other carriers over the head with when the AT&T contract runs it's course?... Can you hear Steve now?... "Look at all the folks using iPhones on your network now...Don't you want all the features to work?" Remember... Apple's mantra is customer experience... They'd rather build the market so that it becomes imperative that the carrier toe the line for features and ease of use... AT&T jumped on that bandwagon and got rewarded with exclusivity for a bit... Apple will be tickled pink to sell iPhones to anybody that wants one once the carriers get on board with the feature support.... I suspect they calculated 5 years as optimal to make this happen.

Only Tax Cuts Will Work in the Long Run

Cut taxes!.. Cut Taxes! When are people going to figure out that it's taxes that build infrastructure and fund research initiatives? You like potholes and crumbling bridges? Don't pay taxes... You'll really like it when your local sewage plant blows a major gasket because it wasn't maintained due to cuts in taxes. The interstate system... It's 50 years old... We don't need to work on that... Let's cut taxes!... Our national rail system?... Envy of the world!.. We don't need to work on that. Cut taxes for big business and they'll create more jobs!... Where ... India?

Shut up about cutting taxes already!.. We're a trillion dollars in debt... Our infrastructure reeks and real meaningful jobs haven't been created in large numbers in this country in over two decades. Raise taxes on every corporation that has more overseas workers than U.S. workers... Set up a flat tax and use the money to pay down the debt and create jobs rebuilding the nations infrastructure.