If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Thanks for the response Herr.
Agree with you that we may see some equity market consolidation over the next quarter and I'm keeping 20% cash for future opportunities. There was an article with Leon Cooperman and Steve Einhorn in Barron's this weekend sharing this same view.
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Herr - so what is the gestalt of your indicators saying?
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Buyandhold, what is a decent add price? I think 20x forward P/E which is $164 vs. the current 22x at $180. I already own V but plan to scale down at $170, $164 and $156.
"There are less ways to cheat on a balance sheet than an income statement," says Bruce Berkowitz, explaining why he focuses on the one rather than the other (and why he'll probably never be a buyer of auto stocks). In this great 35-minute chat from late last year, he again makes his case for AIG and BAC - "it's the 90s all over again" - and SHLD - selling for the liquidation value of its merchandise; the brands and the real estate are free. [View news story]
No, you're looking at the right fund (FAIRX) but I think you forgot to account for dividends/distributions.
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Impressive Returns Plus Impressive Dividend Hikes [View article]
RS,
I think in an up market, too many people look at returns vs. the benchmark without accounting for risk. Your portfolio looks to have below average risk so you're doing a great job - your alpha will likely increase if the market hits rougher waters.
I've managed a conservative equity portfolio since Feb 2008 and have done better in down and moderate market years and had slight outperformance in strong years. Over a cycle, the key is to preserve capital in down markets as reckless investing will eventually get you killed. As Buffett said: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
"There are less ways to cheat on a balance sheet than an income statement," says Bruce Berkowitz, explaining why he focuses on the one rather than the other (and why he'll probably never be a buyer of auto stocks). In this great 35-minute chat from late last year, he again makes his case for AIG and BAC - "it's the 90s all over again" - and SHLD - selling for the liquidation value of its merchandise; the brands and the real estate are free. [View news story]
Yeah, you can't be fooled looking at balance sheets! Wasn't Berkowitz the one that got killed with banks in 2008?
Invest Like A Rounder: Don't Give Anything Away [View article]
So what has been done on the national and state sales tax on internet purchases assuming the seller has no locations in that state? I'm fuzzy on developments in this area.
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Impressive Returns Plus Impressive Dividend Hikes [View article]
@RS - Good job on slightly beating the S&P500 with less risk and likely average 5% cash balance.
The key will come if we face a correction - you'll probably increase your lead based on your conservative holdings. Have you tracked your relative performance during bad quarters?
I agree with you that buying puts as a hedge drags down returns over time, and selling 5-10% OTM covered calls works well at market highs like now. You mentioned covered calls in the article, but have you utilized this strategy much over the past 18 months?
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Impressive Returns Plus Impressive Dividend Hikes [View article]
Sorry, but are both KKR and KFN set up so you need a K1?
In addition, RS - what stocks on your list do you current like most? I have 12% cash and am looking to put it to work over the next few months on any correction.
Amazon Is A Toll Bridge: Next Toll - Ads [View article]
Can you please give some some hard numbers as to your reasonable 5 year stock price?
Using assumptions for 2018: $160Bn in revenues (20%+ growth in 2014 and 15% thereafter) 5% net margins (WMT has 3.6%) 450M shares
That gives $18 EPS. Applying a 20x forward P/E gives a 5 year target of $360, which yields a 7% IRR based on today's $255 price. Not exactly a slam dunk.
I think F could be good 5-year investment as long as mgmt doesn't become complacent as it often does. The issue is whether the next CEO will be able to maintain this focus within the organization.
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Agree with you that we may see some equity market consolidation over the next quarter and I'm keeping 20% cash for future opportunities. There was an article with Leon Cooperman and Steve Einhorn in Barron's this weekend sharing this same view.
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). [View news story]
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Going Long In A Scary Market [View article]
Visa: Thesis Still Intact [View article]
"There are less ways to cheat on a balance sheet than an income statement," says Bruce Berkowitz, explaining why he focuses on the one rather than the other (and why he'll probably never be a buyer of auto stocks). In this great 35-minute chat from late last year, he again makes his case for AIG and BAC - "it's the 90s all over again" - and SHLD - selling for the liquidation value of its merchandise; the brands and the real estate are free. [View news story]
Morningstar 5 year annual returns (including distributions):
S&P500 4.83%
FAIRX 4.39%
Morningstar gives FAIRX a below average 2 star rating.
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Impressive Returns Plus Impressive Dividend Hikes [View article]
I think in an up market, too many people look at returns vs. the benchmark without accounting for risk. Your portfolio looks to have below average risk so you're doing a great job - your alpha will likely increase if the market hits rougher waters.
I've managed a conservative equity portfolio since Feb 2008 and have done better in down and moderate market years and had slight outperformance in strong years. Over a cycle, the key is to preserve capital in down markets as reckless investing will eventually get you killed. As Buffett said: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
Look forward to your two year update.
Invest Like A Rounder: Don't Give Anything Away [View article]
It must work or they couldn't advertise that it does, right? :-)
"There are less ways to cheat on a balance sheet than an income statement," says Bruce Berkowitz, explaining why he focuses on the one rather than the other (and why he'll probably never be a buyer of auto stocks). In this great 35-minute chat from late last year, he again makes his case for AIG and BAC - "it's the 90s all over again" - and SHLD - selling for the liquidation value of its merchandise; the brands and the real estate are free. [View news story]
Invest Like A Rounder: Don't Give Anything Away [View article]
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Impressive Returns Plus Impressive Dividend Hikes [View article]
The key will come if we face a correction - you'll probably increase your lead based on your conservative holdings. Have you tracked your relative performance during bad quarters?
I agree with you that buying puts as a hedge drags down returns over time, and selling 5-10% OTM covered calls works well at market highs like now. You mentioned covered calls in the article, but have you utilized this strategy much over the past 18 months?
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Impressive Returns Plus Impressive Dividend Hikes [View article]
In addition, RS - what stocks on your list do you current like most? I have 12% cash and am looking to put it to work over the next few months on any correction.
Amazon Is A Toll Bridge: Next Toll - Ads [View article]
Using assumptions for 2018:
$160Bn in revenues (20%+ growth in 2014 and 15% thereafter)
5% net margins (WMT has 3.6%)
450M shares
That gives $18 EPS. Applying a 20x forward P/E gives a 5 year target of $360, which yields a 7% IRR based on today's $255 price. Not exactly a slam dunk.
Invest Like A Rounder: Don't Give Anything Away [View article]
Einhorn plays poker and applies the same rule to investing - bet big on your best ideas, a.k.a. the Kelly Formula.
Buffett also thinks in probabilities and will make huge bets when the odds are nearly 100%. The GS and GE preferreds and warrants were sure things.
Ford Is Finding Its Groove [View article]