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Snoopy1

Snoopy1
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  • Putting The Gold Selloff Into Perspective [View article]
    @Ninja,

    Yeah, lots of gold bugs were saying that same thing a year ago, and a year before that...

    I remember gold bugs were saying in 2011 that people should have at least 10-20% of their net worth in gold. The stock market has crushed gold since then, but the gold bugs keep on claiming that gold will come back. I'm sure gold bugs were saying that in the mid-80s too.

    How do you value gold? Be specific. I have never heard a reasonable metric except for the cost of mining it, although jewelry does create some demand.

    "[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”
    -- Warren Buffett
    Nov 1, 2014. 01:56 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting The Gold Selloff Into Perspective [View article]
    Now if Peter Shiff will ever admit he was wrong a few years ago when he claimed gold would reach $5,000/oz , that would be something!
    Oct 31, 2014. 03:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boutique investment firm sours on payments sector [View news story]
    The idiot analyst is probably now looking for any 3% dip to upgrade. Classic example of not understanding the big picture!
    Oct 30, 2014. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crown Castle: Activist Could Get Us A Higher Dividend [View article]
    Using the company's press release, it looks like Corvex's analysis was unrealistically bullish as I thought. Compared to Corvex's $5 2015 AFFO, mgmt is guiding to only $4.35 AFFO, although this is probably conservative. Disheartening was mgmt's comment that dividends would grow in line with AFFO which indicated the payout ratio will not be bumped up in medium term.

    Assuming 2016 AFFO of $5.05 (vs. Corvex's $5.60), 75% payout ($3.80 dividend) and 4% yield, that gives a 15 month target of $95. Not a bad return, but nowhere close to Corvex's fantasy $128/share (35% higher).
    Oct 30, 2014. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crown Castle: Activist Could Get Us A Higher Dividend [View article]
    Nice summary, but one point. Corvex believes the shares can reach $100 not by the end of 2015 but in the next few months (after mgmt announces a higher div policy) and $128 by the end of 2015 (15 months).

    I think a more realistic 15 month target is $95 assuming $5.40 2016 AFFO. Mgmt will likely move to a 70-75% payout and the stock should trade at a 4.00-4.25% yield (not Corvex's fantasy 3.5%) with higher interest rates now that the Fed stopped QE.
    Oct 29, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google misses by $0.18, misses on revenue [View news story]
    I think it's like Visa, it had a nice run, got overbought and has been readjusting to a more realistic valuation. With this correction, I expect GOOG to have good risk-adjusted returns going forward.
    Oct 16, 2014. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boutique investment firm sours on payments sector [View news story]
    I agree. Even assuming slower growth, V and MA are still probably worth about 20x P/E given their wide moats, good economics, strong FCF and a still powerful growth story in the global conversion of cash/checks to credit.
    Oct 16, 2014. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google downplays spending growth, talks up mobile progress [View news story]
    What do you think normalized FCF is for GOOG as a % of net income?
    Oct 16, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Rated Rotten, $31 Price Target, As It Puts The 'Brakes' On Russia [View article]
    "I would guess that B has about twice his own personal money betting against GM or expecting it to remain flat for some time to come."

    Wow, is that just something you say to ignore the reality that Berkshire increased it's GM position?
    Aug 25, 2014. 12:03 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa And MasterCard Will Win In Mobile Due To HCE [View article]
    Great update. Your article seems positive regarding HCE's impact on V and MA, but do you see any other technology risk to their payment "toll booths"? These two companies seem bulletproof investments with a low business risk profile but I fear I'm ignoring a competitive risk.

    Thanks in advance.
    Aug 22, 2014. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: High Dividend Growth Stock To Consider [View article]
    I agree, the easy money has been made.

    I think fiscal 2020 P/E should be closer to 16x ($320 5 year target) because of it's strong moat and good business economics but that still gives about 9% including dividends so it's pretty fairly valued at the current $216.

    As a long-term owner, I want over 12% so I layer on options. For each 100 shares, one buys a Jan 2016 210 call and sells two Jan 2016 240 (20x 2016 EPS) covered calls for zero net premium. This more than doubles the upside of the shares alone to $240 with a capped gain of 25% (17% annualized) as the effective Jan 2016 sale price is $270. This strategy is flexible as one can roll down the 210 call to 200, 190 or 180 strikes if V drops between now and expiration to increase potential appreciation.
    Aug 21, 2014. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 50 stocks that "matter most" to hedge funds [View news story]
    Exposure in terms of % weighting of equity holdings.
    Aug 21, 2014. 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50 stocks that "matter most" to hedge funds [View news story]
    Most hedge funds, despite their reputation, don't buy stocks that with excessive valuation. Very few hedge funds own these stocks based on 13F filings.
    Aug 21, 2014. 03:25 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Depot Is An Unwise Investment At These Prices [View article]
    So what would you do with those dividend payments since you clearly think HD is overvalued at $88 post Q2 earnings.
    Aug 20, 2014. 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Depot beats by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Very solid results. HD doing well despite the generally poor performance of retailers.
    Aug 19, 2014. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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